Do influenza epidemics spread to neighbouring countries?

This study compares the main causes of influenza epidemics reported in Czechoslovakia (CSR) and the German Democratic Republic (GDR) during the 9 seasons between 1980 and 1988. The influenza epidemics due to identical virus types were experienced in the two countries in the 1980, 1984 and 1986 seasons, and of these only the 1984 epidemic associated with A-strain influenza A/Chile/1/83 (H1N1) virus could be demonstrated to spread from the eastern parts of the CSR to the northern areas of the GDR. This implies that influenza epidemics due to identical drift variants spread only exceptionally from one country to the other during the period of observation, in spite of a busy tourist activity across the borderline.     

Epidemiological analysis of acute respiratory disease (ARD) and characteristics of the influenza epidemic in Bohemia during the season 1986/1987

The authors analyze the findings of epidemiological and virological surveillance of ARD in Bohemia during the season 1986/1987. In all, 57.5% of the Czech population was affected by acute respiratory disease (ARD). There were 5,950,832 cases reported, 124,444 complications (2.1% of the overall morbidity rate) and 5,374 deaths due to influenza, bronchitis, pneumonia and chronic pulmonary affection. The influenza epidemic commenced during the 48-th calendary week (CW) and lasted 5 weeks till the 52-nd CW. The epidemic was due to an influenza virus strain of the subtype A(H1N1) antigenically related to the drift variant A (Singapore) 6/86. Within an extremely short period of the epidemic, 1,094,865 influenza cases were reported and 22,313 cases of complications. 10.7% of the CSR population were affected during the epidemic in whose etiology noninfluenza respiratory viruses were significantly implicated, especially adenoviruses (41.7%) and the RS virus (26.9%). There was no excessive mortality in the course of the epidemic. The authors discuss the atypical nature of this particular influenza epidemic and the etiological role of respiratory viruses.     

Properties of current influenza A (H1N1) virus strains and the characteristics of the epidemics they induce

Three epidemics of influenza A (H1N1) occurring in 1977, 1979 and 1981 were studied. These epidemics were found to be gradually dying down, which was manifested by progressively decreasing morbidity rate, the frequency and intensity of seroconversions, as well as by a decrease in the duration of the epidemic period. Changes in the biological properties of influenza A (H1N1) virus were accompanied by changes in its antigenic properties. The drift of neuraminidase in the influenza A (H1N1) virus of 1981 towards increased relationship with neuraminidase in the virus of 1952 was observed, while hemagglutinin in the strains of each of these two groups retained its individual character.     

Etiology of influenza according to the data of serological diagnostics in hospital patients in St. Petersburg at the period of 1968 - 2000

The specific features of the etiology of influenza in children and adults at the period of the simultaneous circulation of two subtypes of influenza virus A, according to the results in the hemagglutination-inhibition reaction in 261,490 influenza and ARD patients hospitalized in St. Petersburg in the course of 32 years, were analyzed. The results of serological diagnostics was shown to correspond to the data of the identification of influenza viruses in Russia and all over the world. At the period of epidemics diseases caused by the main infective agents of the epidemics were detected in 11.0% - 51.0% of cases and by concomitant infective agents, in 0.6% - 12.4% of cases. After the reappearance of influenza virus A(H1N1) in circulation higher frequency of mixed forms of infection and the presence of competition between the subtypes of influenza virus A was noted. In young children a decrease in differences in the proportion of influenza cases, caused by the main and concomitant infective agents, as well as between the detection of influenza in epidemic and in summer periods, was registered.     

