Population Dynamics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Agave marmorata</Emphasis> Roezl. under Two Contrasting Management Systems in Central Mexico

Population Dynamics of Agave marmorata Roezl. under Two Contrasting Management Systems in Central Mexico. This paper evaluates the impacts of traditional management on the population dynamics of Agave marmorata, a multipurpose, useful species that is dominant in the Zapotitlán Salinas Valley, Puebla, Mexico. During 2002–2003 and 2003–2004, we constructed matrix models for two populations—one unmanaged, the other subject to plant extraction and cutting of flowering stalks. We also conducted prospective (elasticity) and retrospective (life table response experiments) analyses. Overall, the unmanaged population had higher finite rates of increase (λ) than the managed one. This variation in λ was the result of a decrease in the individual growth and fecundity in the managed population. Survival and growth were the demographic processes with the highest contribution to λ in the unmanaged population, while survival was the most important in the managed one. Our results suggest that management and plant extraction practices could be having negative effects on the population dynamics of this plant species. Recommendations are provided in order to promote positive effects on its vital rates and regeneration capacity.     

Demographic differences between two sympatric lilies (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Calochortus</Emphasis>) with contrasting distributions,as revealed by matrix analysis

Related species of similar morphology can differ greatly in distribution and abundance. Elucidating reasons for such differences can contribute to an understanding of intrinsic limiting factors and the causes of rarity. We studied sympatric populations of two terrestrial lilies with contrasting distributions: Calochortus lyallii, which is geographically restricted but locally abundant, and C. macrocarpus, which is widespread but locally sparse. Marked plants of each species were monitored for 5 years in British Columbia, Canada. Matrix projection models were used to estimate annual and stochastic population growth rates (λ and λ_s) and to compare demographic traits. Annual λ-values ranged from 0.89 to 1.04 in C. lyallii and from 0.89 to 1.01 in C. macrocarpus. Stochastic projections yielded a long-term growth rate near 1 for C. lyallii, but indicated a decline for C. macrocarpus. Elasticity analysis indicated that over the 5-year period of the study, survival of flowering plants made a larger proportional contribution to λ in C. lyallii than in C. macrocarpus. LTRE analysis showed that temporal variation in λ was driven primarily by the dynamics of flowering individuals in C. lyallii, and by the dynamics of vegetative individuals in C. macrocarpus. Similarly, higher flowering rates in C. lyallii and greater vegetative stasis in C. macrocarpus made the largest contribution to the difference in λ between species. Thus, local persistence in these two morphologically similar species appears to be achieved via different demographic pathways. Our analyses show that extrapolations about demographic processes and population dynamics based on taxonomic relatedness, morphological similarity or habitat overlap may often not be justified. Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this article contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.     

Year-to-year Oscillations in Demography of the Strictly Biennial <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pedicularis sylvatica</Emphasis> and Effects of Experimental Disturbances

In 1998–2001, I studied disturbance effects on the population structure and dynamics of a grassland strict biennial Pedicularis sylvatica, and on the species demography (monthly dynamics of seedling recruitment in 1998 and within- and between-year survival in 1998–2000). In two Czech populations, I established three experimental disturbance regimes: (1) a gap treatment, that simulated grazing by clipping vegetation and creating small gaps, (2) a mowing treatment, where I clipped the vegetation, and (3) a no management treatment, where I left the vegetation untreated. The number of recruiting seedlings varied greatly by year, and demographic structure of populations showed significant year-to-year oscillations in mean seedling numbers, from low (3 ± 0.7 s.e. per 0.25 m² plot) to high (103 ± 20). Inversely in the same years and plots, mean adult numbers in populations oscillated from high (12 ± 2) to low (0.7 ± 0.3). Disturbance effects were only important for seedling recruitment in early census dates in all years. In 1998, most seedlings recruited in April–May in gaps in both sites, but most died before winter. Within- and between-year survival was not affected by disturbance regimes but fluctuated significantly among years. Between-year survival increased with increasing size of the overwintering bud and was higher in disturbance treatments. Since the oscillations in population structure did not significantly vary in response to experimental disturbances, population dynamics may be driven endogenously rather than by disturbance events. The weak disturbance effects on species demography may also indicate population resilience to changes in habitat quality. However, since disturbances promoted seedling recruitment, grazing or mowing regimes are strongly recommended, as they create regeneration opportunities and maintain habitat quality, meeting the species long-term conservation goals.     

