Estimating soil carbon fluxes following land-cover change: a test of some critical assumptions for a region in Costa Rica

Changes in soil carbon storage that accompany land‐cover change may have significant effects on the global carbon cycle. The objective of this work was to examine how assumptions about preconversion soil C storage and the effects of land‐cover change influence estimates of regional soil C storage. We applied three models of land‐cover change effects to two maps of preconversion soil C in a 140 000 ha area of northeastern Costa Rica. One preconversion soil C map was generated using values assigned to tropical wet forest from the literature, the second used values obtained from extensive field sampling. The first model of land‐cover change effects used values that are typically applied in global assessments, the second and third models used field data but differed in how the data were aggregated (one was based on land‐cover transitions and one was based on terrain attributes). Changes in regional soil C storage were estimated for each combination of model and preconversion soil C for three time periods defined by geo‐referenced land‐cover maps. The estimated regional soil C under forest vegetation (to 0.3 m) was higher in the map based on field data (10.03 Tg C) than in the map based on literature data (8.90 Tg C), although the range of values derived from propagating estimation errors was large (7.67–12.40 Tg C). Regional soil C storage declined through time due to forest clearing for pasture and crops. Estimated CO₂ fluxes depended more on the model of land‐cover change effects than on preconversion soil C. Cumulative soil C losses (1950–1996) under the literature model of land‐cover effects exceeded estimates based on field data by factors of 3.8–8.0. In order to better constrain regional and global‐scale assessments of carbon fluxes from soils in the tropics, future research should focus on methods for extrapolating regional‐scale constraints on soil C dynamics to larger spatial and temporal scales.     

Variable carbon losses from recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands

Tropical peatland fires play a significant role in the context of global warming through emissions of substantial amounts of greenhouse gases. However, the state of knowledge on carbon loss from these fires is still poorly developed with few studies reporting the associated mass of peat consumed. Furthermore, spatial and temporal variations in burn depth have not been previously quantified. This study presents the first spatially explicit investigation of fire‐driven tropical peat loss and its variability. An extensive airborne Light Detection and Ranging data set was used to develop a prefire peat surface modelling methodology, enabling the spatially differentiated quantification of burned area depth over the entire burned area. We observe a strong interdependence between burned area depth, fire frequency and distance to drainage canals. For the first time, we show that relative burned area depth decreases over the first four fire events and is constant thereafter. Based on our results, we revise existing peat and carbon loss estimates for recurrent fires in drained tropical peatlands. We suggest values for the dry mass of peat fuel consumed that are 206 t ha⁻¹ for initial fires, reducing to 115 t ha⁻¹ for second, 69 t ha⁻¹ for third and 23 t ha⁻¹ for successive fires, which are 58–7% of the current IPCC Tier 1 default value for all fires. In our study area, this results in carbon losses of 114, 64, 38 and 13 t C ha⁻¹ for first to fourth fires, respectively. Furthermore, we show that with increasing proximity to drainage canals both burned area depth and the probability of recurrent fires increase and present equations explaining burned area depth as a function of distance to drainage canal. This improved knowledge enables a more accurate approach to emissions accounting and will support IPCC Tier 2 reporting of fire emissions.     

Habitat Loss,Not Fragmentation,Drives Occurrence Patterns of Canada Lynx at the Southern Range Periphery

Peripheral populations often experience more extreme environmental conditions than those in the centre of a species'' range. Such extreme conditions include habitat loss, defined as a reduction in the amount of suitable habitat, as well as habitat fragmentation, which involves the breaking apart of habitat independent of habitat loss. The ‘threshold hypothesis’ predicts that organisms will be more affected by habitat fragmentation when the amount of habitat on the landscape is scarce (i.e., less than 30%) than when habitat is abundant, implying that habitat fragmentation may compound habitat loss through changes in patch size and configuration. Alternatively, the ‘flexibility hypothesis’ predicts that individuals may respond to increased habitat disturbance by altering their selection patterns and thereby reducing sensitivity to habitat loss and fragmentation. While the range of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) has contracted during recent decades, the relative importance of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation on this phenomenon is poorly understood. We used a habitat suitability model for lynx to identify suitable land cover in Ontario, and contrasted occupancy patterns across landscapes differing in cover, to test the ‘threshold hypothesis’ and ‘flexibility hypothesis’. When suitable land cover was widely available, lynx avoided areas with less than 30% habitat and were unaffected by habitat fragmentation. However, on landscapes with minimal suitable land cover, lynx occurrence was not related to either habitat loss or habitat fragmentation, indicating support for the ‘flexibility hypothesis’. We conclude that lynx are broadly affected by habitat loss, and not specifically by habitat fragmentation, although occurrence patterns are flexible and dependent on landscape condition. We suggest that lynx may alter their habitat selection patterns depending on local conditions, thereby reducing their sensitivity to anthropogenically-driven habitat alteration.     

