Waders in winter: long-term changes of migratory bird assemblages facing climate change

Effects of climate change on species occupying distinct areas during their life cycle are still unclear. Moreover, although effects of climate change have widely been studied at the species level, less is known about community responses. Here, we test whether and how the composition of wader (Charadrii) assemblages, breeding in high latitude and wintering from Europe to Africa, is affected by climate change over 33 years. We calculated the temporal trend in the community temperature index (CTI), which measures the balance between cold and hot dwellers present in species assemblages. We found a steep increase in the CTI, which reflects a profound change in assemblage composition in response to recent climate change. This study provides, to our knowledge, the first evidence of a strong community response of migratory species to climate change in their wintering areas.     

Adjustment of the annual cycle to climatic change in a long-lived migratory bird species

Climate change has advanced the phenology of many organisms. Migratory animals face particular problems because climate change in the breeding and the wintering range may be asynchronous, preventing rapid response to changing conditions. Advancement in timing of spring migration may have carry-over effects to other parts of the annual cycle, simply because advancement of one event in the annual cycle also advances subsequent events, gradually causing a general shift in the timing of the entire annual cycle. Such a phenotypic shift could generate accumulating effects over the years for individuals, but also across generations. Here we test this novel hypothesis of phenotypic response to climate change by using long-term data on the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea. Mean breeding date advanced by almost three weeks during the last 70 years. Annual arrival date at the breeding grounds during a period of 47 years was predicted by environmental conditions in the winter quarters in the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic and by mean breeding date the previous year. Annual mean breeding date was only marginally determined by timing of arrival the current year, but to a larger extent by arrival date and breeding date the previous year. Learning affected arrival date as shown by a positive correlation between arrival date in year (i+1) relative to breeding date in year (i) and the selective advantage of early breeding in year (i). This provides a mechanism for changes in arrival date being adjusted to changing environmental conditions. This study suggests that adaptation to changing climatic conditions can be achieved through learning from year to year[Current Zoology 55(2):92-101,2009].     

An inventory of the possible effects of climatic change on western palearctic migratory birds

This paper presents an assessment of the possible effects of future climatic change on migratory birds. The assessment is based on two approaches: firstly an inventory is made of the environmental factors that may change which directly affect migratory birds. These factors include physical (temperature, hydrology, ocean and air streaming patterns) as well as biological (floral and faunal composition of ecosystems) and landuse aspects of the environment.Secondly, these possible changes were related to the annual cycles of migratory birds in order to estimate the problems that different groups of migratory birds have to cope with at various stages in their annual cycle. It is concluded that many migratory bird species will be influenced by climatic change, leading to adaptations in the birds annual cycle. The biggest problems may arise for those birds which depend on wetlands, because many of these wetlands may dessicate.     

荒漠草原土壤动物与降雨关系研究现状

在全球性气候变化背景下,极端降雨事件频发,总结土壤动物多样性与降雨变化间的关系及其响应机制,有助于理解全球变化对土壤生态系统结构与功能的作用过程,对于探讨陆地生态系统应对全球变化具有重要科学意义。荒漠草原生态系统极度脆弱,对气候变化敏感,但是关于荒漠草原土壤动物与降雨变化间关系的研究报道比较少,严重制约了对荒漠草原生态系统的有效管理和可持续利用。本文从地上、地面和地下3个方面总结了土壤动物和降雨变化间的关系,并就荒漠草原土壤动物应对气候变化研究提出了一些建议。研究表明,降雨变化直接影响土壤动物群落结构;土壤动物对降雨变化反应强烈,不同动物类群产生了积极的响应规律;某些土壤动物类群对于降雨变化还具有重要指示作用。在荒漠草原生态系统中,今后需要从降雨变化对土壤动物产生的长期影响、土壤动物对降雨变化的适应方式和某些动物类群对土壤水分敏感性以及土壤动物与气候变化间的互为反馈关系等方面加强研究。     

