基于投入产出分析的北京市虚拟水核算

城市化进程的加快与工农业的迅速发展使城市水消耗量日趋增加。水资源短缺不仅会造成居民生活质量下降,还会制约社会经济的可持续发展。从贸易和消费的角度核算虚拟水可为研究城市水资源管理提供新的视角。通过投入产出分析了构建了城市系统虚拟水核算模型,利用虚拟水直接和完全用水系数、虚拟水消费量等指标分析城市虚拟水消耗和虚拟水进出口特征。以北京市为例,利用2012年北京市投入产出表和部门的水资源消耗数据核算不同部门的用水系数、最终消费虚拟水量、虚拟水进出口贸易量及部门间虚拟水流转量。结果表明:北京市为虚拟水净进口城市,净进口虚拟水量6.77×10~9m~3,相当于北京市虚拟水用水总量(8.25×10~9m~3)的82%,农业和制造业为主要虚拟水进口部门;北京市虚拟水出口结构存在不合理之处,经济投入产出表中各部门出口总额占最终消费的79.9%,但出口产品消耗的虚拟水占了最终消费隐含虚拟水的85.04%,其中农产品消耗6.7%虚拟水但经济收益仅占1%,说明北京市出口以较大的虚拟水消耗量换取了较少的经济收益,需要减少虚拟水含量较大但经济价值不高的产品出口(如农产品);识别出的主要虚拟水流出-流入关系部门包括农业-制造业,农业-服务业和制造业-建筑业等部门的关联关系,可成为减少间接水消耗的关键路径。     

基于投入产出模型的黄河“几字弯”城市群用水特征与节水关键区域

黄河“几字弯”区域是黄河流域的关键节点，是实现中西部崛起的关键区域，也是黄河流域生态环境保护和高质量发展的战略支撑。然而，缺水已经成为制约“几字弯”地区经济社会发展的最大瓶颈。利用投入产出模型，从生产侧的实体水和消费测的虚拟水出发，分析“几字弯”地区18个城市的用水量、结构变化和流入流出特征，结合生产与消费两个方面提出了“几字弯”地区城市群节水的重点区域及产业供水调整的建议。（1）“几字弯”区域虚拟水用量由2007年648.5亿m3增加至2017年778.4 亿m3，增加了20.0%，但实体水用量仅变化了-0.04%，各城市虚拟水增长类型差异较大。（2）18个城市实体水占虚拟水的比例由2007年41.7%下降至2017年34.8%，水资源利用效率逐步提高；实体水的用水大户是农业，虚拟水的用水大户是制造业和农业，服务业实体水和虚拟水用量剧增。（3）区域18个城市虚拟水流入量增长明显，但整体仍呈现出虚拟水净流出的特征。制造业虚拟水流出量均在188.9亿m3以上，流入量均不足108.9亿m3，制造业在区域经济中具有一定的比较优势。（4）巴彦淖尔、中卫、吴忠、石嘴山和白银市是“几字弯”18个城市中重点节水的对象。在这些城市中，农业用水比重较大，产出较低，农业是今后节水的重点。鄂尔多斯、包头、石嘴山、乌海制造业具有比较优势，巴彦淖尔的农业用水系数远远高于18个城市的平均值，需要控制其农业用水。对于鄂尔多斯、包头、石嘴山、乌海、巴彦淖尔5市，需要向当地的优势产业制造业和服务业进行供水倾斜、提高比较优势。     

基于投入产出方法的甘肃省水足迹及虚拟水贸易研究

随着社会化进程的加快,地处西北内陆的甘肃省正面临日益严峻的水资源短缺危机,社会经济发展受到一定程度的制约,水生态环境也呈现出恶化的趋势。水足迹是近年来提出的衡量人类活动对于水生态系统影响的指标,能够帮助决策者制定水资源管理及保护的政策,从而实现地区水资源的可持续利用。运用单区域投入产出方法计算并分析了甘肃省1997、2002和2007年第一产业、第二产业和第三产业部门的虚拟水强度、水足迹以及虚拟水贸易情况。结果显示:(1)甘肃省第一产业的虚拟水强度最高,但呈现出逐年下降的趋势,水足迹也因此有所下降;(2)虚拟水贸易方面,甘肃省以虚拟水净出口为主,尤其是第一产业,每年虚拟水净出口量约全省总水资源量的10%。建议甘肃省继续巩固已有的节水成果,调整产业结构,大力发展节水型产业和高新技术产业。同时建议适当调整贸易格局,合理控制虚拟水出口,以缓解当地水资源短缺危机,保障地区水安全与生态安全。     

