Combining capture–recapture data and known ages allows estimation of age‐dependent survival rates

In many animal populations, demographic parameters such as survival and recruitment vary markedly with age, as do parameters related to sampling, such as capture probability. Failing to account for such variation can result in biased estimates of population‐level rates. However, estimating age‐dependent survival rates can be challenging because ages of individuals are rarely known unless tagging is done at birth. For many species, it is possible to infer age based on size. In capture–recapture studies of such species, it is possible to use a growth model to infer the age at first capture of individuals. We show how to build estimates of age‐dependent survival into a capture–mark–recapture model based on data obtained in a capture–recapture study. We first show how estimates of age based on length increments closely match those based on definitive aging methods. In simulated analyses, we show that both individual ages and age‐dependent survival rates estimated from simulated data closely match true values. With our approach, we are able to estimate the age‐specific apparent survival rates of Murray and trout cod in the Murray River, Australia. Our model structure provides a flexible framework within which to investigate various aspects of how survival varies with age and will have extensions within a wide range of ecological studies of animals where age can be estimated based on size.     

Validation of mark‐recapture population estimates for invasive common carp,Cyprinus carpio,in Lake Crescent,Tasmania

A mark‐recapture study based on the Petersen method was implemented in 1998 to estimate the abundance of the invasive common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., in Lake Crescent, Tasmania. Multiple gear types were employed to minimise capture bias, with multiple capture and recapture events providing an opportunity to compute and compare Petersen and Schnabel estimates. A single Petersen estimate on recapture data and two Schnabel estimates – one each on mark (forward‐Schnabel estimate) and recapture (reverse‐Schnabel estimate) data – were conducted. An independent long‐term double tag study facilitated estimation of the annual natural mortality. Subsequent fish‐down of the population suggests that, in all likelihood, the carp have been eradicated from the lake, providing an unprecedented opportunity to verify the forward population estimates carried out in 1998. Results suggest that all three estimates were close to the true population size, with the reverse‐Schnabel estimate being the most accurate and within 1% of the true population in this relatively large lake (～2365 ha). Greater accuracy of the reverse‐Schnabel approach can be attributed to either minimised fish behavioural (i.e. gear susceptibility or avoidance) or computational bias associated with the forward‐Schnabel and Petersen approaches, respectively. While the original estimates served as a guide in eradication of carp from the lake, the ultimate validation provides a reliable framework for abundance estimation of this invasive fish in relatively large water bodies elsewhere.     

REPLICATED ORIGIN OF FEMALE‐BIASED ADULT SEX RATIO IN INTRODUCED POPULATIONS OF THE TRINIDADIAN GUPPY (POECILIA RETICULATA)

There are many theoretical and empirical studies explaining variation in offspring sex ratio but relatively few that explain variation in adult sex ratio. Adult sex ratios are important because biased sex ratios can be a driver of sexual selection and will reduce effective population size, affecting population persistence and shapes how populations respond to natural selection. Previous work on guppies (Poecilia reticulata) gives mixed results, usually showing a female‐biased adult sex ratio. However, a detailed analysis showed that this bias varied dramatically throughout a year and with no consistent sex bias. We used a mark‐recapture approach to examine the origin and consistency of female‐biased sex ratio in four replicated introductions. We show that female‐biased sex ratio arises predictably and is a consequence of higher male mortality and longer female life spans with little effect of offspring sex ratio. Inconsistencies with previous studies are likely due to sampling methods and sampling design, which should be less of an issue with mark‐recapture techniques. Together with other long‐term mark‐recapture studies, our study suggests that bias in offspring sex ratio rarely contributes to adult sex ratio in vertebrates. Rather, sex differences in adult survival rates and longevity determine vertebrate adult sex ratio.     

