Significant Mean and Extreme Climate Sensitivity of Norway Spruce and Silver Fir at Mid-Elevation Mesic Sites in the Alps

Climate forcing is the major abiotic driver for forest ecosystem functioning and thus significantly affects the role of forests within the global carbon cycle and related ecosystem services. Annual radial increments of trees are probably the most valuable source of information to link tree growth and climate at long-term time scales, and have been used in a wide variety of investigations worldwide. However, especially in mountainous areas, tree-ring studies have focused on extreme environments where the climate sensitivity is perhaps greatest but are necessarily a biased representation of the forests within a region. We used tree-ring analyses to study two of the most important tree species growing in the Alps: Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba). We developed tree-ring chronologies from 13 mesic mid-elevation sites (203 trees) and then compared them to monthly temperature and precipitation data for the period 1846–1995. Correlation functions, principal component analysis and fuzzy C-means clustering were applied to 1) assess the climate/growth relationships and their stationarity and consistency over time, and 2) extract common modes of variability in the species responses to mean and extreme climate variability. Our results highlight a clear, time-stable, and species-specific response to mean climate conditions. However, during the previous-year''s growing season, which shows the strongest correlations, the primary difference between species is in their response to extreme events, not mean conditions. Mesic sites at mid-altitude are commonly underrepresented in tree-ring research; we showed that strong climatic controls of growth may exist even in those areas. Extreme climatic events may play a key role in defining the species-specific responses on climatic sensitivity and, with a global change perspective, specific divergent responses are likely to occur even where current conditions are less limited.     

Stationarity of climate-growth response is only marginally influenced by the soil moisture regime in Western Siberia

Stationary (time-stable) relationships between a tree-ring proxy and climatic drivers are a prerequisite for using tree rings as paleo-climatological archives, but non-stationarity has been detected worldwide. Here we use a classical, temperature-sensitive treeline site in Western Siberia to specifically test the influence of micro-site conditions (wet versus dry) on the stationarity of climate-growth relationships in three co-existing conifer species: Larix sibirica Ledeb., Picea obovata Ledeb., and Pinus sibirica DuTour. We test two commonly used tree-ring proxies, annual tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD), using moving windows and the bootstrapped transfer function stability test (BTFS). Summer temperature is the main driver of tree growth in all three species, but non-stationarities exist in all species and both tree-ring proxies. For TRW, we found stationarity only for larch from both micro-sites, while for MXD, we found stationarity for spruce from both micro-sites, and for pine from the wet micro-site. Micro-site variability did not seem to affect stationarity in any systematic way. We highlight the necessity to systematically test the influence of different methods of stationarity tests, since BTFS was more sensitive than moving-window analysis. Taken together, our results underscore the importance of testing the assumption of stationarity for diverse micro-sites, different species and proxies at all sites prior to any tree-ring based temperature reconstruction, since even within one site results can be drastically different.     

Age and size outperform topographic effects on growth-climate responses of trees in two Central European coniferous forest types

Trees do not respond to climatic conditions uniformly, but instead show individualistic growth responses. The extent of and causes behind this within-stand variability represents significant uncertainty in predictions of how forests will respond to future climate change. We analyzed patterns of individualistic tree growth within two types of conifer stands of Central Europe – high-elevation Picea abies and low-elevation Pinus sylvestris forests. We quantified the relative effect of age, size, and topographic conditions on variability in growth patterns and climate-growth responses using principal component analysis and linear models, considering both year-to-year and decadal growth variability. Our results show that Picea abies stands with dominant temperature limitation exhibit greater growth coherency than Pinus sylvestris stands characterized by drought-limited growth. Growth variability and individual climate-growth responses in both forest types were mainly driven by tree size and age, while the effect of topographic conditions was less important. The effect of size and age variables was dominant considering decadal growth trends, whereas intermediate importance of topographic variables was observed for high-frequency growth variability and climate-growth responses. Our results highlight that between-tree variability in climatic signal and growth trends also reflects the specific distribution of the age/size and topographic parameters within the stand. We suggest careful selection of datasets used for large-scale assessments of growth trends and climate-growth responses which should consider the age and size representation of sampled trees.     