基于投入产出表的北京市产业生态效率

提高生态效率对协调经济发展与环境保护的关系至关重要。为了了解北京市产业转型过程中各产业部门生态效率的变化趋势,识别提高影响北京市产业生态效率的关键部门,基于北京市投入产出表,运用指标体系法,选取水资源效率,以及废水、二氧化硫、工业固体废弃物的环境效率作为生态效率的衡量指标,核算了北京市2007、2010和2012年各部门的水资源效率以及2005、2007和2010年各部门的环境效率,并比较分析了各部门的水资源的完全用水系数以及污染物的完全排放系数,计算各部门之间完全排放量的相互贡献比例,识别了提高生态效率的关键部门。研究结果:(1)2007—2012年,北京市各部门水资源效率和2005—2010年废水、二氧化硫(SO_2)、工业固体废弃物的环境效率整体呈波动上升趋势。(2)农林牧渔业和废品废料部门是提高水资源效率的关键部门。(3)水的生产和供应业、化学工业、食品制造及烟草加工业、纺织业和造纸印刷及文教体育用品制造业是提高废水环境效率的关键部门。(4)石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力及热力的生产和供应业是提高SO_2环境效率的关键部门。(5)煤炭开采和洗选业、金属矿采选业、木材加工及家具制造业、非金属矿物制品业、金属冶炼及压延加工业、电力及热力的生产和供应业、水的生产和供应业是提高工业固体废弃物环境效率的关键部门。     

京津冀城市群用水效率及其与城市化水平的关系

深入分析京津冀城市群用水效率与城市化水平的相互关系,揭示不同城市城市化水平对水资源利用效率的影响,有助于缓解水资源短缺问题。结合超效率数据包络模型,定量分析了京津冀城市群不同行业的用水效率,从人口、经济、社会与土地等不同城市化角度,全面分析了城市发展水平与生活、工业、农业三大行业用水效率之间的相互关系。主要结论为:(1)2006—2015年,京津冀城市群生活和工业用水效率总体上略微下降,而农业用水效率明显上升;不同城市之间存在明显差别,唐山、衡水与沧州市各行业用水效率均较高,邯郸和邢台市各行业用水效率均偏低。(2)城市发展水平对不同行业用水效率的影响存在明显差异。城市化水平的提升可以显著提高生活用水效率,但对工业和农业用水效率具有不同程度的负向影响。综合用水效率仅受到经济城市化的显著影响,相关系数达0.19,表明提高用水效率的关键是进一步调整经济产业结构。(3)城市化水平与用水效率梯度的匹配状态较差。一方面,京津冀13个城市中达到匹配的城市仅有4个,占京津冀城市总数的30.77%,匹配程度较低。另一方面,不存在城市化水平和用水效率双高型的城市,匹配层次较低。综上所述,针对京津冀城市化发展与用水效率的失衡关系,应审视水资源投入产出结构并尝试行业联动等节水发展模式。     

基于“水-能-碳”消费视角的福建省资源环境与经济增长脱钩关系

厘清资源环境消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩关系及驱动机制,对福建省发挥国家生态文明建设示范区作用具有重要意义。本研究通过构建“水-能-碳”资源环境投入产出模型,对福建省行业“水-能-碳”资源环境压力进行分析,基于脱钩理论和对数平均迪式指数分解法对福建省各行业“水-能-碳”资源环境消耗与经济增长之间的脱钩状态及其驱动因素进行研究。结果表明: 2002—2017年,福建省由虚拟水主导的资源环境压力转变为隐含碳为主导的“水-能-碳”多维资源环境压力,且各行业部门差异较大。从行业部门来看,生产供应业具有较大的直接资源环境压力,制造业部门的间接资源环境压力显著。从脱钩关系来看,福建省的资源环境消耗与经济增长的脱钩状态表现良好,主要表现为弱脱钩和强脱钩。从驱动因素来看,经济效应和人口效应是抑制脱钩的主要因素,而技术效应和结构效应则对脱钩起到促进作用。     

