CD4 Cell Count and the Risk of AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Adults on Combination Antiretroviral Therapy with a Suppressed Viral Load: A Longitudinal Cohort Study from COHERE

Background

Most adults infected with HIV achieve viral suppression within a year of starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is important to understand the risk of AIDS events or death for patients with a suppressed viral load.

Methods and Findings

Using data from the Collaboration of Observational HIV Epidemiological Research Europe (2010 merger), we assessed the risk of a new AIDS-defining event or death in successfully treated patients. We accumulated episodes of viral suppression for each patient while on cART, each episode beginning with the second of two consecutive plasma viral load measurements <50 copies/µl and ending with either a measurement >500 copies/µl, the first of two consecutive measurements between 50–500 copies/µl, cART interruption or administrative censoring. We used stratified multivariate Cox models to estimate the association between time updated CD4 cell count and a new AIDS event or death or death alone. 75,336 patients contributed 104,265 suppression episodes and were suppressed while on cART for a median 2.7 years. The mortality rate was 4.8 per 1,000 years of viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was always associated with a reduced risk of a new AIDS event or death; with a hazard ratio per 100 cells/µl (95% CI) of: 0.35 (0.30–0.40) for counts <200 cells/µl, 0.81 (0.71–0.92) for counts 200 to <350 cells/µl, 0.74 (0.66–0.83) for counts 350 to <500 cells/µl, and 0.96 (0.92–0.99) for counts ≥500 cells/µl. A higher CD4 cell count became even more beneficial over time for patients with CD4 cell counts <200 cells/µl.

Conclusions

Despite the low mortality rate, the risk of a new AIDS event or death follows a CD4 cell count gradient in patients with viral suppression. A higher CD4 cell count was associated with the greatest benefit for patients with a CD4 cell count <200 cells/µl but still some slight benefit for those with a CD4 cell count ≥500 cells/µl. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Causes of Death among AIDS Patients after Introduction of Free Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) in Three Chinese Provinces, 2010–2011

Introduction

Although AIDS-related deaths have had significant economic and social impact following an increased disease burden internationally, few studies have evaluated the cause of AIDS-related deaths among patients with AIDS on combination anti-retroviral therapy (cART) in China. This study examines the causes of death among AIDS-patients in China and uses a methodology to increase data accuracy compared to the previous studies on AIDS-related mortality in China, that have taken the reported cause of death in the National HIV Registry at face-value.

Methods

Death certificates/medical records were examined and a cross-sectional survey was conducted in three provinces to verify the causes of death among AIDS patients who died between January 1, 2010 and June 30, 2011. Chi-square analysis was conducted to examine the categorical variables by causes of death and by ART status. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to evaluate factors associated with AIDS-related death versus non-AIDS related death.

Results

This study used a sample of 1,109 subjects. The average age at death was 44.5 years. AIDS-related deaths were significantly higher than non-AIDS and injury-related deaths. In the sample, 41.9% (465/1109) were deceased within a year of HIV diagnosis and 52.7% (584/1109) of the deceased AIDS patients were not on cART. For AIDS-related deaths (n = 798), statistically significant factors included CD4 count <200 cells/mm³ at the time of cART initiation (AOR 1.94, 95%CI 1.24–3.05), ART naïve (AOR 1.69, 95%CI 1.09–2.61; p = 0.019) and age <39 years (AOR 2.96, 95%CI 1.77–4.96).

Conclusion

For the AIDS patients that were deceased, only those who initiated cART while at a CD4 count ≥200 cells/mm3 were less likely to die from AIDS-related causes compared to those who didn’t initiate ART at all.     

Prognostic Value of the Fibrosis-4 Index in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy with or without Hepatitis C Virus

Objective

To evaluate the Fibrosis (FIB)-4 index as a predictor of major liver-related events (LRE) and liver-related death (LRD) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1 patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

Design

Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study.

Setting

Italian HIV care centers participating to the ICONA Foundation cohort.

Participants

Treatment-naive patients enrolled in ICONA were selected who: initiated cART, had hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology results, were HBsAg negative, had an available FIB-4 index at cART start and during follow up.

Methods

Cox regression models were used to determine the association of FIB4 with the risk of major LRE (gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, hepato-renal syndrome or hepatocellular carcinoma) or LRD.

Results

Three-thousand four-hundred seventy-five patients were enrolled: 73.3% were males, 27.2% HCV seropositive. At baseline (time of cART initiation) their median age was 39 years, had a median CD4+ T cell count of 260 cells/uL, and median HIV RNA 4.9 log copies/mL, 65.9% had a FIB-4 <1.45, 26.4% 1.45–3.25 and 7.7% >3.25. Over a follow up of 18,662 person-years, 41 events were observed: 25 major LRE and 16 LRD (incidence rate, IR, 2.2 per 1,000 PYFU [95% confidence interval, CI 1.6–3.0]). IR was higher in HCV seropositives as compared to negatives (5.9 vs 0.5 per 1,000 PYFU). Higher baseline FIB-4 category as compared to <1.45 (FIB-4 1.45–3.25: HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.09–11.58; FIB-4>3.25: HR 4.25, 1.21–14.92) and time-updated FIB-4 (FIB-4 1.45–3.25: HR 3.40, 1.02–11.40; FIB-4>3.25: HR 21.24, 6.75–66.84) were independently predictive of major LRE/LRD, after adjusting for HIV- and HCV-related variables, alcohol consumption and type of cART.

