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1.
Cagienard A Griot C Mellor PS Denison E Stärk KD 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2006,20(2):239-247
Switzerland is historically recognized by the Office Internationale des Epizooties as free from bluetongue disease (BT) because of its latitude and climate. With bluetongue virus (BTV) moving north from the Mediterranean, an entomological survey was conducted in Switzerland in 2003 to assess the potential of the BTV vectors present. A total of 39 cattle farms located in three geographical regions, the Ticino region, the Western region and the region of the Grisons, were monitored during the vector season. Farms were located in areas at high risk of vector introduction and establishment based on the following characteristics: annual average temperature > 12.5 degrees C, average annual humidity >or= 60%, cattle farm. Onderstepoort black light traps were operated at the cattle farms generally for one night in July and one night in September. A total of 56 collections of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) were identified morphologically. Only one single individual of Culicoides (Avaritia) imicola, the major Old World vector of BTV, was found in July 2003 in the Ticino region, one of the southernmost regions of Switzerland. In the absence of further specimens of C. imicola from Switzerland it is suggested that this individual may be a vagrant transported by wind from regions to the south of the country where populations of this species are known to occur. Alternative potential BTV vectors of the Culicoides (Culicoides) pulicaris and Culicoides (Avaritia) obsoletus complexes were abundant in all sampled regions with individual catches exceeding 70 000 midges per trap night. 相似文献
2.
MARÍA R. SÁENZ ELLIS C. GREINER The Regional Bluetongue Team 《Medical and veterinary entomology》1994,8(1):15-19
Abstract. In 1991, as part of an epidemiological study of bluetongue viruses (BTV) in the Central American and Caribbean region, eight farms located in Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama and Puerto Rico were sampled for Culicoides spp. attacking cattle. Using cattle bait, 3884 biting midges were collected with an electric aspirator during both crepuscular periods. The predominant species captured was Culicoides insignis Lutz (95%), followed by C.furens (Poey) (3.4%), C.filarifer Hoffman/ C.ocumarensis Ortiz (0.9%), C.lahillei (Iches) (0.7%), C.arubae Fox and Hoffman (<0.1%) and C.gorgasi Wirth and Blanton (<0.1%). Blood-engorged specimens from some of these species were collected and comprised: 18% of all C.insignis , 36% of C.furens , 37% of filarifer/ocumarensis and 25% of C.lahillei. No engorged C.arubae or C.gorgasi were caught. These results confirm earlier findings pointing to C.insignis, C.furens and C.filarifer/ ocumarensis as potential vectors of BTV in the region. 相似文献
3.
Following the bluetongue (BT) outbreaks in Tunisia from 1999 to 2002, BTV (bluetongue virus) serotype 2 was isolated; however, no entomological investigation was performed. In the study presented here, we assessed the Culicoides species populations (particularly C. imicola) in proximity to the BT outbreaks locations, both as a retrospective analysis and to update the list of Culicoides species present in Tunisia. The insects were caught using light traps and the species identification was performed according to the standard entomological methods. This study reveaaled the presence of significant numbers of C. imicola in all the tested locations. In addition, we reported a new Culicoides species for the Tunisian fauna C. punctatus. 相似文献
4.
Field-collected South African Culicoides species (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) were fed on sheep blood containing bluetongue virus (BTV) represented by 13 low-passage reference serotypes: -1, -2, -4, -6, -7, -8, -9, -10, -11, -12, -13, -16 and -19. After 10 days of extrinsic incubation at 23.5 degrees C, of the 13 serotypes used, seven were recovered from C. (Avaritia) imicola Kieffer and 11 from C. (A.) bolitinos Meiswinkel. Virus recovery rates and the mean titres for most serotypes were significantly higher in C. bolitinos than in C. imicola. In addition, BTV was recovered from three non-Avaritia Culicoides species, namely C. (Remmia) enderleini Cornet & Brunhes (BTV-9), C. (Hoffmania) milnei Austen (BTV-4) and C. (H.) zuluensis de Meillon (BTV-16). No virus could be recovered from 316 individuals representing a further 14 Culicoides species. In Culicoides species fed on blood containing similar or identical virus titres of distinct BTV serotypes, significant differences were found in virus recovery rates. The results of this study confirm the higher vector competence of C. bolitinos compared with C. imicola. 相似文献
5.