State uncertainty models and mark‐resight models for understanding non‐breeding site use by Piping Plovers

Conservation of beach‐nesting medium‐distance migrants has focused on breeding areas because protection of nests is more tractable than protection of non‐breeding habitat. As breeding ground management has encountered diminishing returns, interest in understanding threats in non‐breeding areas has increased. However, robust estimates of non‐breeding demographic rates and abundance are generally lacking, hindering the study of limiting factors. Estimating such rates is made more difficult by complex population dynamics at non‐breeding sites. In South Carolina, endangered Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus start arriving in July and some depart prior to December (the autumn‐only population) while others remain through at least March (the wintering population). State uncertainty capture‐mark‐recapture models provide a means for estimating vital rates for such co‐occurring populations. We estimated the proportion of the population entering the study area per survey (entry probability) and proportion remaining per survey (persistence rate) for both populations during autumn, and abundance of the wintering population, at four sites in South Carolina in 2006/7 and 2007/8, taking advantage of birds previously colour‐ringed on the breeding grounds. We made fairly precise estimates of entry and persistence rates with small sample sizes. Cumulative entry probability was ~50% by the end of July and reached 95% for both populations by October. Estimated stopover duration for birds in the autumn‐only population was 35 days in year 1 and 42 days in year 2. We estimated a wintering super‐population size of 71 ± 16 se birds in the first year and 75 ± 16 in the second. If ringing programmes on the breeding grounds continue, standardized resighting surveys in the non‐breeding period and mark‐recapture models can provide robust estimates of entry and persistence rates and abundance. Habitat protection intended to benefit non‐breeding Piping Plovers at our coastal sites should be in effect by late summer, as many birds are resident from July to the end of winter.     

Effects of leg flags on nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Marking wild birds is an integral part of many field studies. However, if marks affect the vital rates or behavior of marked individuals, any conclusions reached by a study might be biased relative to the general population. Leg bands have rarely been found to have negative effects on birds and are frequently used to mark individuals. Leg flags, which are larger, heavier, and might produce more drag than bands, are commonly used on shorebirds and can help improve resighting rates. However, no one to date has assessed the possible effects of leg flags on the demographic performance of shorebirds. At seven sites in Arctic Alaska and western Canada, we marked individuals and monitored nest survival of four species of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds, including Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), Western Sandpipers (C. mauri), Red‐necked Phalaropes (Phalaropus lobatus), and Red Phalaropes (P. fulicarius). We used a daily nest survival model in a Bayesian framework to test for effects of leg flags, relative to birds with only bands, on daily survival rates of 1952 nests. We found no evidence of a difference in nest survival between birds with flags and those with only bands. Our results suggest, therefore, that leg flags have little effect on the nest success of Arctic‐breeding sandpipers and phalaropes. Additional studies are needed, however, to evaluate the possible effects of flags on shorebirds that use other habitats and on survival rates of adults and chicks.     

Aerial surveys suggest long‐term stability in the seasonally ice‐free Foxe Basin (Nunavut) polar bear population

Significant information gaps exist regarding the status of polar bears, especially with respect to the impacts of climate change, across large portions of the Arctic. To obtain an updated abundance estimate for the Foxe Basin population, we conducted comprehensive aerial surveys during the 2009 and 2010 ice‐free seasons, when bears are confined to land. We sampled with mark‐recapture distance sampling protocols on inland and coastal transects and surveyed small islands and remnant ice floes. We observed 816 and 1,003 bears in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Although detection functions differed substantially between years, estimates were consistent between analytical methods and years. Averaging four estimates (two from each year) yielded 2,585 (2,096–3,189) bears, which is similar to an estimate from the 1990s. This result, along with robust cub production, suggests a stable and healthy population despite deteriorating sea ice conditions. Collectively, this and other recent on‐land surveys provide a framework for implementing aerial surveys elsewhere. Although aerial surveys do not yield estimates of vital rates or population growth, they enable more rapid and frequent monitoring than mark‐recapture. Integrating them in long‐term monitoring programs will require consideration of ancillary data to infer status and facilitate setting harvest levels.     

