Cooperation and Shared Beliefs about Trust in the Assurance Game

Determinants of cooperation include ingroup vs. outgroup membership, and individual traits, such as prosociality and trust. We investigated whether these factors can be overridden by beliefs about people’s trust. We manipulated the information players received about each other’s level of general trust, “high” or “low”. These levels were either measured (Experiment 1) or just arbitrarily assigned labels (Experiment 2). Players’ choices whether to cooperate or defect in a stag hunt (or an assurance game)—where it is mutually beneficial to cooperate, but costly if the partner should fail to do so—were strongly predicted by what they were told about the other player’s trust label, as well as by what they were told that the other player was told about their own label. Our findings demonstrate the importance for cooperation in a risky coordination game of both first- and second-order beliefs about how much people trust each other. This supports the idea that institutions can influence cooperation simply by influencing beliefs.     

Estimating the conditional probability of developing human papilloma virus related oropharyngeal cancer by combining machine learning and inverse Bayesian modelling

The epidemic increase in the incidence of Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinomas (OPSCCs) in several countries worldwide represents a significant public health concern. Although gender neutral HPV vaccination programmes are expected to cause a reduction in the incidence rates of OPSCCs, these effects will not be evident in the foreseeable future. Secondary prevention strategies are currently not feasible due to an incomplete understanding of the natural history of oral HPV infections in OPSCCs. The key parameters that govern natural history models remain largely ill-defined for HPV related OPSCCs and cannot be easily inferred from experimental data. Mathematical models have been used to estimate some of these ill-defined parameters in cervical cancer, another HPV related cancer leading to successful implementation of cancer prevention strategies. We outline a “double-Bayesian” mathematical modelling approach, whereby, a Bayesian machine learning model first estimates the probability of an individual having an oral HPV infection, given OPSCC and other covariate information. The model is then inverted using Bayes’ theorem to reverse the probability relationship. We use data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registry, SEER Head and Neck with HPV Database and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES), representing the adult population in the United States to derive our model. The model contains 8,106 OPSCC patients of which 73.0% had an oral HPV infection. When stratified by age, sex, marital status and race/ethnicity, the model estimated a higher conditional probability for developing OPSCCs given an oral HPV infection in non-Hispanic White males and females compared to other races/ethnicities. The proposed Bayesian model represents a proof-of-concept of a natural history model of HPV driven OPSCCs and outlines a strategy for estimating the conditional probability of an individual’s risk of developing OPSCC following an oral HPV infection.     

"Willing to Pay?" Tax Compliance in Britain and Italy: An Experimental Analysis

As shown by the recent crisis, tax evasion poses a significant problem for countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy. While these societies certainly possess weaker fiscal institutions as compared to other EU members, might broader cultural differences between northern and southern Europe also help to explain citizens’ (un)willingness to pay their taxes? To address this question, we conduct laboratory experiments in the UK and Italy, two countries which straddle this North-South divide. Our design allows us to examine citizens’ willingness to contribute to public goods via taxes while holding institutions constant. We report a surprising result: when faced with identical tax institutions, redistribution rules and audit probabilities, Italian participants are significantly more likely to comply than Britons. Overall, our findings cast doubt upon “culturalist” arguments that would attribute cross-country differences in tax compliance to the lack of morality amongst southern European taxpayers.     

Using Trust to Establish a Secure Routing Model in Cognitive Radio Network

Specific to the selective forwarding attack on routing in cognitive radio network, this paper proposes a trust-based secure routing model. Through monitoring nodes’ forwarding behaviors, trusts of nodes are constructed to identify malicious nodes. In consideration of that routing selection-based model must be closely collaborative with spectrum allocation, a route request piggybacking available spectrum opportunities is sent to non-malicious nodes. In the routing decision phase, nodes’ trusts are used to construct available path trusts and delay measurement is combined for making routing decisions. At the same time, according to the trust classification, different responses are made specific to their service requests. By adopting stricter punishment on malicious behaviors from non-trusted nodes, the cooperation of nodes in routing can be stimulated. Simulation results and analysis indicate that this model has good performance in network throughput and end-to-end delay under the selective forwarding attack.     

The Gap between Individual Perception and Compliance: A Qualitative Follow-Up Study of the Surgical Safety Checklist Application

Background

“The Surgical Safety Checklist (SSC) is important, but we don’t use it adequately” is a well-suited statement that reflects the SSC''s application in hospitals. Our aim was to follow up on our initial study on compliance (2014) by analysing differences between individual perception and compliance with the SSC.