Ecuador’s Mangrove Forest Carbon Stocks: A Spatiotemporal Analysis of Living Carbon Holdings and Their Depletion since the Advent of Commercial Aquaculture

In this paper we estimate the living carbon lost from Ecuador’s mangrove forests since the advent of export-focused shrimp aquaculture. We use remote sensing techniques to delineate the extent of mangroves and aquaculture at approximately decadal periods since the arrival of aquaculture in each Ecuadorian estuary. We then spatiotemporally calculate the carbon values of the mangrove forests and estimate the amount of carbon lost due to direct displacement by aquaculture. Additionally, we calculate the new carbon stocks generated due to mangrove reforestation or afforestation. This research introduces time and LUCC (land use / land cover change) into the tropical forest carbon literature and examines forest carbon loss at a higher spatiotemporal resolution than in many earlier analyses. We find that 80 percent, or 7,014,517 t of the living carbon lost in Ecuadorian mangrove forests can be attributed to direct displacement of mangrove forests by shrimp aquaculture. We also find that IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) compliant carbon grids within Ecuador’s estuaries overestimate living carbon levels in estuaries where substantial LUCC has occurred. By approaching the mangrove forest carbon loss question from a LUCC perspective, these findings allow for tropical nations and other intervention agents to prioritize and target a limited set of land transitions that likely drive the majority of carbon losses. This singular cause of transition has implications for programs that attempt to offset or limit future forest carbon losses and place value on forest carbon or other forest good and services.     

Deforestation and Forest Fragmentation in South Ecuador since the 1970s – Losing a Hotspot of Biodiversity

Deforestation and fragmentation are major components of global change; both are contributing to the rapid loss of tropical forest area with important implications for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. The forests of South Ecuador are a biological ‘hotspot’ due to their high diversity and endemism levels. We examined the deforestation and fragmentation patterns in this area of high conservation value using aerial photographs and Aster satellite scenes. The registered annual deforestation rates of 0.75% (1976–1989) and 2.86% (1989–2008) for two consecutive survey periods, the decreasing mean patch size and the increasing isolation of the forest fragments show that the area is under severe threat. Approximately 46% of South Ecuador’s original forest cover had been converted by 2008 into pastures and other anthropogenic land cover types. We found that deforestation is more intense at lower elevations (premontane evergreen forest and shrubland) and that the deforestation front currently moves in upslope direction. Improved awareness of the spatial extent, dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation is urgently needed in biologically diverse areas like South Ecuador.     

Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO₂ emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO₂ emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO₂ emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.     

Global ecosystems and fire: Multi‐model assessment of fire‐induced tree‐cover and carbon storage reduction

In this study, we use simulations from seven global vegetation models to provide the first multi‐model estimate of fire impacts on global tree cover and the carbon cycle under current climate and anthropogenic land use conditions, averaged for the years 2001–2012. Fire globally reduces the tree covered area and vegetation carbon storage by 10%. Regionally, the effects are much stronger, up to 20% for certain latitudinal bands, and 17% in savanna regions. Global fire effects on total carbon storage and carbon turnover times are lower with the effect on gross primary productivity (GPP) close to 0. We find the strongest impacts of fire in savanna regions. Climatic conditions in regions with the highest burned area differ from regions with highest absolute fire impact, which are characterized by higher precipitation. Our estimates of fire‐induced vegetation change are lower than previous studies. We attribute these differences to different definitions of vegetation change and effects of anthropogenic land use, which were not considered in previous studies and decreases the impact of fire on tree cover. Accounting for fires significantly improves the spatial patterns of simulated tree cover, which demonstrates the need to represent fire in dynamic vegetation models. Based upon comparisons between models and observations, process understanding and representation in models, we assess a higher confidence in the fire impact on tree cover and vegetation carbon compared to GPP, total carbon storage and turnover times. We have higher confidence in the spatial patterns compared to the global totals of the simulated fire impact. As we used an ensemble of state‐of‐the‐art fire models, including effects of land use and the ensemble median or mean compares better to observational datasets than any individual model, we consider the here presented results to be the current best estimate of global fire effects on ecosystems.     

Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species

Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years) scenarios for the 800 km² study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5–30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and ‘increased grazing’ (the opposite conversion) the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the ‘reduced grazing’ scenario were nonlinear. ‘Scenario-led’ landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.     