Recommendations for photo‐identification methods used in capture‐recapture models with cetaceans

Capture‐recapture methods are frequently employed to estimate abundance of cetaceans using photographic techniques and a variety of statistical models. However, there are many unresolved issues regarding the selection and manipulation of images that can potentially impose bias on resulting estimates. To examine the potential impact of these issues we circulated a test data set of dorsal fin images from bottlenose dolphins to several independent research groups. Photo‐identification methods were generally similar, but the selection, scoring, and matching of images varied greatly amongst groups. Based on these results we make the following recommendations. Researchers should: (1) determine the degree of marking, or level of distinctiveness, and use images of sufficient quality to recognize animals of that level of distinctiveness; (2) ensure that markings are sufficiently distinct to eliminate the potential for “twins” to occur; (3) stratify data sets by distinctiveness and generate a series of abundance estimates to investigate the influence of including animals of varying degrees of markings; and (4) strive to examine and incorporate variability among analysts into capture‐recapture estimation. In this paper we summarize these potential sources of bias and provide recommendations for best practices for using natural markings in a capture‐recapture framework.     

dropout: a program to identify problem loci and samples for noninvasive genetic samples in a capture‐mark‐recapture framework

Abstract Genotyping error, often associated with low‐quantity/quality DNA samples, is an important issue when using genetic tags to estimate abundance using capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR). dropout , an MS‐Windows program, identifies both loci and samples that likely contain errors affecting CMR estimates. dropout uses a ‘bimodal test’, that enumerates the number of loci different between each pair of samples, and a ‘difference in capture history test’ (DCH) to determine those loci producing the most errors. Importantly, the DCH test allows one to determine that a data set is error‐free. dropout has been evaluated in McKelvey & Schwartz (2004) and is now available online.     

Using time‐of‐detection to evaluate detectability assumptions in temporally replicated aural count indices: an example with Ring‐necked Pheasants

ABSTRACT The validity of treating counts as indices to abundance is based on the assumption that the expected detection probability, E(p), is constant over time or comparison groups or, more realistically, that variation in p is small relative to variation in population size that investigators seek to detect. Unfortunately, reliable estimates of E(p) and var(p) are lacking for most index methods. As a case study, we applied the time‐of‐detection method to temporally replicated (within season) aural counts of crowing male Ring‐necked Pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) at 18 sites in southern Minnesota in 2007 to evaluate the detectability assumptions. More specifically, we used the time‐of‐detection method to estimate E(p) and var(p), and then used these estimates in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate bias‐variance tradeoffs associated with adjusting count indices for imperfect detection. The estimated mean detection probability in our case study was 0.533 (SE = 0.030) and estimated spatial variation in E(p) was 0.081 (95% CI: 0.057–0.126). On average, both adjusted (for) and unadjusted counts of crowing males qualitatively described the simulated relationship between pheasant abundance and grassland abundance, but the bias‐variance tradeoff was smaller for adjusted counts (MSE = 0.003 vs. 0.045, respectively). Our case study supports the general recommendation to use, whenever feasible, formal population‐estimation procedures (e.g., mark‐recapture, distance sampling, double sampling) to account for imperfect detection. However, we caution that interpreting estimates of absolute abundance can be complicated, even if formal estimation methods are used. For example, the time‐of‐detection method was useful for evaluating detectability assumptions in our case study and the method could be used to adjust aural count indices for imperfect detection. Conversely, using the time‐of‐detection method to estimate absolute abundances in our case study was problematic because the biological populations and sampling coverage could not be clearly delineated. These estimation and inference challenges may also be important in other avian surveys that involve mobile species (whose home ranges may overlap several sampling sites), temporally replicated counts, and inexact sampling coverage.     