Methods

We conducted a follow-up online survey to assess healthcare professionals’ individual perception of, as well as satisfaction and compliance with the SSC three years following its thorough implementation.

Results

171 (19.5%) of 875 operating team members completed the online survey. 99.4% confirmed using the SSC. Self-estimated subjective knowledge about the intention of the checklist was high, whereas objective knowledge was moderate, but improved as compared to 2014. According to an independent audit the SSC was used in 93.1% of all operations and among the SSCs used the completion rate was 57.2%. The use of the SSC was rated as rather easy [median (IQR): 7 (6–7)], familiar [7 (6–7)], generally important [7 (7–7)], and good for patients [7 (6–7)] as well as for employees [7 (7–7)]. Only comfort of use was rated lower [6 (5–7)].

Conclusion

There is a gap between individual perception and actual application of the SSC. Despite healthcare professionals confirming the importance of the SSC, compliance was moderate. The introduction of SSCs in the health care sector remains a constant challenge and requires continuous re-evaluation as well as a sensible integration into existing workflows in hospitals.     

Evolutionary Stability in the Asymmetric Volunteer's Dilemma

It is often assumed that in public goods games, contributors are either strong or weak players and each individual has an equal probability of exhibiting cooperation. It is difficult to explain why the public good is produced by strong individuals in some cooperation systems, and by weak individuals in others. Viewing the asymmetric volunteer''s dilemma game as an evolutionary game, we find that whether the strong or the weak players produce the public good depends on the initial condition (i.e., phenotype or initial strategy of individuals). These different evolutionarily stable strategies (ESS) associated with different initial conditions, can be interpreted as the production modes of public goods of different cooperation systems. A further analysis revealed that the strong player adopts a pure strategy but mixed strategies for the weak players to produce the public good, and that the probability of volunteering by weak players decreases with increasing group size or decreasing cost-benefit ratio. Our model shows that the defection probability of a “strong” player is greater than the “weak” players in the model of Diekmann (1993). This contradicts Selten''s (1980) model that public goods can only be produced by a strong player, is not an evolutionarily stable strategy, and will therefore disappear over evolutionary time. Our public good model with ESS has thus extended previous interpretations that the public good can only be produced by strong players in an asymmetric game.     

Implicit Goalkeeper Influences on Goal Side Selection in Representative Penalty Kicking Tasks

In well-controlled lab situations, marginal displacements of the goalkeeper on the goal line affect goal side selection of penalty takers implicitly, that is, without the penalty takers being consciously aware of the displacement. Whether this effect is retained in more representative real-life situations with competing goalkeepers and penalty takers has not been verified. In the current study, penalty takers were instructed to position the goalkeepers at the centre of the goal. They then performed penalty kicks adopting either a keeper independent or a keeper dependent strategy, while goalkeepers actually attempted to save the ball by strategically diving early or late. Analyses of trials in which penalty takers failed to place the goalkeeper in the centre of the goal (although they incorrectly believed they placed the goalkeeper at the centre of the goal) showed that implicit influences of the goalkeeper’s position on goal side selection were overridden by the (conscious) perception of the direction of the goalkeeper’s dive, but only if the penalty takers deliberately monitored the goalkeeper’s action and the goalkeeper committed early enough for penalty takers to respond. In all other combinations of penalty kick and goalkeeper strategies more than 60% of the kicks were directed to the side of the goal with more space. Most importantly, however, the current study shows that influences of implicit perception on the penalty takers’ decision making are rather pervasive considering that many supraliminal sources of information were available. That is, the current study demonstrates that implicit perception retains its influence on decision-making even if other (stronger) stimuli are also present.     

Failed Replication of Oxytocin Effects on Trust: The Envelope Task Case

The neurohormone Oxytocin (OT) has been one of the most studied peptides in behavioral sciences over the past two decades. Many studies have suggested that OT could increase trusting behaviors. A previous study, based on the “Envelope Task” paradigm, where trust is assessed by the degree of openness of an envelope containing participant’s confidential information, showed that OT increases trusting behavior and reported one of the most powerful effects of OT on a behavioral variable. In this paper we present two failed replications of this effect, despite sufficient power to replicate the original large effect. The non-significant results of these two failed replications clearly exclude a large effect of OT on trust in this paradigm but are compatible with either a null effect of OT on trust, or a small effect, undetectable with small sample size (N = 95 and 61 in Study 1 and 2, respectively). Taken together, our results question the purported size of OT’s effect on trust and emphasize the need for replications.     

