The Bias and Signal Attenuation Present in Conventional Pollen-Based Climate Reconstructions as Assessed by Early Climate Data from Minnesota,USA

The inference of past temperatures from a sedimentary pollen record depends upon the stationarity of the pollen-climate relationship. However, humans have altered vegetation independent of changes to climate, and consequently modern pollen deposition is a product of landscape disturbance and climate, which is different from the dominance of climate-derived processes in the past. This problem could cause serious signal distortion in pollen-based reconstructions. In the north-central United States, direct human impacts have strongly altered the modern vegetation and hence the pollen rain since Euro-American settlement in the mid-19^th century. Using instrumental temperature data from the early 1800s from Fort Snelling (Minnesota), we assessed the signal distortion and bias introduced by using the conventional method of inferring temperature from pollen assemblages in comparison to a calibration set from pre-settlement pollen assemblages and the earliest instrumental climate data. The early post-settlement calibration set provides more accurate reconstructions of the 19^th century instrumental record, with less bias, than the modern set does. When both modern and pre-industrial calibration sets are used to reconstruct past temperatures since AD 1116 from pollen counts from a varve-dated record from Lake Mina, Minnesota, the conventional inference method produces significant low-frequency (centennial-scale) signal attenuation and positive bias of 0.8-1.7°C, resulting in an overestimation of Little Ice Age temperature and likely an underestimation of the extent and rate of anthropogenic warming in this region. However, high-frequency (annual-scale) signal attenuation exists with both methods. Hence, we conclude that any past pollen spectra from before Euro-American settlement in this region should be interpreted using a pre-Euro-American settlement pollen set, paired to the earliest instrumental climate records. It remains to be explored how widespread this problem is when conventional pollen-based inference methods are used, and consequently how seriously regional manifestations of global warming have been underestimated with traditional pollen-based techniques.     

Modern vegetation–pollen–climate relationships for the Pampa grasslands of Argentina

Aim To analyse the relationships between potential natural vegetation, pollen and climate in order to improve the interpretation of fossil pollen records and provide the background for future quantitative palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Location Pampa grasslands of Argentina, between 33–41° S and 56–67° W. Methods Modern pollen data were obtained from a pollen data base developed by the Grupo de Investigación de Paleoecología y Palinología, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, Argentina (143 surface samples and 17 pollen types). Analysis of pollen and climate data involved multivariate statistics (cluster analysis and principal components analysis), scatter diagrams, Pearson’s correlation and isopoll mapping. Results Vegetation patterns at regional scales (grasslands and xerophytic woodlands) and local scales (edaphic communities) were identified by cluster analysis of pollen surface samples. The main climatic variables that appear to constrain the vegetation distribution and abundance of taxa are mean annual precipitation, annual effective precipitation and summer temperature. Individual pollen types such as Chenopodiaceae, Apiaceae, Cyperaceae, Prosopis, Schinus, Condalia microphylla and other xerophytic taxa are good indicators of moisture regime. Many pollen types are significantly correlated with summer temperature. The modern vegetation–pollen–climate relationships vary in a broadly predictable manner, supporting the contention that fossil pollen assemblages can be related to particular climatic characteristics. Main conclusions An expanded suite of modern analogues facilitated new insights into vegetation–pollen–climate relationships at the regional scale in Pampa grasslands. Relationships between individual pollen types and climate are appraised at a regional scale and new modern analogues are presented. The results provide the basis for improved vegetation and climate reconstruction from fossil records of the study area.     

