Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community composition is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt--to plan and implement effective responses to change--a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.     

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.     

Forage plants of an Arctic‐nesting herbivore show larger warming response in breeding than wintering grounds,potentially disrupting migration phenology

During spring migration, herbivorous waterfowl breeding in the Arctic depend on peaks in the supply of nitrogen‐rich forage plants, following a “green wave” of grass growth along their flyway to fuel migration and reproduction. The effects of climate warming on forage plant growth are expected to be larger at the Arctic breeding grounds than in temperate wintering grounds, potentially disrupting this green wave and causing waterfowl to mistime their arrival on the breeding grounds. We studied the potential effect of climate warming on timing of food peaks along the migratory flyway of the Russian population of barnacle geese using a warming experiment with open‐top chambers. We measured the effect of 1.0–1.7°C experimental warming on forage plant biomass and nitrogen concentration at three sites along the migratory flyway (temperate wintering site, temperate spring stopover site, and Arctic breeding site) during 2 months for two consecutive years. We found that experimental warming increased biomass accumulation and sped up the decline in nitrogen concentration of forage plants at the Arctic breeding site but not at temperate wintering and stop‐over sites. Increasing spring temperatures in the Arctic will thus shorten the food peak of nitrogen‐rich forage at the breeding grounds. Our results further suggest an advance of the local food peak in the Arctic under 1–2°C climate warming, which will likely cause migrating geese to mistime their arrival at the breeding grounds, particularly considering the Arctic warms faster than the temperate regions. The combination of a shorter food peak and mistimed arrival is likely to decrease goose reproductive success under climate warming by reducing growth and survival of goslings after hatching.     

Occurrence and reproduction of tropical fishes in ocean warming hotspots of Japanese temperate reefs

Reproduction of tropical species beyond their geographic range associated with ocean warming is regarded as the key indicator of a range shift. However, the lack of historical breeding records poses challenges for detecting distinct range shifts of tropical fishes. To obtain baseline data of the current status of the occurrence and breeding activity of tropical pomacentrid and apogonid fishes in ocean warming hotspots of temperate reefs (Kochi and Wakayama, 33°N) of Japan, we conducted a two-year underwater visual survey and synthesized those data with recently published information. By combining data from the present as well as past studies, the results confirmed the occurrence of 52 pomacentrid and 34 apogonid species, whereas breeding activity was confirmed for 19 and 16 species, respectively. Species richness and abundance of recruitment periphery and breeding active species were high at the warmer site adjacent to the Kuroshio Current. Most observed species were found beyond their known geographic range. Some species showing active breeding were widespread tropical fishes (e.g., Amphiprion clarkii, Pomacentrus coelestis and Apogon notatus) and probably have established breeding populations irrespective of recent global warming. The winter sea water temperature around the study sites will continue to rise, increasing by >2 °C by the end of the century; therefore, our results are highly relevant and represent the first step to elucidate the potential range extension of tropical fishes into temperate reefs with climate change.     

Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

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Warming winter effects,fat store accumulation and timing of spring departure of Greenland White-fronted Geese <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anser albifrons flavirostris</Emphasis> from their winter quarters

Migratory geese accumulate energy and nutrient stores in winter to fly to refuelling spring staging areas before onward migration to breeding areas. Mean ground temperatures at two important Greenland White-fronted Geese wintering sites rose in winter and spring by 1.0–1.3°C during 1973–2007. Greenland White-fronted Geese departed the Wexford winter quarters on 3rd April 2007 for Icelandic spring staging areas, the earliest on record, representing a mean advancement of 15 days since 1973, mirrored amongst mean dates of departure amongst Scottish wintering birds that have advanced by 12 days during 1973–2007. Icelandic temperatures at critical midway staging areas en route to Greenland showed no significant change since 1973, suggesting that it is warming on the winter quarters that enable geese to depart earlier, rather than elevated temperatures at ultimate spring staging areas. However, Wexford departure date did not correlate with spring temperature. Data presented here show that Greenland White-fronted Geese have accumulated threshold body stores progressively earlier in spring migration, especially during 1995–2007. Although this did not correlate with ambient temperature, the mean degree of accumulated fat stored by 1st April in each year was a statistically significant predictor of departure date for the wintering population at Wexford. These data support the hypothesis that it is intrinsic factors (i.e. improvements in internal body state resulting from better feeding conditions) that has permitted progressively earlier departure of these geese from Wexford on spring migration, rather than amelioration of spring conditions in Iceland or solely the result of warming of the winter quarters.     