U-Shaped Relation between Plasma Oxytocin Levels and Behavior in the Trust Game

Trust underpins much of social and economic exchanges across human societies. In experimental economics, the Trust Game has served as the workhorse for the study of trust in a controlled incentivized setting. Recent evidence using intranasal drug administration, aka ‘sniffing’, suggests that oxytocin (OT) can function as a social hormone facilitating trust and other affiliative behaviors. Here we hypothesized that baseline plasma OT is a biomarker that partially predicts the degree of trust and trustworthiness observed in the trust game. Using a large sample of 1,158 participants, we observed a significant U-shaped relationship between plasma OT with the level of trust, and marginally with the level of trustworthiness, especially among males. Specifically, subjects with more extreme levels of plasma OT were more likely to be trusting as well as trustworthy than those with moderate levels of plasma OT. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of the biological basis of human trust and underscore the usefulness of peripheral plasma OT measures in characterizing human social behavior. “You must trust and believe in people or life becomes impossible.” Anton Chekhov.     

Plant CSR types in the north: comparing the morphological and morpho-physiological approaches

Grime’s competition–stress–ruderal (CSR) theory is widely used to study plant species’ responses to multiple environmental factors. We compared two models to allocate CSR types the global “StrateFy” model (Pierce et al. Funct Ecol, 31:444–457, 2017) and a locally developed morpho-physiological model (Novakovskiy et al. Int J Ecol, p e1323614, 2016). The “StrateFy” model is based on three morphological leaf traits: leaf area (LA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC) and specific leaf area (SLA). The morpho-physiological model additionally uses plant height (PH), leaf dry weight (LDW), photosynthetic capacity (PN) and respiration rate (RD), leaf nitrogen, and carbon concentration (LNC, LCC). We applied both models to 74 plant species, the traits of which were measured at mountain (Northern Urals) and plane (Komi Republic, Russia) landscapes of European Northeast. The comparison of the calculated C, S, and R scores showed two groups of species with large and unidirectional differences. The first group consists of species with a shift from S (morpho-physiological model) to CR (StrateFy model) strategy. Species of this group are typical for deep shaded habitats and characterized by low LDMC (10–25%) and high SLA (30–60 mm² mg⁻¹). The second group consists of C species (morpho-physiological model) which were classified as S (StrateFy model) strategy. This group includes mainly tall shrubs, graminoids, and forbs with relatively small leaves (300–2000 mm²). In our opinion, the CSR strategies obtained by the morpho-physiological model showed better agreement with the basic principles underlying Grime''s theory. The use of a limited number of morphological traits (LA, LDMC, SLA) in the StrateFy model does not always allow to determine the life strategy correctly. For example, these traits are insufficient for a clear separation of deeply shaded stress-tolerant species and ruderals. On the other hand, the use of the morpho-physiological model requires a large number of field measurements, which makes it difficult to use this model to allocate CSR strategies for a large number of species.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12298-021-00973-9.     

Comment on the Letter by A. Ben-Shaul: “Entropy,Energy, and Bending of DNA in Viral Capsids”

The conformational entropic penalty associated with packaging double-stranded DNA into viral capsids remains an issue of contention. So far, models based on a continuum approximation for DNA have either left the question unexamined, or they have assumed that the entropic penalty is negligible, following an early analysis by Riemer and Bloomfield. In contrast, molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations using bead-and-spring models consistently show a large penalty. A recent letter from Ben-Shaul attempts to reconcile the differences. While the letter makes some valid points, the issue of how to include conformational entropy in the continuum models remains unresolved. In this Comment, I show that the free energy decomposition from continuum models could be brought into line with the decomposition from the MD simulations with two adjustments. First, the entropy from Flory-Huggins theory should be replaced by the estimate of the entropic penalty given in Ben-Shaul’s letter, which corresponds closely to that from the MD simulations. Second, the DNA-DNA repulsions are well described by the empirical relationship given by the Cal Tech group, but the strength of these should be reduced by about half, using parameters based on the Rau-Parsegian experiments, rather than treating them as “fitting parameters (tuned) to fit the data from (single molecule pulling) experiments.”     

