Suicide rates in young men in England and Wales in the 21st century: time trend study

Objectives To explore trends in suicide in young people to investigate the recent observation that after year on year rises in the 1970s, 1980s, and early 1990s, rates in young men are now declining.Design Time trend analysis.Setting England and Wales, 1968-2005.Population Men and women aged 15-34 years.Results Since the 1990s, rates of suicide in young men have declined steadily and by 2005 they were at their lowest level for almost 30 years. This decline is partly because of a reduction in poisoning with car exhaust gas as an increased number of cars have catalytic converters; but there have been declines in suicides from all common methods, including hanging, suggesting a more pervasive effect. Other risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment and divorce, have also decreased. Possible recent reductions in alcohol use among young men and increases in prescribing of antidepressants do not seem to be temporally related to the decline in suicide.Conclusions Suicide rates in young men have declined markedly in the past 10 years in England and Wales. Reductions in key risk factors for suicide, such as unemployment, might be contributing to lower rates.     

Suicides after pregnancy in Finland, 1987-94: register linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine rates of suicide associated with pregnancy by the type of pregnancy. DESIGN: Register linkage study. Information on suicides in women of reproductive age was linked with the Finnish birth, abortion, and hospital discharge registers to find out how many women who committed suicide had had a completed pregnancy during her last year of life. SETTING: Nationwide data from Finland. SUBJECTS: Women who committed suicide in 1987-94. RESULTS: There were 73 suicides associated with pregnancy, representing 5.4% of all suicides in women in this age group. The mean annual suicide rate was 11.3 per 100,000. The suicide rate associated with birth was significantly lower (5.9) and the rates associated with miscarriage (18.1) and induced abortion (34.7) were significantly higher than in the population. The risk associated with birth was higher among teenagers and that associated with abortion was increased in all age groups. Women who had committed a suicide tended to come from lower social classes and were more likely to be unmarried than other women who had had a completed pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The increased risk of suicide after an induced abortion indicates either common risk factors for both or harmful effects of induced abortion on mental health.     

Forecast models for suicide: Time-series analysis with data from Italy

The prediction of suicidal behavior is a complex task. To fine-tune targeted preventative interventions, predictive analytics (i.e. forecasting future risk of suicide) is more important than exploratory data analysis (pattern recognition, e.g. detection of seasonality in suicide time series). This study sets out to investigate the accuracy of forecasting models of suicide for men and women. A total of 101 499 male suicides and of 39 681 female suicides – occurred in Italy from 1969 to 2003 – were investigated. In order to apply the forecasting model and test its accuracy, the time series were split into a training set (1969 to 1996; 336 months) and a test set (1997 to 2003; 84 months). The main outcome was the accuracy of forecasting models on the monthly number of suicides. These measures of accuracy were used: mean absolute error; root mean squared error; mean absolute percentage error; mean absolute scaled error. In both male and female suicides a change in the trend pattern was observed, with an increase from 1969 onwards to reach a maximum around 1990 and decrease thereafter. The variances attributable to the seasonal and trend components were, respectively, 24% and 64% in male suicides, and 28% and 41% in female ones. Both annual and seasonal historical trends of monthly data contributed to forecast future trends of suicide with a margin of error around 10%. The finding is clearer in male than in female time series of suicide. The main conclusion of the study is that models taking seasonality into account seem to be able to derive information on deviation from the mean when this occurs as a zenith, but they fail to reproduce it when it occurs as a nadir. Preventative efforts should concentrate on the factors that influence the occurrence of increases above the main trend in both seasonal and cyclic patterns of suicides.     

Annual fluctuations of sunlight and suicides in a region South of the Tropic of Cancer

Studies in temperate countries show a direct correlation between the hours of daily light and the frequency of suicides. This relationship is damped in countries at the equatorial level, and what happens near the tropic lines is unknown. In this paper the suicide rates as well as the monthly average of daily light were analyzed in hours from 1990 to 2016 in Campeche, Mexico, a place with a high rate of suicide deaths and near the latitude of the Tropic of Cancer. The results showed that total suicides and sunshine were positively correlated (r = 0.649; p = 0.022) and the peak of maximum light in June coincides with the maximum suicide peak. There were non-significant peaks of higher suicides in June and December for men and in May for women. However, a clear, significant peak (p = 0.003) showed up in spring. We recommend strengthening the prevention programs during these periods.     