Stopover of migrating birds: simultaneous analysis of different marking methods enhances the power of capture–recapture analyses

Analyses of stopover parameters of migrating birds with Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) capture–recapture models often suffer from low precision due to sparse data sets. Low recapture rates result in low power to detect violations of the underlying assumptions and factors influencing stopover behaviour. We studied stopover behaviour of Palearctic migrant passerines in an oasis in Mauritania, West Africa. Using capture–recapture data and systematic observations of colour-ringed birds, we analysed the effect of increased sample size on probability of stay and recapture probability and the influence of a possible trap response on these parameters. We analysed capture–recapture data with the conventional CJS model and compared the results with those from a multistate model using in addition resighting data. The analyses including resighting data resulted in a higher precision of the estimates of the probabilities of stay compared to analyses using only capture–recapture data of the same individuals. Moreover, the power to detect transients was substantially enhanced. Capture had no effect on the estimates of probability to stay and recapture probability; birds did not leave the stopover site or avoid nets as a reaction to capture. The estimates of probability of stay were up to 15.7% higher when resighting data were included, probably due to the higher power to detect transients and the elimination of the bias induced by non-random temporary emigration when both data types are considered. As a consequence, stopover duration would have been underestimated when only the capture–recapture data were available. We conclude that additional resightings of colour ringed birds can produce more accurate results needed for enhancing our understanding of stopover ecology of migrants. Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users. From the Swiss Ornithological Institute project on bird migration across the Sahara.     

Assessing the abundance of Bristol Bay belugas with genetic mark‐recapture methods

The Bristol Bay stock of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) is genetically distinct and resides in Bristol Bay year‐round. We estimated the abundance of this population using genetic mark‐recapture, whereby genetic markers from skin biopsies, collected between 2002 and 2011, were used to identify individuals. We identified 516 individual belugas in two inner bays, 468 from Kvichak Bay and 48 from Nushagak Bay, and recaptured 75 belugas in separate years. Using a POPAN Jolly‐Seber model, abundance was estimated at 1,928 belugas (95% CI = 1,611–2,337), not including calves, which were not sampled. Most belugas were sampled in Kvichak Bay at a time when belugas are also known to occur in Nushagak Bay. The pattern of genetic recaptures and data from belugas with satellite transmitters suggested that belugas in the two bays regularly mix. Hence, the estimate of abundance likely applies to all belugas within Bristol Bay. Simulations suggested that POPAN estimates of abundance are robust to most forms of emigration, but that emigration causes negative bias in both capture and survival probabilities. Because it is likely that some belugas do not enter the sampling area during sampling, our estimate of abundance is best considered a minimum population size.     

An approach for assessing paddlefish Polyodon spathula (Walbaum, 1792) populations using mark‐recapture information

Historically, management of fish populations has been achieved through the use of age‐derived estimates of growth and mortality. For long‐lived species such as the paddlefish, Polyodon spathula, the validation of calcified structures is necessary to correct for the presence of false annuli or the absence of growth rings. Regardless, numerous studies on paddlefish populations throughout their range have continued the use of un‐validated age estimates to evaluate dynamic rate functions. The use of mark‐recapture studies has been applied widely to evaluate growth of short‐lived fishes, but only recently to a few long‐lived freshwater fishes (i.e. white sturgeon, shovelnose sturgeon, and pallid sturgeon). This study provides the first simultaneous evaluation of both mark‐recapture and age‐estimate information in determining population characteristics for paddlefish. In doing so, this study has determined that the P. spathula population in the Black River below Clearwater Dam, Missouri is sustainable. Additionally, mark‐recapture information is sufficient to produce accurate and reliable assessments of paddlefish populations in lieu of validated aging structures; future management should be centered on accurate scientific methods, which is not the case when using un‐validated aging structures (e.g. scales, otoliths, fin rays, dentary bones) to determine population parameters. Mark‐recapture information can provide an accurate, alternative source of growth and mortality information for use in evaluating and managing paddlefish populations throughout their range.     

