Patch occupancy, population density and dynamics in a fragmented red squirrel Sciurusvulgaris population

We studied population dynamics of red squirrels in a group of small forest fragments, that cover only 6.5% of the total study area (4664 ha) and where distances to the nearest source population were up to 2.2 km. We tested effects of patch size, quality and isolation and supplementary feeding on patch occupation during 1995–99. Larger patches and patches with supplementary feeding had a higher probability of being occupied. No patch <3.5 ha was ever occupied. No effects of isolation were found, suggesting that the forest habitat in the study area is not sufficiently fragmented to influence red squirrel distribution across patches. For medium sized patches (3.7–21 ha), that were occupied some years, there was an increase in patch occupation over the years, even though overall population size tended to decrease. These patches had a high turnover, especially of males. Patches in which the squirrel population went extinct were recolonized within a year. For patches that were at least some years occupied, squirrel density depended on patch quality only. No effects of patch size, isolation and winter temperature on population density were found. These data suggest that in our study area habitat fragmentation has no effect on local squirrel density and that the random sample hypothesis explains the distribution pattern across patches.     

Genetic variability, population size and isolation of distinct populations in the freshwater fish Cottus gobio L.

Analysis of allozyme data of the European freshwater fish Cottus gobio showed marked genetic differentiation across drainage basins in northeastern Bavaria, which points to the existence of at least two cryptic taxa. Genetic variability within populations differed significantly between these two taxa, which could be due to historical (bottlenecks) or ecological reasons (population size). To distinguish between these two hypotheses we sampled 12 distinct populations from Rhine, Elbe and Danube drainages. Using allozyme data we examined the influence of population size and isolation on genetic variability within populations. We used spatial extent of populations (patch size) as a measure for population size. To estimate isolation we calculated a compound measure which took into account patch size and distance to all neighbouring populations. Both patch size and isolation were highly correlated with genetic variability, explaining ≈95% of the variance of genetic variability within populations. Furthermore, analysis of covariance suggests that the difference in genetic variability between taxa may be explained by differences in population size.     

Forest fragmentation and plant reproductive success: a case study in four perennial herbs

We assessed the effects of habitat fragmentation on reproductive success in natural populations of four forest herbs with differing life-history traits and whose distribution patterns appeared to be negatively affected by decreased habitat size and/or increased isolation: Carex sylvatica, Galium odoratum, Sanicula europaea and Veronica montana. Our aims were to test (1) whether habitat size and isolation are positively correlated with population size and isolation, respectively, (2) whether plant reproductive success, a major component of plant fitness, is reduced in small and/or isolated populations when also accounting for differences in habitat quality (edaphic conditions, light intensity) and the effects of plant size, and (3) whether species with different life histories are affected differently. There were significant positive relationships between habitat and population size and between habitat and population isolation in some, but not all of the species. We mostly found no negative effects of small population size or isolation on reproduction. However, reproductive success was reduced in small populations of Sanicula, and this effect was independent of differences in plant size and environmental conditions. The reduced fecundity in small populations may be a consequence of the Allee-effect, a possible mechanism being pollen limitation. Furthermore, the proportion of flowering ramets was reduced in small and isolated populations of Galium, which may have been caused by changes in population structure. Lastly, we found some evidence for largely outcrossing, non-clonal species to be more sensitive to reductions in population size, at least in terms of their reproductive success.     

Relative importance of resource quantity, isolation and habitat quality for landscape distribution of a monophagous butterfly