Demography of a dormancy-prone geophyte: influence of spatial scale on interpretation of dynamics

Both temporal and spatial scales are important in the evaluation of population dynamics, but the latter often receives less attention in demographic analyses. We used a 5-year demographic data set for a long-lived geophyte, Calochortus lyallii, to investigate the pattern and components of spatial variation at two scales (population and microsite). We found that neither the projected population structure nor asymptotic population growth rate (λ) varied greatly across either scale, although the underlying contributors to the variation in λ, V(λ), did differ between scales. Life table response experiment analyses showed that V(λ) among populations came primarily from variation in seedling survival and progression of non-reproductive plants, whereas V(λ) among microsites was primarily due to the variable fertility of large adults. Prolonged dormancy was important in reducing V(λ) among quadrats at both the scales, partly countering fluctuations in other transitions such as recruitment. This result represents some of the first evidence that underground “bulb banks” could function to offset the effects of a spatially heterogeneous environment in a manner analogous to seed banks. Future work is needed to isolate the specific, sometimes idiosyncratic, life history phenomena acting to modulate plant population dynamics in a spatial context.     

The effect of sub-lethal increases in temperature on the growth and population trajectories of three scleractinian corals on the southern Great Barrier Reef

To date, coral death has been the most conspicuous outcome of warming tropical seas, but as temperatures stabilize at higher values, the consequences for the corals remaining will be mediated by their demographic responses to the sub-lethal effects of temperature. To gain insight into the nature of these responses, here I develop a model to test the effect of increased temperature on populations of three pocilloporid corals at One Tree Island, near the southern extreme of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Using Seriatopora hystrix, S. caliendrum and Pocillopora damicornis as study species, the effects of temperature on growth were determined empirically, and the dynamics of their populations determined under natural temperatures over a 6-month period between 1999 and 2000 [defined as the study year (SY)]. The two data sets were combined in a demographic test of the possibility that the thermal regime projected for the southern GBR in the next 55–83 years—warmer by 3°C than the study year (the SY+3 regime), which is equivalent to 1.4°C warmer than the recent warm year of 1998—would alter coral population trajectories through the effects on coral growth alone; the analyses first were completed by species, then by family after pooling among species. Laboratory experiments showed that growth rates (i.e., calcification) varied significantly among species and temperatures, and displayed curvilinear thermal responses with growth maxima at ∼27.1°C. Based on these temperature-growth responses, the SY+3 regime is projected to: (1) increase annualized growth rates of all taxa by 24–39%, and defer the timing of peak growth from the summer to the autumn and spring, (2) alter the intrinsic rate of population growth (λ) for S. hystrix (λ decreases 26%) and S. caliendrum (λ increases 5%), but not for P. damicornis, and (3) have a minor effect on λ (a 0.3% increase) for the Pocilloporidae, largely because λ varies more among species than it does between temperatures. Ten-year population projections suggest that the effects of a sub-lethal increase in temperature (i.e., the SY+3 regime) are relatively small compared to the interspecific differences in population dynamics, but nevertheless will alter the population size and increase the relative abundance of large colonies at the expense of smaller colonies for all three species, as well as the Pocilloporidae. These effects may play an important role in determining the nuances of coral population structure as seawater warms, and their significance may intensity if the coral species pool is depleted of thermally sensitive species by bleaching.     

Interactions between local climate and grazing determine the population dynamics of the small herb Viola biflora

Plants of low stature may benefit from the presence of large herbivores through removal of tall competitive neighbours and increased light availability. Accordingly, removal of grazers has been predicted to disfavour small species. In addition to this indirect beneficial effect, the population dynamics of plants is strongly influenced by variation in external conditions such as temperature and precipitation. However, few studies have examined the interaction between large herbivores and inter-annual variation in climate for the population dynamics of small plant species not preferred by herbivores. We studied three populations of the perennial herb Viola biflora exposed to different sheep densities (high, low and zero) for 6 years in a field experiment. Plants were also impacted by invertebrate and small vertebrate herbivores (rodents). Rates of growth were marginally higher at high sheep densities, and during warm summers both survival and growth were higher when sheep were present. Thus, while the height of tall herbs was positively related to July temperature, it was less so in the treatments with sheep, suggesting that sheep reduce the negative effects of interspecific competition for this small herb. Life table response experiment analyses revealed that the population growth rate (λ) was slightly lower in the absence of sheep, but between-year variation in λ was larger than variation among sheep density treatments. λ was negatively related to July temperature, with an additional negative effect of vertebrate grazing frequency (sheep or rodent grazing). The evidence from this 6-year study suggests that the population dynamics of Viola biflora is determined by a complex interplay between climate and grazing by both large and small herbivores.     

