Demography can favour female-advantageous alleles

When female fecundity is relatively independent of male abundance, while male reproduction is proportional to female abundance, females have a larger effect on population dynamics than males (i.e. female demographic dominance). This population dynamic phenomenon might not appear to influence evolution, because male and female genomes still contribute equally much to the next generation. However, here we examine two evolutionary scenarios to provide a proof of principle that spatial structure can make female demographic dominance matter. Our two simulation models combine dispersal evolution with local adaptation subjected to intralocus sexual conflict and environmentally driven sex ratio biases, respectively. Both models have equilibria where one environment (without being intrinsically poorer) has so few reproductive females that trait evolution becomes disproportionately determined by those environments where females survive better (intralocus sexual conflict model), or where daughters are overproduced (environmental sex determination model). Surprisingly, however, the two facts that selection favours alleles that benefit females, and population growth is improved when female fitness is high, together do not imply that all measures of population performance are improved. The sex-specificity of the source–sink dynamics predicts that populations can evolve to fail to persist in habitats where alleles do poorly when expressed in females.     

Spatial dynamics in model plant communities: what do we really know?

A variety of models have shown that spatial dynamics and small-scale endogenous heterogeneity (e.g., forest gaps or local resource depletion zones) can change the rate and outcome of competition in communities of plants or other sessile organisms. However, the theory appears complicated and hard to connect to real systems. We synthesize results from three different kinds of models: interacting particle systems, moment equations for spatial point processes, and metapopulation or patch models. Studies using all three frameworks agree that spatial dynamics need not enhance coexistence nor slow down dynamics; their effects depend on the underlying competitive interactions in the community. When similar species would coexist in a nonspatial habitat, endogenous spatial structure inhibits coexistence and slows dynamics. When a dominant species disperses poorly and the weaker species has higher fecundity or better dispersal, competition-colonization trade-offs enhance coexistence. Even when species have equal dispersal and per-generation fecundity, spatial successional niches where the weaker and faster-growing species can rapidly exploit ephemeral local resources can enhance coexistence. When interspecific competition is strong, spatial dynamics reduce founder control at large scales and short dispersal becomes advantageous. We describe a series of empirical tests to detect and distinguish among the suggested scenarios.     

Sexual reproduction and diversity: Connection between sexual selection and biological communities via population dynamics

Sexual reproduction is a mysterious phenomenon. Most animals and plants invest in sexual reproduction, even though it is more costly than asexual reproduction. Theoretical studies suggest that occasional or conditional use of sexual reproduction, involving facultative switching between sexual and asexual reproduction, is the optimal reproductive strategy. However, obligate sexual reproduction is common in nature. Recent studies suggest that the evolution of facultative sexual reproduction is prevented by males that coerce females into sexual fertilization; thus, sexual reproduction has the potential to enforce costs on a given species. Here, the effect of sex on biodiversity is explored by evaluating the reproductive costs arising from sex. Sex provides atypical selection pressure that favors traits that increase fertilization success, even at the expense of population growth rates, that is, sexual selection. The strength of sexual selection depends on the density of a given species. Sexual selection often causes strong negative effects on the population growth rates of species that occur at high density. Conversely, a species that reduces its density is released from this negative effect, and so increases its growth rate. Thus, this negative density-dependent effect on population growth that arises from sexual selection could be used to rescue endangered species from extinction, prevent the overgrowth of common species and promote the coexistence of competitive species. Recent publications on sexual reproduction provide several predictions related to the evolution of reproductive strategies, which is an important step toward integrating evolutionary dynamics, demographic dynamics and community dynamics.     

The coevolution of parasites with host-acquired immunity and the evolution of sex

Abstract. Here I present a deterministic model of the coevolution of parasites with the acquired immunity of their hosts, a system in which coevolutionary oscillations can be maintained. These dynamics can confer an advantage to sexual reproduction within the parasite population, but the effect is not strong enough to outweigh the twofold cost of sex. The advantage arises primarily because sexual reproduction impedes the response to fluctuating epistasis and not because it facilitates the response to directional selection—in fact, sexual reproduction often slows the response to directional selection. Where the cost of sexual reproduction is small, a polymorphism can be maintained between the sexuals and the asexuals. A polymorphism is maintained in which the advantage gained due to recombination is balanced by the cost of sex. At much higher costs of sex, a polymorphism between the asexual and sexual populations can still be maintained if the asexuals do not have a full complement of genotypes available to them, because the asexuals only outcompete those sexuals with which they share the same selected alleles. However, over time we might expect the asexuals to amass the full array of genotypes, thus permanently eliminating sexuals from the population. The sexuals may avoid this fate if the parasite population is finite. Although the model presented here describes the coevolution of parasites with the acquired immune responses of their hosts, it can be compared with other host-parasite models that have more traditionally been used to investigate Red Queen theories of the evolution of sex.     