Fragmentation of food resources is a major cause of species extinction. We tested the effects of habitat area, isolation and quality for the occurrence and population density of the endangered butterfly Polyommatus coridon . Polyommatus coridon larvae are monophagous on the plant Hippocrepis comosa, and both species are specialised on calcareous grassland, which is an endangered and highly fragmented habitat type in Germany.
In 2001 we surveyed all known calcareous grasslands (n=298) around the city of Göttingen (Germany) to map the population size of H. comosa in these habitats. Further, habitat isolation (between-patch distance: 70–7220 m) and habitat quality (cover of flowering plants, height of herb layer, percent bare ground, cover of shrub layer, wind protection, inclination) were quantified. Hippocrepis comosa occurred on only 124 fragments, which were then surveyed by 20 min transect counts for adult P. coridon in 2001 and 2002.
Occurrence and population density of P. coridon were largely determined by the population size of its larval food plant, which was correlated with grassland area. Effects of habitat isolation and habitat quality on P. coridon populations contributed only little to the explanation.
In conclusion, this monophagous habitat specialist depended on large habitats with large food plant populations to exist in viable populations. Habitat isolation and quality appear to contribute to occurrence and density patterns only in landscapes where these factors shift towards extremes, therefore general recommendations for conservation programs are difficult as they depend on regional distinctions.     

Patch Size,Functional Isolation,Visibility and Matrix Permeability Influences Neotropical Primate Occurrence within Highly Fragmented Landscapes

Forest fragmentation and habitat loss are among the major current extinction causes. Remaining fragments are mostly small, isolated and showing poor quality. Being primarily arboreal, Neotropical primates are generally sensitive to fragmentation effects. Furthermore, primates are involved in complex ecological process. Thus, landscape changes that negatively interfere with primate population dynamic affect the structure, composition, and ultimately the viability of the whole community. We evaluated if fragment size, isolation and visibility and matrix permeability are important for explaining the occurrence of three Neotropical primate species. Employing playback, we verified the presence of Callicebus nigrifrons, Callithrix aurita and Sapajus nigritus at 45 forest fragments around the municipality of Alfenas, Brazil. We classified the landscape and evaluated the metrics through predictive models of occurrence. We selected the best models through Akaike Selection Criterion. Aiming at validating our results, we applied the plausible models to another region (20 fragments at the neighboring municipality of Poço Fundo, Brazil). Twelve models were plausible, and three were validated, two for Sapajus nigritus (Area and Area+Visibility) and one for Callicebus nigrifrons (Area+Matrix). Our results reinforce the contribution of fragment size to maintain biodiversity within highly degraded habitats. At the same time, they stress the importance of including novel, biologically relevant metrics in landscape studies, such as visibility and matrix permeability, which can provide invaluable help for similar studies in the future and on conservation practices in the long run.     

Reproductive fitness,population size and genetic variation in Muscari tenuiflorum (Hyacinthaceae): The role of temporal variation

In plant populations a positive correlation between population size, genetic variation and fitness components is often found, due to increased pollen limitation or reduced genetic variation and inbreeding depression in smaller populations. However, components of fitness also depend on environmental factors which can vary strongly between years. The dry grassland species Muscari tenuiflorum experiences long term habitat isolation and small population sizes. We analyzed seed production of M. tenuiflorum in four years and its dependence on population size and genetic variation. Genetic diversity within populations was high (AFLP: H_e = 0.245; allozymes: H_e = 0.348). An analysis of molecular variance revealed considerable population differentiation (AFLP: 26%; allozyme: 17%). An overall pattern of isolation by distance was found, which, however was not present at distances below 20 km, indicating stronger effects of genetic drift. Genetic diversity was positively correlated to population size. Self pollination reduced seed set by 24%, indicating inbreeding depression. Reproductive fitness was not correlated to genetic diversity and a positive correlation with population size was present in two of four study years. The absence of a general pattern stresses the importance for multi-year studies. Overall, the results show that despite long term habitat isolation M. tenuiflorum maintains seed production in many years independent of population size. The long term persistence of populations is thus expected to depend less on intrinsic genetic or demographic properties affecting seed production but on successful plant establishment and persistence, which latter are based on conservation and protection of suitable habitats.     