Uncertainties in the response of a forest landscape to global climatic change

Many studies have been conducted to quantify the possible ecosystem/landscape response to the anticipated global warming. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the future climate predictions used for these studies. Specifically, the climate predictions can be very different based on a variety of global climate models and alternative greenhouse emission scenarios. In this study, we coupled a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and a forest process model, PnET-II, to examine the uncertainty (that results from the uncertainty in the future climate predictions) in the forest-type composition prediction for a transitional forest landscape [the Boundary Water Canoe Area]. Using an improved global-sensitivity analysis technique [Fourier amplitude sensitivity test], we also quantified the amount of uncertainty in the forest-type composition prediction contributed by different climate variables including temperature, CO₂, precipitation and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). The forest landscape response was simulated for the period 2000–2400 ad based on the differential responses of 13 tree species under an ensemble of 27 possible climate prediction profiles (monthly time series of climate variables). Our simulations indicate that the uncertainty in the forest-type composition becomes very high after 2200 ad , which is close to the time when the current forests are largely removed by windthrow disturbances and natural mortality. The most important source of uncertainty in the forest-type composition prediction is from the uncertainty in temperature predictions. The second most important source is PAR, the third is CO₂ and the least important is precipitation. Our results also show that if the optimum photosynthetic temperature rises due to CO₂ enrichment, the forest landscape response to climatic change measured by forest-type composition may be substantially reduced.     

Responses of tree populations to climatic change

The influence of climate on the population dynamics of trees must be inferred from indirect sources of information because the long lifespans of trees preclude direct observation of population growth and decline. Important insights about these processes come from 1) observations of the life histories and ecologies of trees in contemporary forests, 2) evidence of recent treeline movements in remote areas unaffected by human disturbance, and 3) results of experiments performed on forest simulation models. Each line of evidence indicates that tree population responses are influenced by many factors: including lifespans, seed productivity and dispersibility, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, competition, and disturbance. Some population characteristics should allow rapid changes in population sizes, while others should confer stability in times of environmental fluctuation. Interactions between controlling factors should result in a wide array of possible responses to climatic change. Interpretations of late-Quaternary forest dynamics must be based on an understanding of the biological processes involved in population responses to environmental variations.     

Water-mediated responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes to climatic change in a temperate steppe

Global warming and a changing precipitation regime could have a profound impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes, especially in arid and semiarid grasslands where water is limited. A field experiment manipulating temperature and precipitation has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China since 2005. A paired, nested experimental design was used, with increased precipitation as the primary factor and warming simulated by infrared radiators as the secondary factor. The results for the first 2 yr showed that gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was higher than ecosystem respiration, leading to net C sink (measured by net ecosystem CO(2) exchange, NEE) over the growing season in the study site. The interannual variation of NEE resulted from the difference in mean annual precipitation. Experimental warming reduced GEP and NEE, whereas increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C and water fluxes in both years. Increased precipitation also alleviated the negative effect of experimental warming on NEE. The results demonstrate that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating ecosystem C and water fluxes and their responses to climatic change in the temperate steppe of northern China.     

Rapid evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character linked to climatic change

The ability of organisms to respond evolutionarily to rapid climatic change is poorly known. Secondary sexual characters show the potential for rapid evolutionary change, as evidenced by strong divergence among species and high evolvability. Here we show that the length of the outermost tail feathers of males of the socially monogamous barn swallow Hirundo rustica, feathers that provide a mating advantage to males, has increased by more than 1 standard deviation during the period from 1984 to 2003. Barn swallows from the Danish population studied here migrate through the Iberian Peninsula to South Africa in fall, and return along the same route in spring. Environmental conditions on the spring staging grounds in Algeria, as indexed by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, predicted tail length and change in tail length across generations. However, conditions in the winter quarters and at the breeding grounds did not predict change in tail length. Environmental conditions in Algeria in spring showed a temporal deterioration during the study period, associated with a reduction in annual survival rate of male barn swallows. Phenotypic plasticity in tail length of males, estimated as the increase in tail length from the age of 1 to 2 years, decreased during the course of the study. Estimates of directional selection differentials for male tail length with respect to mating success, breeding date, fecundity, survival and total selection showed temporal variation, with the intensity of breeding date selection, survival selection and total selection declining during the study. Response to selection as estimated from the product of heritability and total selection was very similar to the observed temporal change in tail length. These findings provide evidence of rapid micro-evolutionary change in a secondary sexual character during a very short time period, which is associated with a rapid change in environmental conditions.     