Disease‐structured N‐mixture models: A practical guide to model disease dynamics using count data

Obtaining inferences on disease dynamics (e.g., host population size, pathogen prevalence, transmission rate, host survival probability) typically requires marking and tracking individuals over time. While multistate mark–recapture models can produce high‐quality inference, these techniques are difficult to employ at large spatial and long temporal scales or in small remnant host populations decimated by virulent pathogens, where low recapture rates may preclude the use of mark–recapture techniques. Recently developed N‐mixture models offer a statistical framework for estimating wildlife disease dynamics from count data. N‐mixture models are a type of state‐space model in which observation error is attributed to failing to detect some individuals when they are present (i.e., false negatives). The analysis approach uses repeated surveys of sites over a period of population closure to estimate detection probability. We review the challenges of modeling disease dynamics and describe how N‐mixture models can be used to estimate common metrics, including pathogen prevalence, transmission, and recovery rates while accounting for imperfect host and pathogen detection. We also offer a perspective on future research directions at the intersection of quantitative and disease ecology, including the estimation of false positives in pathogen presence, spatially explicit disease‐structured N‐mixture models, and the integration of other data types with count data to inform disease dynamics. Managers rely on accurate and precise estimates of disease dynamics to develop strategies to mitigate pathogen impacts on host populations. At a time when pathogens pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, statistical methods that lead to robust inferences on host populations are critically needed for rapid, rather than incremental, assessments of the impacts of emerging infectious diseases.     

Integrating high‐speed videos in capture‐mark‐recapture studies of insects

Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) studies have been used extensively in ecology and evolution. While it is feasible to apply CMR in some animals, it is considerably more challenging in small fast‐moving species such as insects. In these groups, low recapture rates can bias estimates of demographic parameters, thereby handicapping effective analysis and management of wild populations. Here, we use high‐speed videos (HSV) to capture two large dragonfly species, Anax junius and Rhionaeschna multicolor, that rarely land and, thus, are particularly challenging for CMR studies. We test whether HSV, compared to conventional “eye” observations, increases the “resighting” rates and, consequently, improves estimates of both survival rates and the effects of demographic covariates on survival. We show that the use of HSV increases the number of resights by 64% in A. junius and 48% in R. multicolor. HSV improved our estimates of resighting and survival probability which were either under‐ or overestimated with the conventional observations. Including HSV improved credible intervals for resighting rate and survival probability by 190% and 130% in A. junius and R. multicolor, respectively. Hence, it has the potential to open the door to a wide range of research possibilities on species that are traditionally difficult to monitor with distance sampling, including within insects and birds.     

Lek fidelity and movement among leks by male Greater Sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus: a capture‐mark‐recapture approach

Males in lek mating systems tend to exhibit high fidelity to breeding leks despite substantial evidence of skewed mating success among males. Although movements between leks are often reported to be rare, such movements provide a mechanism for an individual to improve lifetime fitness in response to heterogeneity in reproductive conditions. Additionally, estimates of apparent movements among leks are potentially biased due to unaccounted variation in detection probability across time and space. We monitored breeding male Greater Sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus on 13 leks in eastern Nevada over a 10‐year period, and estimated movement rates among leks using capture‐mark‐recapture methods. We expected that male movement rates among leks would be low, despite predictions of low breeding success for most males, and that detection rates would be highly variable among leks and years. We used a robust design multistate analysis in Program mark to estimate probability of movements among leks, while accounting for imperfect detection of males. Male Sage‐grouse were extremely faithful to their leks; the annual probability of a male moving away from its original lek of capture was approximately 3% (se = 0.01). Detection probabilities varied substantially among leks (range = 0.21–0.95), and among years (range = 0.30–0.76), but remained relatively constant within years at each lek. These results suggest that male Sage‐grouse dispersal is either rare, or consists primarily of dispersal of sub‐adults from their natal areas prior to the breeding season. The study highlights the benefits of robust design multistate models over standard ‘live‐encounter’ analyses, as they not only permit estimation of additional parameters, such as movement rates, but also allow for more precise parameter estimates that are less sensitive to heterogeneity in detection rates. Additionally, as these data were collected using capture‐mark‐recapture methods, our approach to estimating movement rates would be beneficial in systems where radiotagging is detrimental to the study organism.     