Pollen dispersal patterns and population persistence in a small isolated population of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Fagus crenata</Emphasis>

The potential of long-distance pollen dispersal and the effects of small population size and population isolation on persistence of Fagus crenata populations were investigated in a small, severely isolated population (the Gofuku-ji population) and two other populations located within 7 km of this population (including 87 adult trees in total). Parentage analysis using 13 microsatellite loci showed that 94 of 100 seedlings derived from seeds collected from the Gofuku-ji population had parent pairs within this population, six had one parent within the population, and four of the six seedlings had alleles that were not detected in any of the three populations, indicating that some pollen is dispersed over distances exceeding 7 km. The estimated expected heterozygosity and effective population size were lower in the Gofuku-ji population than in previously examined large continuous populations. Therefore, levels of genetic diversity within the population may have been reduced by strong genetic drift and limitations of pollen- and seed-mediated gene flow associated with the small size and severe isolation. The contemporary mating pattern estimated at the seedling stage was biased toward outbreeding, which may be explained by possible processes: the level of inbreeding in the adult trees is increased; then, inbreeding frequently occurs but is rarely successful, while outbreeding successfully produces offspring. Additionally, high levels of significant linkage disequilibrium and higher numbers of alleles than expected under mutation–drift equilibrium from analyses of the populations’ evolutionary history suggest that the Gofuku-ji population may have experienced admixture before its severe isolation. Therefore, the persistence of the Gofuku-ji population is being adversely affected by the decrease in population size and severe isolation. Further studies of gene flow via pollen in other populations with various degrees of isolation could enhance our understanding of the effects of population isolation and long-distance pollen dispersal in F. crenata and similar species.     

Conservation genetics of the wood ant, Formica lugubris, in a fragmented landscape

Various intrinsic factors connected to the special features of sociality influence the persistence of social insect populations, including low effective population size, reduced amount of genetic variation easily leading to inbreeding depression, and spatially structured populations. In this work, we studied an isolated, small and fragmented population system of the red wood ant Formica lugubris, and evaluated the impact of social and genetic population structure on the persistence and conservation of the populations. The effective population size was large in our study population because all nests were polygynous. As a result, and despite the apparent isolation, the amount of nuclear genetic variability was similar to that in a nonisolated population system. Lack of inbreeding, as well as a high level of variability, indirectly suggests that this population does not suffer from inbreeding depression. The spatial distribution of genetic variation between local populations suggests intensive, but strongly male-biased, nuclear gene flow. Thus, the persistence of this population system does not seem to be threatened by any immediate social or genetic factor, but colonization of new habitat patches may be difficult because of restricted female dispersal.     

The effects of plant population size on the interactions between the endangered plant Scorzonera humilis, a specialised herbivore, and a phytopathogenic fungus

We studied the effects of population size on the interactions between Scorzonera humilis (Asteraceae), its specialised seed-feeding fly Heterostylodes macrurus (Anthomyidae) and its specific systemic smut fungus Ustilago scorzonerae (Ustilaginales). The number of seeds developing per plant (potential seed production) strongly increased with population size in S. humilis. However, because seed predation by the seed feeding fly H. macrurus and the negative impact of the pathogen U. scorzonerae also increased, realised seed production was not related to population size. The probability of occurrence of H. macrurus increased with the population size of its host plant and its abundance increased more than proportionally. This suggests that Allee effects reduce insect abundance in small populations of S. humilis . The probability of occurrence of the fungus U. scorzonerae also increased with plant population size. Within populations, large genets were more likely to be infected than small ones. The systemic pathogen U. scorzonerae reduces the effective population size of its host because all flowers of an infected individual are sterilised. Nevertheless, in most populations the impact of the fly on reproduction was stronger than that of the pathogen, because most genets were not infected. Both parasites were rarer than the host plant itself, supporting the trophic-level hypothesis of island biogeography. Our results suggest that habitat fragmentation may release plants from parasites and pathogens. These positive effects of isolation and small population size may mask negative effects of fragmentation on, for instance, the quantity and quality of pollination.     

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.     