Mesozoic origin and ‘out-of-India’ radiation of ricefishes (Adrianichthyidae)

The Indian subcontinent has an origin geologically different from Eurasia, but many terrestrial animal and plant species on it have congeneric or sister species in other parts of Asia, especially in the Southeast. This faunal and floral similarity between India and Southeast Asia is explained by either of the two biogeographic scenarios, ‘into-India’ or ‘out-of-India’. Phylogenies based on complete mitochondrial genomes and five nuclear genes were undertaken for ricefishes (Adrianichthyidae) to examine which of these two biogeographic scenarios fits better. We found that Oryzias setnai, the only adrianichthyid distributed in and endemic to the Western Ghats, a mountain range running parallel to the western coast of the Indian subcontinent, is sister to all other adrianichthyids from eastern India and Southeast–East Asia. Divergence time estimates and ancestral area reconstructions reveal that this western Indian species diverged in the late Mesozoic during the northward drift of the Indian subcontinent. These findings indicate that adrianichthyids dispersed eastward ‘out-of-India’ after the collision of the Indian subcontinent with Eurasia, and subsequently diversified in Southeast–East Asia. A review of geographic distributions of ‘out-of-India’ taxa reveals that they may have largely fuelled or modified the biodiversity of Eurasia.     

Plumbing the Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Inland Waters into the Terrestrial Carbon Budget

ABSTRACT Because freshwater covers such a small fraction of the Earth’s surface area, inland freshwater ecosystems (particularly lakes, rivers, and reservoirs) have rarely been considered as potentially important quantitative components of the carbon cycle at either global or regional scales. By taking published estimates of gas exchange, sediment accumulation, and carbon transport for a variety of aquatic systems, we have constructed a budget for the role of inland water ecosystems in the global carbon cycle. Our analysis conservatively estimates that inland waters annually receive, from a combination of background and anthropogenically altered sources, on the order of 1.9 Pg C y⁻¹ from the terrestrial landscape, of which about 0.2 is buried in aquatic sediments, at least 0.8 (possibly much more) is returned to the atmosphere as gas exchange while the remaining 0.9 Pg y⁻¹ is delivered to the oceans, roughly equally as inorganic and organic carbon. Thus, roughly twice as much C enters inland aquatic systems from land as is exported from land to the sea. Over prolonged time net carbon fluxes in aquatic systems tend to be greater per unit area than in much of the surrounding land. Although their area is small, these freshwater aquatic systems can affect regional C balances. Further, the inclusion of inland, freshwater ecosystems provides useful insight about the storage, oxidation and transport of terrestrial C, and may warrant a revision of how the modern net C sink on land is described.     

Large climate mitigation potential from adding trees to agricultural lands

While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of the mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. Here we combine 30 meter resolution global maps of aboveground woody carbon, tree cover, and cropland extent, as well as a 1 km resolution map of global pasture land, to estimate the current and potential carbon storage of trees in nonforested portions of agricultural lands. We find that global croplands currently store 3.07 Pg of carbon (C) in aboveground woody biomass (i.e., trees) and pasture lands account for an additional 3.86 Pg C across a combined 3.76 billion ha. We then estimate the climate mitigation potential of multiple scenarios of integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands based on region‐specific biomass distributions. We evaluate our findings in the context of nationally determined contributions and find that the majority of potential carbon storage from integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands is in countries that do not identify agroforestry as a climate mitigation technique.     

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

Central Africa’s tropical forests are among the world’s largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection — forest management that is low or nonexistent — ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO₂ year^-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO₂ year^-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy’s influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC’s forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle.     

Multidate,multisensor remote sensing reveals high density of carbon‐rich mountain peatlands in the páramo of Ecuador

Tropical peatlands store a significant portion of the global soil carbon (C) pool. However, tropical mountain peatlands contain extensive peat soils that have yet to be mapped or included in global C estimates. This lack of data hinders our ability to inform policy and apply sustainable management practices to these peatlands that are experiencing unprecedented high rates of land use and land cover change. Rapid large‐scale mapping activities are urgently needed to quantify tropical wetland extent and rate of degradation. We tested a combination of multidate, multisensor radar and optical imagery (Landsat TM/PALSAR/RADARSAT‐1/TPI image stack) for detecting peatlands in a 2715 km² area in the high elevation mountains of the Ecuadorian páramo. The map was combined with an extensive soil coring data set to produce the first estimate of regional peatland soil C storage in the páramo. Our map displayed a high coverage of peatlands (614 km²) containing an estimated 128.2 ± 9.1 Tg of peatland belowground soil C within the mapping area. Scaling‐up to the country level, páramo peatlands likely represent less than 1% of the total land area of Ecuador but could contain as much as ~23% of the above‐ and belowground vegetation C stocks in Ecuadorian forests. These mapping approaches provide an essential methodological improvement applicable to mountain peatlands across the globe, facilitating mapping efforts in support of effective policy and sustainable management, including national and global C accounting and C management efforts.     