Size-dependent responses to summer drought in Scots pine, Norway spruce and common oak

In this study, we provide a detailed analysis of tree growth and water status in relation to climate of three major species of forest trees in lower regions of Bavaria, Southern Germany: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and common oak (Quercus robur). Tree-ring chronologies and latewood δ¹³C were used to derive measures for drought reaction across trees of different dimensions: growth reduction associated with drought years, long-term growth/climate relations and stomatal control on photosynthesis. For Scots pine, growth/climate relations indicated a stronger limitation of radial growth by high summer temperatures and low summer precipitation in smaller trees in contrast to larger trees. This is corroborated by a stronger stomatal control on photosynthesis for smaller pine trees under average conditions. In dry years, however, larger pine trees exhibited stronger growth reductions. For Norway spruce, a significantly stronger correlation of tree-ring width with summer temperatures and summer precipitation was found for larger trees. Additionally, for Norway spruce there is evidence for a change in competition mode from size-asymmetric competition under conditions with sufficient soil water supply to a more size-symmetric competition under dry conditions. Smaller oak trees showed a weaker stomatal control on photosynthesis under both dry and average conditions, which is also reflected by a significantly faster recovery of tree-ring growth after extreme drought events in smaller oak trees. The observed patterns are discussed in the context of the limitation-caused matter partitioning hypothesis and possible species-specific ontogenetic modifications.     

Drought signal in the tree rings of three conifer species from Northern Pakistan

Anthropogenic and climatic stressors have affected the forests of northern Pakistan in recent decades. Several studies have been conducted to understand forest growth and its relation to the changing climate in this region, but more work needs to be done to understand this complex environment. In this study, we have collected tree core samples of three conifer species (Pinus wallichiana, Picea smithiana, and Abies pindrow) from three different sites in northern Pakistan to understand their radial growth pattern with the goal of finding a relationship between ring-width and climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation, and drought). A 610-year (AD 1406–2015), a 538-year (AD 1478–2015), and a 306-year (AD 1710–2015) long tree-ring width chronology of Pinus wallichiana, Picea smithiana, and Abies pindrow were developed, respectively, using living trees. The ring-width chronologies of these three species showed a strong positive link with the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) rather than precipitation or temperature alone, indicating that soil moisture is the primary limiting climatic factor for the growth of these species in the sampling locations. The chronologies of Pinus wallichiana and Picea smithiana exhibited growth suppressions during AD 1570–1610 and the second half of 17th century while their growth was heightened from AD 1540–1560. We have found the lowest growth in Abies pindrow and Picea smithiana from AD 1900–1920, suggesting dry conditions. All three chronologies have exhibited the most rapid increase in growth during the recent decades, suggesting that this region is experiencing climate change with a strong trend towards wetter conditions.     

Quantifying the effects of drought on abrupt growth decreases of major tree species in Switzerland

Drought entails important effects on tree physiology, which may result in short‐ to long‐term radial growth decreases. While the majority of studies have focused on annual drought‐related variability of growth, relatively little is known about sustained growth decreases following drought years. We apply a statistical framework to identify climatic factors that induce abrupt growth decreases and may eventually result in tree mortality. We used tree‐ring data from almost 500 standing dead trees and 200 living trees in eight sites of the Swiss network of strict forest reserves, including four of the most important Central European tree species (Abies alba, Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus spp.). First, to assess short‐term growth responses to drought under various climate and site conditions, we calculated correlations and linear mixed‐effects models between ring‐width indices (RWIs) and drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Second, to quantify drought effects on abrupt growth decreases, we applied distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), which account for both delayed effects and the nonlinear relationship between the SPEI and the occurrence of abrupt growth decreases. Positive correlations between RWIs and the SPEI indicated short‐term growth responses of all species, particularly at arid sites. Results of the DLNMs revealed species‐specific growth responses to drought. For Quercus spp., abrupt growth decreases were more likely to occur several years following severe drought, whereas for P. abies, A. alba, and F. sylvatica abrupt growth decreases started frequently immediately in the drought year. We conclude that the statistical framework allows for quantifying the effects of drought intensity on the probability of abrupt growth decreases, which ultimately contributes to an improved understanding of climate impacts on forest community dynamics.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Climate change shifts environmental space and limits transferability of treeline models