Temporal trends in marital structure and isonymy in S. Paolo Albanese, Italy

In the fifteenth century, after the Turkish conquest of the Balkan area, Albanian communities migrated to Southern Italy. I investigated temporal trends in isolation from 1820 to 1982 in one of these communities, the population of S. Paolo Albanese, Basilicata, which still uses the original language and religious rites. Marital structure is characterized by a high average frequency of village endogamy (75.2%). Among the exogamous marriages there is a preference for mates from Italo-Albanian settlements, with higher values in the 1800s. The distribution of marital distances reflects the positive assortative mating by ethnic community. The mean frequency of isonymous marriages was 9.01% from 1820 to 1982. These results indicate that total inbreeding from isonymy is a reliable indicator of isolation, showing temporal trends related to changes in endogamy. Fr accounts for the greater percentage of Ft in relation to the small population size and regularly decreases with time. The breakdown of isolation, as documented by the decrease in population size, endogamy, and inbreeding, is a recent feature (since 1960).     

Environmental diel variation, parasite loads, and local population structuring of a mixed-mating mangrove fish

Genetic variation within populations depends on population size, spatial structuring, and environmental variation, but is also influenced by mating system. Mangroves are some of the most productive and threatened ecosystems on earth and harbor a large proportion of species with mixed-mating (self-fertilization and outcrossing). Understanding population structuring in mixed-mating species is critical for conserving and managing these complex ecosystems. Kryptolebias marmoratus is a unique mixed-mating vertebrate inhabiting mangrove swamps under highly variable tidal regimes and environmental conditions. We hypothesized that geographical isolation and ecological pressures influence outcrossing rates and genetic diversity, and ultimately determine the local population structuring of K. marmoratus. By comparing genetic variation at 32 microsatellites, diel fluctuations of environmental parameters, and parasite loads among four locations with different degrees of isolation, we found significant differences in genetic diversity and genotypic composition but little evidence of isolation by distance. Locations also differed in environmental diel fluctuation and parasite composition. Our results suggest that mating system, influenced by environmental instability and parasites, underpins local population structuring of K. marmoratus. More generally, we discuss how the conservation of selfing species inhabiting mangroves and other biodiversity hotspots may benefit from knowledge of mating strategies and population structuring at small spatial scales.     

Revealing the mechanisms of sexual isolation in a case of sympatric and parallel ecological divergence

Two ecotypes of a marine intertidal snail (Littorina saxatilis), living at different microhabitats and shore levels, have evolved in sympatry and in parallel across the Galician rocky shore. These ecotypes differ in many traits (including size) due to differential adaptation. They meet, mate assortatively, and partially hybridize at the mid shore where the two microhabitats overlap. The partial sexual isolation observed is claimed to be a side‐effect of the size differences between ecotypes combined with a size assortative mating found in most populations of this species. We investigated this hypothesis using three complementary experimental approaches. First, we investigated which of the different shell variables contributed most to the variation in individual sexual isolation in the field by using two new statistics developed for that purpose: (1) pair sexual isolation and (2) r_i, which is based on the Pearson correlation coefficient. We found that size is the most important trait explaining the sexual isolation and, in particular, the males appear to be the key sex contributing to sexual isolation. Second, we compared the size assortative mating between regions: exposed rocky shore populations from north‐westwern Spain (showing incomplete reproductive isolation due to size assortative mating) and protected Spanish and Swedish populations (showing size assortative mating but not reproductive isolation between ecomorphs). Most of the variation in size assortative mating between localities was significantly explained by the within‐population level of variation on size. Third, we performed a laboratory male choice experiment, which further suggested that the choice is made predominantly on the basis of size. These results confirm the mechanism proposed to explain the sexual isolation in the Galician hybrid zone and thus support this case as a putative example of parallel incipient speciation. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 94 , 513–526.     