Concurrent niche and neutral processes in the competition-colonization model of species coexistence

The importance of neutral dynamics is contentiously debated in the ecological literature. This debate focuses on neutral theory's assumption of fitness equivalency among individuals, which conflicts with stabilizing fitness that promotes coexistence through niche differentiation. I take advantage of competition-colonization trade-offs between species of aquatic micro-organisms (protozoans and rotifers) to show that equalizing and stabilizing mechanisms can operate simultaneously. Competition trials between species with similar colonization abilities were less likely to result in competitive exclusion than for species further apart. While the stabilizing mechanism (colonization differences) facilitates coexistence at large spatial scales, species with similar colonization abilities also exhibited local coexistence probably due to fitness similarities allowing weak stabilizing mechanisms to operate. These results suggest that neutral- and niche-based mechanisms of coexistence can simultaneously operate at differing temporal and spatial scales, and such a spatially explicit view of coexistence may be one way to reconcile niche and neutral dynamics.     

How populations persist when asexuality requires sex: the spatial dynamics of coping with sperm parasites

The twofold cost of sex implies that sexual and asexual reproduction do not coexist easily. Asexual forms tend to outcompete sexuals but may eventually suffer higher extinction rates, creating tension between short- and long-term advantages of different reproductive modes. The 'short-sightedness' of asexual reproduction takes a particularly intriguing form in gynogenetic species complexes, in which an asexual species requires sperm from a related sexual host species to trigger embryogenesis. Asexuals are then predicted to outcompete their host, after which neither species can persist. We examine whether spatial structure can explain continued coexistence of the species complex, and assess the evidence based on data on the Amazon molly (Poecilia formosa). A modification of the Levins metapopulation model creates two regions of good prospects for coexistence, connected by a region of poorer patch occupancy levels. In the first case, mate discrimination and/or niche differentiation keep local extinction rates low, and most patches contain both species; the other possibility resembles host-parasite dynamics where parasites frequently drive the host locally extinct. Several dynamical features are counterintuitive and relate to the parasitic nature of interactions in the species complex: for example, high local extinction rates of the asexual species can be beneficial for its own persistence. This creates a link from the evolution of sexual reproduction to that of prudent predation.     

Sexual reproduction and population dynamics: the role of polygyny and demographic sex differences.

Most models of population dynamics do not take sexual reproduction into account (i.e., they do not consider the role of males). However, assumptions behind this practice--that no demographic sex differences exist and males are always abundant enough to fertilize all the females--are usually not justified in natural populations. On the contrary, demographic sex differences are common, especially in polygynous species. Previous models that consider sexual reproduction report a stabilizing effect through mixing of different genotypes, thus suggesting a decrease in the propensity for complex of dynamics in sexually reproducing populations. Here we show that considering the direct role of males in reproduction and density dependence leads to the conclusion that a two-sex model is not necessarily more stable compared with the corresponding one-sex model. Although solutions exist where sexual reproduction has a stabilizing effect even when no genotypic variability is included (primarily when associated with monogamy), factors like polygyny, sex differences in survival or density dependence, and possible alterations of the primary sex ratio (the Trivers-Willard mechanism), may enlarge the parametric region of complex dynamics. Sexual reproduction therefore does not necessarily increase the stability of population dynamics and can have destabilizing effects, at least in species with complicated mating systems and sexual dimorphism.     