Banding data reveal bias in age‐class sampling of songbirds during spring migration

Population age structure and vital statistics are important for understanding songbird demography and for developing conservation strategies. Field‐based estimates of survival rates based on mark–recapture methods are conservative because they are constrained by problems associated with detection probabilities and emigration. However, data collected at bird‐banding stations during spring and fall migration can potentially provide useful demographic information. I used banding data collected over a 6‐yr period (2005–2010) at Long Point Bird Observatory on the north shore of Lake Erie in Ontario, Canada, and Powdermill Avian Research Center in southeastern Pennsylvania, U.S.A., to determine if banding records could be used to estimate vital statistics for several species of songbirds. As reported in previous studies, I found the proportion of juveniles captured during fall migration to be unrealistically high to be representative of true proportions, especially at Long Point. The proportion of juvenile songbirds captured remained implausibly high during spring migration, with related estimates of longevity and generation time implausibly low and of fecundity implausibly high. Based on apparent adult survival estimates from the literature that suggest an average age structure for songbirds of >55% adults and <45% juveniles, I found that capture rates for juveniles during spring migration were at least twice as high as that for adults. A slower pace of spring migration by juveniles likely accounts for some of this bias. Because the data cannot be assumed to represent unbiased samples with respect to the age structure of populations, my results indicate that banding data collected at bird‐banding stations during migration are not suitable for use in demographic studies.     

Tillage affects the activity‐density,absolute density,and feeding damage of the pea leaf weevil in spring pea

Conversion from conventional‐tillage (CT) to no‐tillage (NT) agriculture can affect pests and beneficial organisms in various ways. NT has been shown to reduce the relative abundance and feeding damage of pea leaf weevil (PLW), Sitona lineatus L. (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in spring pea, especially during the early‐season colonization period in the Palouse region of northwest Idaho. Pitfall traps were used to quantify tillage effects on activity‐density of PLW in field experiments conducted during 2001 and 2002. As capture rate of pitfall traps for PLW might be influenced by effects of tillage treatment, two mark‐recapture studies were employed to compare trapping rates in NT and CT spring pea during 2003. Also in 2003, direct sampling was used to estimate PLW densities during the colonization period, and to assess PLW feeding damage on pea. PLW activity‐density was significantly lower in NT relative to CT during the early colonization period (May) of 2001 and 2002, and during the late colonization period (June) of 2002. Activity‐density was not different between treatments during the early emergence (July) or late emergence (August) periods in either year of the study. Trap capture rates did not differ between tillage systems in the mark‐recapture studies, suggesting that pitfall trapping provided unbiased estimates of PLW relative abundances. PLW absolute densities and feeding damage were significantly lower in NT than in CT. These results indicate that NT provides a pest suppression benefit in spring pea.     

Are we overestimating recovery of sturgeon populations using mark/recapture surveys?