Extremely low effective population sizes, genetic structuring and reduced genetic diversity in a threatened bumblebee species, Bombus sylvarum (Hymenoptera: Apidae)

Habitat fragmentation may severely affect survival of social insect populations as the number of nests per population, not the number of individuals, represents population size, hence they may be particularly prone to loss of genetic diversity. Erosion of genetic diversity may be particularly significant among social Hymenoptera such as bumblebees (Bombus spp.), as this group may be susceptible to diploid male production, a suggested direct cost of inbreeding. Here, for the first time, we assess genetic diversity and population structuring of a threatened bumblebee species (Bombus sylvarum) which exists in highly fragmented habitat (rather than oceanic) islands. Effective population sizes, estimated from identified sisterhoods, were very low (range 21-72) suggesting that isolated populations will be vulnerable to loss of genetic variation through drift. Evidence of significant genetic structuring between populations (theta = 0.084) was found, but evidence of a bottleneck was detected in only one population. Comparison across highly fragmented UK populations and a continental population (where this species is more widespread) revealed significant differences in allelic richness attributable to a high degree of genetic diversity in the continental population. While not directly related to population size, this is perhaps explained by the high degree of isolation between UK populations relative to continental populations. We suggest that populations now existing on isolated habitat islands were probably linked by stepping-stone populations prior to recent habitat loss.     

A separation-of-timescales approach to the coalescent in a continuous population

This article presents an analysis of a model of isolation by distance in a continuous, two-dimensional habitat. An approximate expression is derived for the distribution of coalescence times for a pair of sequences sampled from specific locations in a rectangular habitat. Results are qualitatively similar to previous analyses of isolation by distance, but account explicitly for the location of samples relative to the habitat boundaries. A separation-of-timescales approach takes advantage of the fact that the sampling locations affect only the recent coalescent behavior. When the population size is larger than the number of generations required for a lineage to cross the habitat range, the long-term genealogical process is reasonably well described by Kingman's coalescent with time rescaled by the effective population size. This long-term effective population size is affected by the local dispersal behavior as well as the geometry of the habitat. When the population size is smaller than the time required to cross the habitat, deep branches in the genealogy are longer than would be expected under the standard neutral coalescent, similar to the pattern expected for a panmictic population whose population size was larger in the past.     

Genetic diversity, population structure, effective population size and demographic history of the Finnish wolf population

The Finnish wolf population (Canis lupus) was sampled during three different periods (1996-1998, 1999-2001 and 2002-2004), and 118 individuals were genotyped with 10 microsatellite markers. Large genetic variation was found in the population despite a recent demographic bottleneck. No spatial population subdivision was found even though a significant negative relationship between genetic relatedness and geographic distance suggested isolation by distance. Very few individuals did not belong to the local wolf population as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. We used the temporal approach and several statistical methods to estimate the variance effective size of the population. All methods gave similar estimates of effective population size, approximately 40 wolves. These estimates were slightly larger than the estimated census size of breeding individuals. A Bayesian model based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations indicated strong evidence for a long-term population decline. These results suggest that the contemporary wolf population size is roughly 8% of its historical size, and that the population decline dates back to late 19th century or early 20th century. Despite an increase of over 50% in the census size of the population during the whole study period, there was only weak evidence that the effective population size during the last period was higher than during the first. This may be caused by increased inbreeding, diminished dispersal within the population, and decreased immigration to the population during the last study period.     

Estimating the Size of HIV Key Affected Populations in Chongqing,China, Using the Network Scale-Up Method

Objectives

To estimate the average social network size in the general population and the size of HIV key affected populations (KAPs) in Chongqing municipality using the network scale-up method (NSUM).

Methods

A general population survey was conducted in 2011 through a multistage random sampling method. Participants aged between 18 and 60 years were recruited. The average social network size (c) was estimated and adjusted by known population method. The size of HIV KAP in Chongqing municipality was estimated using the adjusted c value with adjustment for the transmission effect using the scaled respect factor.

Results

3,026 inhabitants of Chongqing agreed to the survey, and 2,957 (97.7%) completed the questionnaire. The adjusted c value was 310. The estimated size of KAP was 28,418(95% Confidence Interval (CI):26,636∼30,201) for female sex workers (FSW), 163,199(95%CI:156,490∼169,908) for clients of FSW, 37,959(95%CI: 34,888∼41,030) for drug users (DU), 14,975(95%CI:13,047∼16,904) for injecting drug users (IDU) and 16,767(95%CI:14,602∼18,932) for men who have sex with men (MSM). The ratio of clients to FSW was 5.74∶1, and IDU accounted for 39.5% of the DU population. The estimates suggest that FSW account for 0.37% of the female population aged 15–49 years in Chongqing, and clients of FSW and MSM represent 2.09% and 0.21% of the male population aged 15–49 years in the city, respectively.

