Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Projected poleward shift of king penguins' (Aptenodytes patagonicus) foraging range at the Crozet Islands, southern Indian Ocean

Seabird populations of the Southern Ocean have been responding to climate change for the last three decades and demographic models suggest that projected warming will cause dramatic population changes over the next century. Shift in species distribution is likely to be one of the major possible adaptations to changing environmental conditions. Habitat models based on a unique long-term tracking dataset of king penguin (Aptenodytes patagonicus) breeding on the Crozet Islands (southern Indian Ocean) revealed that despite a significant influence of primary productivity and mesoscale activity, sea surface temperature consistently drove penguins' foraging distribution. According to climate models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the projected warming of surface waters would lead to a gradual southward shift of the more profitable foraging zones, ranging from 25 km per decade for the B1 IPCC scenario to 40 km per decade for the A1B and A2 scenarios. As a consequence, distances travelled by incubating and brooding birds to reach optimal foraging zones associated with the polar front would double by 2100. Such a shift is far beyond the usual foraging range of king penguins breeding and would negatively affect the Crozet population on the long term, unless penguins develop alternative foraging strategies.     

Life history buffering in Antarctic mammals and birds against changing patterns of climate and environmental variation

The consequences of warming for Antarctic long‐lived organisms depend on their ability to survive changing patterns of climate and environmental variation. Among birds and mammals of different Antarctic regions, including emperor penguins, snow petrels, southern fulmars, Antarctic fur seals and Weddell seals, we found strong support for selection of life history traits that reduce interannual variation in fitness. These species maximize fitness by keeping a low interannual variance in the survival of adults and in their propensity to breed annually, which are the vital rates that influence most the variability in population growth rate (λ). All these species have been able to buffer these rates against the effects of recent climate‐driven habitat changes except for Antarctic fur seals, in the Southwest Atlantic. In this region of the Southern Ocean, the rapid increase in ecosystem fluctuation, associated with increasing climate variability observed since 1990, has limited and rendered less predictable the main fur seal food supply, Antarctic krill. This has increased the fitness costs of breeding for females, causing significant short‐term changes in population structure through mortality and low breeding output. Changes occur now with a frequency higher than the mean female fur seal generation time, and therefore are likely to limit their adaptive response. Fur seals are more likely to rely on phenotypic plasticity to cope with short‐term changes in order to maximize individual fitness. With more frequent extreme climatic events driving more frequent ecosystem fluctuation, the repercussions for life histories in many Antarctic birds and mammals are likely to increase, particularly at regional scales. In species with less flexible life histories that are more constrained by fluctuation in their critical habitats, like sea‐ice, this may cause demographic changes, population compensation and changes in distribution, as already observed in penguin species living in the Antarctic Peninsula and adjacent islands.     

Penguins as oceanographers unravel hidden mechanisms of marine productivity

A recent concept for investigating marine ecosystems is to employ diving predators as cost‐effective, autonomous samplers of environmental parameters (such as sea‐temperature). Using king penguins during their foraging trips at sea, we obtained an unprecedented high resolution temperature map at depth off the Kerguelen Islands, Southern Ocean, a poorly sampled but productive area. We found clear evidence of a previously unknown subsurface tongue of cold water, flowing along the eastern shelf break. These new results provide a better understanding of regional water circulation and help explain the high primary productivity above the Kerguelen Plateau.     

Integrated population modeling reveals the impact of climate on the survival of juvenile emperor penguins

Early‐life demographic traits are poorly known, impeding our understanding of population processes and sensitivity to climate change. Survival of immature individuals is a critical component of population dynamics and recruitment in particular. However, obtaining reliable estimates of juvenile survival (i.e., from independence to first year) remains challenging, as immatures are often difficult to observe and to monitor individually in the field. This is particularly acute for seabirds, in which juveniles stay at sea and remain undetectable for several years. In this work, we developed a Bayesian integrated population model to estimate the juvenile survival of emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri), and other demographic parameters including adult survival and fecundity of the species. Using this statistical method, we simultaneously analyzed capture–recapture data of adults, the annual number of breeding females, and the number of fledglings of emperor penguins collected at Dumont d'Urville, Antarctica, for the period 1971–1998. We also assessed how climate covariates known to affect the species foraging habitats and prey [southern annular mode (SAM), sea ice concentration (SIC)] affect juvenile survival. Our analyses revealed that there was a strong evidence for the positive effect of SAM during the rearing period (SAMR) on juvenile survival. Our findings suggest that this large‐scale climate index affects juvenile emperor penguins body condition and survival through its influence on wind patterns, fast ice extent, and distance to open water. Estimating the influence of environmental covariates on juvenile survival is of major importance to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on the population dynamics of emperor penguins and seabirds in general and to make robust predictions on the impact of climate change on marine predators.     