Influenza activity in Czechoslovakia and the USSR, 1980-1985

Between 1980 and 1985, Czechoslovakia had experienced 4 and the USSR 3 major influenza outbreaks. Of the 3 epidemic outbreaks in the USSR, 2 were associated with influenza B virus (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) and 1 with influenza A virus of the H3N2 subtype. In the USSR, influenza A (H1N1) virus never predominated as a cause of epidemic during the 5 years period. In Czechoslovakia, 2 epidemics (in the 1980/81 and 1983/84 seasons) were due to influenza A (H1N1) virus. The epidemic in the 1981/82 season had two waves of unequal heights and a mixed type B and subtype A (H3N2) etiology; a two-wave epidemic associated with isolates of influenza A (H1N1) and influenza B viruses was also recorded in the 1983/84 season. The influenza A (H3N2) epidemic in 1983 was of explosive character. All influenza viruses circulating in the two countries between 1980 and 1985 were of the same antigenic profile, but were isolated from the epidemics that occurred in different influenza seasons. The virological surveillance revealed strains of virus closely related to drift variants detected from outbreaks in 1977-1979 and the new variants A/Chile 1/83, A/Philippines 2/82, A/Caen 1/84 and B/USSR 100/83.     

Evaluation of the efficacy of split-product trivalent A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B influenza vaccines: protective efficacy

A total of 1,995 primary school children (1,464 vaccinees and 531 non-vaccinees) were studied to evaluate the protective efficacy of Tween-ether split trivalent A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and B influenza vaccines by comparison of the incidence of confirmed infection in two groups during 1980 to 1984. During the study period, epidemics caused by antigenically different influenza viruses, that is A(H1N1) epidemics in 1981 and 1984, a B epidemic in 1982 and an A(H3N2) epidemic in 1983, were experienced, and at the same time strains changed by antigenic drift were frequently isolated. In these epidemics, 61% to 87% of the children reported respiratory illnesses and 18% to 48% of the illnesses were influenza confirmed by seroconversion. Throughout these four epidemics, the incidence of confirmed infection among the vaccinees (7.8% to 33.8%) was 6.5% to 34.8% lower than that among the nonvaccinees (35.4% to 51.6%), demonstrating that the vaccine was effective (X2 = 76.34, P less than 0.001). However, this effectiveness was not seen in an epidemic in one of the entrant schools in 1984, possibly caused by a strain with intense antigenic drift. On the basis of data on incidence of various symptoms, duration of fever and the number of days of absence from class, it was considered that clinical symptoms in the vaccinees were milder than those in the nonvaccinees. When the titers of hemagglutination-inhibiting (HAI) antibody against the vaccine strains were measured, the protective level of HAI antibody giving less than or equal to 50% incidence of infection was 1:64, but it increased to 1:256 in the 1984 epidemic, reflecting the high rate of isolates with intense antigenic drift.     

The epidemic spread of the influenza A and B viruses in the USSR in 1985-1986

The data on the spread of influenza A and B in the autumn and winter of 1985-1986 are given. Three epidemics caused by all presently circulating viruses, B, A (H3N2) and A (H1N1), were registered in the USSR. Of these, the greatest one was the epidemic of influenza B; morbidity rate among the adult population during this epidemic was at the level with the morbidity rate characteristic of the epidemics registered at the period of 1962-1972, and morbidity rate among children, especially school children, was even higher.     

The use of influenza vaccines and remantadine for protection against influenza in industrial enterprises

The effectiveness of inactivated and live influenza vaccines and remantidin was studied in persons with different annual morbidity rate in influenza and acute respiratory diseases (ARD). After three and more years of immunization with the inactivated vaccine the number of seroconversions to viruses A (H1N1) and A (H3N2) in vaccinees decreased, respectively, from 75.0 to 26.0% and from 79.3 to 38.8%, and after an interval of two years or the alternation of inactivated and live vaccines the number of seroconversions increased to 57.9-64.0%. The significant decrease of morbidity rate in influenza and ARD were observed only in persons, having had frequent ARD in their medical history and immunized with live and inactivated vaccines simultaneously or separately with the alternation of these vaccines every year (the effectiveness index being equal to 1.7-1.8). At the period of epidemic the controlled administration of remantadin to persons with contraindications to immunization ensured the decrease of morbidity rate in influenza 1.5-1.8 times; in vaccinees, highly susceptible to ARD, the administration of remantadin decreased morbidity rate 2.3 times.     