Conclusion

NSUM provides reasonable population size estimates for FSW, their clients, DU and IDU in Chongqing. However, it is likely to underestimate the population size of MSM even after adjusting for the transmission effect.     

Extensive pollen dispersal in a bird-pollinated shrub, Calothamnus quadrifidus, in a fragmented landscape

Pollen dispersal was investigated in six populations of Calothamnus quadrifidus, a bird-pollinated shrub in the fragmented agricultural region of southern Western Australia. Paternity analysis using six microsatellite loci identified a pollen source within populations for 67% of seedlings, and the remainder were assumed to have arisen from pollen sources outside the populations. Outcrossing was variable, ranging from 5% to 82%, and long-distance pollen dispersal was observed in all populations with up to 43% of pollen sourced from outside the populations over distances of up to 5 km. This extensive pollen immigration was positively associated with population size but not isolation. Comparison of two populations of similar size but different density showed greater internal pollination and less selfing in the denser population, suggesting an influence of density on pollinator behaviour. The study revealed extensive long-distance pollen dispersal for C. quadrifidus within this fragmented agricultural landscape and highlighted the interaction between reserve populations and isolated road verge remnants in maintaining genetic connectivity at the landscape scale.     

Mating patterns and contemporary gene flow by pollen in a large continuous and a small isolated population of the scattered forest tree Sorbus torminalis

The influence of population size and spatial isolation on contemporary gene flow by pollen and mating patterns in temperate forest trees are not well documented, although they are crucial factors in the life history of plant species. We analysed a small, isolated population and a large, continuous population of the insect-pollinated tree species Sorbus torminalis in two consecutive years. The species recently experienced increased habitat fragmentation due to altered forest management leading to forests with closed canopies. We estimated individual plant size, percentage of flowering trees, intensity of flowering, degree of fruiting and seed set per fruit, and we determined mating patterns, pollen flow distances and external gene flow in a genetic paternity analysis based on microsatellite markers. We found clear effects of small population size and spatial isolation in S. torminalis. Compared with the large, continuous population, the small and isolated population harboured a lower percentage of flowering trees, showed less intense flowering, lower fruiting, less developed seeds per fruit, increased selfing and received less immigrant pollen. However, the negative inbreeding coefficients (F(IS)) of offspring indicated that this did not result in inbred seed at the population level. We also show that flowering, fruiting and pollen flow patterns varied among years, the latter being affected by the size of individuals. Though our study was unreplicated at the factor level (i.e. isolated vs non-isolated populations), it shows that small and spatially isolated populations of S. torminalis may also be genetically isolated, but that their progeny is not necessarily more inbred.     

The tails of two geckos tell the story of dispersal in a fragmented landscape

The fragmentation of habitat is a major cause of biodiversity loss. However, while numerous studies have suggested that reducing the size of populations and isolating them on fragments leads ultimately to the extinction of a species (small isolated populations are extinction prone), the evidence has been rather conjectural. This is because dispersal is so difficult to measure and isolation difficult to confirm. In past studies, evidence that populations become small and isolated on fragments, leading to declines, has relied on spatial patterns of distribution and abundance. Thus, a species not trapped in the matrix in which fragments are embedded might be assumed isolated on fragments, and if low in abundance on fragments compared to continuous habitat is assumed to have declined on fragments due to this isolation. However, without accurately measuring the degree of isolation, it is difficult to distinguish the role of isolation from other important causes of population decline that are correlated with fragment and population size, such as habitat degradation. Developments in molecular techniques and statistical methods now make it possible to measure isolation. Refreshingly, in this issue Hoehn et al. analyse microsatellite DNA with a suite of statistical methods to show convincingly that a declining species of gecko suffers from greater isolation on habitat fragments than a contrasting gecko that is able to disperse between fragments and hence persist in the severely fragmented wheatbelt of Western Australia.