Dry season distribution of land crabs, Gecarcinus quadratus (Crustacea: Gecarcinidae), in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica

The land crab Gecarcinus quadratus is an engineering species that controls nutrient cycling in tropical forests. Factors regulating their coastal distribution are not fully understood. We quantified land crab distribution during the dry season at Sirena Field Station in Corcovado National Park, Costa Rica, and found that land crab burrow density decreases with increasing distance from the ocean. Leaf litter depth and tree seedling density are negatively correlated with land crab burrow density. Burrows are strongly associated with sand substrate and burrow density is comparatively low in clay substrate. Results suggest that G. quadratus is limited to a narrow coastal zone with sand substrate, and this distribution could have profound effects on plant community structure.     

Effects of season and area on ectoparasites of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Mississippi

Nine species of ectoparasites (4 Acari, 2 Mallophaga, 1 Anoplura, 1 Diptera, and 1 Siphonaptera) were recovered from 126 white-tailed deer collected in northern, central, and southern Mississippi. Intensity and prevalence of adults of Ixodes scapularis and larvae, nymphs, and adults of Amblyomma americanum varied significantly over collection periods, but not between host sexes. Lipoptena mazamae occurred on deer from only one study area. Although individual deer were heavily parasitized by Tricholipeurus parallelus and T. lipeuroides, their prevalence was limited. Hoplopsyllus sp., Solenopotes sp., Amblyomma maculatum, and Dermacentor albipictus had prevalences of less than 10% and were not tested for area, host sex, and seasonal effects. The potential pathogenicity of these ectoparasite species are related to white-tailed deer in Mississippi.     

Snake-directed Behavior by Snake Naive and Experienced California Ground Squirrels in a Simulated Burrow

Snake naive and experienced California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) were video taped while interacting with either a gopher snake or rattlesnake in a simulated burrow dimly illuminated with red light. Using nonvisually guided behavior, naive and experienced squirrels reacted to snakes in qualitatively similar ways, and behaved more defensively toward snakes than toward a control stimulus (white rat). The squirrels alternately interacted with the snake and attempted to escape from the burrow, which had a sealed entrance. Interaction with the snake included cautious approach in elongate postures, prolonged investigation of adjacent alleys before entering them, kicking sand at the snake, frequent tooth chattering, occasional calling, and building burrow plugs out of sand. These they packed by butting with their heads. When permitted to escape from the burrow, they turned just outside the entrance to tail flag, kick sand, scent mark, and finally plug the burrow. Since visual cues were not available, olfactory and auditory stimuli from the snake appeared to mediate snake-directed behavior in the burrow.     

Depth of artificial Burrowing Owl burrows affects thermal suitability and occupancy

Many organizations have installed artificial burrows to help bolster local Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) populations. However, occupancy probability and reproductive success in artificial burrows varies within and among burrow installations. We evaluated the possibility that depth below ground might explain differences in occupancy probability and reproductive success by affecting the temperature of artificial burrows. We measured burrow temperatures from March to July 2010 in 27 artificial burrows in southern California that were buried 15–76 cm below the surface (measured between the surface and the top of the burrow chamber). Burrow depth was one of several characteristics that affected burrow temperature. Burrow temperature decreased by 0.03°C per cm of soil on top of the burrow. The percentage of time that artificial burrows provided a thermal refuge from above‐ground temperature decreased with burrow depth and ranged between 50% and 58% among burrows. The percentage of time that burrow temperature was optimal for incubating females also decreased with burrow depth and ranged between 27% and 100% among burrows. However, the percentage of time that burrow temperature was optimal for unattended eggs increased with burrow depth and ranged between 11% and 95% among burrows. We found no effect of burrow depth on reproductive success across 21 nesting attempts. However, occupancy probability had a non‐linear relationship with burrow depth. The shallowest burrows (15 cm) had a moderate probability of being occupied (0.46), burrows between 28 and 40 cm had the highest probability of being occupied (>0.80), and burrows >53 cm had the lowest probability of being occupied (<0.43). Burrowing Owls may prefer burrows at moderate depths because these burrows provide a thermal refuge from above‐ground temperatures, and are often cool enough to allow females to leave eggs unattended before the onset of full‐time incubation, but not too cool for incubating females that spend most of their time in the burrow during incubation. Our results suggest that depth is an important consideration when installing artificial burrows for Burrowing Owls. However, additional study is needed to determine the possible effects of burrow depth on reproductive success and on possible tradeoffs between the effects of burrow depth on optimal temperature and other factors, such as minimizing the risk of nest predation.     

