Are all distributions of risk with the same 95thpercentile equally acceptable?

When evaluating a probabilistic health risk assessment, say at a hazardous waste site, risk managers need a risk management policy that distinguishes an acceptable distribution of risks to individuals in a population from an unacceptable one. If a risk manager decides that the distribution of risk for the status quo is unacceptable, then a risk assessor needs a way to compute cleanup targets, i.e., the risk assessor needs a policy statement against which to estimate distributions of exposure point concentrations which, if engineered at a site, will achieve an acceptable distribution of risk. Some regulatory agencies base acceptability on whether the 95^th percentile of the risk distribution falls at or below a given value, without considering the behavior of the rest of the distribution. As regulatory agencies adopt risk management policies for use with probabilistic risk assessments, we recommend that they base their new policies on two simultaneously binding constraints‐one on an upper percentile and one on the arithmetic mean of the distribution of risk‐in addition to other non‐risk criteria.     

Laypeople's Health Concerns and Health Beliefs in Regard to Risk Perception of Mobile Communication

The consensus scientific view is that there is an absence of convincing scientific evidence for health risks of exposures to electromagnetic fields (EMF) at levels below those recommended in international guidelines. Nevertheless, some citizens are worried about EMF emitted by mobile communication and its consequences for health. The present study explored, by means of a mail survey, health concerns and the prevalence of health beliefs related to EMF in the general population. A random sample (n = 765, response rate 41%) of the German-speaking population in Switzerland was asked to assess various health beliefs. Results suggest that health concerns are widespread but lower than health concerns in regard to other hazards. About two-thirds of the respondents believed that some people suffer from electromagnetic hypersensitivity (EHS). Health beliefs items were analyzed using the Mokken scale. This scale was related to respondents' health concerns and showed that health beliefs differed in regard to sociodemographic variables. For example, analyses showed that females, younger respondents, and respondents who believed that some people are affected by EHS endorsed significantly more health beliefs than males, older respondents, and non-EHS respondents. Results indicate that it is important for policy-makers to develop a clear understanding of the possible effects of health beliefs on health concerns and risk perception. These findings may provide guidance for the further development of information materials and strategies.     

Bayesian Updating of Model-Based Risk Estimates Using Imperfect Public Health Surveillance Data

Model-based estimation of the human health risks resulting from exposure to environmental contaminants can be an important tool for structuring public health policy. Due to uncertainties in the modeling process, the outcomes of these assessments are usually probabilistic representations of a range of possible risks. In some cases, health surveillance data are available for the assessment population over all or a subset of the risk projection period and this additional information can be used to augment the model-based estimates. We use a Bayesian approach to update model-based estimates of health risks based on available health outcome data. Updated uncertainty distributions for risk estimates are derived using Monte Carlo sampling, which allows flexibility to model realistic situations including measurement error in the observable outcomes. We illustrate the approach by using imperfect public health surveillance data on lung cancer deaths to update model-based lung cancer mortality risk estimates in a population exposed to ionizing radiation from a uranium processing facility.     

Exploring the Determinants of the Perceived Risk of Food Allergies in Canada

Food allergies are emerging health risks in much of the Western world, and some evidence suggests prevalence is increasing. Despite lacking scientific consensus around prevalence and management, policies and regulations are being implemented in public spaces (e.g., schools). These policies have been criticized as extreme in the literature, in the media, and by the non-allergic population. Backlash appears to be resulting from different perceptions of risk between different groups. This article uses a recently assembled national dataset (n = 3,666) to explore how Canadians perceive the risks of food allergy. Analyses revealed that almost 20% self-report having an allergic person in the household, while the average respondent estimated the prevalence of food allergies in Canada to be 30%. Both of these measures overestimate the true clinically defined prevalence (7.5%), indicating an inflated public understanding of the risks of food allergies. Seventy percent reported food allergies to be substantial risks to the Canadian population. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed important determinants of risk perception including demographic, experience-based, attitudinal, and regional predictors. Results are discussed in terms of understanding emerging health risks in the post-industrial era, and implications for both policy and risk communication.     