The Impact of Media Reporting on the Emergence of Charcoal Burning Suicide in Taiwan

We investigated the association of the intensity of newspaper reporting of charcoal burning suicide with the incidence of such deaths in Taiwan during 1998–2002. A counting process approach was used to estimate the incidence of suicides and intensity of news reporting. Conditional Poisson generalized linear autoregressive models were performed to assess the association of the intensity of newspaper reporting of charcoal burning and non-charcoal burning suicides with the actual number of charcoal burning and non-charcoal burning suicides the following day. We found that increases in the reporting of charcoal burning suicide were associated with increases in the incidence of charcoal burning suicide on the following day, with each reported charcoal burning news item being associated with a 16% increase in next day charcoal burning suicide (p<.0001). However, the reporting of other methods of suicide was not related to their incidence. We conclude that extensive media reporting of charcoal burning suicides appears to have contributed to the rapid rise in the incidence of the novel method in Taiwan during the initial stage of the suicide epidemic. Regulating media reporting of novel suicide methods may prevent an epidemic spread of such new methods.     

Seasonal Variation of Suicide in Brazil

Most of what is known about the seasonal variation in suicide rate originates from studies conducted in the northern hemisphere; very few studies have been done in the southern hemisphere. The purpose of the present study was to explore the possibility that in Brazil, the seasonal variation of suicides is a function of photoperiod. This was accomplished by analyzing monthly suicide data for a 12 yr period (1979 to 1990), within latitudes ranging from 2°N to 33°S. Single cosinor analyses with periods of 12 or 6 months were applied to time series of monthly total and suicidal deaths, separated by gender and state. Significant spring or early summer peaks of suicide were found only in the south of Brazil for both men and women, except for the latter in one state. These peaks did not coincide with those found for total deaths, which occurred in the autumn or winter in all areas. No significant six‐month period was found. In the present study, the chance of a suicide was typically 10–17% higher during the peak period than during the other months of the year. Although this moderate seasonal effect might not be sufficient to justify planning large scale prophylactic interventions, those dealing with patients who have suicide ideation should be aware of this high risk time.     

Seasonal variation of suicide in Brazil

Most of what is known about the seasonal variation in suicide rate originates from studies conducted in the northern hemisphere; very few studies have been done in the southern hemisphere. The purpose of the present study was to explore the possibility that in Brazil, the seasonal variation of suicides is a function of photoperiod. This was accomplished by analyzing monthly suicide data for a 12 yr period (1979 to 1990), within latitudes ranging from 2°N to 33°S. Single cosinor analyses with periods of 12 or 6 months were applied to time series of monthly total and suicidal deaths, separated by gender and state. Significant spring or early summer peaks of suicide were found only in the south of Brazil for both men and women, except for the latter in one state. These peaks did not coincide with those found for total deaths, which occurred in the autumn or winter in all areas. No significant six-month period was found. In the present study, the chance of a suicide was typically 10-17% higher during the peak period than during the other months of the year. Although this moderate seasonal effect might not be sufficient to justify planning large scale prophylactic interventions, those dealing with patients who have suicide ideation should be aware of this high risk time.     

Influence of lunar phases on suicide: the end of a myth? A population-based study

The hypothesis of lunar influence on suicide remains widespread, despite the fact that little scientific evidence to substantiate it. We conducted a population-based study to assess the influence of the lunar phases on suicides according to age, sex, and chosen method. The study included all suicides in Middle Franconia between 1998 and 2003. From a population-based sample of 3351 events, the files of 3054 suicides (1949 males and 1105 females) were complete for the study variables. Data were categorized by lunar phase, sex, age, and chosen method—“violent” vs. “non-violent” acts. No significant relationship was detected between the full, absent, and moon's interphases and suicide incidence. Nevertheless, there was a weak association between the absent moon and choice of a non-violent suicide method in men aged less than the median of 40.2 yrs. There was no evidence of a relationship between suicide and lunar phase. Some explanations for this phenomenon are discussed.     

CIRCADIAN RHYTHMS DURING CYCLING EXERCISE AND FINGER-TAPPING TASK

The hypothesis of lunar influence on suicide remains widespread, despite the fact that little scientific evidence to substantiate it. We conducted a population‐based study to assess the influence of the lunar phases on suicides according to age, sex, and chosen method. The study included all suicides in Middle Franconia between 1998 and 2003. From a population‐based sample of 3351 events, the files of 3054 suicides (1949 males and 1105 females) were complete for the study variables. Data were categorized by lunar phase, sex, age, and chosen method—“violent” vs. “non‐violent” acts. No significant relationship was detected between the full, absent, and moon's interphases and suicide incidence. Nevertheless, there was a weak association between the absent moon and choice of a non‐violent suicide method in men aged less than the median of 40.2 yrs. There was no evidence of a relationship between suicide and lunar phase. Some explanations for this phenomenon are discussed.     