Burrow structure and foraging costs in the fossorial rodent,Thomomys bottae

Summary A model for calculating the energy cost of burrowing by fossorial rodents is presented and used to examine the energetics of foraging by burrowing. The pocket gopher Thomomys bottae (Rodentia: Geomyidae) digs burrows for access to food. Feeding tunnels of Thomomys are broken into segments by laterals to the surface that are used to dispose of excavated soil. Energy cost of burrowing depends on both soil type and on burrow structure, defined by the length of burrow segments, angle of ascent of laterals, depth of feeding tunnels, and burrow diameter. In a desert scrub habitat, Thomomys adjust burrow segment length to minimize cost of burrowing. Observed segment lengths (mean=1.33 m) closely approximate the minimum-cost segment length of 1.22 m. Minimizing energy expended per meter of tunnel constructed maximizes efficiency of foraging by burrowing in the desert scrub. Burrow diameter and cost of burrowing increase with body size, while benefits do not, so foraging by burrowing becomes less enconomical as body size increases. Maximum possible body size of fossorial mammals depends on habitat productivity and energy cost of burrowing in local soils.     

Commensalism used by freshwater crayfish species to survive drying in seasonal habitats

Abstract. Gramastacus insolitus is a very small non-burrowing Australian freshwater crayfish with a restricted distribution, occurring almost exclusively in seasonal habitats throughout its range. It is listed as a threatened species but its strategy for surviving dry periods was unknown. Eight seasonal surveys of crayfish distribution showed that members of G. insolitus were never found at sites that were outside the distribution of two larger burrowing freshwater crayfish species, Geocharax falcata and Cherax destructor. Excavation of 80 burrows of members of G. falcata and C. destructor in three different seasonal habitats in the Grampians National Park, Victoria, Australia, revealed that individuals of G. insolitus found refuge from drying by estivating in cracks and shallow depressions at the side of the main burrow tunnels constructed by larger species. Members of G. insolitus were not found estivating at the surface, such as under fallen wood, nor was it usually found in crayfish burrows unoccupied by the host crayfish. This study indicates that members of G. insolitus are commensal upon larger crayfish species, using their burrows to survive the seasonal drying of their habitat. Conservation strategies for populations of G. insolitus will need to consider co-existing species of burrowing crayfish.     

Distribution and phylogenetic analyses of an endangered tick,Amblyomma sphenodonti

Abstract

In this study we investigate the geographic distribution, genetic diversity, and phylogenetic relationships of an endangered tick, Amblyomma sphenodonti (Family Ixodidae). Amblyomma sphenodonti and its host, the tuatara (Sphenodon), are found only on small offshore islands around New Zealand. Our results show that Amblyomma sphenodonti has a more severely restricted geographic distribution than its host, as it was found on only eight of 28 islands (four out of 12 island groups) where tuatara still live. The prevalence of A. sphenodonti is likely to have been affected by low host density and fluctuations in host population size as tuatara populations became isolated on offshore islands. Analysis of A. sphenodonti cytochrome oxidase 1 (CO1) sequences indicated a lack of gene flow between islands, with fixed differences in CO1 sequences between islands, but almost no genetic diversity within island populations. A similar phylogenetic pattern to that observed in tuatara mtDNA was observed, indicating co‐evolution of two species, at least since the Pleistocene. Phylogenetic analysis using 18S rRNA sequences suggest that A. sphenodonti is not closely related to other Amblyomma species, and that a separate genus for this species may be warranted. However, data from other ixodid ticks are required before the distinctiveness of A. sphenodonti can be confirmed and the phylogenetic relationships among ixodid ticks fully understood.     