Long-term population trends in seven Antarctic seabirds at Pointe Géologie (Terre Adélie) Human impact compared with environmental change

Antarctic seabird populations have been much studied over the last decades as bioindicators of the nature of variability in the Southern Ocean marine ecosystem, and most attention has been focused on the role of food supply and the extent of sea ice. In addition, the rapid spread of tourism and the activities of researchers since the early 1960s have raised questions related to their real and potential impact on bird populations. Our data sets start in 1952 for several species of Antarctic seabirds and this study documents the trends over a 14-year period (1985–1999) in seven species breeding on Pointe Géologie archipelago (Terre Adélie, Antarctica). This is the first study where the direct impact of destruction of breeding sites (for building of an airstrip) is examined and where such long-term populations trends have been assessed in such a number of Antarctic species at one site. Trends from 1985 show that for the whole archipelago and when excluding islands destroyed, Adélie penguins and south polar skuas were the only species to show a significant increase (>3.5% annual change). The others species showed opposite trends, three increasing slightly (southern fulmars +0.4%, cape petrels +2.3%, snow petrels +0.9%) and two decreasing (emperor penguin −0.9%, southern giant petrel −3.9%). Three species particularly affected by the destruction of their breeding habitat (Adélie penguin, cape petrel, snow petrel) showed the capability to restore their populations. The availability of food and nesting sites is discussed in relation to environmental change. Species feeding on krill (Adélie penguins and cape petrels) increased more than other species; however, decrease of ice cover can increase availability of nesting sites. The importance of long-term studies is shown when assessing the role of human activities in Antarctica compared to larger-scale changes. Accepted: 18 September 2000     

Evolutionary and ecological aspects of some Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguin distributions

Penguins probably originated in the core of Gondwanaland when South America, Africa, and Antarctica were just beginning to separate. As the continents drifted apart, the division filled with what became the southern ocean. One of the remaining land masses moved south and was caught at the pole by the Earth's rotation. It became incrusted with ice and is now known as East Antarctica. Linking it to South America was a series of submerged mountain ranges that formed a necklace of islands. The northern portion of the necklace, called the Scotia Arc, is now the "fertile crescent" of the Southern Ocean. The greatest numbers and biomass of penguins are found here as well as that of krill, the primary prey species of most penguins, and many other marine predators. Today penguins are found throughout the sub-Antarctic islands and around the entire Antarctic continent. Using satellite transmitters and time-depth recorders, while taking advantage of the parental dedication of breeding birds, numerous investigators have described foraging habits of several species of penguins. The information obtained is labor intensive and costly so that studies are restricted to certain species, areas and seasons. Here I review the patterns evident among six of the most abundant and completely studied of the penguins. The variation in behavior is considerable from those species that seldom dive deeper than 20 m in search of prey to those that will dive to depths >500 m to catch mesopelagic fish and squid. Foraging trips from breeding colonies vary among species and with the season. Often the birds travel no more than 30 km and at other times the trips may exceed 600 km. Sub-Antarctic species often reach more productive waters near or within the Antarctic Polar Front zone, where the mixing of Antarctic and sub-Antarctic waters provide rich resources for their prey. Antarctic species usually remain close to shore, along the continental slope, or near the sea ice edge. Less is known about penguins during the pelagic phase between breeding cycles. What we do know is surprising in regard to their dispersal, which ranges from hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the breeding colonies.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Detecting glacial refugia in the Southern Ocean