Remnant population dynamics in the facultative biennial Carum carvi in fragmented semi-natural grasslands

Transition matrix models were used to examine the population dynamics in the facultative biennial Carum carvi L. in semi-natural grasslands, specifically to assess what life cycle stages are important for population development and to evaluate the effects of environmental stochasticity on population persistence and, hence, the ability to develop remnant populations. The demographic studies were conducted over a 4-year period in three moderately grazed grasslands that differed in onset and duration of grazing. Experimental seed-sowing was also conducted in disturbed and undisturbed plots in the populations. Deterministic and stochastic models yielded overall negative population growth (λ < 1) for the populations. λ was sensitive to transitions in the most frequent vegetative stage classes. Elasticity analysis indicated that a large proportion of population growth could be ascribed to the stasis of individuals in the largest vegetative stage class. Life-table response experiment (LTRE) analyses showed also that progression to larger stage classes was important in explaining the between-population variation in λ. The expected time to extinction was on the order of several decades for the study populations. Seed-sowing indicated that seedling establishment was limited by both seed and micro-site availability. The populations of C. carvi seem to be able to persist for a rather long time in moderately grazed semi-natural grasslands, even in cases where populations are destined to become extinct. The results, thus, indicate that “biennials” are able to maintain remnant populations in managed semi-natural grasslands.     

Dances with fire: Tracking metapopulation dynamics of<Emphasis Type="Italic">polygonella basiramia</Emphasis> in Florida scrub (USA)

The regional persistence of species subject to local population colonization and extinction necessarily depends on how landscape features and disturbance affect metapopulation dynamics. Here, we characterize the metapopulation structure and short-term dynamics ofPolygonella basiramia. This rare, short-lived perennial herb is endemic to Florida scrublands and lacks a seed bank. Fires create the open sand gaps within a shrub matrix that support this species but also kill established plants. Thus, persistence depends on frequent colonization of unoccupied gaps. We are monitoring population dynamics within and among 1204 gaps distributed among 19 shrub patches. Considerable subpopulation turnover is evident at the gap level with rates of gap extinction exceeding rates of colonization in the first year. Whether declines in overall abundance continue is likely to depend on patterns of disturbance and regional stochasticity in this dynamic landscape.Polygonella is more likely to occupy larger and less isolated gaps, demonstrating that landscape features and disturbance strongly affect metapopulation dynamics. BecausePolygonella basiramia displays characteristics, occupancy patterns, and turnover dynamics consistent with metapopulation theory, it represents a model system for studying plant metapopulations.     

Variation in life-cycle between three rare and endangered floodplain violets in two regions: implications for population viability and conservation

We studied the demography of Viola elatior, V. pumila, and V. stagnina, three rare and endangered Central European floodplain species, to (i) analyse variation in life-cycles among congeners and between regions (Dyje-Morava floodplains, Czech Republic; Upper Rhine, Germany), (ii) to define sensitive stages in the life-cycles, and (iii) to identify possible threats for population viability and species conservation. Matrix models were based on the fate of marked individuals from a total of 27 populations over two years. We analysed population growth rate (λ), stage distribution, net reproductive rate (R ₀), generation time, age at first reproduction, and elasticity and calculated a life table response experiment (LTRE). Most populations were declining and λ did not differ between species or regions during the observed interval. Despite higher probabilities for survival and flowering in the Dyje populations, R ₀ was higher in the Rhine populations. Also other demographic traits showed consistent differences between regions and/or species. Complex life-cycles and large variation in λ precluded unequivocal identification of sensitive stages or vital rates for conservation. Variation between regions may be a consequence of differences in habitat quality. Our results suggest that deterministic processes such as reduced management, succession, habitat destruction, and lack of disturbance through reduced or eliminated flooding present the strongest threat for the viability and persistence of populations of the three floodplain violets as compared with stochastic processes. However, the persistent seed bank of the species may buffer populations against environmental variation and represents a reservoir for recovery after resumption of suitable land-use management.     