The reactogenicity and safety of a multicomponent vaccine (VP-4) in the prevention of acute respiratory diseases in preschoolers

The reactogenicity and safety of poly-component vaccine (VP-4), prepared from the antigens of opportunistic bacteria, in the prophylaxis of acute respiratory diseases (ARD) in children aged 2.6-6 years. The vaccine was administered intranasally in 3 administrations and orally in 6-8 administrations at intervals of 3-4 days for a period of 24 +/- 4 days. The prophylaxis of ARD with the use of VP-4 was carried out in 168 children in 4 children's preschool institutions. The control group was made up of 120 children, attending the same institutions. The study revealed that VP-4 had low reactogenicity and induced short-time systemic and local reactions (common cold, cough). The administration of VP-4 at a period of the epidemic rise on influenza and ARD morbidity did not lead to an increase in the frequency and duration of ARD in the vaccinees, as well as to the exacerbation of chronic infection and the allergization of the body.     

Assessment of the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccines for adults

In 9 controlled epidemiological observations (1977-1984) the effectiveness of modern Soviet whole-virion vaccines was studied in organized groups of adults and at industrial enterprises. During the epidemic outbreaks of influenza of different etiology and intensity morbidity rate in influenza and acute respiratory diseases was shown to decrease 1.1-2.2 times among the vaccinees, depending on the correspondence of epidemic and vaccine influenza strains. The absence of influenza virus B in inactivated influenza vaccines was the reason for their low effectiveness during influenza outbreaks of mixed etiology B + A (H1N1).     

Results of virological and serological studies of three influenza A Hong-Kong epidemics in Leningrad.

An analysis of morbidity of the population in the course of 3 influenza A/Hong-Kong epidemics showed a pronounced decrease in influenza affection of adult population in the last epidemic in 1971--1972. Comparative studies of the diagnostic value of CFR and HIT demonstrated identical sensitivity of CFR as a method of influenza diagnostics in both the epidemic and interepidemic periods. HIT was suitable for the detection of influenza only in the epidemic period. In the interepidemic period, the percentage of influenza infection diagnosed by means of HIT ammounted to only 23--24 of all serologically confirmed cases of influenza. The highest percentage of virus isolation was observed when material from patients with serologically confirmed influenza was used. All strains of influenza A virus isolated in 1969 and 1970 were similar in their sensitivity to inhibitors of animal sera. During the last influenza epidemic, 2 of the 136 isolated strains were found to be resistant to gamma inhibitors and highly sensitive to the inhibitors showed their close relationship to gamma inhibitors. Antigenic analysis of the influenza A strains isolated during the 3 influenza epidemics revealed changes in the antigenic structure of the agents of the influenza epidemic in Leningrad in comparison with the standard strain A/Hong-Kong/I/68 (H3N2).     

Comparison of influenza outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia induced by 2009 yearly new variant of A(H1N1) influenza virus

The aim of the work is the comparison of the epidemiology of influenza and acute respiratory virus infections(ARVI)in the Republic of Kazakhstan with the corresponding influenza epidemic in Russia induced by influenza pandemic virus A/California/07/2009 in 2009. Data on influenza and ARVI from the Republic of Kazakhstan and Federal Center of influenza was collected and investigated over the course of several weeks from hospitalized patients with the same diagnosis among all population and in age groups on 16 territories of Kazakhstan and in 49 major cities of Russia. The epidemic in Kazakhstan resembled the Russian epidemic in terms of its abnormally early beginning,expression of monoaetiology,the spread of the epidemic into all territories and start of the epidemics among adult population. High percentage of hospitalized people and lethal outcome were registered in this epidemic. Similarity of epidemic process character in corresponding border-line territories of both countries was found out.     