Throughout the Quaternary, the continental-based Antarctic ice sheets expanded and contracted repeatedly. Evidence suggests that during glacial maxima, grounded ice eliminated most benthic (bottom-dwelling) fauna across the Antarctic continental shelf. However, paleontological and molecular evidence indicates most extant Antarctica benthic taxa have persisted in situ throughout the Quaternary. Where and how the Antarctic benthic fauna survived throughout repeated glacial maxima remain mostly hypothesised. If understood, this would provide valuable insights into the ecology and evolution of Southern Ocean biota over geological timescales. Here we synthesised and appraised recent studies and presented an approach to demonstrate how genetic data can be effective in identifying where and how Antarctic benthic fauna survived glacial periods. We first examined the geological and ecological evidence for how glacial periods influenced past species demography in order to provide testable frameworks for future studies. We outlined past ice-free areas from Antarctic ice sheet reconstructions that could serve as glacial refugia and discussed how benthic fauna with pelagic or non-pelagic dispersal strategies moved into and out of glacial refugia. We also reviewed current molecular studies and collated proposed locations of Southern Ocean glacial refugia on the continental shelf around Antarctica, in the deep sea, and around sub-Antarctic islands. Interestingly, the proposed glacial refugia based on molecular data generally do not correspond to the ice-free areas identified by Antarctic ice sheet reconstructions. The potential biases in sampling and in the choice of molecular markers in current literature are discussed, along with the future directions for employing testable frameworks and genomic methods in Southern Ocean molecular studies. Continued data syntheses will elucidate greater understanding of where and how Southern Ocean benthic fauna persisted throughout glacial periods and provide insights into their resilience against climate changes in the future.     

Impact of small-scale environmental perturbations on local marine food resources: a case study of a predator,the little penguin

Although the impact of environmental changes on the demographic parameters of top predators is well established, the mechanisms by which populations are affected remain poorly understood. Here, we show that a reduction in the thermal stratification of coastal water masses between 2005 and 2006 was associated with reduced foraging and breeding success of little penguins Eudyptula minor, major bio-indicators of the Bass Strait ecosystem in southern Australia. The foraging patterns of the penguins suggest that their prey disperse widely in poorly stratified waters, leading to reduced foraging efficiency and poor breeding success. Mixed water regimes resulting from storms are currently unusual during the breeding period of these birds, but are expected to become more frequent due to climate change.     

Multidimensional stable isotope analysis illuminates resource partitioning in a sub‐Antarctic island bird community

A central theme in community ecology is understanding how similar species co‐exist and how their interactions may evolve in the context of climate change. Most studies of resource partitioning among central place foragers, particularly birds, focus on the offspring‐rearing period, when they are accessible, but breeding success may be determined earlier and little is known about how such species partition resources at the onset of breeding. We used a non‐invasive approach to evaluate resource partitioning in co‐existing females at a sub‐Antarctic island during their pre‐laying periods. Three hypotheses were tested using carbon, nitrogen and oxygen stable isotope ratios measured in shells and membranes of hatched eggs as ecological tracers: 1) resource partitioning by geographic location and trophic level will exist among the 12 bird species and will be enhanced within taxonomic groups; 2) given the absence of strong oxygen gradients in the Southern Ocean we will not detect spatial structuring based on oxygen isotopes, but differences will exist between resident and oceanic species as the former may use meteoric water; 3) capital and income breeder strategies can be differentiated using stable isotopes of egg remains. Two and three dimensional isotopic data showed resource partitioning among species. As predicted, segregation was evident within the four main taxonomic groups: penguins, albatrosses, burrowing petrels and giant petrels. Unexpectedly, oxygen isotopes revealed widespread use of meteoric water among a suite of sub‐Antarctic birds. Stable isotopes allowed us to identify females of most species as income breeders at the onset of breeding, with the exception of the females of the two crested penguin exhibiting a mix of income and capital resources use. Multidimensional isotopic analyses revealed that resource partitioning exists at multiple stages of the annual cycle in ways likely to be important under global change, exhibiting wide potential for ecosystem analysis.     

Decadal changes in habitat characteristics influence population trajectories of southern elephant seals