北京市水足迹及农业用水结构变化特征

运用水足迹的理论和方法计算评价了1990—2005年北京市水足迹及水资源利用的可持续性,在此基础上进一步分析了北京市农业用水结构的变化特征。结果表明:(1)北京市水足迹从1990年的81.5亿m3上升至2005年的168.6亿m3,人均水足迹由750.1m3上升为1096.0m3;(2)北京市水资源匮乏度不断升高,1995年以来水资源自给率呈下降趋势,与之相对应的水资源依赖度越来越高;(3)农业部门用水量在本地用水量中的比例平均每年为55.1%,虚拟水净输入量在虚拟水净输入总量中的比例平均每年达到89.1%;(4)高耗水型作物产品生产用水比例升高加大了农业用水压力,动物产品生产用水量呈增加趋势,2001—2005年动物产品生产引入的虚拟水占到其虚拟水总量的81.3%。北京市水资源利用呈不可持续状态,通过农业系统内部结构的优化调整,实现农业部门水资源的高效利用是缓解北京市水资源紧缺问题的关键。     

基于数据包络分析的江苏省水资源利用效率

采用水足迹理论分析江苏省2000-2010年水资源的真实利用情况,同时从投入产出的角度出发,选取农业用水量、工业用水量、生活用水量、COD排放总量、固定资产投资总额和从业人员数作为投入指标,GDP和粮食产量作为产出指标,运用数据包络分析中的C2R和BC2模型对这11a间江苏省的水资源利用效率进行评价.研究表明:2010年江苏省的水足迹为778.28m3,总体呈缓慢上升趋势.农业用水、工业用水和虚拟水贸易是江苏省水资源利用中的主要组成部分.11a间DEA有效年份占64％,投入冗余和产出不足均为0,即投入和产出达到最优状态.在DEA无效年份中存在冗余,存在资源浪费和污染高排放的情况.可以通过DEA投影结果对其进行改进,实现资源的最优配置.     

基于假设抽取法的黑河流域中游行业用水关联分析

基于2000—2012年张掖市混合型水资源投入产出模型,运用改进的假设抽取法,分析了张掖市6部门水资源关联效应,揭示了水资源在行业间的消耗规律,为调整产业结构提供有利的参考。研究结果表明:(1)各部门水资源直接消耗量与满足自身所需的水资源量不对等,种植业的水资源直接消耗量和纵向集成消耗量均为最大,且其纵向集成消耗水量小于直接消耗量,是张掖市经济系统中真正的水资源净输出部门。(2)种植业的内部效应和复合效应均最大,对自身的依赖性极强。服务业的净后项关联最大,对其他部门的依赖程度最高。(3)水资源在各部门之间发生了转移,种植业是张掖市经济系统中最大的水资源供给者,服务业是各部门中最大的受水者,通过中间投入的方式,由种植业到服务业的路径是最大的水转移途径,而建筑业是"纯"输入部门。(4)2000—2012年间,各部门的内部效应、复合效应、净前项关联和净后项关联均变化显著,进一步反映了产业部门水资源利用的动态关联。     

虚拟水在农业生态系统中的作用与贡献分析

水是农业生态系统中最重要的组成要素之一,也是粮食生产的一个重要安全保证,在确保粮食资源持续供应增长人口的需求中起到了根本的作用.文中分析了虚拟水的政策内涵,并依据对我国过去20年粮食生产与进口替代趋势的分析和国内外的粮食生产条件,估算出1980～2000年,小麦进口每年有10.2×10⁹ m³水和27.7×10⁶ hm²土地输入,玉米进口约有0.3×10⁹m³水和1.6×10⁶ hm²土地被间接利用.这对缓解我国农业用水和耕地资源紧张状况,灵活利用粮食贸易进口,解决粮食生产中的用水困境,利用虚拟水进口来补偿水资源的贡献率,具有重要的现实意义.     

An Urban Metabolism and Carbon Footprint Analysis of the Jing–Jin–Ji Regional Agglomeration

Urban energy metabolism includes processes for exploiting, transforming, and consuming energy, as well as processes for recycling by‐products and wastes. Embodied energy is the energy consumed during all of these activities, both directly and indirectly. Multiregional input‐output (MRIO) analysis can calculate the energy consumption embodied in flows among sectors for multiple cities or regions. Our goal was to address a problem apparent in previous research, which was insufficient attention to indirect energy flows. We combined MRIO analysis with ecological network analysis to calculate the embodied energy consumption and the energy‐related carbon footprints of five sectors in three regions that comprise the Jing‐Jin‐Ji agglomeration, using data from 2002 and 2007. Our analysis traced metabolic processes of sectors from the perspective of final consumption. Based on the embodied energy analysis, we quantified the indirect energy consumption implied in exchanges of sectors and its distribution and identified the relationships formed through the indirect consumption to analyze the roles of providers and receivers in the system. Results showed that the embodied energy consumption for the Jing‐Jin‐Ji region increased from 2002 to 2007 as a result of increased energy consumption in Tianjin and Hebei. Overall, consumption of Beijing decreased likely attributable to the fact that government policies relocated industries during this time in anticipation of the Olympic Games. The relationships among sectors changed: Beijing changed from a net exporter to an importer, whereas Hebei changed from a net importer of energy from Beijing to an exporter to Beijing, and Tianjin served as an importer in both years.     