Modern pollen assemblages as climate indicators in southern Europe

Aim and Location Our aim is to develop pollen–climate inference models for southern Europe and to test their performance and inference power by cross‐validation with modern climate data. Surface sediments collected from lakes along a climate gradient from the winter‐cold/summer‐wet Alps to winter‐wet/summer‐dry Sicily were analysed for modern pollen assemblages. Methods For each lake, mean monthly temperatures, seasonal precipitation and site‐specific climate uncertainties have been estimated. Pollen–climate relationships were studied using numerical analyses, and inference models were derived by partial least squares (PLS) and weighted‐averaging PLS (WA‐PLS) regressions for January and July temperatures (T), and for winter, spring and summer precipitation (P). In order to assess whether these variables are also of ecological importance for vegetation in the subregions, we split the data set into an Alpine and a Mediterranean subset. Results Low bootstrap cross‐validated root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) for January T (1.7 °C), July T (2.1 °C) and summer P (38 mm), as well as low RMSEPs expressed as a percentage of the gradient length (8–9%), indicate a good inference power. Models revealed excellent to good performance statistics for January T, July T and summer P (r²= 0.8), and for winter and spring P (r²=c. 0.5). We show that the variables with the highest explanatory power differ between the two subregions. These are summer T and P for the Alpine set, and January T, winter P and July T for the Mediterranean set. Main conclusions The study reveals the influence of climatic conditions during the growing season on modern pollen assemblages and indicates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions of parameters such as winter precipitation and temperature, which seem to be the main factors having an influence on the variability of Mediterranean climate. These models may therefore provide important information on past regional climate variability in southern Europe.     

No‐analog climates and shifting realized niches during the late quaternary: implications for 21st‐century predictions by species distribution models

Empirically derived species distributions models (SDMs) are increasingly relied upon to forecast species vulnerabilities to future climate change. However, many of the assumptions of SDMs may be violated when they are used to project species distributions across significant climate change events. In particular, SDM's in theory assume stable fundamental niches, but in practice, they assume stable realized niches. The assumption of a fixed realized niche relative to climate variables remains unlikely for various reasons, particularly if novel future climates open up currently unavailable portions of species’ fundamental niches. To demonstrate this effect, we compare the climate distributions for fossil‐pollen data from 21 to 15 ka bp (relying on paleoclimate simulations) when communities and climates with no modern analog were common across North America to observed modern pollen assemblages. We test how well SDMs are able to project 20th century pollen‐based taxon distributions with models calibrated using data from 21 to 15 ka. We find that taxa which were abundant in areas with no‐analog late glacial climates, such as Fraxinus, Ostrya/Carpinus and Ulmus, substantially shifted their realized niches from the late glacial period to present. SDMs for these taxa had low predictive accuracy when projected to modern climates despite demonstrating high predictive accuracy for late glacial pollen distributions. For other taxa, e.g. Quercus, Picea, Pinus strobus, had relatively stable realized niches and models for these taxa tended to have higher predictive accuracy when projected to present. Our findings reinforce the point that a realized niche at any one time often represents only a subset of the climate conditions in which a taxon can persist. Projections from SDMs into future climate conditions that are based solely on contemporary realized distributions are potentially misleading for assessing the vulnerability of species to future climate change.     

Anthropogenic and climatic impacts on surface pollen assemblages along a precipitation gradient in north‐eastern China

Aim To understand the scenarios of ‘anthropogenic biomes’ that integrate human and ecological systems, we need to explore the impacts of climate and human disturbance on vegetation in the past and present. Interactions among surface pollen, modern vegetation and human activities along climate and land‐use gradients are tested to evaluate the natural and anthropogenic forces shaping the modern vegetation, and hence to aid the reconstruction of vegetation and climate in the past. This in turn will help with future predictions. Location The North‐east China Transect (NECT) in north‐eastern China. Methods We analysed 33 surface pollen samples and 213 quadrats across four vegetation zones along the moisture/land‐use gradients of the NECT. Detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) and redundancy analysis (RDA) of 52 pollen taxa and three environmental variables were used to distinguish anthropogenic and climatic factors that affect surface pollen assemblages along the NECT. Results The 33 surface samples are divided into four pollen zones (forest, meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe) corresponding to major vegetation types in the NECT. Variations in pollen ratios of fern/herb (F/H), Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae (A/C) and arboreal pollen/non‐arboreal pollen (AP/NAP) represent the vegetation and precipitation gradient along the NECT. DCA and RDA analyses suggest that surface pollen assemblages are significantly influenced by the precipitation gradient. Changes in the abundance of Chenopodiaceae pollen are related to both human activities and precipitation. Main conclusions Surface pollen assemblages, fossil pollen records, archaeological evidence and historical documents in northern China show that a large increase of Chenopodiaceae pollen indicates human‐caused vegetation degradation in sandy habitats. The A/C ratio is a good indicator of climatic aridity, but should be used in conjunction with multiple proxies of human activities and climate change in the pollen‐based reconstruction of anthropogenic biomes.     