C. CALVETE R. ESTRADA M. A. MIRANDA R. DEL RIO D. BORRÁS F. J. BELDRON A. MARTÍNEZ A. J. CALVO J. LUCIENTES 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2010,24(2):169-175
The protection of livestock against Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) using physical barriers or chemically treated barriers is difficult owing to the small size of these biting midges and animal welfare concerns associated with the reduction of air flow. Culicoides imicola Kieffer is the main bluetongue virus vector in the Mediterranean basin, including the southern Iberian peninsula, where livestock is mainly housed in open pens or sheds which offer no physical protection against C. imicola. In this study we assessed the efficacy of surrounding yearling ewe pens with a canvas barrier or a cypermethrin‐treated canvas barrier in reducing the entry of Culicoides spp. and C. imicola. Analyses were based on comparisons of Culicoides catches in traps in pens with and without barriers, and in traps located outside pens. Although there was no clear reduction in the abundance of Culicoides other than C. imicola in pens with either barrier, the C. imicola presence was markedly reduced by the insecticide‐treated barrier compared with the untreated barrier; the latter did not reduce the abundance of this species in pens. Estimates of the protection conferred against C. imicola by the treated barrier differed depending on whether catch comparisons were based on outside traps or on traps located inside no‐barrier pens. The results suggest that the use of insecticide‐treated barriers may reduce contact between livestock and C. imicola in open areas or sheds. More research is necessary to assess the degree of protection as a function of barrier height, C. imicola abundance, and the size of the area to be protected. 相似文献
6.
M. BAYLIS H. PARKIN K. KREPPEL S. CARPENTER P. S. MELLOR K. M. MCINTYRE 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2010,24(1):38-45
The housing of animals at night was investigated as a possible means of protecting them from attack by Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the vectors of bluetongue. Light-trap catches of Culicoides were compared inside and outside animal housing, in the presence and absence of cattle. A three-replicate, 4 × 4 Latin square design was used at four farms in Bala, north Wales, over 12 nights in May and June 2007, and the experiment repeated in October. In the two studies, respectively, >70 000 and >4500 Culicoides were trapped, of which 93% and 86%, respectively, were of the Culicoides obsoletus group. Across the four farms, in May and June, the presence of cattle increased catches of C. obsoletus by 2.3 times, and outside traps caught 6.5 times more insects than inside traps. Similar patterns were apparent in October, but the difference between inside and outside catches was reduced. Catches were strongly correlated with minimum temperature and maximum wind speed and these two variables explained a large amount of night-to-night variation in catch. Outside catches were reduced, to a greater extent than inside catches, by colder minimum temperatures and higher maximum wind speeds. These conditions occur more frequently in October than in May and June, thereby suppressing outside catches more than inside catches, and reducing the apparent degree of exophily of C. obsoletus in autumn. The results suggest that the risk of animals receiving bites from C. obsoletus is reduced by housing at both times of year and the benefit would be greatest on warm, still nights when outside catches are at their greatest. 相似文献
7.
W. K. REEVES K. H. S. PEIRIS E.-J. SCHOLTE R. A. WIRTZ F. E. DOWELL 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2010,24(1):32-37
Age-grading of insects is important in the control and monitoring of both insect populations and vector-borne diseases. Microscopy and morphological techniques exist to age-grade most blood-feeding flies, but these techniques are laborious, often destructive to the insects, and slow. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) can be automated and is a non-destructive technique for age-grading. We applied NIRS techniques to age-grade females of the biting midge, Culicoides sonorensis Wirth & Jones (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), the vector of bluetongue and other arboviruses in North America. Female flies of five known age cohorts (1, 3, 6, 9 and 12 days post-emergence) from three laboratory colonies were used. The data indicate that NIRS can be used to differentiate age groups of C. sonorensis . 相似文献
8.
A preliminary study was undertaken to investigate how the number of sheep below a light‐suction trap affects the number of female Culicoides obsoletus Meigen (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) caught. As the number of sheep increased from zero to three, the number of midges caught increased, but there appeared to be no further increase when six sheep were used. The lack of increase between three and six sheep is attributable to different activity rates on certain nights, perhaps in response to weather, and suggests, therefore, that catches in light traps increase linearly with sheep numbers, at least for small host numbers. 相似文献
9.