Cophylogeny on a fine scale: Geomydoecus chewing lice and their pocket gopher hosts, Pappogeomys bulleri

Many species of pocket gophers and their ectoparasitic chewing lice have broadly congruent phylogenies, indicating a history of frequent codivergence. For a variety of reasons, phylogenies of codiverging hosts and parasites are expected to be less congruent for more recently diverged taxa. This study is the first of its scale in the pocket gopher and chewing louse system, with its focus entirely on comparisons among populations within a single species of host and 3 chewing louse species in the Geomydoecus bulleri species complex. We examined mitochondrial DNA from a total of 46 specimens of Geomydoecus lice collected from 11 populations of the pocket gopher host, Pappogeomys bulleri. We also examined nuclear DNA from a subset of these chewing lice. Louse phylogenies were compared with a published pocket gopher phylogeny. Contrary to expectations, we observed a statistically significant degree of parallel cladogenesis in these closely related hosts and their parasites. We also observed a higher rate of evolution in chewing louse lineages than in their corresponding pocket gopher hosts. In addition, we found that 1 louse species (Geomydoecus burti) may not be a valid species, that subspecies within G. bulleri are not reciprocally monophyletic, and that morphological and genetic evidence support recognition of a new species of louse, Geomydoecus pricei.     

Geographic genetic architecture of pocket gopher (Thomomys bottae) populations in Baja California, Mexico

Phylogenetic analyses of complete mitochondrial cytochrome b sequences support the monophyly of pocket gopher (Thomomys bottae) populations from the 1000 km length of the Baja California peninsula of Mexico, relative to other geographical segments of the species range in western North America. The Baja California peninsula is an area that encompasses considerable ecomorphological and infraspecific diversity within this pocket gopher species. However, detailed population analyses encompassing 35 localities distributed over the southern half of the peninsula reveal only trivial phylogeographical structure. Rather, most of the 72 unique 500-base pair haplotypes examined from 142 individuals is restricted to single populations, although a few haplotypes are shared broadly across geography. Individual populations are typically comprised of haplotype sets from different branches in a network of relationships. Analysis of molecular variance (amova) indicates that approximately half of the total pool of variation is contained among individuals within local populations, and that only about 25% can be explained by the regional subdivisions of current subspecies distributions or physiographic realms. A hypothesized historical vicariant event that has been causally linked to the phylogeographical structure of other, codistributed species has had little influence on these pocket gopher populations, explaining only 13% of the total variation. The temporal depth, estimated by coalescence parameters, of the haplotype lineage in Baja California is relatively recent, approximately 300,000 generations; both the mismatch distribution of pairwise comparisons and a significantly positive exponential growth estimate support a recent history of expanding populations; but current, or recent past, migration estimates have remained small, are largely unidirectional from north to south, and weak isolation by distance is present. All data suggest that pocket gophers have relatively recently invaded the southern half of peninsular Baja California, with the genetic signature of expansion still evident but with sufficient time having lapsed to result in a weak isolation by distance pattern. The geographical assemblage of sampled populations thus appears as a meta-population, with limited gene flow contrasting with random haplotype loss due to drift in small, localized populations.     

Does food‐searching ability determine habitat selection? Foraging in sand of three species of gerbilline rodents

The distribution of three gerbil species in the Negev Desert, Israel differs in relation to sandy habitats. Gerbillus gerbillus occurs in sand only, Gerbillus dasyurus lives in all habitat types except sand, Gerbillus henleyi occurs in sand at high density periods only. We hypothesized that the reason for this distribution pattern is differential ability of species to forage in sand. We tested the ability of gerbils to search for seeds in sand layers of different depths and predicted that a) G. gerbillus will have equal search success at different sand depths, b) G. henleyi (which is twice smaller than G. gerbillus and G. dasyurus) will find seeds in thin layers better than in deep layers, and c) G. dasyurus will successfully find seeds in the thinnest layers only. We predicted also d) that G. gerbillus relies on olfaction for seed location, so its foraging success will be higher in searching for whole seeds than for seed kernels, whereas this will not be the case for G. henleyi and G. dasyurus. We examined the responses of the three species to odor of whole seeds vs seed kernels in Y-maze. In regards to seed depth, the search success of G. gerbillus was significantly higher when the whole seeds rather than kernels were offered in all treatments except the control, but sand depth did not influence the search success. The search success of G. dasyurus and G. henleyi did not depend on the type of seeds offered. The search success of G. dasyurus was lower in experimental (1, 3, 5 and 8 cm sand depth) than in control (1 mm sand depth) treatments, but did not differ among most experimental treatments. The search success of the smallest G. henleyi depended on sand depth for both whole seeds and kernels. Gerbillus gerbillus and G. dasyurus did not lose body masses in any treatment, whereas body mass changes of G. henleyi were influenced by the depth of sand in which gerbils foraged. No species demonstrated differences in response to whole seeds vs kernels in Y-maze tests.     