Competition and evolutionary stability of plants in a spatially structured habitat

We modelled the population dynamics of two types of plants with limited dispersal living in a lattice structured habitat. Each site of the square lattice model was either occupied by an individual or vacant. Each individual reproduced to its neighbors. We derived a criterion for the invasion of a rare type into a population composed of a resident type based on a pair-approximation method, in which the dynamics of both average densities and the nearest neighbor correlations were considered. Based on this invasibility criterion, we showed that, when there is a tradeoff between birth and death rates, the evolutionarily stable type is the one that has the highest ratio of birth rate to mortality. If these types are different species, they form segregated spatial patterns in the lattice model in which intraspecific competitive interactions occur more frequently than interspecific interactions. However, stable coexistence is not possible in the lattice model contrary to results from completely mixed population models. This clearly shows that the casual conclusion, based on traditional well mixed population models, that different species can coexist if intraspecific competition is stronger than interspecific competition, does not hold for spatially structured population models.     

Active dispersal is differentially affected by inter‐ and intraspecific competition in closely related nematode species

Competition is one of the main drivers of dispersal, which can be an important mechanism to achieve permanent or temporal coexistence of multiple species. This coexistence can be achieved by a dispersal‐competition tradeoff, spatial store effects or neutral dynamics. Here we test the effect of inter‐ and intraspecific competition on dispersal of four species of the marine nematode species complex Litoditis marina. A previous study in closed microcosms without a possibility for dispersal had demonstrated pronounced interspecific competition, leading to the exclusion of one species. We now investigated whether 1) the dispersal is affected by interspecific interactions, by intraspecific competition (density) or by food availability, 2) the dispersal dynamics influence assemblage composition and can lead to co‐occurrence of the species, and 3) the abiotic environment (here salinity) can affect these dynamics. We show that density is the main driver for dispersal in two of the four species. Dispersal of a third species always started at the same time irrespective of density, whereas in the fourth species interspecific interactions accelerated dispersal. Remarkably, this fourth species was not a strong competitor, suggesting that a dispersal–competition tradeoff does not explain the observed coexistence. Salinity did not alter the timing of dispersal when interspecific interactions were present but did affect assemblage composition. Consequently, spatial store effects may influence coexistence. All four species co‐occurred in fairly stable abundances throughout the present experiment indicating the importance of species specific dispersal strategies for coexistence. Co‐occurrence can be facilitated because competition is postponed or avoided by dispersal. Neutral dynamics also played a role as intra‐ and interspecific competition were of similar importance in three of the four species. We conclude that dispersal is a driver of the coexistence of closely related nematode species, and that population density and interspecific interactions shape these dynamics.     

Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host–pathogen interactions

Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species’ populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host–pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual‐based model of host–pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host''s explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life‐history events affect host–pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts’ biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host–pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat‐dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host–pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.     

Niche partitioning at multiple scales facilitates coexistence among mosquito larvae

A theoretical dichotomy in community ecology distinguishes between mechanisms that stabilize species coexistence and those that cause neutral drift. Stable coexistence is predicted to occur in communities where competing species have niche-partitioning mechanisms that reduce interspecific competition. Neutral communities are predicted to be structured by stochastic processes that are not influenced by species identity, but that may be influenced by priority effects and dispersal limitation. Recent developments have suggested that neutral interactions may be more common at local scales, while niche structuring may be more common at larger scales. We tested for mechanisms that could promote either stable coexistence or neutral drift in a bromeliad-dwelling mosquito community by evaluating A) if a hypothesized within-bromeliad niche partitioning mechanism occurs in the community, B) if this mechanism correlates with local species co-occurrence patterns, and C) if patterns of coexistence at the larger (metacommunity) scale were consistent with those at the local scale. We found that mosquitoes in this community do partition space within containers, and that species with the strongest potential for competition co-occurred least. Species with overlapping spatial niches minimized co-occurrence by specialising in bromeliads of differing sizes, effectively changing the scale at which they coexist. In contrast, we found no evidence to support neutral dynamics in mosquito communities at either scale. In this community, a niche-based mechanism that is predicted to stabilize species coexistence explains co-occurrence patterns within and among bromeliads.     