Photoperiodic response may facilitate adaptation to climatic change in long-distance migratory birds

Recent climatic change is causing spring events in northern temperate regions to occur earlier in the year. As a result, migratory birds returning from tropical wintering sites may arrive too late to take full advantage of the food resources on their breeding grounds. Under these conditions, selection will favour earlier spring arrival that could be achieved by overwintering closer to the breeding grounds. However, it is unknown how daylength conditions at higher latitudes will affect the timing of life cycle stages. Here, we show in three species of Palaearctic-African migratory songbirds that a shortening of migration distance induces an advancement of springtime activities. Birds exposed to daylengths simulating migration to and wintering in southern Europe considerably advanced their spring migratory activity and testicular development. This response to the novel photoperiodic environment will enable birds wintering further north to advance spring arrival and to start breeding earlier. Thus, phenotypic flexibility in response to the photoperiod may reinforce selection for shorter migration distance if spring temperatures continue to rise.     

Variation in songbird migratory behavior offers clues about adaptability to environmental change

For seasonally migrating birds, aspects of migratory behavior, such as the use of temperate versus tropical wintering areas, may influence their ability to respond to environmental change. Here, we infer potential flexibility in songbird migration from variation in two alternative stopover behaviors. Hierarchical Bayesian mark–recapture modeling was used to quantify stopover decisions over 19 years for four temperate and four tropical migratory species at a stopover site in southern Canada. Short-distance temperate migrants exhibited higher variability in behavior and greater responses to local weather than longer-distance tropical migrants, as measured by transience (the proportion of birds stopping <24 h, i.e. seeking brief sanctuary or subsequently relocating) and departure (re-initiation of migration by birds that stopped over for >24 h). In contrast to many previous works on climate–migration associations, annual variation in stopover behavior did not show strong links to broad-scale climatic fluctuations for either temperate or tropical migrants, nor was there any indication of directional changes in stopover behavior over the past two decades. In addition to suggesting that migratory songbirds—particularly tropical-wintering species—may face increasing threats with future climatic variability, our study highlights the potential importance of flexibility in en-route behavior for resilience to environmental change.     

Seasonal associations with novel climates for North American migratory bird populations

Determining the implications of global climate change for highly mobile taxa such as migratory birds requires a perspective that is spatiotemporally comprehensive and ecologically relevant. Here, we document how passerine bird species that migrate within the Western Hemisphere (n = 77) are associated with projected novel climates across the full annual cycle. Following expectations, highly novel climates occurred on tropical non‐breeding grounds and the least novel climates occurred on temperate breeding grounds. Contrary to expectations, highly novel climates also occurred within temperate regions during the transition from breeding to autumn migration. This outcome was caused by lower inter‐annual climatic variability occurring in combination with stronger warming projections. Thus, migrants are projected to encounter novel climates across the majority of their annual cycle, with a pronounced peak occurring when juveniles are leaving the nest and preparing to embark on their first migratory journey, which may adversely affect their chances of survival.     