Idiosyncratic species effects confound size-based predictions of responses to climate change

Understanding and predicting the consequences of warming for complex ecosystems and indeed individual species remains a major ecological challenge. Here, we investigated the effect of increased seawater temperatures on the metabolic and consumption rates of five distinct marine species. The experimental species reflected different trophic positions within a typical benthic East Atlantic food web, and included a herbivorous gastropod, a scavenging decapod, a predatory echinoderm, a decapod and a benthic-feeding fish. We examined the metabolism–body mass and consumption–body mass scaling for each species, and assessed changes in their consumption efficiencies. Our results indicate that body mass and temperature effects on metabolism were inconsistent across species and that some species were unable to meet metabolic demand at higher temperatures, thus highlighting the vulnerability of individual species to warming. While body size explains a large proportion of the variation in species'' physiological responses to warming, it is clear that idiosyncratic species responses, irrespective of body size, complicate predictions of population and ecosystem level response to future scenarios of climate change.     

Decadal change in wetland–woodland boundaries during the late 20th century reflects climatic trends

Wetlands are important and restricted habitats for dependent biota and play vital roles in landscape function, hydrology and carbon sequestration. They are also likely to be one of the most sensitive components of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change. An understanding of relationships between wetland persistence and climate is imperative for predicting, mitigating and adapting to the impacts of future climate change on wetland extent and function. We investigated whether mire wetlands had contracted, expanded or remained stable during 1960–2000. We chose a study area encompassing a regional climatic gradient in southeastern Australia, specifically to avoid confounding effects of water extraction on wetland hydrology and extent. We first characterized trends in climate by examining data from local weather stations, which showed a slight increase in precipitation and marked decline in pan evaporation over the relevant period. Remote sensing of vegetation boundaries showed a marked lateral expansion of mires during 1961–1998, and a corresponding contraction of woodland. The spatial patterns in vegetation change were consistent with the regional climatic gradient and showed a weaker co‐relationship to fire history. Resource exploitation, wildland fires and autogenic mire development failed to explain the observed expansion of mire vegetation in the absence of climate change. We therefore conclude that the extent of mire wetlands is likely to be sensitive to variation in climatic moisture over decadal time scales. Late 20th‐century trends in climatic moisture may be related primarily to reduced irradiance and/or reduced wind speeds. In the 21st century, however, net climatic moisture in this region is projected to decline. As mires are apparently sensitive to hydrological change, we anticipate lateral contraction of mire boundaries in coming decades as projected climatic drying eventuates. This raises concerns about the future hydrological functions, carbon storage capacity and unique biodiversity of these important ecosystems.     

Long-term trends in the abundance of breeding Lapwing Vanellus vanellus in relation to land-use change on upland farmland in southern Scotland

Capsule A long-term decline on this habitat is shown to be associated with the intensification of agricultural management, particularly the occurrence of field drainage.

Aims To assess long-term trends in the number of breeding Lapwing and determine the relationship between these trends and changes in agricultural management on an upland study area.

Methods Breeding Lapwing were counted along two road transects in nine years between 1980 and 2002, and on one extensive plot in 1980, 1990 and 2000. Counts along the road transects were made from a vehicle and the fields used for nesting were recorded. Changes in field management along the transects were monitored annually between 1980 and 1990, and habitat composition assessed in 1980, 1985, 1990 and 2000.

Results During the first 20 years of study the number of breeding Lapwing declined substantially on all three count areas and by 77% overall, with further declines on both transects in 2002. The area of unimproved grassland and arable on these transects also declined substantially due to conversion to improved grass. Fields that comprised either unimproved grassland or arable were most likely to hold nesting Lapwing, while the chance of a field losing its nesting Lapwing was positively associated with the occurrence of drainage. Drainage and conversion to improved grass were closely linked.