Eco‐evolutionary feedback promotes Red Queen dynamics and selects for sex in predator populations

Although numerous hypotheses exist to explain the overwhelming presence of sexual reproduction across the tree of life, we still cannot explain its prevalence when considering all inherent costs involved. The Red Queen hypothesis states that sex is maintained because it can create novel genotypes with a selective advantage. This occurs when the interactions between species induce frequent environmental change. Here, we investigate whether coevolution and eco‐evolutionary feedback dynamics in a predator‐prey system allows for indirect selection and maintenance of sexual reproduction in the predator. Combining models and chemostat experiments of a rotifer‐algae system we show a continuous feedback between population and trait change along with recurrent shifts from selection by predation and competition for a limited resource. We found that a high propensity for sex was indirectly selected and was maintained in rotifer populations within environments containing these eco‐evolutionary dynamics; whereas within environments under constant conditions, predators evolved rapidly to lower levels of sex. Thus, our results indicate that the influence of eco‐evolutionary feedback dynamics on the overall evolutionary change has been underestimated.     

Analyses of spatial patterns and population processes of clonal plants

The nonrandom spatial structure of terrestrial plants is formed by ecological interactions and reproduction with a limited dispersal range, and in turn this may strongly affect population dynamics and population genetics. The traditional method of modelling in population ecology is either to neglect spatial pattern (e.g. in transition matrix models) or to do straightforward computer simulation. We review here three analytical mothods to deal with plant populations in a lattice-structured habitat, which propagate both by seeds that scatter over the whole habitat and by vegetative reproduction (producing runners, rhizomes, etc.) to neighboring vacant sites. [1]Dynamics of global and local densities: Dynamical equations of population density considering nearest-neighbor correlation (spatial clumping) are developed as the joint dynamics of global average density and local density (comparable to mean crowding) based onpair approximation. If there is a linear trade-off between seed production and vegetative reproduction, the equilibrium abundance of the population may be maximized by engaging both means of reproduction. This result is accurately predicted by the pair approximation method, but not by mean-field approximation (neglect of spatial structure). [2]Cluster size distributions: Using global and local densities obtained by pair approximation, we predicted cluster size distribution, i.e. the number of clusters of occupied sites of various sizes. [3]Clonal identity probability decreasing with distance: Multi-locus measurement of allozymes or other neutral molecular markers tells us whether or not a given pair of individuals belong to the same clone. From the pattern of clonal identity probability decreasing with the distance between ramets, we can estimate the relative importance of two modes of reproduction: vegetative propagation and sexual seed production.     

How to go extinct by mating too much: population consequences of male mate choice and efficiency in a sexual–asexual species complex

Selection acting on individuals is not predicted to maximize population persistence, yet examples that explicitly quantify conflicts between individual and population level benefits are scarce. One such conflict occurs over sexual reproduction because of the cost of sex: sexual populations that suffer the cost of producing males have only half the growth rate compared to asexuals. Male behaviour can additionally impact population dynamics in a variety of ways, and here we study an example where the impact is unusually clear: the riddle of persistence of sperm‐dependent sexual–asexual species complexes. Here, a sexually reproducing host species coexists with an ameiotically reproducing all‐female sperm parasite. Sexual–asexual coexistence should not be stable because the proportion of asexually reproducing females will rapidly increase and the relative abundance of the sexually reproducing host species will decline. A severe shortage of males will lead to sperm limitation for sexual and asexual females and the system collapses. Male mate choice could reduce the reproductive potential of the asexual species and thus potentially prevent the collapse. In the gynogenetic (sperm‐dependent parthenogenetic) Amazon molly Poecilia formosa and its host (P. latipinna or P. mexicana), males discriminate against asexual females to some extent. Using a population‐dynamical model, we examine the population dynamics of this species complex with varying strengths of male discrimination ability and efficiency with which they locate females and produce sperm. The sexual species would benefit from stronger discrimination, thus preventing being displaced by the asexual females. However, males would be required to evolve preferences that are probably too strong to be purely based upon selection acting on individuals. We conclude that male behaviour does not fully prevent but delays extinction, yet this is highly relevant because low local extinction rates strongly promote coexistence as a metapopulation.     