Influence of estuarine and continental shelf water advection on the coastal movements of apron ray Discopyge tschudii in the Southwestern Atlantic

Evaluated was the seasonal and inter‐annual association between habitat variables and distribution pattern of the apron ray (Discopyge tschudii) and its relationship, with the main force on the environmental condition to understand the influence of estuarine and continental shelf processes in the coastal fishes of the Southwestern Atlantic Coastal System (34°–41°S). Two winter and five spring research surveys in the SACS were analyzed and the Perry and Smith methodology applied to determine the seasonal association of depth, temperature and salinity and the abundance of apron ray. The season with the highest inter‐annual spatial distribution variation was related to the main external force on environmental conditions (e.g. wind, atmospheric temperature, and Río de la Plata discharge and shelf water intrusion). Apron ray showed persistent habitat selection, with the water temperature (<16°C) and salinity (higher than 31.8) being environmental factors most influencing its spatial distribution. In the spring, the apron ray spatial distribution showed higher inter‐annual variation than in winter. The persistence of the spring habitat selection of D. tschudii suggests that its onshore‐offshore as well as north‐south movements are influenced by water mass movements forced by a combination of local conditions (wind) and regional‐scale weather patterns (e.g. strength of the Malvinas Current). This study provides evidence on the importance of considering environmental conditions on the spatial distribution of apron ray and improves the knowledge on interactions between estuarine and shelf water dynamics as determinants of the spatial distribution of a coastal fish species in the Southwest Atlantic Coastal System.     

Microhabitat choice and its role in determining the distribution of the reptile tick Amblyomma vikirri

Abstract A newly described tick species, Amblyomma vikirri, infests two lizard species in the Flinders Ranges of South Australia. Although one of the hosts, Tiliqua rugosa, has a wide distribution, the tick distribution is restricted to a subset of rocky habitats where the other host, Egernia stokesii, lives. Experiments were conducted with unfed ticks, the stage when the tick is waiting for a host and is susceptible to desiccation. Amblyomma vikirri had a significantly stronger preference for rock microhabitats than two other tick species (Aponomma hydrosauri and Amblyomma limbatum) that infest T. rugosa. Unfed Amb. vikirri were also more active than the other two species, and more likely to be in the upper pan of the substrate. At warm temperatures, larvae of Amb. vikirri survived for shorter periods under desiccation stress than larvae of the other two species, although as nymphs Amb. vikirri survived as well or better. The rock crevice microhabitat experienced lower maximum temperatures than other potential, non-rock refuge sites. The behaviour of Amb. vikirri, its susceptibility to desiccation in the larval stage and the relatively benign conditions in the rock crevices may act together to prevent Amb. vikirri establishing populations beyond rock habitat.     

Parasitism and the burrowing depth of the beach hopper Talorchestia quoyana (Amphipoda: Talitridae)

Talitrid amphipods spend their days burrowed in sand to avoid predators as well as desiccation and heat stress, although other factors may influence burrowing depth. We investigated the potential role of mermithid nematode parasites in determining burrowing depth in the amphipod Talorchestia quoyana. Mermithids grow as parasites inside amphipods until they reach adulthood, when they must emerge from their host into moist sand to complete their life cycle and reproduce. When allowed to burrow to a depth of their choice in experimental situations, large amphipods burrowed deeper than small ones. In addition, deep-burrowing amphipods were more likely to be infected by mermithid nematodes, and harboured longer worms, on average, than amphipods that burrowed close to the sand surface. This last result is not an artefact of the larger size of deep-burrowing amphipods: the increase in worm length with increasing depth was found after statistical correction for host size. In other words, amphipods that burrowed deeper harboured longer worms than expected based on their body size, whereas those that stayed near the surface of the sand column harboured worms shorter than one would expect based on host size. This implies that the greater burrowing depth of infected amphipods is a consequence, and not a cause, of infection. These results emphasize the importance of parasitism as a determinant of the small-scale spatial distribution of their hosts.     

Seed viability in declining populations of Caladenia rigida (Orchidaceae): are small populations doomed?