Epidemiology of the Hong Kong/68 Variant of Influenza A2 in Britain

Two influenza epidemics in Britain in 1968-9 and 1969-70, were due to the Hong Kong/68 variant of influenza A2 virus. The first epidemic was prolonged with low morbidity and mortality rates; the second was sharp with high rates. The difference between total morbidity and mortality in the two epidemics, however, was less than it appeared to be—the estimated excess morbidity and mortality due to all causes in 1969-70 was only about 50% greater than in 1968-9.Antibody studies showed that about one-quarter of two groups of adults investigated were infected in the first epidemic and about one-third in the second. After the two epidemics about one-third still had no antibody to the A2/Hong Kong/68 virus.     

Bacterial lysate (I.R.S. 19) applied intranasally in the prevention of acute respiratory diseases in children: a randomized double-blind study

A controlled trial was undertaken to test I.R.S. 19 (a commercial intranasal spray) versus placebo in the prevention of acute respiratory diseases (ARD) in 825 maternity-school children in three cities; another control group of 327 children received neither I.R.S. 19 nor placebo. The spraying was done twice a day for a total of 20 spraying days in each child; sprayings were interrupted on weekends and during absence, the mean spraying period being 34 calendar days. During the 6-month study (1 November to 30 April) the children were monitored for ARD morbidity causing absence from school. A total of 1,585 such ARD cases occurred; their etiology was not investigated. The indices evaluated were: total duration of ARD-associated absence, ARD incidence, and mean duration of one illness. With the administration schedule used, I.R.S. 19 did not, in an overall evaluation, surpass placebo in any of these indices in either normal children or a subgroup of children with presumed enhanced ARD susceptibility.     

Immunological precursors of influenza epidemics]

The authors studied the immuno-epidemiological manifestations of ciculation and variability of the influenza virus during the periods preceding the officiallly recorded rise of the incidence of this disease. The following epidemic precursors were revealed: a) an increase of the number of persons who fell sick with subclinical form of the disease, accompanied by a rise in the population of the antibody level to the type of influenza virus whose latest variant later caused an epidemic morbidity elevation; b) a progressive predominance of the causative agent of the developing epidemic in the etiology of influenza; c) a growth of the collective immunity indices from the "minimal" to the "critical" levels; d) an increase of the sero-conversion multiplicity and of the antibody level in those who sustained the disease during the epidemic development. These precursors could be revealed at the period of from 1 1/2 to 6 months before the beginning of the morbidity growth caused by viruses of endogenous or of exogenous origin.     

Influenza epidemics in the USSR and Czechoslovakia in 1979-1984

In this work materials characterizing the appearance and development of influenza epidemic at the territories of the USSR and the Czech Socialist Republic are presented, the common features and differences of the epidemic process in both countries are recorded. The work shows that in both countries the appearance of this epidemic is caused by the same virus. In most cases the epidemic started earlier and lasted longer in the USSR, but morbidity rate during the epidemic was, on the whole, higher in the Czech Socialist Republic. Similarity in the course of the primary period of the epidemic processes from their appearance to their maximum rise was observed. In both countries the maximum rise of morbidity rate was registered on weeks 3-4 from the beginning of the epidemic.     

Transitions from injection-drug-use-concentrated to self-sustaining heterosexual HIV epidemics: patterns in the international data

Background

Injecting drug use continues to be a primary driver of HIV epidemics in many parts of the world. Many people who inject drugs (PWID) are sexually active, so it is possible that high-seroprevalence HIV epidemics among PWID may initiate self-sustaining heterosexual transmission epidemics.

Methods

Fourteen countries that had experienced high seroprevalence (<20%) HIV epidemics among PWID and had reliable data for injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual cases of HIV or AIDS were identified. Graphs of newly reported HIV or AIDS cases among PWID and heterosexuals were constructed to identify temporal relationships between the two types of epidemics. The year in which newly reported cases among heterosexuals surpassed newly reported cases among PWID, aspects of the epidemic curves, and epidemic case histories were analyzed to assess whether it was “plausible” or “highly unlikely” that the HIV epidemic among PWID might have initiated the heterosexual epidemic in each country.