美国、加拿大环境和健康风险管理方法

对目前美国和加拿大多个部门使用的风险评价与风险管理方法进行了全面回顾和综合分析,论述各种不同方法的特征,深入探讨各种管理方法的基础、利弊、使用经验,辨识环境、人类健康和职业健康风险综合方法中应该包含的要素,阐述风险管理目标的确定方法,以期为中国的环境风险管理提供经验。     

Health Security and Risk Aversion

Health security has become a popular way of justifying efforts to control catastrophic threats to public health. Unfortunately, there has been little analysis of the concept of health security, nor the relationship between health security and other potential aims of public health policy. In this paper I develop an account of health security as an aversion to risky policy options. I explore three reasons for thinking risk avoidance is a distinctly worthwhile aim of public health policy: (i) that security is intrinsically valuable, (ii) that it is necessary for social planning and (iii) that it is an appropriate response to decision‐making in contexts of very limited information. Striking the right balance between securing and maximizing population health thus requires a substantive, and hitherto unrecognized, value judgment. Finally, I critically evaluate the current health security agenda in light of this new account of the concept and its relationship to the other aims of public health policy.     

Assessing the Human,Social, and Environmental Risks of Pervasive Computing

The vision of Pervasive Computing is built on the assumption that computers will become part of everyday objects, augmenting them with information services and enhanced functionality. This article reports on the approach we have used to assess potential side effects of this development on human health and the environment, and the major risks we identified. Social risks such as the risk of conflicts between users and non-users of the technology were also included because of their potential indirect adverse health effects. Assessing a technological vision before it has materialized makes it necessary to deal with two types of uncertainty: first, the uncertainty of how fast and to what extent the technology will be taken up and how it will be used; second, the uncertainty of causal models connecting technology-related causes with potential health or environmental effects. Due to these uncertainties, quantitative methods to evaluate expected risks are inadequate. Instead, we developed a “risk filter” that makes it possible to rank risks according to a set of qualitative criteria based on the Precautionary Principle. As the overall result, it turned out that Pervasive Computing bears potential risks to health, society, and/or the environment in the following fields: Non-ionizing radiation, stress imposed on the user, restriction of consumers' and patients' freedom of choice, threats to ecological sustainability, and dissipation of responsibility in computer-controlled environments.     

城市化的生态风险及其管理

城市化体现在人口向城市聚集和城市景观扩张的同时,社会结构发生了极大变化,城市生产生活方式向更加广泛的地区扩散。然而,随着人口的过度密集和城市的日益扩张,交通拥堵、空气污染、废物堆积、流行病肆虐等"城市病"频发。城市通过大量汲取和消耗自然资源,向周围环境排放大量污染物,改变了区域生态系统的原有结构和功能,产生了严峻的生态风险,进而制约着城市生态系统的可持续发展。城市化的生态风险正逐步得到广泛关注,但对其具体的内涵和影响尚不明晰。归类描述了城市化过程中面临的各种生态风险,分析了导致生态风险的主要因素,阐述了辨识与评价生态风险的基本方法,提出了城市化生态风险的调控管理对策。     

Defining risk: Normative considerations

The public thinks about (i.e., defines) environmental human health risks in different terms than the “experts.”; And because the manner in which we conceive of risk goes a long way in determining how risk management is conceived and carried out, any definition of risk has important normative elements. I argue that environmental policy based on the public's conception of risk fails to adequately protect fundamental human rights to health and liberty, by taking undue account of certain psychological factors that enter into the public's perception of risk. A survey of some of these factors is offered in an attempt to determine their policy relevance. The traditional scientific conception of risk, although not adequate to entirely define risk policy, serves as an important anchor for the protection of these rights by focusing on the probability or number of adverse health effects.     

Finding fault with health risk assessment: A typology for risk assessment criticism

Although systematic, quantitative assessment of environmental health risks is a staple of regulatory decision-making, complaints regarding its perceived failures and shortcomings are an intrinsic feature of the policy landscape. In this article, we (a) catalog the classic criticisms of conventional health risk assessment, (b) create a typology that orders the critiques according to their focus on either input errors or output biases, and (c) identify selected allegations that fall within each category. We also note that the risk assessment–risk management paradigm has evolved over the past several decades, partially in accordance with the general direction and spirit of these classic critiques. The debate continues today along familiar lines invoking the traditional critiques and rebuttals outlined here.     

Integrated Risk Assessment — Results from an International Workshop

The World Health Organization's International Programme on Chemical Safety and international partners have developed a framework for integrated assessment of human health and ecological risks and four case studies. An international workshop was convened to consider how ecological and health risk assessments might be integrated, the benefits of and obstacles to integration, and the research and mechanisms needed to facilitate implementation of integrated risk assessment. Using the case studies, workshop participants identified a number of opportunities to integrate the assessment process. Improved assessment quality, efficiency, and predictive capability were considered to be principal benefits of integration. Obstacles to acceptance and implementation of integrated risk assessment included the disciplinary and organizational barriers between ecological and health disciplines. A variety of mechanisms were offered to overcome these obstacles. Research recommendations included harmonization of exposure characterization and surveillance methods and models, development of common risk endpoints across taxa, improved understanding of mechanisms of effect at multiple scales of biological organization, and development of methods to facilitate comparison of risks among endpoints.     