Despite comparatively good rates of pollination and seed production, some populations of the endangered terrestrial orchid Caladenia rigida continue to decline. To determine whether seed quality may be limiting reproductive potential, we assessed seed viability among declining populations of C.?rigida (in the southern part of its distribution) and among populations that are regarded as stable (in the northern part of its distribution). We also compared differences in seed viability to plant traits, population size and habitat characteristics (soil properties, canopy cover, presence of proximate vegetation). Seed capsules from southern populations were significantly smaller, with only 9% of seeds being viable, compared to 36% in capsules from northern populations. Soil phosphorus concentrations differed between regions, but other habitat characteristics did not correlate with seed viability. Using calculations based on seedling recruitment data from other Caladenia species, we predict that seed output is insufficient to ensure the long-term persistence of the smallest C.?rigida populations.     

Response of fishes and aquatic habitats to sand-bed stream restoration using large woody debris

Effects of habitat rehabilitation of Little Topashaw Creek, a sinuous, sand-bed stream draining 37 km² in northwest Mississippi are described. The rehabilitation project consisted of placing 72 large woody debris structures along eroding concave banks and planting 4000 willow cuttings in sandbars. Response was measured by monitoring flow, channel geometry, physical aquatic habitat, and fish populations. Initially, debris structures reduced high flow velocities at concave bank toes, preventing further erosion and inducing deposition. Physical response during the first year following construction included creation of sand berms along eroding banks and slight increases in base flow water width and depth. Fish collections showed assemblages typical of incising streams within the region, but minor initial responses to debris addition were evident. Progressive failure of the structures and renewed erosion were observed during the second year after construction.     

Habitat requirements of the Alpine marmot<Emphasis Type="Italic">Marmota marmota</Emphasis> in re-introduction areas of the Eastern Italian Alps. Formulation and validation of habitat suitability models

I analyzed the habitat selection of two Alpine marmotsMarmota marmota (Linnaeus, 1758) populations (A and B) re-introduced in the Friulian Dolomites Natural Park (Eastern Italian Alps) in 1977 and 1983 respectively. Population A showed a higher density of family units than the more recently introduced and still increasing population B. I mapped winter burrows and I conferred proportions of usage of habitat types with their availability by the Jacobs index. Population B positively selected fewer types of habitat than population A, and particularly selected those habitat types more strongly selected by A. Through stepwise discriminant function analysis and oneway ANOVA, I analyzed the characteristics of the winter burrow surroundings, by splitting up the two study areas into sample squares covering 1 ha each. The importance of the alpine meadows and pastures was subordinate to the presence of rocks, especially in the pastures. Comparing the results obtained separately for the two populations, the more recent and less dense population showed a more restrictive habitat and slope selection, in accordance with the ideal free distribution theory. In order to validate the habitat suitability model obtained by discriminant analysis I applied it to two other populations of Alpine marmots present in FDNP and in the Julian Prealps Natural Park.     

Gopher Tortoise Response to Habitat Management by Prescribed Burning

ABSTRACT As quality of forested habitat declines from altered fire regimes, gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) often move into ruderal areas to the detriment of the animal and land manager. We evaluated effects of a dormant-and-growing-season prescribed fire on habitat and gopher tortoise use of degraded longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) forests surrounding military training areas. We burned 4 of 8 sites in winter 2001–2002 and again in April 2003. Changes in vegetation measured during 2001–2004 indicated that burn treatments did not increase herbaceous vegetation. Similarly, movement patterns, burrow usage, and home range of tortoises radiotracked from 2002–2004 did not differ between treatments. Woody cover initially was reduced in the forests postburn, and we found more new burrows in burned forest sites. Once shrub cover was reduced, tortoises started using forested habitat that had become overgrown. However, shrub reduction may be temporary, as woody stem densities increased postburn. Thus, the one-time use of fire to manage tortoise habitat may not rapidly restore the open canopy, sparse woody midstory, and abundant herbaceous vegetation that this species requires. Repeated prescribed fires or additional management techniques may be needed for complete restoration.     

The Perfect Burrow,but for What? Identifying Local Habitat Conditions Promoting the Presence of the Host and Vector Species in the Kazakh Plague System

Introduction

The wildlife plague system in the Pre-Balkhash desert of Kazakhstan has been a subject of study for many years. Much progress has been made in generating a method of predicting outbreaks of the disease (infection by the gram negative bacterium Yersinia pestis) but existing methods are not yet accurate enough to inform public health planning. The present study aimed to identify characteristics of individual mammalian host (Rhombomys opimus) burrows related to and potentially predictive of the presence of R.opimus and the dominant flea vectors (Xenopsylla spp.).