Population size dependence, competitive coexistence and habitat destruction

1. Spatial dynamics can lead to coexistence of competing species even with strong asymmetric competition under the assumption that the inferior competitor is a better colonizer given equal rates of extinction. Patterns of habitat fragmentation may alter competitive coexistence under this assumption.
2. Numerical models were developed to test for the previously ignored effect of population size on competitive exclusion and on extinction rates for coexistence of competing species. These models neglect spatial arrangement.
3. Cellular automata were developed to test the effect of population size on competitive coexistence of two species, given that the inferior competitor is a better colonizer. The cellular automata in the present study were stochastic in that they were based upon colonization and extinction probabilities rather than deterministic rules.
4. The effect of population size on competitive exclusion at the local scale was found to have little consequence for the coexistence of competitors at the metapopulation (or landscape) scale. In contrast, population size effects on extinction at the local scale led to much reduced landscape scale coexistence compared to simulations not including localized population size effects on extinction, especially in the cellular automata models. Spatially explicit dynamics of the cellular automata vs. deterministic rates of the numerical model resulted in decreased survival of both species. One important finding is that superior competitors that are widespread can become extinct before less common inferior competitors because of limited colonization.
5. These results suggest that population size–extinction relationships may play a large role in competitive coexistence. These results and differences are used in a model structure to help reconcile previous spatially explicit studies which provided apparently different results concerning coexistence of competing species.     

Coexistence of cycling and dispersing consumer species: Armstrong and McGehee in space

Two competing consumer species may coexist using a single homogeneous resource when the more efficient consumer--the one having the lowest equilibrium resource density--has a more nonlinear functional response that generates consumer-resource cycles. We extend this model of nonequilibrium coexistence, as proposed by Armstrong and McGehee, by putting the interaction into a spatial context using two frameworks: a spatially explicit individual-based model and a spatially implicit metapopulation model. We find that Armstrong and McGehee's mechanism of coexistence can operate in a spatial context. However, individual-based simulations suggest that decreased dispersal restricts coexistence in most cases, whereas differential equation models of metapopulations suggest that a low rate of dispersal between subpopulations often increases the coexistence region. This difference arises in part because of two potentially opposing effects on coexistence due to the asynchrony in the temporal dynamics at different locations. Asynchrony implies that the less efficient species is more likely to be favored in some spatial locations at any given time, which broadens the conditions for coexistence. On the other hand, asynchrony and dispersal can also reduce the amplitude of local population cycles, which restricts coexistence. The relative influence of these two effects depends on details of the population dynamics and the representation of space. Our results also demonstrate that coexistence via the Armstrong-McGehee mechanism can occur even when there is little variation in the global densities of either the consumers or the resource, suggesting that empirical studies of the mechanisms should measure densities on several spatial scales.     

Linking immunological and epidemiological dynamics of HIV: the case of super-infection

In this paper, a two-strain model that links immunological and epidemiological dynamics across scales is formulated. On the within-host scale, the two strains eliminate each other with the strain with the larger immunological reproduction persisting. However, on the population scale superinfection is possible, with the strain with larger immunological reproduction number super-infecting the strain with the smaller immunological reproduction number. The two models are linked through the age-since-infection structure of the epidemiological variables. In addition, the between-host transmission and the disease-induced death rate depend on the within-host viral load. The immunological reproduction numbers, the epidemiological reproduction numbers and invasion reproduction numbers are computed. Besides the disease-free equilibrium, there are two population-level strain one and strain two isolated equilibria, as well as a population-level coexistence equilibrium when both invasion reproduction numbers are greater than one. The single-strain population-level equilibria are locally asymptotically stable suggesting that in the absence of superinfection oscillations do not occur, a result contrasting previous studies of HIV age-since-infection structured models. Simulations suggest that the epidemiological reproduction number and HIV population prevalence are monotone functions of the within-host parameters with reciprocal trends. In particular, HIV medications that decrease within-host viral load also increase overall population prevalence. The effect of the immunological parameters on the population reproduction number and prevalence is more pronounced when the initial viral load is lower.     