China’s water footprint by province,and inter-provincial transfer of virtual water

Water shortages and the uneven distribution of water resources restrict China’s sustainable development. The concepts of virtual water and water footprints provide a new approach to alleviate regional shortages of Chinese water resources by the inter-provincial allocation of commercial water resources. In this study, an interregional input-output model was applied to quantitatively estimate the water footprint of each province in China and to quantify the inter-provincial transfer of virtual water. The results indicated that there was considerable diversity in the water footprints of the various provinces. Provinces with larger populations and greater GDP had larger water footprints, and developed regions had higher proportions of external water footprints. From the perspective of final demand, local consumption was the main factor driving the water footprints of these provinces. From the perspective of sectoral structure, the agricultural water footprint had a larger proportion in these provinces. The transfer of virtual water in China did not occur from regions with abundant water resources to those suffering from water shortages, but it generally occurred from west to east, from inland to coastal areas, and from underdeveloped to developed regions. Many water-deficient regions also had large net virtual water exports. Water shortages in China will be alleviated by the enhancement of industrial water-use efficiency in water-deficient regions, the transfer of water-intensive industries to regions with abundant water resources, and the development of tertiary industries with low water consumption.     

Understanding agricultural virtual water flows in the world from an economic perspective: A long term study

The globalization process of the last half century entailed a growing trade in agricultural and food products. As a result, water has been transferred among countries, embodied in these goods. This paper studies the evolution of virtual water flows over the long term, analyzing the main driving factors through Decomposition Analysis. It contributes to the existing literature by offering a dynamic and economic interpretation of the historical changes in virtual water trade flows. In particular, this study points to a gradual increase in virtual water exchange, related to the upsurge of agricultural and food products trade in the world from 1965 to 2010. Although the origins and destinations of virtual water have changed, North America stands out as the primary net exporter of virtual water. Europe and Asia, on the other hand, with a high dependency on foreign water resources, appear as net importers of virtual water. Despite improvements in agricultural yields and the reallocation of production, the virtual water trade continues to increase globally via these significant commercial exchanges.     

Reduction and reallocation of water use of products in Beijing

The virtual water concept has received significant attention through manifesting the role of human activities such as consumption and international trade on water resources. However, few studies have focused on how the interactions of local supply chain exert impact on local water resources associated with virtual water flows. In this study, we introduce an indicator which is attached to the virtual water concept, termed the “internal water use of products” (IWUP), to examine the direct and indirect water use from local water supply for goods and services in Beijing for the years 1997, 2000, 2002, 2007, and 2010. This indicator links the pressure on local water resources to the final products with sectoral details, highlighting the importance of economic analysis in local water resource management. A structural decomposition analysis revealed that the increase in economic water productivity would have caused Beijing's IWUP to decrease by 196% from 1997 to 2010, if other determining factors remained constant. Such great efficiency improvements have allowed Beijing to fulfill its objectives of economic growth, whilst in the meantime reducing the water used in production. However, we also found that production structure adjustment would increase the IWUP, mainly due to a shift from agricultural and industrial sectors to service sectors.     

Ecological network analysis for virtual water trade system: A case study for the Baiyangdian Basin in Northern China

Increasing inter-sectoral virtual water trade has organized the world into a huge web and different trade sectors will impact each other directly and indirectly through productions or services. It is hard to make reasonable virtual water policies before understanding the interdependency between different trade sectors in virtual water production and consumption. This paper introduces a method, named ecological network analysis, to show the independence and interaction between different trade sectors. A virtual water trade network model of the Baiyangdian Basin was built as an example of how this approach provides insights into the trade system. Control, utility, unit environ and final contribution ratio methods of network analysis were used to identify the quantitative dependency relations, distinguish the beneficiary and the contributor, detect fate of boundary input and output in any component and explore the contribution of each compartment to virtual water trade system. Results showed these methods could well depict the mutual relations in trade system and direct, observable relations may differ from integral ones. This paper revealed ways to optimize virtual water trade structure by adjusting the relationships among compartments, thereby demonstrating how ecological network analysis can be used in future basin water resources management.