Low serum cholesterol concentration and short term mortality from injuries in men and women.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether total serum cholesterol concentration predicts mortality from injuries including suicide. DESIGN--Cohort study of men and women who had their serum cholesterol concentration measured as part of a general health survey in Värmland, Sweden in 1964 or 1965 and were followed up for an average of 20.5 years. SUBJECTS--Adults participating in health screening in 1964-5 (26,693 men and 27,692 women). The study sample was restricted to subjects aged 45-74 years during any of the 20.5 years of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Serum cholesterol concentration. Deaths from all injuries and suicides during three periods of follow up (0-6 years, 7-13 years, and 14-21 years) according to the Swedish mortality register in subjects aged 45-74. Adjustment was made for prevalent cancer (identified from the Swedish cancer register) at the time of a suicide. RESULTS--A strong negative relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality from injuries was found in men during the first seven years of follow up. The relative risk in the lowest 25% of the cholesterol distribution was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.52 to 4.96) compared with the top 25%. Most of the excess risk was caused by suicide with a corresponding relative risk of 4.2 (p for trend = 0.001). Correction for prevalent cancer did not change the results. Events occurring during the latter two thirds of the 20.5 years of follow up were not predicted. In women no relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality from injuries was found. CONCLUSIONS--Together with observations from intervention trials the findings support the existence of a relation between serum cholesterol concentration and suicide. The causality of such a relation is, however, not resolved.     

Suicide in General Hospitals

Of 14 medical and surgical patients who committed suicide in a general hospital, there were ten men and four women, ranging in age from 19 to 82. The patients had not made statements of suicidal intent; however, their hospital records showed there had been symptoms of depression and contained indirect references to a preoccupation with suicide. Most of the patients had been depressed because of their illnesses or distressing symptoms.It is important to keep in mind that there are clues that help anticipate suicide. Awareness by hospital staffs of symptoms and subtle signs of depression and of suicidal thoughts in patients is important in reducing the number of suicides in general hospitals. Of preventive and treatment measures, warmth, compassion and commitment to the care of patients by hospital staffs are most important.     

Why Has the Continuous Decline in German Suicide Rates Stopped in 2007?

Background

Whereas German suicide rates had a clear decreasing tendency between 1991 and 2006, they increased from 2007 to 2010. Deeper analyses of suicide data might help to understand better this change. The aim of this study was to analyze 1) whether recent trends can be related to changes in specific suicide methods and diverge by gender and age; 2) whether the decrease of suicide rates before 2007 as well as the increase from 2007 to 2010 are driven by the same suicide method.

Methods

Analyses were based on suicide data from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. For 1998–2010, 136.583 suicide cases of men and women with known age and suicide method could be identified. These data were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis, allowing identification of the best fitting point in time (“joinpoint”) at which the suicide rate significantly changes in magnitude or direction.

Results

The national downward trend between 1998 and 2007 was mainly due to corresponding changes in self-poisoning by other means than drugs (e.g., pesticides) (annual percentage change (APC) ≤ −4.33), drowning (APC ≤ −2.73), hanging (APC ≤ −2.69) and suicides by firearms (APC ≤ −1.46) in both genders. Regarding the overall increase of age-adjusted suicide rates in Germany 2007–2010, mainly the increase of self-poisoning (e.g., by drugs) and “being overrun” (APC ≥ 1.50) contributed to this trend.

Limitations

The true suicide rates might have been underestimated because of errors in the official death certificates.

Conclusions

Increase in suicide rates in Germany since 2007 went along with corresponding changes for “being overrun” and “self-poisoning”. Copycat suicides following the railway suicide of the goalkeeper Robert Enke partly contributed to the results. Thus, prevention of Werther effects and limitation of the availability of high pack sizes for drugs are of special relevance for the reversal of this trend.     

Suicide and Social Change in China

Using recently available data from China's Disease Surveillance Points system, we estimate that there are over 300,000 suicides in China per year; this makes suicide one of the most important causes of death in the country and makes the suicide rate in China one of the highest in the world. Moreover, the pattern of suicides in China is quite different than in other parts of the world – there are more completed suicides among females than males and rural rates are three-fold urban rates. The lack of reliable suicide data prior to 1987 makes it difficult to determine whether the rates are currently rising, falling, or staying constant. However, reports of suicides in the Chinese press and case studies conducted by the authors suggest (but do not prove) that the high rates of suicide currently experienced are related to the social changes that have occurred with the economic reforms (which started in 1978). Another possible explanation for the high rates of suicide is the large numbers of persons with depressive illness in China who remain untreated. Single-cause models of suicide (i.e., social factors or mental illness) do not do justice to the complexity of the processes involved and, therefore, do not provide useful information about the etiology and prevention of suicide in China or elsewhere. We describe our own dynamic model of suicide that includes five interacting factors which, we believe, collectively determine the suicide rates in a community.     