Conclusions Agricultural intensification is a probable cause of decline in the number of breeding Lapwing in upland areas. Such declines may have been widespread in upland areas following increased agricultural intensification in recent decades.     

Phenology of two interdependent traits in migratory birds in response to climate change

In migratory birds, arrival date and hatching date are two key phenological markers that have responded to global warming. A body of knowledge exists relating these traits to evolutionary pressures. In this study, we formalize this knowledge into general mathematical assumptions, and use them in an ecoevolutionary model. In contrast to previous models, this study novelty accounts for both traits—arrival date and hatching date—and the interdependence between them, revealing when one, the other or both will respond to climate. For all models sharing the assumptions, the following phenological responses will occur. First, if the nestling-prey peak is late enough, hatching is synchronous with, and arrival date evolves independently of, prey phenology. Second, when resource availability constrains the length of the pre-laying period, hatching is adaptively asynchronous with prey phenology. Predictions for both traits compare well with empirical observations. In response to advancing prey phenology, arrival date may advance, remain unchanged, or even become delayed; the latter occurring when egg-laying resources are only available relatively late in the season. The model shows that asynchronous hatching and unresponsive arrival date are not sufficient evidence that phenological adaptation is constrained. The work provides a framework for exploring microevolution of interdependent phenological traits.     

Potential distribution of semi-deciduous forests in Castile and Leon (Spain) in relation to climatic variations

About 45% of the total surface area of the Castile and Leon region today can potentially be occupied by semi-deciduous forests, chiefly dominated by Quercus faginea Willd. and Quercus pyrenaica Lam. On the basis of extrapolated trends in annual mean temperature and precipitation in Castile and Leon observed over the 37-year period from 1961 to 1997 [del Río et al. 2005], predicted changes in the areas covered by Q. faginea and Q. pyrenaica forests in 2025, 2050 and 2075 were made. A decrease in Q. faginea forests may occur if observed trends in temperature and precipitation continue. With respect to Q. pyrenaica forests, they may increase in present Mediterranean areas and decreases in Temperate Submediterranean areas. In some cases, both types of forests could be replaced by deciduous forests. The predicted results in the natural distribution of vegetation types by the bioclimatic models can be used to establish policies for improved future nature conservation and land management.     

Ecophysiological constraints shape autumn migratory response to climate change in the North American field sparrow

Our ability to accurately forecast species' geographical responses to climate change requires knowledge of the proximate and ultimate drivers of their distribution. Here, we consider the ecophysiological and demographic determinants of the distribution of a partial migrant, the North American field sparrow, Spizella pusilla. From 1940 to 1963, the field sparrow extended its winter northern range margin 222km polewards. Such expansion was coincident with not only a geographical expansion into suitable breeding habitats, but also a decrease in mean abundance across sites occupied during the winter surveys. Combined, these trends suggest that declining populations along the expansion front either stopped migrating or altered their autumn migration. The poleward expansion was not coincident with climatically induced decreases in peak metabolic energy demand, but it did track increases in ecosystem net primary productivity. After 1963, the species' lower lethal temperature prevented further poleward movement. These findings show how different ecophysiological constraints can interact to change migration and distribution in a demographically declining species.     

Shifting of the life cycle and life-history traits of the fall webworm in relation to climate change