Torina A Caracappa S Mellor PS Baylis M Purse BV 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2004,18(2):81-89
During the recent Mediterranean epizootic of bluetongue, an extensive programme of serological and vector (Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae)) surveillance was carried out across Sicily. This paper presents the analysis of 911 light trap catches collected at the times of peak Culicoides abundance (summer to autumn 2000-2002) in 269 sites, in order to produce detailed maps of the spatial distribution of the main European vector, Culicoides imicola Kieffer and that of potential novel vectors. Whereas C. imicola was found at only 12% of sites, potential novel vectors, Culicoides obsoletus group Meigen, Culicoides pulicaris Linnaeus and Culicoides newsteadi Austen were present at over 50% of sites. However, the spatial distribution of C. imicola showed the closest correspondence to that of the 2000 and 2001 bluetongue (BT) outbreaks and its presence and abundance were significant predictors of the probability of an outbreak, suggesting that it was the main vector during these years. Although C. imicola may have played a role in transmission in several sites near Paternó, it was absent from the majority of sites at which outbreaks occurred in 2002 and from all sites in the province of Messina. All three potential novel vectors were widespread across sites at which outbreaks occurred during 2002. Of these, C. newsteadi was an unlikely candidate, as it was significantly less prevalent in outbreak vs. non-outbreak sites in Messina. It is hypothesized that the yearly distribution and intensity of outbreaks is directly attributable to the distribution and abundance of the vectors involved in transmission during each year. When C. imicola operated as the main vector in 2000 and 2001, outbreaks were few in number and were restricted to coastal regions due to low abundance and prevalence of this species. In 2002, it is hypothesized that BTV transmission was handed over to more prevalent and abundant novel vector species, leading to numerous and widespread outbreaks and probably to overwintering of the virus between 2001 and 2002. Based on catch ranges in outbreak vs. non-outbreak sites, it is tentatively suggested that nightly catches of 400 or more C. obsoletus and 150 or more C. pulicaris allow BTV transmission at a site, and provide a strategy for a fuller examination of the relationship between BTV transmission and the abundance and distribution of different vector species. 相似文献
10.
Eagles D Deveson T Walker PJ Zalucki MP Durr P 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2012,26(3):334-340
The introduction of novel bluetongue serotypes and genotypes into northern Australia is considered possible via the long-distance windborne dispersal of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vectors from Southeast Asia. Initial findings from simulation modelling of potential dispersal over a 15-year period revealed that the greatest risk for incursion of windborne Culicoides from the island of Timor into northern Australia occurs during December-March. The regions at greatest risk for incursion include the top end of the Northern Territory and the Kimberley region in Western Australia, but there is potential for more widespread dispersal into northern Australia based on Timor as the putative source. The establishment of a more pathogenic strain of the virus, or of a novel Culicoides vector introduced by such inter-continental dispersal events, could dramatically alter Australia's current bluetongue disease status. 相似文献
11.
Purse BV Nedelchev N Georgiev G Veleva E Boorman J Denison E Veronesi E Carpenter S Baylis M Mellor PS 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2006,20(3):335-344
Surveillance of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midges was carried out between 2001 and 2003, at 119 sites within a 50 x 50-km grid distributed across Bulgaria, using light trap collections around the time of peak adult midge abundance. Sentinel and ad hoc serum surveillance of hosts susceptible to bluetongue infection was carried out at around 300 sites between 1999 and 2003. Following the initial incursion of bluetongue virus 9 (BTV-9) into Bourgas province in 1999, affecting 85 villages along the southern border, a further 76 villages were affected along the western border in 2001, with outbreaks extending as far north as 43.6 degrees N. The BTV-9 strain in circulation was found to have a low pathogenicity for Bulgarian sheep populations, with less than 2% of susceptible individuals becoming sick and seroconversions detected up to 30 km from recorded outbreaks in the south. The major Old World vector Culicoides imicola Kieffer was not detected among over 70,000 Culicoides identified in summer collections, suggesting that BTV-9 transmission in Bulgaria was primarily carried out by indigenous European vectors. The most likely candidates, the Palaearctic species complexes - the Culicoides obsoletus Meigen and C. pulicaris L. complexes - were widespread and abundant across the whole country. The C. obsoletus complex represented 75% of all individuals trapped in summer and occurred in high catch sizes (up to 15,000 individuals per night) but was not found across all outbreak sites, indicating that both Palearctic complexes probably played a role in transmission. Within the C. pulicaris complex, only C. pulicaris s.s., C. punctatus Meigen and C. newsteadi Austen were sufficiently abundant and prevalent to have been widely involved in transmission, whilst within the C. obsoletus complex most trapped males were C. obsoletus s.s. Adult vectors were found to be largely absent from sites in west Bulgaria for a period of at least 3 months over winter, which, taken along with the spatiotemporal pattern of outbreaks in the region between years, indicates the virus may be overwintering here by an alternative mechanism - either by covert persistence in the vertebrate host or possibly by persistence in larval stages of the vector. 相似文献
12.