Hutchinson revisited: Patterns of density regulation and the coexistence of strong competitors

Ecologists have long been searching for mechanisms of species coexistence, particularly since G.E. Hutchinson raised the ‘paradox of the plankton’. A promising approach to solve this paradox and to explain the coexistence of many species with strong niche overlap is to consider over-compensatory density regulation with its ability to generate endogenous population fluctuations.Previous work has analysed the role of over-compensation in coexistence based on analytical approaches. Using a spatially explicit time-discrete simulation model, we systematically explore the dynamics and conditions for coexistence of two species. We go beyond the analytically accessible range of models by studying the whole range of density regulation from under- to very strong over-compensation and consider the impact of spatial structure and temporal disturbances. In particular, we investigate how coexistence can emerge in different types of population growth models.We show that two strong competitors are able to coexist if at least one species exhibits over-compensation. Analysing the time series of population dynamics reveals how the differential responses to density fluctuations of the two competitors lead to coexistence: The over-compensator generates density fluctuations but is the inferior competitor at strong amplitudes of those fluctuations; the competitor, therefore, becomes frequent and dampens the over-compensator's amplitudes, but it becomes inferior under dampened fluctuations.These species interactions cause a dynamic alternation of community states with long-term persistence of both species. We show that a variety of population growth models is able to reproduce this coexistence although the particular parameter ranges differ among the models. Spatial structure influences the probability of coexistence but coexistence is maintained for a broad range of dispersal parameters.The flexibility and robustness of coexistence through over-compensation emphasize the importance of nonlinear density dependence for species interactions, and they also highlight the potential of applying more flexible models than the classical Lotka-Volterra equations in community ecology.     

Spatial heterogeneity, source-sink dynamics, and the local coexistence of competing species

Patch occupancy theory predicts that a trade-off between competition and dispersal should lead to regional coexistence of competing species. Empirical investigations, however, find local coexistence of superior and inferior competitors, an outcome that cannot be explained within the patch occupancy framework because of the decoupling of local and spatial dynamics. We develop two-patch metapopulation models that explicitly consider the interaction between competition and dispersal. We show that a dispersal-competition trade-off can lead to local coexistence provided the inferior competitor is superior at colonizing empty patches as well as immigrating among occupied patches. Immigration from patches that the superior competitor cannot colonize rescues the inferior competitor from extinction in patches that both species colonize. Too much immigration, however, can be detrimental to coexistence. When competitive asymmetry between species is high, local coexistence is possible only if the dispersal rate of the inferior competitor occurs below a critical threshold. If competing species have comparable colonization abilities and the environment is otherwise spatially homogeneous, a superior ability to immigrate among occupied patches cannot prevent exclusion of the inferior competitor. If, however, biotic or abiotic factors create spatial heterogeneity in competitive rankings across the landscape, local coexistence can occur even in the absence of a dispersal-competition trade-off. In fact, coexistence requires that the dispersal rate of the overall inferior competitor not exceed a critical threshold. Explicit consideration of how dispersal modifies local competitive interactions shifts the focus from the patch occupancy approach with its emphasis on extinction-colonization dynamics to the realm of source-sink dynamics. The key to coexistence in this framework is spatial variance in fitness. Unlike in the patch occupancy framework, high rates of dispersal can undermine coexistence, and hence diversity, by reducing spatial variance in fitness.     

Diversity and Coexistence of Sonoran Desert Winter Annuals

Abstract Annual plants make up ca. 50% of local floras in the Sonoran Desert. As with most plant communities, there is no shortage of potential coexistence generating mechanisms, and several mechanisms are likely contributors to coexistence at different spatial scales in the Sonoran Desert, e.g. spatial heterogeneity and the behaviors of predators and grazers. We explore one mechanism of likely importance for desert annuals: temporal environmental variation. It is widely recognized that coexistence is promoted by temporal variation if species such as desert annuals have "temporal niches" in the sense that each has years in which it out-performs the others. It is usually suggested that some resistent life-history stage, such as a seed bank, is also necessary to buffer each species from the negative population dynamic impact of unfavorable years. Using ten years of demographic data, we document the large year-to-year variation in population dynamics of desert annuals and show that ten species respond differently to temporal variation. Competition experiments document reversals in competitive superiority. Also, all species have a between-year seed bank, such that only a proportion of the seed bank germinates in any given year. Thus this system meets our intuitive requirements for variance-based coexistence. Dynamic models of this system demonstrate that subtle aspects of the species biology determine whether coexistence criteria are actually met. Specifically, variable germination fractions are required and coexistence is most readily favored with "predictive" germination. Germination fractions in this system do vary among years in a species specific fashion. Also, for the three years of available data, germination was predictive, in that each species had greater germination fractions in year of greater demographic success. Thus all of the population dynamic elements necessary for temporal variance mediated coexistence seem to be present in this system.