A survey of modern pollen and vegetation along a south–north transect in Mongolia

Aim This modern pollen‐rain study documents the spatial and quantitative relationships between modern pollen and vegetation in Mongolia, and explores the potential for using this relationship in palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Location East‐central Mongolia. Methods We collected 104 pollen surface samples along a south–north transect across five vegetation zones in Mongolia. Discriminant analysis was used to classify the modern pollen spectra into five pollen assemblages corresponding to the five vegetation zones. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to divide the main pollen taxa into two major groups and seven subgroups representing the dry and moist vegetation types and the main vegetation communities within them. Results Each vegetation zone along the transect can be characterized by a distinctive modern pollen assemblage as follows: (1) desert zone: Chenopodiaceae–Zygophyllaceae–Nitraria–Poaceae pollen assemblage; (2) desert‐steppe zone: Poaceae–Chenopodiaceae pollen assemblage; (3) steppe zone: Artemisia–Aster‐type–Poaceae–Pinus Haploxylon‐type pollen assemblage; (4) forest‐steppe zone: Pinus Haploxylon‐type–Picea–Artemisia–Betula, montane forb/shrub and pteridophyte pollen assemblage; and (5) mountain taiga zone: Pinus Haploxylon‐type–Picea–Poaceae–Cyperaceae, montane forb/shrub and Pteridophyte pollen assemblage. Main conclusions Based on the ratio between the major pollen taxon groups and subgroups, we propose two pollen–climate indices that represent the precipitation and temperature conditions in the study region. When plotted along our south–north transect, the moisture indices (M) and temperature indices (T) mimic the regional gradients of precipitation and temperature across Mongolia very closely. These pollen–climate indices can be used for palaeoclimatic reconstruction based on fossil pollen data.     

A modern pollen–climate calibration set from northern Europe: developing and testing a tool for palaeoclimatological reconstructions

Aims and location The potential of pollen records in quantitative climate reconstructions has been widely debated but seldom tested. Our aim is to develop a pollen–climate transfer function for northern Europe and test its performance and inference power by numerical cross‐validation with modern climate data. Annual mean temperature (T_ann) was assessed as the critical climatic variable because T_ann has a distinct south–north gradient (5.5 to ?4.7 °C) in the study region with a corresponding zonal vegetation gradient from the hemiboreal zone in the south to the northern boreal zone in the north. Methods We collected 137 pollen surface samples from small‐ to medium size lakes from southern Estonia to northern Finland. The transfer function for T_ann was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares (WA‐PLS) regression. All 102 terrestrial pollen and spore types were included in the calculation sum and all 137 surface samples and all 102 taxa were included in the transfer function. The performance of the WA‐PLS transfer function was evaluated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation. Results A cross‐validated root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of our model is 0.89 °C and the coefficient of determination (r²) between the observed meteorological T_ann values and those predicted by the model in leave‐one‐out cross‐validation is 0.88. The RMSEP as a percentage of the gradient length of T_ann is 8.8%. These figures indicate high performance statistics for our transfer function compared with other inference models. This is probably because of standardization of our surface‐sampling and pollen‐analytical procedures, careful selection of the surface sample sites with consideration of the relevant pollen source area, the simple patterns of vegetation zones and climate in the study area, and the mostly natural floristic composition of the forests in northern Europe. However, we also demonstrate the limitations of our model in reliably detecting fine‐scale climatic variability. Main conclusions The study shows the strong influence of T_ann on modern pollen composition and demonstrates the potential of pollen data for long‐term climate reconstructions in northern Europe. It also provides evidence against simple interpretations of fine‐scale variations in a single climate reconstruction. In particular, our results highlight the importance of careful study design and implementation in the construction of pollen–climate transfer functions.     

Tree line identification from pollen data: beyond the limit?