Our study aims at gaining insights into the processes determining the current treeline dynamics in Finnish Lapland. Using forest surveys conducted in 1978 and 2003 we modelled the occurrence and abundance of three dominant tree species in Finnish Lapland, i.e. Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Betula pubescens, with boosted regression trees. We assessed the importance of climatic, biotic and topographic variables in predicting tree occurrence and abundance based on their relative importance and response curves. We compared temporal and spatial transferability by using an extended transferability index. Site fertility, the abundance of co‐occurring species and growing degree days were generally the most important predictors for both occurrence and abundance across all species and datasets. Climatic predictors were more important for modelling occurrences than for modelling abundances. Occurrence models were able to reproduce the observed treeline pattern within one time period or region. Abundance models underestimated basal area but captured the general pattern of low and high values. Model performance as well as transferability differed considerably between species and datasets. Pinus sylvestris was modelled more successfully than P. abies and B. pubescens. Generally, spatial transferability was greater than temporal transferability. Comparing the environmental space between datasets revealed that transferring models means extrapolating to novel environments, providing a plausible explanation for limited transferability. Our study illustrates how climate change can shift the environmental space and lead to limited model transferability. We identified non‐climatic factors to be important in predicting the distribution of dominant tree species, contesting the widespread assumption of climatically induced range expansion.     

Annual Growth Ring Patterns in Brachystegia spiciformis Reveal Influence of Precipitation on Tree Growth1

The availability of exactly dated tree‐ring chronologies is limited in tropical regions. However, these chronologies could contribute widely to studies of the influence of natural and human‐induced factors on tropical forests. We examine the potential for building a chronology based on three sites in the miombo woodland of western Zambia. Brachystegia spiciformis Benth., a dominant species from this vegetation type, is used. Response of the chronology to several climatic factors is examined. All specimens showed very clear growth rings, and cross‐dating between radii of a tree was successful for all trees. Site chronologies could be constructed after cross‐dating of growth ring series of individual trees. The mean growth ring curves of the three sites were significantly similar, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. Correlation function analysis between the tree‐ring chronology and regional climatic variables revealed that climate at the core of the rainy season, in December and January, has an explicit influence on tree growth. Where precipitation and relative humidity in these months influence tree growth positively, temperature correlates in a negative way. Some 20 percent of the variance in the B. spiciformis tree‐ring chronology is accounted for by wet season rainfall. The successful cross‐dating and correlation between a tree‐ring chronology and climate demonstrated in this study indicate annual ring formation in B. spiciformis trees and sensitivity to climatic conditions.     

Climate increases regional tree-growth variability in Iberian pine forests

Tree populations located at the geographical distribution limit of the species may provide valuable information about tree‐growth response to changes on climatic conditions. We established nine Pinus nigra, 12 P. sylvestris and 17 P. uncinata tree‐ring width chronologies along the eastern and northern Iberian Peninsula, where these species are found at the edge of their natural range. Tree‐growth variability was analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA) for the period 1885–1992. Despite the diversity of species, habitats and climatic regimes, a common macroclimatic signal expressed by the first principal component (PC1) was found. Moreover, considering the PC1 scores as a regional chronology, significant relations were established with Spanish meteorological data. The shared variance held by the tree chronologies, the frequency of narrow rings and the interannual growth variability (sensitivity) increased markedly during the studied period. This shows an enhancement of growth synchrony among forests indicating that climate might have become more limiting to growth. Noticeably, an upward abrupt shift in common variability at the end of the first half of the 20th century was detected. On the other hand, moving‐interval response functions showed a change in the growth–climate relationships during the same period. The relationship between growth and late summer/autumn temperatures of the year before growth (August–September, negative correlation, and November, positive correlation) became stronger. Hence, water stress increase during late summer previous to tree growth could be linked to the larger growth synchrony among sites, suggesting that climate was driving the growth pattern changes. This agrees with the upward trend in temperature observed in these months. Moreover, the higher occurrence of extreme years and the sensitivity increase in the second half of the 20th century were in agreement with an increment in precipitation variability during the growing period. Precipitation variability was positively related to tree‐growth variability, but negatively to radial growth. In conclusion, a change in tree‐growth pattern and in the climatic response of the studied forests was detected since the mid‐20th century and linked to an increase in water stress. These temporal trends were in agreement with the observed increase in warmer conditions and in precipitation variability.     