Methods

Over four seasons, burrow characteristics, their current occupancy status, and flea and tick burden of the occupants were recorded in the field. A second data set was generated of long term occupancy trends by recording the occupancy status of specific burrows over multiple occasions. Generalised linear mixed models were constructed to identify potential burrow properties predictive of either occupancy or flea burden.

Results

At the burrow level, it was identified that a burrow being occupied by Rhombomys, and remaining occupied, were both related to the characteristics of the sediment in which the burrow was constructed. The flea burden of Rhombomys in a burrow was found to be related to the tick burden. Further larger scale properties were also identified as being related to both Rhombomys and flea presence, including latitudinal position and the season.

Conclusions

Therefore, in advancing our current predictions of plague in Kazakhstan, we must consider the landscape at this local level to increase our accuracy in predicting the dynamics of gerbil and flea populations. Furthermore this demonstrates that in other zoonotic systems, it may be useful to consider the distribution and location of suitable habitat for both host and vector species at this fine scale to accurately predict future epizootics.     

Trout induces a shift from preferred habitat types for indigenous species: the example of the indigenous catfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Amphilius uranoscopus</Emphasis> (Pfeffer, 1889), on an African montane plateau

This study investigated the impact of introduced rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, on the distribution and feeding of mountain catfish, Amphilius uranoscopus, on the Nyika Plateau, Malawi. Twenty-four sites were sampled over three different periods in three rivers. Fish habitat units were identified as separate riffle or pool, about 100 m in length, at each site. Each habitat unit was sampled for fish, invertebrates and physical habitat characteristics. Twenty four and 20 habitat units were sampled, respectively, from sites with catfish and sites with trout and catfish. In the absence of trout, the mountain catfish was associated with all depth ranges, with strong preference to shallow and moderate depth, and moderate to fast flow on coarse substratum type (gravel, pebble and boulder). In the presence of trout, the catfish was frequently associated with very shallow depth and slow flow. In its natural habitat, the catfish fed randomly, but preferred the most abundant invertebrate taxa, especially black fly larvae (Simuliidae). In the presence of trout, the catfish preferred mostly the chironomids. The preference by catfish for Simuliidae, also preferred by trout, was less in the trout streams than in its natural habitat. The prey taxa in the catfish stream were diverse, and consisted of large invertebrate predators. Trout streams were dominated by few prey taxa, especially black flies and chironomids. The catfish of the Nyika Plateau may represent genetically unique populations in southern Africa. Introductions of trout into rivers where they currently do not occur on the Nyika should be prevented in order to maintain the genetic diversity of the Amphilius uranoscopus species complex. Handling editor: J. A. Cambray     

Contrasting Patterns of Demography and Population Viability Among Gopher Tortoise Populations in Alabama

Population viability analyses are useful tools to predict abundance and extinction risk for imperiled species. In southeastern North America, the federally threatened gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) is a keystone species in the diverse and imperiled longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem, and researchers have suggested that tortoise populations are declining and characterized by high extinction risk. We report results from a 30-year demographic study of gopher tortoises in southern Alabama (1991–2020), where 3 populations have been stable and 3 others have declined. To better understand the demographic vital rates associated with stable and declining tortoise populations, we used a multi-state hierarchical mark-recapture model to estimate sex- and stage-specific patterns of demographic vital rates at each population. We then built a predictive population model to project population dynamics and evaluate extinction risk in a population viability context. Population structure did not change significantly in stable populations, but juveniles became less abundant in declining populations over 30 years. Apparent survival varied by age, sex, and site; adults had higher survival than juveniles, but female survival was substantially lower in declining populations than in stable ones. Using simulations, we predicted that stable populations with high female survival would persist over the next 100 years but sites with lower female survival would decline, become male-biased, and be at high risk of extirpation. Stable populations were most sensitive to changes in apparent survival of adult females. Because local populations varied greatly in vital rates, our analysis improves upon previous demographic models for northern populations of gopher tortoises by accounting for population-level variation in demographic patterns and, counter to previous model predictions, suggests that small tortoise populations can persist when habitat is managed effectively. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.