Understanding divergent biological responses to climate change is important for predicting ecosystem level consequences. We use species habitat models to predict the winter foraging habitats of female southern elephant seals and investigate how changes in environmental variables within these habitats may be related to observed decreases in the Macquarie Island population. There were three main groups of seals that specialized in different ocean realms (the sub‐Antarctic, the Ross Sea and the Victoria Land Coast). The physical and climate attributes (e.g. wind strength, sea surface height, ocean current strength) varied amongst the realms and also displayed different temporal trends over the last two to four decades. Most notably, sea ice extent increased on average in the Victoria Land realm while it decreased overall in the Ross Sea realm. Using a species distribution model relating mean residence times (time spent in each 50 × 50 km grid cell) to 9 climate and physical co‐variates, we developed spatial predictions of residence time to identify the core regions used by the seals across the Southern Ocean from 120°E to 120°W. Population size at Macquarie Island was negatively correlated with ice concentration within the core habitat of seals using the Victoria Land Coast and the Ross Sea. Sea ice extent and concentration is predicted to continue to change in the Southern Ocean, having unknown consequences for the biota of the region. The proportion of Macquarie Island females (40%) utilizing the relatively stable sub‐Antarctic region, may buffer this population against longer‐term regional changes in habitat quality, but the Macquarie Island population has persistently decreased (?1.45% per annum) over seven decades indicating that environmental changes in the Antarctic are acting on the remaining 60% of the population to impose a long‐term population decline in a top Southern Ocean predator.     

Global warming and arctic terns: Estimating climate change impacts on the world's longest migration

Climate change is one of the top three global threats to seabirds, particularly species that visit polar regions. Arctic terns migrate between both polar regions annually and rely on productive marine areas to forage, on sea ice for rest and foraging, and prevailing winds during flight. Here, we report 21st-century trends in environmental variables affecting arctic terns at key locations along their Atlantic/Indian Ocean migratory flyway during the non-breeding seasons, identified through tracking data. End-of-century climate change projections were derived from Earth System Models and multi-model means calculated in two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: ‘middle-of-the-road’ and ‘fossil-fuelled development’ scenarios. Declines in North Atlantic primary production emerge as a major impact to arctic terns likely to affect their foraging during the 21st century under a ‘fossil-fuelled development’ scenario. Minimal changes are, however, projected at three other key regions visited by arctic terns (Benguela Upwelling, Subantarctic Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean). Southern Ocean sea ice extent is likely to decline, but the magnitude of change and potential impacts on tern survival are uncertain. Small changes (<1 m s⁻¹) in winds are projected in both scenarios, but with minimal likely impacts on migration routes and duration. However, Southern Ocean westerlies are likely to strengthen and contract closer to the continent, which may require arctic terns to shift routes or flight strategies. Overall, we find minor effects of climate change on the migration of arctic terns, with the exception of poorer foraging in the North Atlantic. However, given that arctic terns travel over huge spatial scales and live for decades, they integrate minor changes in conditions along their migration routes such that the sum effect may be greater than the parts. Meeting carbon emission targets is vital to slow these end-of-century climatic changes and minimise extinction risk for a suite of polar species.     

Signals from the south; humpback whales carry messages of Antarctic sea‐ice ecosystem variability

Southern hemisphere humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) rely on summer prey abundance of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) to fuel one of the longest‐known mammalian migrations on the planet. It is hypothesized that this species, already adapted to endure metabolic extremes, will be one of the first Antarctic consumers to show measurable physiological change in response to fluctuating prey availability in a changing climate; and as such, a powerful sentinel candidate for the Antarctic sea‐ice ecosystem. Here, we targeted the sentinel parameters of humpback whale adiposity and diet, using novel, as well as established, chemical and biochemical markers, and assembled a time trend spanning 8 years. We show the synchronous, inter‐annual oscillation of two measures of humpback whale adiposity with Southern Ocean environmental variables and climate indices. Furthermore, bulk stable isotope signatures provide clear indication of dietary compensation strategies, or a lower trophic level isotopic change, following years indicated as leaner years for the whales. The observed synchronicity of humpback whale adiposity and dietary markers, with climate patterns in the Southern Ocean, lends strength to the role of humpback whales as powerful Antarctic sea‐ice ecosystem sentinels. The work carries significant potential to reform current ecosystem surveillance in the Antarctic region.     