合成生物学生物安全风险评价与管理

合成生物学(synthetic biology)已迅速发展为生命科学最具发展潜力的分支学科之一,但它同时也会给生态环境和人类健康带来潜在的风险。结合国内外合成生物学发展现状,本文综述了基因回路(DNA-based biocircuits)、最小基因组(minimal genome)、原型细胞(protocells)、化学合成生物学(chemical synthetic biology)等涉及的风险评价、合成生物学与生物安全工程(biosafety engineering)、合成生物学对社会伦理道德法律的影响以及当前热点议题,如生物朋(黑)客(biopunk(or biohackery))、家置生物学(garage biology)、DIY生物学(do-it-yourselfbiology)、生物恐怖主义(bioterrorism)等方面的新进展。分析讨论了世界各国合成生物学以自律监管或技术为主的安全管理原则和基于5个不同政策干预点的5P管理策略的合理性与潜在不足。同时结合我国合成生物学当前研究进展以及现有的安全管理规范,提出了建立以安全评价为核心的法规体系、生物学生物安全规范以及加强研发单位内部管理和生物安全科普宣传等我国合成生物学安全管理制度与措施等建议。     

Derivation of Risk Management Criteria for Chemicals of Unknown Toxic Potency at Contaminated Sites

Environmental investigations of former industrial sites often detect the presence of chemicals for which no soil criteria exist and for which regulatory agencies have not derived estimates of toxic potency. This poses a considerable problem for making informed risk management decisions involving sites where such chemicals are present. As a result, a methodology has been developed for making risk-based decisions for chemicals of unknown toxic potency in soil at contaminated sites. The method is based on principles and procedures used by the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA), the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME). After analyzing the data on hundreds of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, the USFDA and other leading researchers have concluded that, if no toxicological data is available on a chemical, exposures less than 1.5?µg/person/day (i.e., 0.02?µg/kg body weight/day) are unlikely to result in appreciable health risks even if the substance was later found to be a carcinogen. To develop maximum soil concentrations that will be protective of human health (i.e., Risk Management Criteria or RMC), the above exposure limit of 0.02?µg/kg body weight/day has been assumed to be protective of risks from exposure to chemicals lacking toxicological data. Using a stochastic risk assessment model for estimating exposures to chemicals from contaminated sites, our analyses indicate that a soil concentration of 2?µg/g would be protective of human health for land uses that include residential, commercial, and industrial development provided no major indirect pathways exist at the site. If indirect pathways exists (e.g., vapor infiltration of soil gases, uptake of chemicals into garden produce, etc.), alternate RMC could be developed, that include such indirect pathways, using the methodology provided in this paper. Used by experienced risk assessors, the approach is a scientifically defensible screening method that will preclude many chemicals from unnecessary evaluation, while allowing risk assessors to focus efforts on chemicals of greater concern and make informed risk management decisions.     

Challenges for Risk Assessors

At the early part of the 21st century, occupational safety and health risk assessors face a variety of challenges. In addition to technical issues, the challenges for risk assessors include: assessment of risks of mixtures/and synergistic effects; incorporation of biological information into risk assessments; development of different ways of presenting risk information to better inform policy makers and the public; better expressions of uncertainty and assumptions; and harmonization of assessments across agencies and countries. All of these challenges will occur against a background of unfolding understanding of human and other genomes. Risk assessors will be motivated and pressured to use genomic and related technologies, but ethical, social, and technical issues need to be addressed before widespread use.     

The use of biomarkers in surveillance, medical screening, and intervention

Building on mechanistic information, much of molecular epidemiologic research has focused on validating biomarkers, that is, assessing their ability to accurately indicate exposure, effect, disease, or susceptibility. To be of use in surveillance, medical screening, or interventions, biomarkers must already be validated so that they can be used as outcomes or indicators that can serve a particular function. In surveillance, biomarkers can be used as indicators of hazard, exposure, disease, and population risk. However, to obtain rates for these measures, the population at risk will need to be assessed. In medical screening, biomarkers can serve as early indicators of disease in asymptomatic people. This allows for the identification of those who should receive diagnostic confirmation and early treatment. In intervention (which includes risk assessment and communication, risk management, and various prevention efforts), biomarkers can be used to assess the effectiveness of a prevention or control strategy as well as help determine whether the appropriate individuals are assigned to the correct intervention category. Biomarkers can be used to provide group and individual risk assessments that can be the basis for marshalling resources. Critical for using biomarkers in surveillance, medical screening, and intervention is the justification that the biomarkers can provide information not otherwise accessible by a less expensive and easier-to-obtain source of information, such as medical records, surveys, or vital statistics. The ability to use validated biomarkers in surveillance, medical screening, and intervention will depend on the extent to which a strategy for evidence-based procedures for biomarker knowledge transfer can be developed and implemented. This will require the interaction of researchers and decision-makers to collaborate on public health and medical issues.     