Mark‐recaptures studies are often conducted to monitor trends in sturgeon populations. However, many of these studies experience low recapture rates, minimal movement between marking‐recapture phases suggesting that sturgeon as a group are not conducive to mark‐recapture techniques. In this study, two mark‐recapture studies that were conducted differently were reviewed. A study was conducted on the Mattagami River using random nets set throughout the study area in both the mark and recapture phases. The other study was conducted on Lake of the Woods and marked sturgeon in tributaries during the spawning period and the recapture phase within the lake and river during the summer foraging period using random nets sets. Sturgeon's conduciveness to mark‐recapture studies was assessed on the Mattagami River mark‐recapture study by determining detection probability (p) using a hierarchical Bayesian model with data augmentation among three effects: individual effect, temporal effects, and behavioural response effects. Detection probability was constant over individuals and temporally suggesting model M₀ (Otis, Burnham, White, & Anderson, 1978 ) was suitable for lake sturgeon in the Mattagami River; only the M₀ would converge for the Lake of the Woods study. For this study, the assumption that “all individuals have the same probability of being captured during the marking phase” was believed to have been violated given approximately 16%–20% of adult Lake Sturgeon from a population spawn within a year. A population estimate accounting for p provided estimates 56% lower than calculated by a Chapman modification of the Peterson estimate for a closed population. Bias was believed to have been introduced as the Lake of the Woods population did not account for the non‐spawning adults that were encountered during the recapture phase and not vulnerable during the initial marking phase. This was not unique to the Lake of the Woods study as other sturgeon studies, especially multi‐year, assumes a closed population which potentially biased estimates and overestimated their recovery.     

Updated assessment of hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon (Forbes & Richardson, 1905) survival in the lower Missouri River

As pallid sturgeon, Scaphirhynchus albus (Forbes & Richardson, 1905), natural reproduction and recruitment remains very minimal in the lower Missouri River from Gavins Point Dam (river kilometer [rkm] 1305.2) to the confluence with the Mississippi River (rkm 0.0), hatchery supplementation and river‐wide monitoring efforts have continued. Annual survival estimates of hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon stocked in the lower Missouri River were previously estimated during 1994–2008. Low recapture rates prior to 2006 limited the data available to estimate survival, which resulted in considerable uncertainty for the estimate of annual survival of age‐1 fish. Therefore, the objective was to provide more precise estimates of annual survival of pallid sturgeon using five additional years of stocking and sampling. The Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model structure provided in program MARK was used to estimate the age‐specific survival estimates. Over 135 000 hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon were released during 1994–2011 and recaptured at a rate of 1.9%, whereby estimates for the annual survival of age‐0 (Ø = 0.048) and >age‐1 (Ø = 0.931) were similar to those previously reported, but the age‐1 (Ø = 0.403) survival estimate was 52% lower. Post hoc analysis using time‐specific survival estimates indicated lower survival for age‐1 fish post‐2003 year classes, relative to the pre‐2002 year classes. An analysis confirms that hatchery‐reared pallid sturgeon continue to survive in the wild. However, low survival during the first 2 years of life is a management concern as efforts are aimed at maximizing genetic diversity and population growth. A follow‐up analysis also demonstrated the variability of capture rates and survival over time, which reinforces the need to continue to monitor and evaluate mark‐recapture data. The mark‐recapture efforts have provided demographic parameter estimates that remain a critical component for species recovery as these data are incorporated into population models.     

Improved methods for estimating abundance and related demographic parameters from mark‐resight data

Over the past decade, there has been much methodological development for the estimation of abundance and related demographic parameters using mark‐resight data. Often viewed as a less‐invasive and less‐expensive alternative to conventional mark recapture, mark‐resight methods jointly model marked individual encounters and counts of unmarked individuals, and recent extensions accommodate common challenges associated with imperfect detection. When these challenges include both individual detection heterogeneity and an unknown marked sample size, we demonstrate several deficiencies associated with the most widely used mark‐resight models currently implemented in the popular capture‐recapture freeware Program MARK. We propose a composite likelihood solution based on a zero‐inflated Poisson log‐normal model and find the performance of this new estimator to be superior in terms of bias and confidence interval coverage. Under Pollock's robust design, we also extend the models to accommodate individual‐level random effects across sampling occasions as a potentially more realistic alternative to models that assume independence. As a motivating example, we revisit a previous analysis of mark‐resight data for the New Zealand Robin (Petroica australis) and compare inferences from the proposed estimators. For the all‐too‐common situation where encounter rates are low, individual detection heterogeneity is non‐negligible, and the number of marked individuals is unknown, we recommend practitioners use the zero‐inflated Poisson log‐normal mark‐resight estimator as now implemented in Program MARK.