Testing the Sensitivity of Tract-Based Spatial Statistics to Simulated Treatment Effects in Preterm Neonates

Early neuroimaging may provide a surrogate marker for brain development and outcome after preterm birth. Tract-Based Spatial Statistics (TBSS) is an advanced Diffusion Tensor Image (DTI) analysis technique that is sensitive to the effects of prematurity and may provide a quantitative marker for neuroprotection following perinatal brain injury or preterm birth. Here, we test the sensitivity of TBSS to detect diffuse microstructural differences in the developing white matter of preterm infants at term-equivalent age by modelling a ‘treatment’ effect as a global increase in fractional anisotropy (FA). As proof of concept we compare these simulations to a real effect of increasing age at scan. 3-Tesla, 15-direction diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) was acquired from 90 preterm infants at term-equivalent age. Datasets were randomly assigned to ‘treated’ or ‘untreated’ groups of increasing size and voxel-wise increases in FA were used to simulate global treatment effects of increasing magnitude in all ‘treated’ maps. ‘Treated’ and ‘untreated’ FA maps were compared using TBSS. Predictions from simulated data were then compared to exemplar TBSS group comparisons based on increasing postmenstrual age at scan. TBSS proved sensitive to global differences in FA within a clinically relevant range, even in relatively small group sizes, and simulated data were shown to predict well a true biological effect of increasing age on white matter development. These data confirm that TBSS is a sensitive tool for detecting global group-wise differences in FA in this population.     

High Levels of Heterogeneity in the HIV Cascade of Care across Different Population Subgroups in British Columbia,Canada

Background

The HIV cascade of care (cascade) is a comprehensive tool which identifies attrition along the HIV care continuum. We executed analyses to explicate heterogeneity in the cascade across key strata, as well as identify predictors of attrition across stages of the cascade.

Methods

Using linked individual-level data for the population of HIV-positive individuals in BC, we considered the 2011 calendar year, including individuals diagnosed at least 6 months prior, and excluding individuals that died or were lost to follow-up before January 1^st, 2011. We defined five stages in the cascade framework: HIV ‘diagnosed’, ‘linked’ to care, ‘retained’ in care, ‘on HAART’ and virologically ‘suppressed’. We stratified the cascade by sex, age, risk category, and regional health authority. Finally, multiple logistic regression models were built to predict attrition across each stage of the cascade, adjusting for stratification variables.

Results

We identified 7621 HIV diagnosed individuals during the study period; 80% were male and 5% were <30, 17% 30–39, 37% 40–49 and 40% were ≥50 years. Of these, 32% were MSM, 28% IDU, 8% MSM/IDU, 12% heterosexual, and 20% other. Overall, 85% of individuals ‘on HAART’ were ‘suppressed’; however, this proportion ranged from 60%–93% in our various stratifications. Most individuals, in all subgroups, were lost between the stages: ‘linked’ to ‘retained’ and ‘on HAART’ to ‘suppressed’. Subgroups with the highest attrition between these stages included females and individuals <30 years (regardless of transmission risk group). IDUs experienced the greatest attrition of all subgroups. Logistic regression results found extensive statistically significant heterogeneity in attrition across the cascade between subgroups and regional health authorities.

Conclusions

We found that extensive heterogeneity in attrition existed across subgroups and regional health authorities along the HIV cascade of care in B.C., Canada. Our results provide critical information to optimize engagement in care and health service delivery.     

Non-Invasive Continuous Respiratory Monitoring on General Hospital Wards: A Systematic Review

Background

Failure to recognize acute deterioration in hospitalized patients may contribute to cardiopulmonary arrest, unscheduled intensive care unit admission and increased mortality.

Purpose

In this systematic review we aimed to determine whether continuous non-invasive respiratory monitoring improves early diagnosis of patient deterioration and reduces critical incidents on hospital wards.

Data Sources

Studies were retrieved from Medline, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane library, searched from 1970 till October 25, 2014.

Study Selection

Electronic databases were searched using keywords and corresponding synonyms ‘ward’, ‘continuous’, ‘monitoring’ and ‘respiration’. Pediatric, fetal and animal studies were excluded.

Data Extraction

Since no validated tool is currently available for diagnostic or intervention studies with continuous monitoring, methodological quality was assessed with a modified tool based on modified STARD, CONSORT, and TREND statements.