Climatic response of three tree species growing at different elevations in the Lüliang Mountains of Northern China

In this study, we present the results of a dendroclimatological investigation of three coniferous tree species, Larix principis-rupprechtii, Picea meyeri and Pinus tabulaeformis, growing along an altitudinal gradient at the Lüliang Mountains in Northern China. Totally five tree-ring width chronologies were developed to explore the climate-growth responses of these tree species. No obviously regular trend associated with the increase of elevation was found by comparing the statistical characteristics of the chronologies. Correlation analysis indicated that the chronologies from lowerest to middle-high sites (SZ, BWD, BDGL and BDGP, respectively) were highly correlated, and different species from the same site showed the highest correlation. Growth–climate analysis indicated that the chronology of Larix principis-rupprechti at the uppermost site near the tree line (XWS) did not exhibit a significant response to the seasonal climatic factors, whereas the other four lower chronologies were consistently and significantly influenced by both the mean temperature from May to July and the total precipitation from March to June, regardless of tree species and elevation. The similarity of the tree growth–climate relationships of different species growing at different elevations (except that from the tree line) suggests that the trees in this region can provide common regional climate information, and combinations of multiple species (RC) are more successful in reconstructing the climate data than single species. The results of this research are very crucial for the future forest management and dendroclimatological sampling strategy in the arid to semi-arid area of northern China.     

Mediterranean dwarf shrubs and coexisting trees present different radial-growth synchronies and responses to climate

Due to their diversity and dominance in environmentally harsh sites, Mediterranean dwarf shrubs are a valuable tool to understand the consequences of climatic variability on radial growth in woody plants. We evaluate the dendrochronological potential of three Mediterranean dwarf shrubs versus three coexisting tree species inhabiting cold- (Hormathophylla spinosa vs. Pinus sylvestris), mesic- (Ononis fruticosa vs. Abies alba), and xeric sites (Linum suffruticosum vs. Pinus halepensis). Cross-sectional wood sections of the three shrub species and cores in the case of trees were visually cross-dated and ring-widths were measured and converted into residual growth indices. We used linear mixed-effects models to assess how growth indices respond to local factors and climatic variables. The radial growth of the three dwarf shrub species was more asynchronous, i.e., ring-width series differed among conspecific individuals, than that of coexisting tree species. Growth asynchrony was higher for H. spinosa than for O. fruticosa and L. suffruticosum. Similarly, the ring-width series of O. fruticosa and L. suffruticosum was strongly correlated with that of coexisting tree species, while growth series of H. spinosa and P. sylvestris was not related at all. The growth of the three dwarf shrub species was influenced by the regional climatic conditions, but to a lesser degree than coexisting tree species. The highest responsiveness of growth to climate was observed in Mediterranean dwarf shrubs from xeric sites. However, local conditions are also major drivers of growth in Mediterranean dwarf shrubs as indicated by the stronger asynchrony in ring formation of these species as compared with coexisting trees, particularly in cold sites.     