Seasonality of peak metabolic rate in non‐migrant tropical birds

Birds that are year‐round residents of temperate and tropical regions have divergent life histories. Tropical birds have a slower ‘pace of life’, one characteristic of which includes lower peak metabolic rate and daily activity levels. Temperate resident birds are faced with seasonal variation in thermogenic demand. This challenge is met with seasonally increased peak metabolic rate during winter. These thermogenic demands are much lower in birds that are year‐round tropical residents. By measuring peak (summit) metabolic rate in tropical and temperate resident bird species during summer and winter, we asked whether tropical birds exhibit seasonality in peak metabolic rate, and if the direction of seasonality differs between tropical and temperate species. We measured summit metabolism in seven tropical and one temperate species during the winter and during the summer breeding season to test the hypothesis that summit metabolism of tropical residents would change seasonally. We consider whether metabolic seasonality is associated with breeding season for tropical species. We found that summit metabolism was significantly greater during the summer for most tropical residents, while the temperate resident matched several previous reports with higher summit metabolism in winter. We conclude that metabolic seasonality occurs in tropical residents and differs from temperate residents, suggesting that breeding during the summer may be driving relatively higher metabolism as compared to winter thermogenesis in temperate birds.     

How Rainfall Variation Influences Reproductive Patterns of African Savanna Ungulates in an Equatorial Region Where Photoperiod Variation Is Absent

In high temperate latitudes, ungulates generally give birth within a narrow time window when conditions are optimal for offspring survival in spring or early summer, and use changing photoperiod to time conceptions so as to anticipate these conditions. However, in low tropical latitudes day length variation is minimal, and rainfall variation makes the seasonal cycle less predictable. Nevertheless, several ungulate species retain narrow birth peaks under such conditions, while others show births spread quite widely through the year. We investigated how within-year and between-year variation in rainfall influenced the reproductive timing of four ungulate species showing these contrasting patterns in the Masai Mara region of Kenya. All four species exhibited birth peaks during the putative optimal period in the early wet season. For hartebeest and impala, the birth peak was diffuse and offspring were born throughout the year. In contrast, topi and warthog showed a narrow seasonal concentration of births, with conceptions suppressed once monthly rainfall fell below a threshold level. High rainfall in the previous season and high early rains in the current year enhanced survival into the juvenile stage for all the species except impala. Our findings reveal how rainfall variation affecting grass growth and hence herbivore nutrition can govern the reproductive phenology of ungulates in tropical latitudes where day length variation is minimal. The underlying mechanism seems to be the suppression of conceptions once nutritional gains become insufficient. Through responding proximally to within-year variation in rainfall, tropical savanna ungulates are less likely to be affected adversely by the consequences of global warming for vegetation phenology than northern ungulates showing more rigid photoperiodic control over reproductive timing.     

Patterns of seasonal and yearly mass variation in West African tropical savannah birds

Birds in the northern hemisphere usually increase mass reserves in response to seasonal low temperatures and shorter day length that increase foraging unpredictability and so starvation risk. In the lowland tropics, relatively low temperatures and short day lengths are absent and so the risk of starvation may be reduced, leading to much smaller seasonal effects on mass. Nevertheless, other factors such as high temperatures and water and food availability may vary greatly between tropical wet and dry seasons, leading to variable starvation risk and seasonal mass effects. Using data collected from 47 species of birds caught over a 10‐year period in a tropical savannah region in West Africa we tested for seasonal variation in mass in response to a predictable, strongly seasonal tropical climate. Many species (91%) showed seasonal variation in mass, and this was often in a clear annual pattern that was constant across the years. Many species (89%) varied their mass in response to seasonally predictable rainfall. Annual variation in mass was also important (45% of species). Relatively few species (13%) had a seasonal pattern of mass variation that varied between years. Feeding guild or migratory status was not found to affect seasonal or annual mass variation. Seasonal mass change was on average 8.1% across the 21 species with a very large sample size and was comparable with both northern and southern temperate species. Our study showed that biologically significant consistent seasonal mass variation is common in tropical savannah bird species, and this is most likely in response to changing resource availability brought about by seasonal rainfall and the interrupted foraging response due to the constraints of breeding.     