Data Synthesis

Six intervention and five diagnostic studies were included, evaluating the use of eight different devices for continuous respiratory monitoring. Quantitative data synthesis was not possible because intervention, study design and outcomes differed considerably between studies. Outcomes estimates for the intervention studies ranged from RR 0.14 (0.03, 0.64) for cardiopulmonary resuscitation to RR 1.00 (0.41, 2.35) for unplanned ICU admission after introduction of continuous respiratory monitoring,

Limitations

The methodological quality of most studies was moderate, e.g. ‘before-after’ designs, incomplete reporting of primary outcomes, and incomplete clinical implementation of the monitoring system.

Conclusions

Based on the findings of this systematic review, implementation of routine continuous non-invasive respiratory monitoring on general hospital wards cannot yet be advocated as results are inconclusive, and methodological quality of the studies needs improvement. Future research in this area should focus on technology explicitly suitable for low care settings and tailored alarm and treatment algorithms.     

Press Releases Issued by Supplements Industry Organisations and Non-Industry Organisations in Response to Publication of Clinical Research Findings: A Case-Control Study

Background

Dietary supplement use is increasing despite lack of evidence of benefits, or evidence of harm. Press releases issued by the supplements industry might contribute to this situation by using ‘spin’ (strategies to hype or denigrate findings) to distort the results of clinical studies. We assessed press releases issued in response to publication of clinical studies on dietary supplements.

Methods and Findings

We analyzed 47 supplements industry press releases and 91 non-industry press releases and news stories, generated in response to 46 clinical studies of dietary supplements published between 1/1/2005 and 5/31/2013. The primary outcome was ‘spin’ content and direction. We also assessed disposition towards use of dietary supplements, reporting of study information, and dissemination of industry press releases. More supplements industry press releases (100%) contained ‘spin’ than non-industry media documents (55%, P<0.001). Hyping ‘spin’ scores were higher in industry than non-industry media documents for studies reporting benefit of supplements (median ‘spin’ score 3.3, 95% CI 1.0–5.5 vs 0.5, 0–1.0; P<0.001). Denigratory ‘spin’ scores were higher in industry than non-industry media documents for studies reporting no effect (6.0, 5.0–7.0 vs 0, 0–0; P<0.001) or harm (6.0, 5.5–7.5 vs 0, 0–0.5; P<0.001) from a supplement. Industry press releases advocated supplement use in response to >90% of studies that reported no benefit, or harm, of the supplement. Industry press releases less frequently reported study outcomes, sample size, and estimates of effect size than non-industry media documents (all P<0.001), particularly for studies that reported no benefit of supplements. Industry press releases were referenced by 148 news stories on the websites of 6 organizations that inform manufacturers, retailers and consumers of supplements.

Conclusions

Dietary supplements industry press releases issued in response to clinical research findings are characterized by ‘spin’ that hypes results that are favourable to supplement use and denigrates results that are not.     

Monitoring Herbivorous Fishes as Indicators of Coral Reef Resilience in American Samoa

Resilience-based management aims to promote or protect processes and species that underpin an ecosystem''s capacity to withstand and recover from disturbance. The management of ecological processes is a developing field that requires reliable indicators that can be monitored over time. Herbivory is a key ecological process on coral reefs, and pooling herbivorous fishes into functional groups based on their feeding mode is increasingly used as it may quantify herbivory in ways that indicate resilience. Here we evaluate whether the biomass estimates of these herbivore functional groups are good predictors of reef benthic assemblages, using data from 240 sites from five island groups in American Samoa. Using an information theoretic approach, we assembled a candidate set of linear and nonlinear models to identify the relations between benthic cover and total herbivore and non-herbivore biomass and the biomass of the aforementioned functional groups. For each benthic substrate type considered (encrusting algae, fleshy macroalgae, hard coral and turf algae), the biomass of herbivorous fishes were important explanatory variables in predicting benthic cover, whereas biomass of all fishes combined generally was not. Also, in all four cases, variation in cover was best explained by the biomass of specific functional groups rather than by all herbivores combined. Specifically: 1) macroalgal and turf algal cover decreased with increasing biomass of ‘grazers/detritivores’; and 2) cover of encrusting algae increased with increasing biomass of ‘grazers/detritivores’ and browsers. Furthermore, hard coral cover increased with the biomass of large excavators/bio-eroders (made up of large-bodied parrotfishes). Collectively, these findings emphasize the link between herbivorous fishes and the benthic community and demonstrate support for the use of functional groups of herbivores as indicators for resilience-based monitoring.