Aim The boreal tree line is a prominent biogeographic feature, the position of which reflects climatic conditions. Pollen is the key sensor used to reconstruct past tree line patterns. Our aims in this study were to investigate pollen–vegetation relationships at the boreal tree line and to assess the success of a modified version of the biomization method that incorporates pollen productivity and dispersal in distinguishing the tree line. Location Northern Canada (307 sites) and Alaska (316 sites). Methods The REVEALS method for estimating regional vegetation composition from pollen data was simplified to provide correction factors to account for differential production and dispersal of pollen among taxa. The REVEALS‐based correction factors were used to adapt the biomization method and applied as a set of experiments to pollen data from lake sediments and moss polsters from the boreal tree line. Proportions of forest and tundra predicted from modern pollen samples along two longitudinal transects were compared with those derived from a vegetation map by: (1) a tally of ‘correct’ versus ‘incorrect’ assignments using vegetation in the relevant map pixels, and (2) a comparison of the shape and position of north–south forest‐cover curves generated from all transect pixels and from pollen data. Possible causes of bias in the misclassifications were assessed. Results Correcting for pollen productivity alone gave fewest misclassifications and the closest estimate of the modern mapped tree line position (Canada, + 300 km; Alaska, + 10 km). In Canada success rates were c. 40–70% and all experiments over‐predicted forest cover. Most corrections improved results over uncorrected biomization; using only lakes improved success rates to c. 80%. In Alaska success rates were 70–80% and classification errors were more evenly distributed; there was little improvement over uncorrected biomization. Main conclusions Corrected biomization should improve broad‐scale reconstructions of spatial patterns in forest/non‐forest vegetation mosaics and across climate‐sensitive ecotones. The Canadian example shows this is particularly the case in regions affected by taxa with extremely high pollen productivity (such as Pinus). Improved representation of actual vegetation distribution is most likely if pollen data from lake sediments are used because the REVEALS algorithm is based on the pollen dynamics of lake‐based systems.     

Tropical montane forest ecotones: climate gradients, natural disturbance, and vegetation zonation in the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic

Aim We examined relationships between climate–disturbance gradients and patterns of vegetation zonation and ecotones on a subtropical mountain range. Location The study was conducted on the windward slopes of the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic, where cloud forest appears to shift in a narrow ecotone to monodominant forest of Pinus occidentalis. Methods Climate, disturbance and vegetation data were collected over the elevation range 1100–3100 m and in 50 paired plots along the ecotone. Aerial photographs were georeferenced to a high‐resolution digital elevation model in order to enable the analysis of landscape‐scale patterns of the ecotone. Results A Shipley–Keddy test detected discrete compositional ecotones at 2200 and 2500 m; the distributions of tree species at lower elevations were continuous. The elevation of the ecotone determined with aerial photographs was fairly consistent, namely ± 164 m (SD) over its 124‐km length, but it exhibited significant landscape variation, occurring at a lower elevation in a partially leeward, western zone. The ecotone also occurred significantly lower on ridges than it did in drainage gullies. Ecotone forest structure and composition differed markedly between paired plots. In pine paired plots, the canopy height was 1.7 times higher and the basal area of non‐pine species was 6 times lower than in the cloud forest directly below. Fire evidence was ubiquitous in the pine forest but rare in the abutting cloud forest. Mesoclimate changed discontinuously around the elevation of the ecotone: humidity and cloud formation decreased markedly, and frost frequency increased exponentially. Main conclusions The discreteness of the ecotone was produced primarily by fire. The elevational consistency of the ecotone, however, resulted from the overarching influence of mesoclimate on the elevational patterns of fire occurrence. Declining temperature and precipitation combine with the trade‐wind inversion to create a narrow zone where high‐elevation fires extinguish, enabling fire‐sensitive and fire‐tolerant taxa to abut. Once established, mesotopography and contrasting vegetation physiognomy probably reinforce this boundary through feedbacks on microenvironment and fire likelihood. The prominence of the pine in this study – and of temperate and fire‐tolerant taxa in subtropical montane forests in general – highlights the importance of climate‐disturbance–biogeography interactions in ecotone formation, particularly where fire mediates a dynamic between climate and vegetation.     