Results

Transitions have occurred in 11 of the 14 countries. Two types of temporal relationships between IDU and heterosexual HIV epidemics were identified, rapid high incidence transitions vs. delayed, low incidence transitions. In six countries it appears “plausible” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic, and in five countries it appears “highly unlikely” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic. A rapid decline in incidence among PWID after the peak year of new cases and national income were the best predictors of the “highly unlikely” initiation of a heterosexual epidemic.

Discussion

Transitions from IDU concentrated epidemics to heterosexual epidemics are common in countries with high seroprevalence among PWID though there are distinct types of transitions. Interventions to immediately reduce HIV incidence among PWID may reduce the likelihood that an IDU epidemic may initiate a heterosexual epidemic.     

Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics

Epidemiologic and economic effectiveness of school closure during influenza epidemics and pandemics is discussed. Optimal effect of school closure is observed when this measure is taken at the start of the epidemic or pandemic and for a sufficiently long time. School closure during high morbidity among schoolchildren, in the middle (at the peak) and by the end of epidemic or pandemic does not influence significantly the spread of influenza or morbidity. Significant economic losses and other negative consequences of school closure are noted. School closure may be the most appropriate during the emergence of influenza pandemic when the pandemic vaccine is not yet available, however timely mass immunization of schoolchildren against influenza may be a more appropriate measure than school closure for the reduction of influenza morbidity and spread during seasonal influenza epidemics.     

Immunogenicity and the protective effectiveness of the subunit trivalent influenza vaccine Grippovac

In the process of the immunological approbation of several experimental batches of the triyalent subunit influenza vaccine Grippovac, the pronounced immunogenicity of the antigens of all strains contained in the vaccine was established; most of the vaccinees were found to retain sufficiently high antibody titers for a year, and the essential total increase of antibody titers was found to occur after a single booster immunization. The serological checking of the diagnosed cases of influenza among immunized and nonimmunized children, carried out in two boarding schools during the influenza epidemic in the winter of 1984-1985 provided the proofs of the high effectiveness of Grippovac in preventing viral influenza, types A and B: the decrease of influenza morbidity among the immunized children reached 79,5-67,2-66,5% and the total morbidity rate in influenza in these two boarding scholls dropped, on the average, 3,0-3,5 times.     

Age Distribution of Influenza Like Illness Cases during Post-Pandemic A(H3N2): Comparison with the Twelve Previous Seasons,in France

In France, the 2011–2012 influenza epidemic was characterized by the circulation of antigenically drifted influenza A(H3N2) viruses and by an increased disease severity and mortality among the elderly, with respect to the A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks. Whether the epidemiology of influenza in France differed between the 2011–2012 epidemic and the previous outbreaks is unclear. Here, we analyse the age distribution of influenza like illness (ILI) cases attended in general practice during the 2011–2012 epidemic, and compare it with that of the twelve previous epidemic seasons. Influenza like illness data were obtained through a nationwide surveillance system based on sentinel general practitioners. Vaccine effectiveness was also estimated. The estimated number of ILI cases attended in general practice during the 2011–2012 was lower than that of the past twelve epidemics. The age distribution was characteristic of previous A(H3N2)-dominated outbreaks: school-age children were relatively spared compared to epidemics (co-)dominated by A(H1N1) and/or B viruses (including the 2009 pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks), while the proportion of adults over 30 year-old was higher. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (54%, 95% CI (48, 60)) was in the lower range for A(H3N2) epidemics. In conclusion, the age distribution of ILI cases attended in general practice seems to be not different between the A(H3N2) pre-pandemic and post-pandemic epidemics. Future researches including a more important number of ILI epidemics and confirmed virological data of influenza and other respiratory pathogens are necessary to confirm these results.