An outbreak of the livestock viral disease bluetongue (BT) was detected during September and October 2000 in the Balearic Islands, Spain. Due to the lack of information about the species of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) reported in the affected area, six farms in Majorca, four in Minorca and one in Ibiza were selected to carry out surveillance of Culicoides adults using light traps. Here, for the first time, we report the presence in the Balearic Islands of Culicoides imicola Keiffer, the main vector of BT, and the Culicoides obsoletus Meigen group. 相似文献
13.
S. CASATI V. RACLOZ J. C. DELÉCOLLE M. KUHN A. MATHIS C. GRIOT K. D. C. STÄRK T. VANZETTI 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2009,23(2):93-98
In the past decade, there have been regular outbreaks of bluetongue (BT) in many parts of Europe. Owing to the presence of BT disease and its vectors in countries adjacent to Switzerland, an initial entomological survey was conducted in 2003, which established the presence of several midges of the genus Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Subsequently, a sentinel herd monitoring system was established with the primary entomological aim being the determination and further study of Culicoides population compositions. Insects were collected in 2005 and 2006 at seven sentinel herd sites in the south of Switzerland (canton of Ticino) near the border of Italy, using Onderstepoort-type light traps. This region is botanically and zoologically similar to the Mediterranean and is one of the warmest and most humid areas of the country, hence it is considered a potential access path for BT disease into Switzerland. Collections were made at four cattle farms, two equestrian centres and one goat farm. Sites were sampled four times per month from June to October. Traps were operated from dusk until dawn and samples were collected monthly for analysis through microscopy as well as a Culicoides imicola -specific PCR. Results confirmed the absence of C. imicola (Kieffer) and demonstrated that the potential BT virus vectors are highly abundant, notably: Culicoides obsoletus (Meigen), Culicoides scoticus (Downes & Kettle) and Culicoides dewulfi (Goetghebuer) subgenus Avaritia and Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) subgenus Culicoides . These findings expand the current knowledge of Culicoides population composition in the southern part of the Switzerland. Culicoides cataneii (Clastrier), Culicoides flavipulicaris (Dzhafarov), Culicoides indistinctus (Khalaf), Culicoides nubeculosus (Meigen) and species of the Grisescens complex were reported for the first time in Switzerland. 相似文献
14.
Capela R Purse BV Pena I Wittman EJ Margarita Y Capela M Romão L Mellor PS Baylis M 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2003,17(2):165-177
Surveillance of Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) biting midge vectors was carried out at 87 sites within a 50 x 50 km grid distributed across Portugal, using light trap collections at the time of peak midge abundance. Culicoides imicola (Kieffer) made up 66% of the 55 937 Culicoides in these summer collections. It was highly abundant in the central eastern portion of Portugal, between 37 degrees 5' N and 41 degrees 5' N, and in a band across to the Lisbon peninsula (at around 38 degrees 5' N). Of all the complexes, its distribution was most consistent with that of previous outbreaks of Culicoides-borne disease, suggesting that it may remain the major vector in Portugal. Its distribution was also broadly consistent with that predicted by a recent climate-driven model validating the use of remote sensing datasets for modelling of Culicoides distribution. Adult C. imicola were found to have overwintered at 12 of 20 sites re-surveyed in winter but it did so in very low numbers. Culicoides obsoletus (Meigen) and Culicoides pulicaris (Linnaeus) complex midges were widespread despite their low summer abundance. The observed coincidence of high abundances of C. imicola and high abundances of C. pulicaris in summer lead us to suggest that C. imicola could bring African horse sickness virus or bluetongue virus into contact with C. pulicaris and the latter complex, together with C. obsoletus, could then transmit these viruses across much wider areas of Europe. The fact that adult C. pulicaris are present in high abundances in winter may provide a mechanism by which these viruses can overwinter in these areas. 相似文献
15.