A new methodology for reconstructing climate and vegetation from modern pollen assemblages: an example from British Columbia

Aim We used modern pollen assemblages to develop a method for climate reconstruction that reduces the spatial autocorrelation of residuals and accounts for the strong topographic and climatic variation that occurs in British Columbia, Canada. Location British Columbia, Canada, including sites both on the mainland and on adjacent islands (Queen Charlotte Islands and Vancouver Island). Methods New pollen assemblages from surface‐sediment samples collected in British Columbia were combined with other published and unpublished samples (n = 284). Multivariate rank‐distances between sample sites and a randomized set of sites within the province were calculated for climate parameters to determine whether gaps in the current network of present‐day pollen sample sites exist. Lacustrine surface‐sediment pollen assemblages (n = 145) were ordinated using non‐metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS), and a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to reconstruct modern mean warmest month temperature (MWMT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) from the NMDS ordination. The results were compared with standard climate reconstruction techniques, including the modern analogue technique, partial least squares, weighted averaging, weighted averaging–partial least squares and factor analysis. Results Reconstructions of MWMT and MAP using NMDS and GAM were comparable to those of existing models. When reconstructing MWMT, the NMDS/GAM method had a lower root‐mean‐squared error of prediction (RMSEP), lower spatial autocorrelation and higher correlation with observed temperature values than the other methods tested. When reconstructing MAP, the partial least squares method performed better than the NMDS/GAM method for RMSEP and correlation with observed values; however, the NMDS/GAM method had a lower spatial autocorrelation of residuals. Main conclusions NMDS reveals strong relationships among modern pollen assemblages, vegetation and climate parameters. Climate models using NMDS and GAM are comparable to other palaeoecological reconstruction models, but provide lower spatial autocorrelation of residuals for both parameters tested. An inverse distance‐weighted surface of multivariate rank‐climate distances generated from the network of pollen sample sites indicates that greater sampling intensity in north‐western and central‐interior British Columbia is required in order to obtain an accurate representation of climatic and vegetation diversity in the province.     

Interpretation of the last‐glacial vegetation of eastern‐central Europe using modern analogues from southern Siberia

Aim Interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages may benefit greatly from comparisons with modern palynological and vegetation analogues. To interpret the full‐ and late‐glacial vegetation in eastern‐central Europe we compared fossil pollen assemblages from this region with modern pollen assemblages from various vegetation types in southern Siberia, which presumably include the closest modern analogues of the last‐glacial vegetation of central Europe. Location Czech and Slovak Republics (fossil pollen assemblages); Western Sayan Mountains, southern Siberia (modern pollen assemblages). Methods Eighty‐eight modern pollen spectra were sampled in 14 vegetation types of Siberian forest, tundra and steppe, and compared with the last‐glacial pollen spectra from seven central European localities using principal components analysis. Results Both full‐ and late‐glacial pollen spectra from the valleys of the Western Carpathians (altitudes 350–610 m) are similar to modern pollen spectra from southern Siberian taiga, hemiboreal forest and dwarf‐birch tundra. The full‐glacial and early late‐glacial pollen spectra from lowland river valleys in the Bohemian Massif (altitudes 185–190 m) also indicate the presence of patches of hemiboreal forest or taiga. Other late‐glacial pollen spectra from the Bohemian Massif suggest an open landscape with steppe or tundra or a mosaic of both, possibly with small patches of hemiboreal forest. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that during the full glacial and late glacial, the mountain valleys of the north‐western Carpathians supported taiga or hemiboreal forest dominated by Larix, Pinus cembra, Pinus sylvestris and Picea, along with some steppic or tundra formations. Forests tended to be increasingly open or patchy towards the west (Moravian lowlands), gradually passing into the generally treeless landscape of Bohemia, with possible woodland patches in locally favourable sites.     

Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s

Circumpolar expansion of tall shrubs and trees into Arctic tundra is widely thought to be occurring as a result of recent climate warming, but little quantitative evidence exists for northern Siberia, which encompasses the world's largest forest‐tundra ecotonal belt. We quantified changes in tall shrub and tree canopy cover in 11, widely distributed Siberian ecotonal landscapes by comparing very high‐resolution photography from the Cold War‐era ‘Gambit’ and ‘Corona’ satellite surveillance systems (1965–1969) with modern imagery. We also analyzed within‐landscape patterns of vegetation change to evaluate the susceptibility of different landscape components to tall shrub and tree increase. The total cover of tall shrubs and trees increased in nine of 11 ecotones. In northwest Siberia, alder (Alnus) shrubland cover increased 5.3–25.9% in five ecotones. In Taymyr and Yakutia, larch (Larix) cover increased 3.0–6.7% within three ecotones, but declined 16.8% at a fourth ecotone due to thaw of ice‐rich permafrost. In Chukotka, the total cover of alder and dwarf pine (Pinus) increased 6.1% within one ecotone and was little changed at a second ecotone. Within most landscapes, shrub and tree increase was linked to specific geomorphic settings, especially those with active disturbance regimes such as permafrost patterned‐ground, floodplains, and colluvial hillslopes. Mean summer temperatures increased at most ecotones since the mid‐1960s, but rates of shrub and tree canopy cover expansion were not strongly correlated with temperature trends and were better correlated with mean annual precipitation. We conclude that shrub and tree cover is increasing in tundra ecotones across most of northern Siberia, but rates of increase vary widely regionally and at the landscape scale. Our results indicate that extensive changes can occur within decades in moist, shrub‐dominated ecotones, as in northwest Siberia, while changes are likely to occur much more slowly in the highly continental, larch‐dominated ecotones of central and eastern Siberia.     

Modern pollen–vegetation relationships in subarctic southern Greenland and the interpretation of fossil pollen data from the Norse landnám

Aim The objective of this paper is to explore the relationships that exist between vegetation and modern pollen rain in the open, largely treeless landscape of subarctic Greenland. The implications of these results for the interpretation of fossil pollen assemblages from the time of the Norse landnám are then examined. Location The study area is the sheep farming district of Qassiarsuk in the subarctic, subcontinental vegetational and climatic zone of southern Greenland (61° N, 45° W). Between c.ad 1000–1500 this region was contained within the Norse Eastern Settlement. Methods Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) of harmonized plant–pollen data sets is used to compare plant cover in 64 vegetation quadrats with pollen assemblages obtained from moss polsters at matching locations. Presence/absence data are also used to calculate indices of association, over‐ and under‐representation for pollen types. Results Good correspondence between paired vegetation–pollen samples occurs in many cases, particularly in locations where Salix glauca–Betula glandulosa dwarf shrub heath is dominant, and across herbaceous field boundaries and meadows. Pollen samples are found to be poor at reflecting actual ground cover where ericales or Juniperus communis are the locally dominant shrubs. Dominant or ubiquitous taxa within this landscape (Betula, Salix and Poaceae) are found to be over‐represented in pollen assemblages, as are several of the ‘weeds’ generally accepted as introduced by the Norse settlers. Main conclusions Due to their over‐representation in the pollen rain, many of the Norse apophytes and introductions (e.g. Rumex acetosa and R. acetosella) traditionally used to infer human activity in Greenland should be particularly sensitive indicators for landnám, allowing early detection of Norse activity in fossil assemblages. Pteridophyte spores are found to be disassociated with the ground cover of ferns and clubmosses, but are over‐represented in pollen assemblages, indicating extra‐local or regional sources and long residence times in soil/sediment profiles for these microfossils. A pollen record for Hordeum‐type registered in close proximity to a field containing barley suggests that summer temperatures under the current climatic regime are, at least on occasion, sufficient to allow flowering.     

Pollen and Macro‐Fossil Assemblages in Disturbed Urban Wetlands on South Vancouver Island Reveal Recent Invasion of Reed Canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) and Guide Restoration

Paleoecological analyses and historical information were used to characterize pre‐disturbance conditions in Swan Lake wetland of suburban Victoria, Vancouver Island, British Columbia, to provide a reference for restoration and management. Highly invasive reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) dominates Swan Lake wetlands and inhibits restoration. Grass pollen presumably produced by Phalaris predominates only in the top 5 cm (south site) to 35 cm (north site) of sediment cores. Below these levels assemblages are variously dominated by taxa including Salix, Alnus, Lysichiton, Cyperaceae, and Rosaceae. Pollen grains of agricultural disturbance indicators, such as plantain, liguliflorate Asteraceae, and cereals occur to depths of 35 cm. The results strongly suggest that Phalaris communities arose in historical times following agricultural disturbance and have no pre‐European equivalent. Pollen assemblages below the Phalaris zone, corroborated by historical documentary references, show diverse original wetland types. Disturbance and crop species pollen indicators may be useful indicators of intensity and depth of disturbance. Pre‐agricultural plant communities are a guide for restoration, provided that ecologically limiting factors are managed.     