Seashore disturbance and management of the clonal Arctophila fulva: Modelling patch dynamics

Question: What is the population viability of a critically endangered seashore grass, Arctophila fulva var. pendulina. Location: Liminka Bay, W Finland, 25°21′70 N, 64°51′90 E. Methods: We constructed a matrix population model based on colonization and disappearance events and patch size changes of A. fulva. Patches were divided into hydric and non‐hydric zones according to proximity to the seashore and intensity of disturbance. Perturbation analyses were carried out in order to identify transitions critical for population growth. Seed bank and seed germination studies provided background information for the model design. Results: A. fulva patches observed in the more disturbed hydric zone (closest to the sea) increased in number, as did the total number of patches. However, the number of patches in the less disturbed non‐hydric zone decreased. Conclusions: Short‐term dynamics of the A. fulva population at Liminka Bay seem to be determined by environmental fluctuations, which cause annual variation in transition rates between patch size classes. The long‐term dynamics are probably governed by initiation of primary succession by isostatic land uplift. Increased disturbance at the water's edge may promote persistence of A. fulva through reduced interspecific competition. Our results suggest that shoreline disturbance of the hydric zone is sufficient for maintaining a viable population. Competitive exclusion of A. fulva in the non‐hydric zone may be delayed by management practices, such as mowing.     

Comparative demographic analysis in contrasting environments of Magnolia dealbata: an endangered species from Mexico

The study of population regulation and demography in natural habitats is critical for the conservation of rare and endangered species. We address the impact of cattle exclusion on the demographics of Magnolia dealbata (Magnoliaceae), an endangered species according to IUCN and Federal Mexican laws. Sixteen permanent plots were established, eight of which were enclosed to livestock, in the mountain cloud forest in Coyopolan, Mexico, which has the largest population of M. deadlbata. Censuses of the plots were undertaken annually during three annual cycles to record seed number, recruitment, mortality, and growth (defined as length and diameter at breast height). The effects of two treatments (with and without livestock exclusion) on the dynamics of M. dealbata were investigated using transition matrix models and life table response experiment (LTRE) analysis. Contrary to expectations, there was no significant effect of cattle exclusion on population growth rates (λ). Furthermore, the λ, estimated from the mean transition matrix for both treatments was greater than one. The transitions with the highest elasticity values were similar between the two treatments, while reproductive stage contributed more to differences in population growth rate and were less variable than the non-reproductive stage. LTRE analysis showed that treatment differences had little effect on λ. Livestock exclusion appears to lead more to differences in the arrangement of the values of the transition matrix than to the rate of population growth for M. dealbata.     

Multiregional Periodic Matrix for Modeling the Population Dynamics of Sardine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Sardina pilchardus</Emphasis>) Along the Moroccan Atlantic Coast: Management Elements for Fisheries

In this paper, we present a deterministic time discrete mathematical model based on multiregional periodic matrices to describe the dynamics of Sardina pilchardus in the Central Atlantic area of the Moroccan coast. This model deals with two stages (immature and mature) and three spatial zones where sardines are supposed to migrate from one zone to another. The population dynamics is described by an autonomous recurrence equation N(t + 1) = A.N(t), where A is a positive matrix whose entries are estimated using data collected during biannual acoustic surveys carried out from 2001 to 2003 onboard the Norwegian research vessel “Dr Fridtjof Nansen”. The dominant eigenvalue λ of A that gives the long-term growth rate of fish population is smaller than one. This agrees with the stock decrease observed in the data collected. We show that λ is highly sensitive to the recruitment rate and much less sensitive to the reproduction rate. These results can clearly be used to define an efficient scenario in order to fight for instance against a stock decrease.     

Reintroduction of the rare damselfly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ischnura gemina</Emphasis> (Odonata: Coenagrionidae) into an urban California park

Habitat degradation led to local extinction of the San Francisco forktail damselfly (Ischnura gemina) in Glen Canyon Park, San Francisco, California. In this study, we reintroduced I. gemina into Glen Canyon after the damselfly’s habitat was restored. Upon release, we carried out a mark- release-recapture study to monitor the damselfly’s population dynamics. Our data were compared to two “baseline” studies on I. gemina, conducted in the park prior to the damselfly’s demise. Our recapture rates were significantly lower than the prior studies due to a large initial decline in marked individuals upon release. Despite a lower recapture rate, the reintroduction was initially successful since the damselflies reproduced throughout the summer and the following year. However, the population failed to persist during the second year when the habitat became degraded with excess vegetation. Future success is contingent on the continual management and upkeep of the habitat.     