The effects of global warming on the life cycle and life‐history traits of the fall webworm, Hyphantria cunea (Drury) (Lepidoptera: Arctiidae), were investigated in Fukui, Japan. Our previous studies showed that the Fukui population had a predominantly bivoltine life cycle, but recently the life cycle has changed. In the present study, the life‐history traits of individuals collected in 2002 in Fukui were clarified and compared to those in the previous studies. The lower threshold temperature for development and the thermal constant for one generation were 10.6 °C and 724.4 degree days, respectively. Although these developmental parameters were not investigated in the previous studies, the difference of the developmental period between the present and previous results was negligible in the larval and pupal stages at 20 °C. The critical photoperiod for diapause induction was 14 h 29 min at 20 °C and 14 h 10 min at 25 °C. The critical photoperiod at 25 °C was shortened to 14 min from that of the previous studies for individuals collected in 1995. The incidence of pupal diapause in the second generation was investigated in individuals that were collected as fourth and fifth instars in the field. Some portion of individuals averted diapause even if they were kept under a short photoperiod of L14:D10 at 25 °C after collection. These results, together with climate data and field observations in Fukui, suggest that at least a part of the population has three generations per year at present. This shift of the life cycle occurred within 7 years and is probably related to global warming in recent years.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Response of subarctic vegetation to transient climatic change on the Seward Peninsula in north-west Alaska

Understanding the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climatic warming is a challenge because of the complex interactions of climate, disturbance, and recruitment across the landscape. We use a spatially explicit model (ALFRESCO) to simulate the transient response of subarctic vegetation to climatic warming on the Seward Peninsula (80 000 km²) in north‐west Alaska. Model calibration efforts showed that fire ignition was less sensitive than fire spread to regional climate (temperature and precipitation). In the model simulations a warming climate led to slightly more fires and much larger fires and expansion of forest into previously treeless tundra. Vegetation and fire regime continued to change for centuries after cessation of the simulated climate warming. Flammability increased rapidly in direct response to climate warming and more gradually in response to climate‐induced vegetation change. In the simulations warming caused as much as a 228% increase in the total area burned per decade, leading to an increasingly early successional and more homogenous deciduous forest‐dominated landscape. A single transient 40‐y drought led to the development of a novel grassland–steppe ecosystem that persisted indefinitely and caused permanent increases in fires in both the grassland and adjacent vegetation. These simulated changes in vegetation and disturbance dynamics under a warming climate have important implications for regional carbon budgets and biotic feedbacks to regional climate.     

Impact of climatic change on bog ecosystems,with special reference to sub-oceanic raised bogs

The relation between climatic conditions and type of peatland ecosystem in the different climate zones in Europe is discussed. Special attention is given to the hydrology of raised bogs in the sub-oceanic region. Possible effects of climatic change on such raised bog systems are discussed in terms of changes in water discharge, ground-water table, rate of peat accumulation, and flora and vegetation. It is concluded that future changes, as suggested by the more widely accepted scenarios for climatic change, will seriously disrupt the ecological functioning of these peatland ecosystems, and it is doubtful whether at least the most southerly examples of sub-oceanic raised bogs will at all survive. Finally, suggestions are given for future research on the impact of climatic change on peatland ecosystems.     

Global variation in thermal tolerances and vulnerability of endotherms to climate change

The relationships among species'' physiological capacities and the geographical variation of ambient climate are of key importance to understanding the distribution of life on the Earth. Furthermore, predictions of how species will respond to climate change will profit from the explicit consideration of their physiological tolerances. The climatic variability hypothesis, which predicts that climatic tolerances are broader in more variable climates, provides an analytical framework for studying these relationships between physiology and biogeography. However, direct empirical support for the hypothesis is mostly lacking for endotherms, and few studies have tried to integrate physiological data into assessments of species'' climatic vulnerability at the global scale. Here, we test the climatic variability hypothesis for endotherms, with a comprehensive dataset on thermal tolerances derived from physiological experiments, and use these data to assess the vulnerability of species to projected climate change. We find the expected relationship between thermal tolerance and ambient climatic variability in birds, but not in mammals—a contrast possibly resulting from different adaptation strategies to ambient climate via behaviour, morphology or physiology. We show that currently most of the species are experiencing ambient temperatures well within their tolerance limits and that in the future many species may be able to tolerate projected temperature increases across significant proportions of their distributions. However, our findings also underline the high vulnerability of tropical regions to changes in temperature and other threats of anthropogenic global changes. Our study demonstrates that a better understanding of the interplay among species'' physiology and the geography of climate change will advance assessments of species'' vulnerability to climate change.