Variation in modern pollen from tropical evergreen forests and the monsoon seasonality gradient in SW India

Abstract. This study analyses the pollen signature of tropical lowland forests (< 1000 m a.s.l.) in the Asian monsoon climate. Its aim is to investigate how well the pollen data can reproduce the vegetation patterns in tropical India, and how the variations in the pollen composition are related to the gradient of decreasing plant moisture availability (measured by the ratio of actual over equilibrium evapotranspiration) that is associated with the strong seasonality of precipitation that characterizes the monsoon climate regime. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to relate the variations in the pollen composition of 71 surface soil samples from evergreen and semi‐evergreen forests distributed along the western coast of south India (8° 48’ N‐15° 08’ N), with the climate characteristics of the sampling sites. We show that variations in plant moisture availability strongly determine variations in the pollen composition; for example evergreen and semi‐evergreen forests can be distinguished on the basis of their pollen assemblages. Variations in the mean temperature of the coldest month associated with elevation also determine distinct pollen assemblages; for example evergreen forests above 800 m a.s.l. present different pollen signatures than those below this altitude/temperature limit. Variations in the relative abundance of some pollen taxa are strongly related to plant moisture availability and taxa indicators of climate can be identified. Hence, modern pollen assemblages from tropical forests in south India carry considerable information about vegetation patterns and climate. Paleoclimatic changes, notably in the monsoon season, could be quantified.     

Representation of tundra vegetation by pollen in lake sediments of northern Alaska

Aim To understand better the representation of arctic tundra vegetation by pollen data, we analysed pollen assemblages and pollen accumulation rates (PARs) in the surface sediments of lakes. Location Modern sediment samples were collected from seventy‐eight lakes located in the Arctic Foothills and Arctic Coastal Plain regions of northern Alaska. Methods For seventy of the lakes, we analysed pollen and spores in the upper 2 cm of the sediment and calculated the relative abundance of each taxon (pollen percentages). For eleven of the lakes, we used ²¹⁰Pb analysis to determine sediment accumulation rates, and analysed pollen in the upper 10–15 cm of the sediment to estimate modern PARs. Using a detailed land‐cover map of northern Alaska, we assigned each study site to one of five tundra types: moist dwarf‐shrub tussock‐graminoid tundra (DST), moist graminoid prostrate‐shrub tundra (PST) (coastal and inland types), low‐shrub tundra (LST) and wet graminoid tundra (WGT). Results Mapped pollen percentages and multivariate comparison of the pollen data using discriminant analysis show that pollen assemblages vary along the main north–south vegetational and climatic gradients. On the Arctic Coastal Plain where climate is cold and dry, graminoid‐dominated PST and WGT sites were characterized by high percentages of Cyperaceae and Poaceae pollen. In the Arctic Foothills where climate is warmer and wetter, shrub‐dominated DST, PST and LST were characterized by high percentages of Alnus and Betula pollen. Small‐scale variations in tundra vegetation related to edaphic variability are also represented by the pollen data. Discriminant analysis demonstrated that DST sites could be distinguished from foothills PST sites based on their higher percentages of Ericales and Rubus chamaemorus pollen, and coastal PST sites could be distinguished from WGT sites based on their higher percentages of Artemisia. PARs appear to reflect variations in overall vegetation cover, although the small number of samples limits our understanding of these patterns. For coastal sites, PARs were higher for PST than WGT, whereas in the Arctic Foothills, PARs were highest in LST, intermediate in DST, and lowest in PST. Main conclusion Modern pollen data from northern Alaska reflect patterns of tundra vegetation related to both regional‐scale climatic gradients and landscape‐scale edaphic heterogeneity.     