HIV/AIDS and the Gendering of Stigma in Tamil Nadu,South India

Drawing on the seminal theoretical work on stigma by Goffman, this article analyzes stigma through the lens of Parker and Aggleton, who call for the joining of Goffman and Foucault to better grasp relationships among stigma, power and social inequality. Studies on the social impact of HIV/AIDS globally have demonstrated that women tend to be blamed for the spread of HIV/AIDS, and as a result, HIV-positive women face greater stigma and discrimination than HIV-positive men. Based on ethnographic research among 50 HIV-positive women in South India in 2002–2003 and 2004, my research supports this standard argument. However, my findings suggest that the gendering of stigma and discrimination is more complex and context specific. The gendering of stigma varies depending on the social context of private versus public spheres. The tendency to stigmatize women is due in part to cultural constructions of gendered bodies and not only to a gendered double standard of sexual morality, as has been previously reported. Even when a cultural argument about women’s wayward sexuality is evoked, this rhetoric must be understood in part as a strategy to mask economically motivated responses, rather simply being attributed to sexist ideology per se.     

Information Accessibility of the Charcoal Burning Suicide Method in Mainland China

Background

There has been a marked rise in suicide by charcoal burning (CB) in some East Asian countries but little is known about its incidence in mainland China. We examined media-reported CB suicides and the availability of online information about the method in mainland China.

Methods

We extracted and analyzed data for i) the characteristics and trends of fatal and nonfatal CB suicides reported by mainland Chinese newspapers (1998–2014); ii) trends and geographic variations in online searches using keywords relating to CB suicide (2011–2014); and iii) the content of Internet search results.

Results

109 CB suicide attempts (89 fatal and 20 nonfatal) were reported by newspapers in 13 out of the 31 provinces or provincial-level-municipalities in mainland China. There were increasing trends in the incidence of reported CB suicides and in online searches using CB-related keywords. The province-level search intensities were correlated with CB suicide rates (Spearman’s correlation coefficient = 0.43 [95% confidence interval: 0.08–0.68]). Two-thirds of the web links retrieved using the search engine contained detailed information about the CB suicide method, of which 15% showed pro-suicide attitudes, and the majority (86%) did not encourage people to seek help.

Limitations

The incidence of CB suicide was based on newspaper reports and likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

Mental health and suicide prevention professionals in mainland China should be alert to the increased use of this highly lethal suicide method. Better surveillance and intervention strategies need to be developed and implemented.     

The Werther Effect of Two Celebrity Suicides: an Entertainer and a Politician

Purpose

Suicide is a major health problem in Korea. Extensive media exposure of celebrity suicide may induce imitative suicide, a phenomenon called the Werther effect. We examined the increased suicide risk following the suicides of an entertainer and a politician, and identified the relative suicide risks.

Methods

News articles about the celebrity suicides were obtained from three major newspapers and analysed for quantitative and qualitative features. Imitative suicide risk was investigated by applying a Poisson time series autoregression model with suicide mortality data from the National Statistics Office for 1.5 years before and 1.5 years after each celebrity’s suicide. The period with a significantly increased number of suicides immediately after the celebrity’s suicide determined the Werther effect band. The relative risk during this period was examined for different ages, genders, and suicide methods.

Results

News reports were more numerous and they contained more positive definitions about the entertainer’s suicide. The risk of suicide deaths rose markedly after both celebrity suicides. However, the Werther effect band was longer for the entertainer (6 weeks) than for the politician (4 weeks). The relative suicide risk was significant for almost all ages and both genders during that of both individuals. Use of the same suicide method was a prominent risk factor after both celebrity suicides.

Conclusions

Our results confirm the existence of imitative suicide behaviours, suggesting a facilitation effect of media reports. Guidelines for responsible media reporting need to be implemented to enhance public mental health in Korea.     

Suicide and attempted suicide among South Asians in England: who is at risk?

Evidence from both large-scale and small-scale studies suggests differences and similarities in patterns of suicide and attempted suicide between South Asians and the total population in England. Among South Asians, the excess of females among both suicides and attempted suicides is even more marked; the traditional view of a strong family structure among Asians is confirmed, although cultural conflict between generations is apparent. The technique of suicide by burning among Asians appears to be waning. Asians who attempt or complete suicide are more likely to be suffering from stress, but less likely to have been diagnosed as mentally ill. Their psychological problems appear to have been frequently overlooked by general practitioners, or not presented to them. Differences in religion, with Hindus producing higher rates than Muslims, and demographic, geographical, financial and cultural differences, contribute to the need for disaggregation and up-to-date research.     