Population life-cycle and stand structure in dense and open stands of the introduced tall herb <Emphasis Type="Italic">Heracleum mantegazzianum</Emphasis>

Populations of the introduced Heracleum mantegazzianum consist of dense central stands, which gradually give way to open stands towards the margins. To analyse whether open stands are due to unsuitable conditions or represent the invading front for further spread, we studied life-cycle, population dynamics, stand structure and soil conditions of open and dense stands over two transition periods. Populations decreased during the first interval but increased after the extremely dry and warm summer of 2003 during the second interval. Open stands had shorter generation times, lower height, smaller proportions of small individuals and were less in equilibrium with the environment than dense stands. In open stands, growth to higher stages was most important, while in dense stands delayed development (self-loops) had a strong effect on population growth; stasis and fecundity contributed most to the difference in λ between stand types. By petiole extension H. mantegazzianum may raise its leaves just above the resident vegetation. Therefore, younger stages develop faster in open stands, whereas strong competition by conspecific adults leads to longer generation times and a higher proportion of small individuals in dense stands. Disturbance due to extreme climatic conditions in summer 2003 equalised population dynamics of both stand types. Life-cycle variation between stand types makes it difficult to infer simple management rules. However, our data suggest that small and/or open stands of H. mantegazzianum may eventually serve as initials for further spread after land-use changes, whereas dense stands are stable and may represent sources of propagules.     

Dynamics of isolated <Emphasis Type="Italic">Saponaria bellidifolia</Emphasis> Sm. populations at northern range periphery

Four populations of Saponaria bellidifolia situated at the species’ northern range periphery (Apuseni Mountains, southeastern Carpathians) were monitored over a period of 5 years. They were chosen to represent different habitat types (rocky, fixed screes, open screes and grassy), disturbance regime (fire), and population sizes (categorized as large and small). The reproductive effort was quantified, and matrix models were used to describe the population dynamics and to assess population viability. Saponaria bellidifolia had very stable population dynamics in the harsh and stable abiotic conditions of the outcrops where populations occur. Habitat conditions exerted a notable influence on the species’ population reproductive performance, growth rate, and vital rates, whereas population size and climate did not have a clear-cut effect on the dynamics of the species. Saponaria bellidifolia maintains viable populations in the southeastern Carpathians, at its northern range periphery.     

Predicting Capacity Demand on Sanctuaries for African Chimpanzees (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes</Emphasis>)

Wildlife sanctuaries rescue, rehabilitate, reintroduce, and provide life-long care for orphaned and injured animals. Understanding a sanctuary’s patterns in arrival, mortality, and projected changes in population size can help managers plan carefully for future needs, as well as illuminate patterns in source populations of wildlife. We studied these dynamics for chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) in 11 sanctuaries of the Pan African Sanctuary Alliance (PASA). We analyzed historic demographic patterns and projected future population dynamics using an individual-based demographic model. From 2000 to 2006, the population in these sanctuaries has been growing at a rate of 15% per year. This growth is driven by arrivals of new individuals, with an average of 56 arrivals per year. The median age of the 760 chimpanzees living in these sanctuaries as of 2007 was 9 yr, with 76% of the population <15 yr. We found no significant difference in survivorship to age 20 between these chimpanzees and those maintained in North American accredited zoos. The size of the population in 20 yr is projected to be between 550 and 1800, depending on different assumptions about arrival and reintroduction rates. Projected shifts in age structure, including increases in the proportions of adolescent (9–19 yr of age) and older (35+) chimpanzees, may necessitate adjustments to management, veterinary care, and housing. This research illustrates how data on historic population dynamics can be modeled to inform future sanctuary capacity and management needs, allowing sanctuaries to plan better for their populations’ long-term care.     

Demographic and genetic invasion history of a 9-year-old roadside population of Bunias orientalis L. (Brassicaceae)

The population history of a 9-year-old roadside population of the invasive plant Bunias orientalis was reconstructed by demographic analysis including size, position, age (determined by herbchronology) and RAPD-PCR patterns of individual plants. We evaluated emerging patterns of population growth and genetic structure during a full period of population development under typical site conditions (anthropogenic disturbance) and their possible consequences for the invasion potential of the species. The population has grown rapidly and continuously (though with slowing geometric population increase) during the 9 years since its foundation, filling the space available in the study area. Genetic variation (RAPD markers) was already high in the founder cohorts and remained at the same level throughout population development (variance fluctuations <15%). Both results may be related to the mowing management at the site which seems to promote population growth of B. orientalis relative to other co-occuring species and to prevent the genetic drift and the development of spatial genetic structure that would be expected under isolation-by-distance models. Large founder plants had comparatively low genetic variance and were more closely related to younger cohorts than were small founder plants, indicating that selection acted during population development. Overall, the current anthropogenic disturbance regimes may contribute to high genetic variability by artificially increasing gene flow and thereby promoting the adaptability of invasive species to the often unpredictable conditions at disturbed sites. Our approach using retrospective demographic investigation allows the detection of spatio-temporal microscale patterns in genetic and phenotypic variation. Thus it allows a thorough understanding of local invasions of perennial herbaceous plants. Received: 23 November 1998 / Accepted: 14 April 1999     