Stream macroinvertebrate assemblage uniformity and drivers in a tropical bioregion

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The influence of abrupt climate change on the ice‐age vegetation of the Central American lowlands

Aim To investigate the effects of abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic on the vegetation history of lowland Central America. We use palynological evidence from a Central American lake on the Yucatan Peninsula to evaluate the effects of rapid climate changes during the last ice age, between 65 and 8 ka. Location Lake Petén‐Itzá, lowlands of northern Guatemala. Methods Sediment core PI‐6 was sampled at c. 170‐year resolution for pollen and charcoal analysis in order to construct a temporal sequence of environmental change. Uni‐ and multivariate statistical analyses were performed on the pollen dataset to test whether there was an association between Heinrich events in the North Atlantic and vegetation changes in the Central American lowlands. Results Pollen analysis revealed that the composition of plant assemblages on the Yucatan Peninsula varied in phase with rapid changes in North Atlantic climate. Pine savannas were the main vegetation type between c. 60 and 47 ka. These savannas gave way to pine–oak (Pinus–Quercus) forests in the latter half of the last ice age. Marked episodes of replacement of the pine–oak assemblage by xeric‐tolerant taxa occurred during Heinrich events. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was characterized by mesic conditions. Main conclusions The pollen record from Lake Petén‐Itzá showed that vegetation changes associated with Heinrich events were more significant than those associated with the LGM. Each Heinrich event produced a characteristic shift towards xeric taxa. Although colder than Heinrich events, the LGM on the Yucatan Peninsula was relatively moist, and the presumed savannization of the landscape during the maximum cooling of the last glacial was not supported by our data. Our findings suggest alternative scenarios for plant diversification and genetic interchange during glacial times, and also indicate that vegetation in tropical continental settings was not as stable as previously thought.     

Late Holocene palaeoenvironment change in central Tianshan of Xinjiang,northwest China

The northern slopes of central Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang, northwestern China can provide an ideal database to research palaeoclimate as disturbance by human impact is relatively low and the vegetation zones reflect climatic gradients. In order to establish the correlation between modern climatic factors and surface pollen assemblages and to reconstruct palaeoclimate on the northern slope of central Tianshan Mountains, three Holocene sections in Daxigou, Huashuwozi and Sichanghu located at different elevations and vegetation zones were chosen for study. A total of 80 surface pollen samples in 86 vegetation quadrats were collected for pollen‐vegetation relationship analysis. The Warmth Index (WI) and Moisture Index (MI) were calculated based on averaged modern climate data during 1951 – 2000 at eight weather stations in the study area. Pollen percentages of Picea, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Ephedra, and Tamarix, as well as A/C (Artemisia/Chenopodiaceae) and AP/NAP (arboreal/nonarboreal pollen) ratio were selected as pollen variables and WI and MI were chosen as climatic variables. The relationship between pollen percentages (Picea, Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae and Tamarix), A/C, AP/NAP ratio, WI and MI values were estimated (95% confidence interval) using stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. WI and MI values for the three sections were calculated using these regression equations, and palaeoclimate for the study area could be reconstructed. The results showed periods of both cool‐humid and warm‐dry conditions on the northern slopes of Tianshan Mountain during the late Holocene.     

Environmental controls on the distribution and diversity of lentic Chironomidae (Insecta: Diptera) across an altitudinal gradient in tropical South America

To predict the response of aquatic ecosystems to future global climate change, data on the ecology and distribution of keystone groups in freshwater ecosystems are needed. In contrast to mid‐ and high‐latitude zones, such data are scarce across tropical South America (Neotropics). We present the distribution and diversity of chironomid species using surface sediments of 59 lakes from the Andes to the Amazon (0.1–17°S and 64–78°W) within the Neotropics. We assess the spatial variation in community assemblages and identify the key variables influencing the distributional patterns. The relationships between environmental variables (pH, conductivity, depth, and sediment organic content), climatic data, and chironomid assemblages were assessed using multivariate statistics (detrended correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis). Climatic parameters (temperature and precipitation) were most significant in describing the variance in chironomid assemblages. Temperature and precipitation are both predicted to change under future climate change scenarios in the tropical Andes. Our findings suggest taxa of Orthocladiinae, which show a preference to cold high‐elevation oligotrophic lakes, will likely see range contraction under future anthropogenic‐induced climate change. Taxa abundant in areas of high precipitation, such as Micropsectra and Phaenopsectra, will likely become restricted to the inner tropical Andes, as the outer tropical Andes become drier. The sensitivity of chironomids to climate parameters makes them important bio‐indicators of regional climate change in the Neotropics. Furthermore, the distribution of chironomid taxa presented here is a vital first step toward providing urgently needed autecological data for interpreting fossil chironomid records of past ecological and climate change from the tropical Andes.