Purse BV Falconer D Sullivan MJ Carpenter S Mellor PS Piertney SB Mordue Luntz AJ Albon S Gunn GJ Blackwell A 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2012,26(2):168-177
Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) vector a wide variety of internationally important arboviral pathogens of livestock and represent a widespread biting nuisance. This study investigated the influence of landscape, host and remotely-sensed climate factors on local abundance of livestock-associated species in Scotland, within a hierarchical generalized linear model framework. The Culicoides obsoletus group and the Culicoides pulicaris group accounted for 56% and 41%, respectively, of adult females trapped. Culicoides impunctatus Goetghebuer and C. pulicaris s.s. Linnaeus were the most abundant and widespread species in the C. pulicaris group (accounting for 29% and 10%, respectively, of females trapped). Abundance models performed well for C. impunctatus, Culicoides deltus Edwards and Culicoides punctatus Meigen (adjusted R(2) : 0.59-0.70), but not for C. pulicaris s.s. (adjusted R(2) : 0.36) and the C. obsoletus group (adjusted R(2) : 0.08). Local-scale abundance patterns were best explained by models combining host, landscape and climate factors. The abundance of C. impunctatus was negatively associated with cattle density, but positively associated with pasture cover, consistent with this species' preference in the larval stage for lightly grazed, wet rush pasture. Predicted abundances of this species varied widely among farms even over short distances (less than a few km). Modelling approaches that may facilitate the more accurate prediction of local abundance patterns for a wider range of Culicoides species are discussed. 相似文献
16.
A. MAGLIANO P. SCARAMOZZINO S. RAVAGNAN F. MONTARSI G. DA ROLD G. CINCINELLI A. MONI P. SILVESTRI A. CARVELLI C. DE LIBERATO 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2018,32(1):70-77
Indoor and outdoor winter activity of Culicoides spp. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in central Italy was investigated in order to evaluate whether indoor activity might account for the overwintering of bluetongue virus, as has been hypothesized by some authors. Weekly Culicoides collections were performed at three farms over three consecutive winter seasons. At each farm, two black‐light traps were operated simultaneously, indoors and outdoors. Culicoides were identified using both morphological and molecular means. The Culicoides obsoletus group accounted for 98.2% of sampled specimens. Within this group, C. obsoletus s.s. accounted for 56.8% and Culicoides scoticus for 43.2% of samples. Nulliparous, parous and engorged females were caught throughout the entire winter, both indoors and outdoors. At times, indoor catch sizes outnumbered outdoor collections. A significant inverse correlation was found between minimum temperature and the proportion of indoor Culicoides of the total midge catch, thus indicating that lower outdoor temperatures drive Culicoides midges indoors. High rates of engorged females were recorded indoors, possibly as the result of the propensity of C. obsoletus females to feed indoors. Higher proportions of parous females were found in indoor than in outdoor catches, indicating higher survival rates indoors and, consequently, higher vectorial capacities of midges sheltering indoors compared with those remaining outdoors. 相似文献
17.
E. PETTERSSON S. BENSCH M. ANDER J. CHIRICO R. SIGVALD R. IGNELL 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2013,27(1):104-112
Investigations of host preferences in haematophagous insects, including Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), are critical in order to assess transmission routes of vector‐borne diseases. In this study, we collected and morphologically identified 164 blood‐engorged Culicoides females caught in both light traps and permanent 12‐m high suction traps during 2008–2010 in Sweden. Molecular analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene in the biting midges was performed to verify species classification, discern phylogenetic relationships and uncover possible cryptic species. Bloodmeal analysis using universal vertebrate cytochrome b primers revealed a clear distinction in host selection between mammalophilic and ornithophilic Culicoides species. Host sequences found matches in horse (n = 59), sheep (n = 39), cattle (n = 26), Eurasian elk (n = 1) and 10 different bird species (n = 18). We identified 15 Culicoides species previously recorded in Scandinavia and four additional species haplotypes that were distinctly different from the described species. All ornithophilic individuals (n = 23) were caught exclusively in the suction traps, as were, interestingly, almost all mammalophilic species (n = 41), indicating that many biting midge species may be able to cover long distances after completing a bloodmeal. These results add new information on the composition of Culicoides species and their host preferences and their potential long‐distance dispersal while blood‐engorged. 相似文献
18.
Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors of a number of globally important arboviruses that affect livestock, including bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus and the recently emerged Schmallenberg virus. In this study, a model using embryonated chicken eggs (ECEs) was utilized to undertake vector competence studies of Australian Culicoides spp. for 13 laboratory‐adapted or wild‐type virus strains of BTV. A total of 7393 Culicoides brevitarsis were reared from bovine dung, and 3364 Culicoides were induced to feed from ECEs infected with different strains of BTV. Of those, 911 (27%) survived the putative extrinsic incubation period of 9–12 days. In some trials, virus was also transmitted onward to uninfected ECEs, completing the transmission cycle. This model does not rely on the use of colonized midges and has the capacity to assess the vector competence of field‐collected insects with strains of virus that have not previously been passaged in laboratory culture systems. There is also potential for this model to be used in investigations of the competence of Culicoides spp. for other arboviruses. 相似文献
19.
Field-collected South African Culicoides (Diptera, Ceratopogonidae) were fed on sheep blood containing 16 live-attenuated vaccine strains of bluetongue virus (BTV) comprising serotypes -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7, -8, -9, -10, -11, -12, -13, -14, -16 and -19. After 10 days extrinsic incubation at 23.5 degrees C, 11 and seven of the 16 BTV serotypes used were recovered from Culicoides (Avaritia) imicola Kieffer and Culicoides (A.) bolitinos Meiswinkel, respectively. One serotype was also recovered from Culicoides (Remmia) enderleini Cornet & Brunhes. Bluetongue virus recovery rates and the mean titres for most serotypes were significantly higher in C. bolitinos than in C. imicola. Significant differences were found in virus recovery rates from Culicoides species fed on blood containing similar or identical virus titres of different BTV serotypes. In addition, we demonstrated that a single passage of live-attenuated BTV-1, -2, -4, -9 and -16 through the insect vector, followed by passaging in insect cells, did not alter its infectivity for C. imicola and that the oral susceptibility of C. imicola to the attenuated vaccine strains of BTV-1, -4, -9 and -16 remained similar for at least three consecutive seasons. 相似文献
20.
Purse BV Tatem AJ Caracappa S Rogers DJ Mellor PS Baylis M Torina A 《Medical and veterinary entomology》2004,18(2):90-101
Surveillance data from 268 sites in Sicily are used to develop climatic models for prediction of the distribution of the main European bluetongue virus (BTV) vector Culicoides imicola Kieffer (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) and of potential novel vectors, Culicoides pulicaris Linnaeus, Culicoides obsoletus group Meigen and Culicoides newsteadi Austen. The models containing the 'best' climatic predictors of distribution for each species, were selected from combinations of 40 temporally Fourier-processed remotely sensed variables and altitude at a 1 km spatial resolution using discriminant analysis. Kappa values of around 0.6 for all species models indicated substantial levels of agreement between model predictions and observed data. Whilst the distributions of C. obsoletus group and C. newsteadi were predicted by temperature variables, those of C. pulicaris and C. imicola were determined mainly by normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a variable correlated with soil moisture and vegetation biomass and productivity. These models were used to predict species presence in unsampled pixels across Italy and for C. imicola across Europe and North Africa. The predicted continuous presence of C. pulicaris along the appenine mountains, from north to south Italy, suggests BTV transmission may be possible in a large proportion of this region and that seasonal transhumance (seasonal movement of livestock between upland and lowland pastures) even in C. imicola-free areas should not generally be considered safe. The predicted distribution of C. imicola distribution shows substantial agreement with observed surveillance data from Greece and Iberia (including the Balearics) and parts of mainland Italy (Lazio, Tuscany and areas of the Ionian coast) but is generally much more restricted than the observed distribution (in Sardinia, Corsica and Morocco). The low number of presence sites for C. imicola in Sicily meant that only a restricted range of potential C. imicola habitats were included in the training set and that predictions could only be made within this range. Future modelling exercises will use abundance data collected according to a standardized protocol across the Mediterranean and, for Sicily in particular, should include non-climatic environmental variables that may influence breeding site suitability such as soil type. 相似文献