Validation of the Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) for dengue outbreaks: Evidence from the national vector control program in Mexico

BackgroundDuring 2017, twenty health districts (locations) implemented a dengue outbreak Early Warning and Response System (EWARS) in Mexico, which processes epidemiological, meteorological and entomological alarm indicators to predict dengue outbreaks and triggers early response activities.Out of the 20 priority districts where more than one fifth of all national disease transmission in Mexico occur, eleven districts were purposely selected and analyzed. Nine districts presented outbreak alarms by EWARS but without subsequent outbreaks (“non-outbreak districts”) and two presented alarms with subsequent dengue outbreaks (“outbreak districts”). This evaluation study assesses and compares the impact of alarm-informed response activities and the consequences of failing a timely and adequate response across the outbreak groups.MethodsFive indicators of dengue outbreak response (larval control, entomological studies with water container interventions, focal spraying and indoor residual spraying) were quantitatively analyzed across two groups (”outbreak districts” and “non-outbreak districts”). However, for quality control purposes, only qualitative concluding remarks were derived from the fifth response indicator (fogging).ResultsThe average coverage of vector control responses was significantly higher in non-outbreak districts and across all four indicators. In the “outbreak districts” the response activities started late and were of much lower intensity compared to “non-outbreak districts”. Vector control teams at districts-level demonstrated diverse levels of compliance with local guidelines for ‘initial’, ‘early’ and ‘late’ responses to outbreak alarms, which could potentially explain the different outcomes observed following the outbreak alarms.ConclusionFailing timely and adequate response of alarm signals generated by EWARS showed to negatively impact the disease outbreak control process. On the other hand, districts with adequate and timely response guided by alarm signals demonstrated successful records of outbreak prevention. This study presents important operational scenarios when failing or successding EWARS but warrants investigating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of EWARS using a more robust designs.     

Controlling Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs) in Haiti: Implementation Strategies and Evidence of Their Success

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) and soil-transmitted helminths (STH) have been targeted since 2000 in Haiti, with a strong mass drug administration (MDA) program led by the Ministry of Public Health and Population and its collaborating international partners. By 2012, Haiti’s neglected tropical disease (NTD) program had reached full national scale, and with such consistently good epidemiological coverage that it is now able to stop treatment for LF throughout almost all of the country. Essential to this success have been in the detail of how MDAs were implemented. These key programmatic elements included ensuring strong community awareness through an evidence-based, multi-channel communication and education campaign facilitated by voluntary drug distributors; strengthening community trust of the drug distributors by ensuring that respected community members were recruited and received appropriate training, supervision, identification, and motivation; enforcing a “directly observed treatment” strategy; providing easy access to treatment though numerous distribution posts and a strong drug supply chain; and ensuring quality data collection that was used to guide and inform MDA strategies. The evidence that these strategies were effective lies in both the high treatment coverage obtained– 100% geographical coverage reached in 2012, with almost all districts consistently achieving well above the epidemiological coverage targets of 65% for LF and 75% for STH—and the significant reduction in burden of infection– 45 communes having reached the target threshold for stopping treatment for LF. By taking advantage of sustained international financial and technical support, especially during the past eight years, Haiti’s very successful MDA campaign resulted in steady progress toward LF elimination and development of a strong foundation for ongoing STH control. These efforts, as described, have not only helped establish the global portfolio of “best practices” for NTD control but also are poised to help solve two of the most important future NTD challenges—how to maintain control of STH infections after the community-based LF “treatment platform” ceases and how to ensure appropriate morbidity management for patients currently suffering from lymphatic filarial disease.     

A Multi-Component Model of Hodgkin's Lymphoma

Hodgkin’s lymphoma is an example for a tumor with an extremely tight interaction of tumor cells with cells from the tumor micro-environment. These so-called bystander cells are not inert but interact actively with the tumor cells. Some of these cells support tumor growth by delivery of co-stimulating and anti-apoptotic signals (“helper cells”). Other cells (“killer cells”) are involved in the anti-tumor immune response which is obviously not efficient enough for tumor elimination. The activity of both helper cells and killer cells is regulated by additional cells in the stroma (“regulatory cells”). The dynamic behavior of such multi-component systems is difficult to predict. In the present paper we propose a model that can be used for simulation of essential features of this system. In this model, tumor growth depends on (i) presence of few cancer stem cells, (ii) co-stimulation of cancer cells by the tumor stroma, (iii) activity of regulatory cells that suppress killer cells without suppression of helper cells. The success of cytotoxic/cytostatic therapy in this model varies depending on the therapy-related toxicity for each of the cell populations. The model also allows the analysis of immunotherapeutic interventions. Under certain conditions, paradox enhancement of tumor growth can occur after therapeutic intervention. The model might be useful for the design of new treatment strategies for Hodgkin’s lymphoma and other tumors with prominent tumor-stroma interaction.     