Species‐specific foraging strategies and segregation mechanisms of sympatric Antarctic fulmarine petrels throughout the annual cycle

Determining the year‐round distribution and behaviour of birds is necessary for a better understanding of their ecology and foraging strategies. Petrels form an important component of the high‐latitude seabird assemblages in terms of species and individuals. The distribution and foraging ecology of three sympatric fulmarine petrels (Southern Fulmar Fulmarus glacialoides, Cape Petrel Daption capense and Snow Petrel Pagodroma nivea) were studied at Adélie Land, East Antarctica, by combining information from miniaturized saltwater immersion geolocators and stable isotopes from feathers. During the breeding season at a large spatial scale (c. 200 km), the three species overlapped in their foraging areas located in the vicinity of the colonies but were segregated by their diet and trophic level, as indicated by the different chick δ¹⁵N values that increased in the order Cape Petrel < Southern Fulmar < Snow Petrel. During the non‐breeding season, the three fulmarines showed species‐specific migration strategies along a wide latitudinal gradient. Snow Petrels largely remained in ice‐associated Antarctic waters, Southern Fulmars targeted primarily the sub‐Antarctic zone and Cape Petrels migrated further north. Overall, birds spent less time in flight during the non‐breeding period than during the breeding season, with the highest percentage of time spent sitting on the water occurring during the breeding season and at the beginning of the non‐breeding period before migration. This activity pattern, together with the δ¹³C values of most feathers, strongly suggests that moult of the three fulmarine petrels occurred at that time in the very productive high Antarctic waters, where birds fed on a combination of crustaceans and fish. The study highlights different segregating mechanisms that allow the coexistence of closely related species, specifically, prey partitioning during the breeding season and spatial segregation at sea during the non‐breeding season.     

Adélie penguin survival: age structure,temporal variability and environmental influences

The driving factors of survival, a key demographic process, have been particularly challenging to study, especially for winter migratory species such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). While winter environmental conditions clearly influence Antarctic seabird survival, it has been unclear to which environmental features they are most likely to respond. Here, we examine the influence of environmental fluctuations, broad climatic conditions and the success of the breeding season prior to winter on annual survival of an Adélie penguin population using mark–recapture models based on penguin tag and resight data over a 16-year period. This analysis required an extension to the basic Cormack–Jolly–Seber model by incorporating age structure in recapture and survival sub-models. By including model covariates, we show that survival of older penguins is primarily related to the amount and concentration of ice present in their winter foraging grounds. In contrast, fledgling and yearling survival depended on other factors in addition to the physical marine environment and outcomes of the previous breeding season, but we were unable to determine what these were. The relationship between sea-ice and survival differed with penguin age: extensive ice during the return journey to breeding colonies was detrimental to survival for the younger penguins, whereas either too little or too much ice (between 15 and 80% cover) in the winter foraging grounds was detrimental for adults. Our results demonstrate that predictions of Adélie penguin survival can be improved by taking into account penguin age, prior breeding conditions and environmental features.     

Environmental forcing and Southern Ocean marine predator populations: effects of climate change and variability

The Southern Ocean is a major component within the global ocean and climate system and potentially the location where the most rapid climate change is most likely to happen, particularly in the high-latitude polar regions. In these regions, even small temperature changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Climate change is likely to be regional and may be expressed in various ways, including alterations to climate and weather patterns across a variety of time-scales that include changes to the long interdecadal background signals such as the development of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Oscillating climate signals such as ENSO potentially provide a unique opportunity to explore how biological communities respond to change. This approach is based on the premise that biological responses to shorter-term sub-decadal climate variability signals are potentially the best predictor of biological responses over longer time-scales. Around the Southern Ocean, marine predator populations show periodicity in breeding performance and productivity, with relationships with the environment driven by physical forcing from the ENSO region in the Pacific. Wherever examined, these relationships are congruent with mid-trophic-level processes that are also correlated with environmental variability. The short-term changes to ecosystem structure and function observed during ENSO events herald potential long-term changes that may ensue following regional climate change. For example, in the South Atlantic, failure of Antarctic krill recruitment will inevitably foreshadow recruitment failures in a range of higher trophic-level marine predators. Where predator species are not able to accommodate by switching to other prey species, population-level changes will follow. The Southern Ocean, though oceanographically interconnected, is not a single ecosystem and different areas are dominated by different food webs. Where species occupy different positions in different regional food webs, there is the potential to make predictions about future change scenarios.     