Winter rainfall predicts phenology in widely separated populations of a migrant songbird

Climate change is affecting behaviour and phenology in many animals. In migratory birds, weather patterns both at breeding and at non-breeding sites can influence the timing of spring migration and breeding. However, variation in responses to weather across a species range has rarely been studied, particularly among populations that may winter in different locations. We used prior knowledge of migratory connectivity to test the influence of weather from predicted non-breeding sites on bird phenology in two breeding populations of a long-distance migratory bird species separated by 3,000 km. We found that winter rainfall showed similar associations with arrival and egg-laying dates in separate breeding populations on an east–west axis: greater rainfall in Jamaica and eastern Mexico was generally associated with advanced American redstart (Setophaga ruticilla) phenology in Ontario and Alberta, respectively. In Ontario, these patterns of response could largely be explained by changes in the behaviour of individual birds, i.e., phenotypic plasticity. By explicitly incorporating migratory connectivity into responses to climate, our data suggest that widely separated breeding populations can show independent and geographically specific associations with changing weather conditions. The tendency of individuals to delay migration and breeding following dry winters could result in population declines due to predicted drying trends in tropical areas and the tight linkage between early arrival/breeding and reproductive success in long-distance migrants.     

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.     

Linking El Niño,local rainfall,and migration timing in a tropical migratory species

Current climate models project changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe in the coming years. Migratory species, which move to take advantage of seasonal climate patterns, are likely to be affected by these changes, and indeed, a number of studies have shown a relationship between changing climate and the migration timing of various species. However, these studies have almost exclusively focused on the effects of temperature change on species that inhabit temperate zones. Here, we explore the relationship between rainfall and migration timing in a tropical species, Gecarcoidea natalis (Christmas Island red crab). We find that the timing of the annual crab breeding migration is closely related to the amount of rain that falls during a ‘migration window’ period prior to potential egg release dates, which is in turn related to the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric El Niño‐ Southern Oscillation Index. As reproduction in this species is conditional on successful migration, major changes in migration patterns could have detrimental consequences for the survival of the species. This study serves to broaden our understanding of the effects of climate change on migratory species and will hopefully inspire future work on rainfall and tropical migrations.     

Warming promotes cold-adapted phytoplankton in temperate lakes and opens a loophole for Oscillatoriales in spring

The effects of the recent warming trend in many northern temperate lakes on the species composition of spring phytoplankton remain poorly understood, especially because a recent change in nutrients has complicated efforts, and previous studies have defined spring according to the calendar. We analysed data from 1979 to 2004 from Lake Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany), using physical and biological parameters to define the spring period. We show that a change in timing of spring plankton events in warm years led to the paradox of lower mean water temperatures during the growth period, favouring cold-adapted diatoms over cyanobacteria, and within the diatoms, some cold-adapted centric forms over pennate forms. Under high P : Si ratios, the increased time between phytoplankton and cladoceran peaks opened a loophole for filamentous cyanobacteria (Oscillatoriales) in warm years to establish dominance after the diatoms, which are silicate limited. Therefore, the warming trend promotes filamentous cyanobacteria, a well-known nuisance in eutrophic lakes, and surprisingly, cold-adapted diatoms.     

Cross-generational effects of climate change on expression of a sexually selected trait

Sexually selected traits and early breeding are often correlated with quality in birds: individuals that breed earlier in the season have more elaborate traits and raise more surviving offspring [1, 2]. As global climate warms, breeding date for many temperate birds is advancing [3, 4], but we lack corresponding information on climate-induced variation in sexual selection. Here, we investigated influences of climate on a sexually selected plumage trait in a Himalayan warbler (Phylloscopus humei). We found that when spring is warm, birds breed early. Subsequent to an early-breeding year, adults express relatively large sexually selected traits and rear offspring that also develop large traits. The positive effects of early breeding, plus the across-year correlation between parent and offspring cohorts, predict that warmer climates should lead to increases in trait size. However, trait size has not increased over the past 25 years, even though mean breeding date has advanced. We show that whereas warm springs have positive effects on trait size, warm summers have negative effects due to increased feather wear. Apparent stasis in the size of a sexually selected trait thus masks large, conflicting influences of climate change. Continued climate warming has the potential to affect the honesty of sexual signals, as trait expression and condition become increasingly disassociated.     