Meiotic Cas9 expression mediates gene conversion in the male and female mouse germline

Highly efficient gene conversion systems have the potential to facilitate the study of complex genetic traits using laboratory mice and, if implemented as a “gene drive,” to limit loss of biodiversity and disease transmission caused by wild rodent populations. We previously showed that such a system of gene conversion from heterozygous to homozygous after a sequence targeted CRISPR/Cas9 double-strand DNA break (DSB) is feasible in the female mouse germline. In the male germline, however, all DSBs were instead repaired by end joining (EJ) mechanisms to form an “insertion/deletion” (indel) mutation. These observations suggested that timing Cas9 expression to coincide with meiosis I is critical to favor conditions when homologous chromosomes are aligned and interchromosomal homology-directed repair (HDR) mechanisms predominate. Here, using a Cas9 knock-in allele at the Spo11 locus, we show that meiotic expression of Cas9 does indeed mediate gene conversion in the male as well as in the female germline. However, the low frequency of both HDR and indel mutation in both male and female germlines suggests that Cas9 may be expressed from the Spo11 locus at levels too low for efficient DSB formation. We suggest that more robust Cas9 expression initiated during early meiosis I may improve the efficiency of gene conversion and further increase the rate of “super-mendelian” inheritance from both male and female mice.

This study shows that while Cas9 expression during meiosis I promotes genotype conversion - the mechanism underlying CRISPR ’gene drive’ - in both male and female mice, timing and high levels of Cas9 protein are critical to achieve robust efficiency.     

Evolution of Conformity in Social Dilemmas

People often deviate from their individual Nash equilibrium strategy in game experiments based on the prisoner’s dilemma (PD) game and the public goods game (PGG), whereas conditional cooperation, or conformity, is supported by the data from these experiments. In a complicated environment with no obvious “dominant” strategy, conformists who choose the average strategy of the other players in their group could be able to avoid risk by guaranteeing their income will be close to the group average. In this paper, we study the repeated PD game and the repeated m-person PGG, where individuals’ strategies are restricted to the set of conforming strategies. We define a conforming strategy by two parameters, initial action in the game and the influence of the other players’ choices in the previous round. We are particularly interested in the tit-for-tat (TFT) strategy, which is the well-known conforming strategy in theoretical and empirical studies. In both the PD game and the PGG, TFT can prevent the invasion of non-cooperative strategy if the expected number of rounds exceeds a critical value. The stability analysis of adaptive dynamics shows that conformity in general promotes the evolution of cooperation, and that a regime of cooperation can be established in an AllD population through TFT-like strategies. These results provide insight into the emergence of cooperation in social dilemma games.     

From Understanding the Development Landscape of the Canonical Fate-Switch Pair to Constructing a Dynamic Landscape for Two-Step Neural Differentiation

Recent progress in stem cell biology, notably cell fate conversion, calls for novel theoretical understanding for cell differentiation. The existing qualitative concept of Waddington’s “epigenetic landscape” has attracted particular attention because it captures subsequent fate decision points, thus manifesting the hierarchical (“tree-like”) nature of cell fate diversification. Here, we generalized a recent work and explored such a developmental landscape for a two-gene fate decision circuit by integrating the underlying probability landscapes with different parameters (corresponding to distinct developmental stages). The change of entropy production rate along the parameter changes indicates which parameter changes can represent a normal developmental process while other parameters’ change can not. The transdifferentiation paths over the landscape under certain conditions reveal the possibility of a direct and reversible phenotypic conversion. As the intensity of noise increases, we found that the landscape becomes flatter and the dominant paths more straight, implying the importance of biological noise processing mechanism in development and reprogramming. We further extended the landscape of the one-step fate decision to that for two-step decisions in central nervous system (CNS) differentiation. A minimal network and dynamic model for CNS differentiation was firstly constructed where two three-gene motifs are coupled. We then implemented the SDEs (Stochastic Differentiation Equations) simulation for the validity of the network and model. By integrating the two landscapes for the two switch gene pairs, we constructed the two-step development landscape for CNS differentiation. Our work provides new insights into cellular differentiation and important clues for better reprogramming strategies.