Speciation chronology of rockhopper penguins inferred from molecular, geological and palaeoceanographic data

Aim The Southern Ocean is split into several biogeographical provinces between convergence zones that separate watermasses of different temperatures. Recent molecular phylogenies have uncovered a strong phylogeographic structure among rockhopper penguin populations, Eudyptes chrysocome sensu lato, from different biogeographical provinces. These studies suggested a reclassification as three species in two major clades, corresponding, respectively, to warm, subtropical and cold sub‐Antarctic watermasses rather than to geographic proximity. Such a phylogeographic pattern, also observed in plants, invertebrates and fishes of the Southern Ocean, suggests that past changes in the positions of watermasses may have affected the evolutionary history of penguins. We calculated divergence times among various rockhopper penguin clades and calibrated these data with palaeomagmatic and palaeoceanographic events to generate a speciation chronology in rockhopper penguins. Location Southern Ocean. Methods Divergence times between populations were calculated using five distinct mitochondrial DNA loci, and assuming a molecular clock model as implemented in mdiv . The molecular evolution rate of rockhopper penguins was calibrated using the radiochronological age of St Paul Island and Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean. Separations within other clades were correlated with palaeoceanographic data using this calibrated rate. Results The split between the Atlantic and Indian populations of rockhopper penguins was dated as 0.25 Ma, using the date of emergence of St Paul and Amsterdam islands, and the divergence between sub‐Antarctic and subtropical rockhopper penguins was dated as c. 0.9 Ma (i.e. during the mid‐Pleistocene transition, a major change in the Earth’s climate cycles). Main conclusions The mid‐Pleistocene transition is known to have caused a major southward shift in watermasses in the Southern Ocean, thus changing the environment around the northernmost rockhopper penguin breeding sites. This ecological isolation of northernmost populations may have caused vicariant speciation, splitting the species into two major clades. After the emergence of St Paul and Amsterdam islands in the subtropical Indian Ocean 0.25 Ma, these islands were colonized by penguins from the subtropical Atlantic, 6000 km away, rather than by penguins from the sub‐Antarctic Indian Ocean, 5000 km closer.     

Ecological drivers of change at South Georgia: the krill surplus,or climate variability

Macaroni penguins Eudyptes chrysolophus are thought to be one of the most important mesopredators in the Southern Ocean having a greater impact on prey availability and abundance than any other seabird species. Their population centre has long been held to be South Georgia where populations were thought to comprise many million animals. Here we report the results of a recent census of the macaroni population at South Georgia undertaken using aerial survey methods. We report dramatic declines in numbers (～1.0 million breeding pairs) compared to numbers observed in the late 1970s (～5.4 million pairs), but show that these reductions have occurred principally at sites where numbers had previously been very large. During the breeding season, the main foraging grounds of birds from these sites overlap with the foraging grounds of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella, a major competitor for their principal prey, Antarctic krill Euphausia superba. We suggest that the redistribution of the macaroni penguin population at South Georgia reflects the recent recovery of fur seal populations and thus the ongoing consequences of human intervention at South Georgia, a process which started more than 2 centuries previously. The implied resource competition and the observed population changes may also be exacerbated by recent reductions in Antarctic krill abundance which have been linked with reductions in seasonal sea ice following recent, rapid, regional warming in the Antarctic; however, the recovery of fur seal populations, and the ongoing recovery of krill‐eating whale populations argues that tropho‐dynamic interactions may be sufficient to explain the observed changes.     

Non-consumptive factors affecting foraging patterns in Antarctic penguins: a review and synthesis

Recent research has clearly shown that the fear of predation, i.e. aversion to taking risks, among mesopredators or grazers, and not merely flight from an apex predator to avoid predation, is an important aspect of ecosystem structuring. In only a few, though well-documented cases, however, has this been considered in the marine environment. Herein, we review studies that have quantified behavioral responses of Adélie penguins Pygoscelis adeliae and emperor penguins Aptenodytes forsteri to the direct presence of predators, and question why the penguins avoid entering or exiting the water at night. We also show, through literature review and new analyses of Adélie penguin diving data, that Antarctic penguins are capable of successful prey capture in the dark (defined here as <3.4 lux). Finally, we summarize extensive data on seasonal migration relative to darkness and prey availability. On the basis of our findings, we propose that penguins’ avoidance of foraging at night is due to fear of predation, and not to an inability to operate effectively in darkness. We further propose that, at polar latitudes where darkness is more a seasonal than a year-round, daily feature, this “risk aversion” affects migratory movements in both species, consistent with the “trade-off” hypothesis seen in other marine vertebrates weighing foraging success against predation risk in their choice of foraging habitat. Such non-consumptive, behavioral aspects of species interactions have yet to be considered as important in Southern Ocean food webs, but may help to explain enigmatic movement patterns and choice of foraging grounds in these penguin species.