Disease risk analysis: a tool for primate conservation planning and decision making

Concern about emerging and re-emerging diseases plays an increasing role in conservation and management of both captive and free-ranging nonhuman primates (NHPs). Managers and policy makers must formulate conservation plans in an arena plagued by uncertainty, complexity, emotion, and politics. The risk analysis paradigm provides a framework that brings together scientists and policy experts to make better decisions for both people and animals. Risk analysis is a multidisciplinary, science-based process that provides an organized and logical approach for incorporating scientific information into policy development in the real world. By blending four specific goal-oriented stages-hazard identification, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication-one can logically assess the probability that an adverse event, such as the introduction of an emerging disease into a na?ve population, will occur. The following is a review of this process as it pertains to NHP conservation and risks associated with infectious diseases.     

生态安全评价研究中的若干问题

生态安全评价是对生态系统完整性以及对各种风险下维持其健康的可持续能力的识别与研判,以生态风险和生态健康评价为核心内容,并体现人类安全的主导性．生态风险识别和生态脆弱性是生态风险评价的构成要素,生态健康则表现在生态完整性、生态系统活力与恢复力三方面．生态安全评价的准则与指标体系应将生态风险与生态健康有机结合。同时兼容不同空间尺度并能体现动态变化,其中在EDI、REI和IRI分类基础上叠加暴露分析指标是较大空间尺度生态安全指标体系建立的发展方向．文中综述了现阶段主要的生态安全评价方法,表明暴露-响应综合评价模式在现阶段应用最为广泛,生态模型法评价不同尺度的生态安全则是未来主要发展领域,并注重生态过程安全评价．生态安全评价研究需要与生态安全预测及预警研究相结合,并将生态安全的保障、维护与管理研究纳入其范畴．     

Health risk assessment of nitrates in the groundwater of Beni Amir irrigated perimeter,Tadla plain,Morocco

Abstract

Shallow groundwater contaminated with nitrates may result in human health risks. Groundwater quality in the Beni Amir irrigation perimeter in Tadla plain, Morocco, is influenced by agriculture and farming-related activities. This study was carried out to assess the nitrate contamination of groundwater for drinking purposes by comparing it to Moroccan and WHO guidelines, and by estimating the potential human health effect of nitrates using the model recommended by the USEPA. The results showed that the nitrate content of groundwater fall between 0 and 82.08?mg L^?1 (mean 24.73?mg L^?1), with 38.10% of groundwater samples exceed the Moroccan and WHO limits for drinking. Groundwater nitrates mainly originated from intensive agricultural practices. The health effects of oral exposure to nitrate are higher than those of dermal exposure. For non-carcinogenic risks, 57.14% of samples showed hazard index (HI) values >1, indicating potential risks. The non-carcinogenic risk for infant and female are higher than that for females and males. The results of this study will offer a health risk reference for local residents and can help to propose suitable management ensuring safe drinking water.     

WHO health risk assessment process for static fields

The World Health Organization (WHO) has a commitment to helping Member States achieve safe, sustainable and health-enhancing human environments, protected from biological, chemical and physical agents. The latter includes advising on the health impact of electromagnetic fields (EMFs) and radiation.

The results of the WHO/ICNIRP/NRPB workshop on static magnetic fields, published in this volume, provide a valuable and much needed contribution to the health risk assessment of exposure to static electric and magnetic fields, which is currently being coordinated by the WHO's International EMF Project. This WHO health risk assessment will be published as an environmental health criteria (EHC) monograph in early 2005.

This paper briefly gives an overview of the process of developing the WHO static fields EHC monograph, the criteria applied to studies that could contribute to the EHC, along with the ‘weight-of-evidence’ approach to health risk assessment. In addition, there is an increasing awareness of the need to account for uncertainty in the science database. This is traditionally addressed by further research, and the EMF project addresses these needs through the development of a ‘research agenda’. However, research programmes may take several years to complete, and the long latency associated with diseases such as cancer in people may also preclude a rapid outcome in some studies. The issue of current uncertainty is being addressed by the WHO EMF project through the development of a ‘precautionary framework’ in which precautionary measures will be applied to policy recommendations.