昌岭山两个优势树种径向生长对气候变化的响应

在气候变暖背景下,树木径向生长对气候变化的响应存在不稳定性。利用采自祁连山东部余脉昌岭山两个优势树种油松和青海云杉的树轮样芯,建立树轮宽度标准年表,通过分析树轮宽度年表与气候要素的相关关系,探讨两个树种径向生长对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）油松年表比青海云杉年表包含更多的气候信息,其平均敏感度、标准差、信噪比和样本对总体的代表性等统计量均高于青海云杉标准年表。（2）气候要素对不同树种径向生长限制程度不同,油松径向生长主要与降水（前一年9月和当年3-8月）和气温（前一年9月）有关,但对降水的响应更为敏感,而青海云杉径向生长则受到气温（当年9月）和降水（前一年9月、当年3月和7月）的共同作用。（3）气温突变后,油松和青海云杉年表与各气温要素的相关性显著增强,而青海云杉年表与气温要素的相关性变化更明显,指示了青海云杉径向生长对气温的响应更不稳定。（4）生长季平均最低气温的升高诱导的干旱胁迫是油松和青海云杉树木径向生长-气温响应变化的主要原因。     

Climate Influences on the Radial Growth of Centrolobium microchaete,a Valuable Timber Species from the Tropical Dry Forests in Bolivia

In this study, we use tree‐ring records to determine the climate factors controlling the growth of Centrolobium microchaete, a high‐value timber species from the tropical dry Chiquitano forest in Bolivia. We present the first tree‐ring chronologies from C. microchaete for Concepción and Santa Mónica, Bolivia. Statistical analyses show that the chronologies are of good quality and have a significant common signal between trees. The growth of C. microchaete is strongly influenced by climatic conditions during late spring–early summer. Abundant precipitations concurrent with below‐average temperatures during this period of the year favor tree growth. Climate variations in late spring–early summer explain >40 percent of the total variance in C. microchaete tree growth during the interval 1943–2005. Minor differences in tree responses to climate recorded between the two stands may reflect differences in the extent of the dry season and in soil water capacity between sites. Although the chronologies cover the past 180 yr, adding samples from older individuals would permit the extension of these records further back in time. The strong climate dependency of tree growth suggests that predicted future climate changes in the region could have a significant influence on C. microchaete tree growth during the 21st century.     

The structure and dynamics of old-growth Pinus sylvestris (L.) stands in the Wigry National Park,north-eastern Poland

The paper describes the structure and the developmental trends of old-growth Pinus sylvestris stands in the Wigry National Park, in north-eastern Poland. The stands represent a transitional zone between deciduous forests of Central Europe and boreal, coniferous forests of north-eastern Europe. Besides P. sylvestris, the most important tree species are Picea abies and Quercus robur. Among the subcanopy species, Corylus avellana and Sorbus aucuparia occur most frequently. On the basis of the data from 6 permanent sample plots (total size: 1.90 ha), several parameters and stand indices are analysed including species composition of the canopy and the regeneration, diameter distribution, age structure of main tree species, and the relationship between canopy and spatial dispersion of woody regeneration. The most striking feature of the stands studied is the almost complete absence of natural regeneration of P. sylvestris. This seems to be in contradiction with the apparently natural origin of this species in the stands, and a common occurrence of natural disturbances resulting in openings and gaps in forest canopy. The main tree species replacing P. sylvestris in the canopy are P. abies and Q. robur. Also increasing are some broad-leaved species typical of high fertility sites: Acer platanoides, Tilia cordata, Ulmus glabra, and Fraxinus excelsior. A shrub C. avellana occurs extensively competing with tree species and delaying tree replacement processes. While no direct data on the changes in the site conditions can be provided and the recovery hypothesis appears to be the most straightforward explanation of the changes in P. sylvestris stands, the possible role of the allogenic changes in environmental conditions (climate warming, nitrogen deposition) is also discussed.     