Climate change and community disassembly: impacts of warming on tropical and temperate montane community structure

Both tropical and temperate species are responding to global warming through range shifts, but our understanding of the consequences of these shifts for whole communities is limited. Here, we use current elevational range data for six taxonomic groups spanning 90° in latitude to examine the potential impacts of climate-driven range shifts on community change, or 'disassembly', across latitude. Elevational ranges are smaller at low latitudes for most groups and, as a consequence, tropical communities appear to be more sensitive to temperature increases compared with temperate communities. Under site-specific temperature projections, we generally found greater community disassembly in tropical compared with temperate communities, although this varied by dispersal assumptions. Mountain height can impact the amount of community disassembly, with greater change occurring on smaller mountains. Finally, projected community disassembly was higher for ectotherms than endotherms, although the variation among ectotherms was greater than the variation separating endotherms and ectotherms.     

Life history events of the Eurasian sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus in a changing climate

Current climate change has been found to advance spring arrival and breeding dates of birds, but the effects on autumn migration and possible responses in the distribution of wintering individuals are poorly known. To thoroughly understand the consequences of climate change for animal life histories and populations, exploration of whole annual cycles are needed. We studied timing of migration (years 1979–2007), breeding phenology (1979–2007) and breeding success (1973–2007) of Eurasian sparrowhawks Accipiter nisus in Finland. We also investigated whether the migration distance of Finnish sparrowhawks has changed since the 1960s, using ringing recovery records. Since the late 1970s Finnish sparrowhawks have advanced their spring arrival, breeding and autumn departure considerably, but the migration distance has not changed. Early migrants, who are the ones with the highest reproductive success, show the strongest advance in the timing of spring migration. In autumn, advanced departure concerns young sparrowhawks. Late autumn migrants, who are mainly adults, have not advanced their migration significantly. The sparrowhawk is the most common bird of prey and the main predator of most passerines in Finland. Therefore, changes in sparrowhawk migration phenology may affect the migration behaviour of many prey species. The breeding success of sparrowhawks has increased significantly over the study period. This is however more likely caused by other factors than climate change, such as reduced exposure to organochlorine pollutants.     

Ocean cleaning stations under a changing climate: biological responses of tropical and temperate fish‐cleaner shrimp to global warming

Cleaning symbioses play an important role in the health of certain coastal marine communities. These interspecific associations often occur at specific sites (cleaning stations) where a cleaner organism (commonly a fish or shrimp) removes ectoparasites/damaged tissue from a ‘client’ (a larger cooperating fish). At present, the potential impact of climate change on the fitness of cleaner organisms remains unknown. This study investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of tropical (Lysmata amboinensis) and temperate (L. seticaudata) cleaner shrimp to global warming. Specifically, thermal limits (CTMax), metabolic rates, thermal sensitivity, heat shock response (HSR), lipid peroxidation [malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration], lactate levels, antioxidant (GST, SOD and catalase) and digestive enzyme activities (trypsin and alkaline phosphatase) at current and warming (+3 °C) temperature conditions. In contrast to the temperate species, CTMax values decreased significantly from current (24–27 °C) to warming temperature conditions (30 °C) for the tropical shrimp, where metabolic thermal sensitivity was affected and the HSR was significantly reduced. MDA levels in tropical shrimp increased dramatically, indicating extreme cellular lipid peroxidation, which was not observed in the temperate shrimp. Lactate levels, GST and SOD activities were significantly enhanced within the muscle tissue of the tropical species. Digestive enzyme activities in the hepatopancreas of both species were significantly decreased by warmer temperatures. Our data suggest that the tropical cleaner shrimp will be more vulnerable to global warming than the temperate Lysmata seticaudata; the latter evolved in a relatively unstable environment with seasonal thermal variations that may have conferred greater adaptive plasticity. Thus, tropical cleaning symbioses may be challenged at a greater degree by warming‐related anthropogenic forcing, with potential cascading effects on the health and structuring of tropical coastal communities (e.g. coral reefs).