Suicide among Arab-Americans

Background

Arab-American (AA) populations in the US are exposed to discrimination and acculturative stress—two factors that have been associated with higher suicide risk. However, prior work suggests that socially oriented norms and behaviors, which characterize recent immigrant ethnic groups, may be protective against suicide risk. Here we explored suicide rates and their determinants among AAs in Michigan, the state with the largest proportion of AAs in the US.

Methodology/Principal Findings

ICD-9/10 underlying cause of death codes were used to identify suicide deaths from among all deaths in Michigan between 1990 and 2007. Data from the 2000 U.S. Census were collected for population denominators. Age-adjusted suicide rates among AAs and non-ethnic whites were calculated by gender using the direct method of standardization. We also stratified by residence inside or outside of Wayne County (WC), the county with the largest AA population in the state. Suicide rates were 25.10 per 100,000 per year among men and 6.40 per 100,000 per year among women in Michigan from 1990 to 2007. AA men had a 51% lower suicide rate and AA women had a 33% lower rate than non-ethnic white men and women, respectively. The suicide rate among AA men in WC was 29% lower than in all other counties, while the rate among AA women in WC was 20% lower than in all other counties. Among non-ethnic whites, the suicide rate in WC was higher compared to all other counties among both men (12%) and women (16%).

Conclusions/Significance

Suicide rates were higher among non-ethnic white men and women compared to AA men and women in both contexts. Arab ethnicity may protect against suicide in both sexes, but more so among men. Additionally, ethnic density may protect against suicide among Arab-Americans.     

Suicide in Nepal: Qualitative Findings from a Modified Case-Series Psychological Autopsy Investigation of Suicide Deaths

South Asia accounts for the majority of the world’s suicide deaths, but typical psychiatric or surveillance-based research approaches are limited due to incomplete vital surveillance. Despite rich anthropological scholarship in the region, such work has not been used to address public health gaps in surveillance and nor inform prevention programs designed based on surveillance data. Our goal was to leverage useful strategies from both public health and anthropological approaches to provide rich narrative reconstructions of suicide events, told by family members or loved ones of the deceased, to further contextualize the circumstances of suicide. Specifically, we sought to untangle socio-cultural and structural patterns in suicide cases to better inform systems-level surveillance strategies and salient community-level suicide prevention opportunities. Using a mixed-methods psychological autopsy approach for cross-cultural research (MPAC) in both urban and rural Nepal, 39 suicide deaths were examined. MPAC was used to document antecedent events, characteristics of persons completing suicide, and perceived drivers of each suicide. Patterns across suicide cases include (1) lack of education (72% of cases); (2) life stressors such as poverty (54%), violence (61.1%), migrant labor (33% of men), and family disputes often resulting in isolation or shame (56.4%); (3) family histories of suicidal behavior (62%), with the majority involving an immediate family member; (4) gender differences: female suicides were attributed to hopeless situations, such as spousal abuse, with high degrees of social stigma. In contrast, male suicides were most commonly associated with drinking and resulted from internalized stigma, such as financial failure or an inability to provide for their family; (5) justifications for suicide were attributions to ‘fate’ and personality characteristics such as ‘stubbornness’ and ‘egoism’; (5) power dynamics and available agency precluded some families from disputing the death as a suicide and also had implications for the condemnation or justification of particular suicides. Importantly, only 1 out of 3 men and 1 out of 6 women had any communication to family members about suicidal ideation prior to completion. Findings illustrate the importance of MPAC methods for capturing cultural narratives evoked after completed suicides, recognizing culturally salient warning signs, and identifying potential barriers to disclosure and justice seeking by families. These findings elucidate how suicide narratives are structured by family members and reveal public health opportunities for creating or supplementing mortality surveillance, intervening in higher risk populations such as survivors of suicide, and encouraging disclosure.     

Suicide and public health

Suicide as a public health problem is generally underestimated. Deaths from suicide annually outnumber those from cancer of the respiratory system or of other common sites; more than twice as many die by suicide as from most communicable diseases combined. Most suicides are motivated by concern over ill health or domestic difficulties.A program tried in Yolo County to follow up persons who have attempted suicide indicates that a more systematic and widespread effort in this direction might be of value to the public health. It is recommended that attempts at suicide be considered a reportable disease for a one-year period and that a statewide program for following the patients be put into effect to provide rehabilitation as well as symptomatic treatment. Efforts by local health departments and private physicians are also worth while in reducing attempts at suicide.