Contrasting acclimation abilities of two dominant boreal conifers to elevated CO2 and temperature

High latitude forests will experience large changes in temperature and CO₂ concentrations this century. We evaluated the effects of future climate conditions on 2 dominant boreal tree species, Pinus sylvestris L. and Picea abies (L.) H. Karst, exposing seedlings to 3 seasons of ambient (430 ppm) or elevated CO₂ (750 ppm) and ambient temperatures, a + 4 °C warming or a + 8 °C warming. Pinus sylvestris responded positively to warming: seedlings developed a larger canopy, maintained high net CO₂ assimilation rates (A_net), and acclimated dark respiration (R_dark). In contrast, carbon fluxes in Picea abies were negatively impacted by warming: maximum rates of A_net decreased, electron transport was redirected to alternative electron acceptors, and thermal acclimation of R_dark was weak. Elevated CO₂ tended to exacerbate these effects in warm‐grown Picea abies, and by the end of the experiment Picea abies from the +8 °C, high CO₂ treatment produced fewer buds than they had 3 years earlier. Treatments had little effect on leaf and wood anatomy. Our results highlight that species within the same plant functional type may show opposite responses to warming and imply that Picea abies may be particularly vulnerable to warming due to low plasticity in photosynthetic and respiratory metabolism.     

The climatic drivers of primary Picea forest growth along the Carpathian arc are changing under rising temperatures

Climatic constraints on tree growth mediate an important link between terrestrial and atmospheric carbon pools. Tree rings provide valuable information on climate‐driven growth patterns, but existing data tend to be biased toward older trees on climatically extreme sites. Understanding climate change responses of biogeographic regions requires data that integrate spatial variability in growing conditions and forest structure. We analyzed both temporal (c. 1901–2010) and spatial variation in radial growth patterns in 9,876 trees from fragments of primary Picea abies forests spanning the latitudinal and altitudinal extent of the Carpathian arc. Growth was positively correlated with summer temperatures and spring moisture availability throughout the entire region. However, important seasonal variation in climate responses occurred along geospatial gradients. At northern sites, winter precipitation and October temperatures of the year preceding ring formation were positively correlated with ring width. In contrast, trees at the southern extent of the Carpathians responded negatively to warm and dry conditions in autumn of the year preceding ring formation. An assessment of regional synchronization in radial growth variability showed temporal fluctuations throughout the 20th century linked to the onset of moisture limitation in southern landscapes. Since the beginning of the study period, differences between high and low elevations in the temperature sensitivity of tree growth generally declined, while moisture sensitivity increased at lower elevations. Growth trend analyses demonstrated changes in absolute tree growth rates linked to climatic change, with basal area increments in northern landscapes and lower altitudes responding positively to recent warming. Tree growth has predominantly increased with rising temperatures in the Carpathians, accompanied by early indicators that portions of the mountain range are transitioning from temperature to moisture limitation. Continued warming will alleviate large‐scale temperature constraints on tree growth, giving increasing weight to local drivers that are more challenging to predict.     

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species’ geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland‐southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes.     

滇西北石卡雪山2个针叶树种森林上限径向生长对温度和降水的响应

基于树木年轮学的理论和方法,建立滇西北高原石卡雪山森林上限丽江云杉(Picea likiangensis)和高山松(Pinus densata)差值年表,运用响应函数研究其与气候因子的关系,进而阐明影响滇西北高原针叶树种径向生长的主要气候因子,并利用冗余分析(RDA)进一步分析并验证树木生长与温度和降水的关系。研究结果表明:石卡雪山森林上限针叶树种径向生长主要受温度影响,温度和降水对树木生长有滞后效应,2个树种对气候响应存在差异。具体表现为(1)丽江云杉径向生长受温度和降水的共同作用,与上年10月平均最低温呈显著负相关,与上年11月平均最高温以及当年7月温度呈显著正相关,上年8月和当年5月降水抑制其生长;(2)高山松径向生长与上年10月平均温和平均最高温、11月平均温呈显著正相关,与当年7月平均温和平均最高温呈显著负相关,与降水未达到显著相关水平;(3)冗余分析与响应函数分析结果基本一致,进一步证明该方法能够有效量化树木径向生长与气候因子的关系。能够为气候变化背景下的滇西北高原森林生态系统管理与保护提供理论依据。