The photoactivation energy of the visual pigment in two spectrally different populations of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mysis relicta</Emphasis> (Crustacea,Mysida)

We report the first study of the relation between the wavelength of maximum absorbance (λ_max) and the photoactivation energy (E _a) in invertebrate visual pigments. Two populations of the opossum shrimp Mysis relicta were compared. The two have been separated for 9,000 years and have adapted to different spectral environments (“Sea” and “Lake”) with porphyropsins peaking at λ_max=529 nm and 554 nm, respectively. The estimation of E _a was based on measurement of temperature effects on the spectral sensitivity of the eye. In accordance with theory (Stiles in Transactions of the optical convention of the worshipful company of spectacle makers. Spectacle Makers’ Co., London, 1948), relative sensitivity to long wavelengths increased with rising temperature. The estimates calculated from this effect are E _a,529=47.8±1.8 kcal/mol and E _a,554=41.5±0.7 kcal/mol (different at P<0.01). Thus the red-shift of λ_max in the “Lake” population, correlating with the long-wavelength dominated light environment, is achieved by changes in the opsin that decrease the energy gap between the ground state and the first excited state of the chromophore. We propose that this will carry a cost in terms of increased thermal noise, and that evolutionary adaptation of the visual pigment to the light environment is directed towards maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio rather than the quantum catch.     

Conservation of a rare plant requires different methods in different habitats: demographic lessons from Actaea elata

Understanding species decline and conserving endangered species requires demographic information, and variation in the environment may affect demography. Actaea elata is a globally rare, perennial herb found in a range of Pacific Northwest forest stand types that differ in canopy openness. Canopy openness increases reproductive output in this species and so was expected to have demographic impact. We performed a demographic analysis of A. elata in contrasting forest stands (broadleaved vs. coniferous) over two annual intervals, and predicted that population growth rate would be higher in the open-canopy broadleaved stand. Population growth was determined using stage-based matrix models, and the most influential transitions were identified using elasticity analyses. The finite rate of population increase (λ) was lower for the two transition periods at the broadleaved stand than at the coniferous stand (λ = 0.86 and 0.87 vs. 0.94 and 0.98), even though the former population was more fecund. The decline in the broadleaved stand reflects greater mortality and retrogression to previous stages, partly as a consequence of herbivory. In contrast, lower recruitment occurred in the coniferous stand, but there was also less mortality and retrogression. Our results suggest that management decisions for conservation of A. elata should be tailored to differing habitats, with a focus on preventing mortality in some populations and increasing recruitment in others.     

Characterising spatial and temporal variation in the finite rate of population increase across the northern range boundary of the annual grass <Emphasis Type="Italic">Vulpia fasciculata</Emphasis>

Understanding the factors that influence plant distributions is a considerable challenge for ecologists in the face of environmental change. Here, we quantify spatial and temporal variation in the finite rate of population increase of the annual grass Vulpia fasciculata. Specifically, we test the hypothesis that the northern range boundary is associated with finite rates of population increase of less than one. Seeds of three ecotypes of the annual grass V. fasciculata were introduced annually across a range of sites in Great Britain both within (11) and to the north (4) of its current range boundary in each of 4 years. Populations failed to establish at 17% of target sites due to disturbance. At the remaining target sites, the finite rate of population increase, λ, varied from 0.06 to 33.3 with a geometric mean of 1.88. Of the total variance in the rate of population growth, site and year effects accounted independently for 40% of the variation and in interaction for 50%; ecotype accounted for less than 5% of the variation. Variation in the weather between sites and years had little impact on plant performance, and there was no indication that the rate of population growth was lower to the north of the current range boundary. We conclude that current climatic conditions on the coast of Great Britain are not limiting the distribution of V. fasciculata and that seeds from across its current range have roughly equivalent colonising potential.