Conclusions

The FIB-4 index at cART initiation, and its modification over time are risk factors for major LRE or LRD, independently of infection with HCV and could be used to monitor patients on cART.     

Pretreatment CD4 Cell Slope and Progression to AIDS or Death in HIV-Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy—The CASCADE Collaboration: A Collaboration of 23 Cohort Studies

Background

CD4 cell count is a strong predictor of the subsequent risk of AIDS or death in HIV-infected patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). It is not known whether the rate of CD4 cell decline prior to therapy is related to prognosis and should, therefore, influence the decision on when to initiate cART.

Methods and Findings

We carried out survival analyses of patients from the 23 cohorts of the CASCADE (Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe) collaboration with a known date of HIV seroconversion and with at least two CD4 measurements prior to initiating cART. For each patient, a pre-cART CD4 slope was estimated using a linear mixed effects model. Our primary outcome was time from initiating cART to a first new AIDS event or death. We included 2,820 treatment-naïve patients initiating cART with a median (interquartile range) pre-cART CD4 cell decline of 61 (46–81) cells/µl per year; 255 patients subsequently experienced a new AIDS event or death and 125 patients died. In an analysis adjusted for established risk factors, the hazard ratio for AIDS or death was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.97–1.04) for each 10 cells/µl per year reduction in pre-cART CD4 cell decline. There was also no association between pre-cART CD4 cell slope and survival. Alternative estimates of CD4 cell slope gave similar results. In 1,731 AIDS-free patients with >350 CD4 cells/µl from the pre-cART era, the rate of CD4 cell decline was also not significantly associated with progression to AIDS or death (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.94–1.03, for each 10 cells/µl per year reduction in CD4 cell decline).

Conclusions

The CD4 cell slope does not improve the prediction of clinical outcome in patients with a CD4 cell count above 350 cells/µl. Knowledge of the current CD4 cell count is sufficient when deciding whether to initiate cART in asymptomatic patients. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Efficacy and Safety of Antiretroviral Therapy Initiated One Week after Tuberculosis Therapy in Patients with CD4 Counts < 200 Cells/μL: TB-HAART Study,a Randomized Clinical Trial

BackgroundGiven the high death rate the first two months of tuberculosis (TB) therapy in HIV patients, it is critical defining the optimal time to initiate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).MethodsA randomized, open-label, clinical trial comparing efficacy and safety of efavirenz-based cART initiated one week, four weeks, and eight weeks after TB therapy in patients with baseline CD4 count < 200 cells/μL was conducted. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality rate at 48 weeks. The secondary endpoints were hepatotoxicity-requiring interruption of TB therapy, TB-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome, new AIDS defining illnesses, CD4 counts, HIV RNA levels, and AFB smear conversion rates. All analyses were intention-to-treat.ResultsWe studied 478 patients with median CD4 count of 73 cells/μL and 5.2 logs HIV RNA randomized to week one (n = 163), week four (n = 160), and week eight (n = 155). Sixty-four deaths (13.4%) occurred in 339.2 person-years. All-cause mortality rates at 48 weeks were 25 per 100 person-years in week one, 18 per 100 person-years in week four and 15 per 100 person-years in week eight (P = 0.2 by the log-rank test). All-cause mortality incidence rate ratios in subgroups with CD4 count below 50 cells/μL versus above were 2.8 in week one (95% CI 1.2–6.7), 3.1 in week four (95% CI 1.2–8.6) and 5.1 in week eight (95% CI 1.8–16). Serum albumin < 3gms/dL (adjusted HR, aHR = 2.3) and CD4 < 50 cells/μL (aHR = 2.7) were independent predictors of mortality. Compared with similar subgroups from weeks four and eight, first-line TB treatment interruption was high in week one deaths (P = 0.03) and in the CD4 subgroup <50 cells/μL (P = 0.02).ConclusionsAntiretroviral therapy one week after TB therapy doesn’t improve overall survival. Despite increased mortality with CD4 < 50 cells/μL, we recommend cART later than the first week of TB therapy to avoid serious hepatotoxicity and treatment interruption.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT 01315301","term_id":"NCT01315301"}}NCT 01315301     

Incidence of AIDS-Defining Opportunistic Infections and Mortality during Antiretroviral Therapy in a Cohort of Adult HIV-Infected Individuals in Hanoi, 2007-2014

Background

Although the prognosis for HIV-infected individuals has improved after antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up, limited data exist on the incidence of AIDS-defining opportunistic infections (ADIs) and mortality during ART in resource-limited settings.

Methods

HIV-infected adults in two large hospitals in urban Hanoi were enrolled to the prospective cohort, from October 2007 through December 2013. Those who started ART less than one year before enrollment were assigned to the survival analysis. Data on ART history and ADIs were collected retrospectively at enrollment and followed-up prospectively until April 2014.

Results

Of 2,070 cohort participants, 1,197 were eligible for analysis and provided 3,446 person-years (PYs) of being on ART. Overall, 161 ADIs episodes were noted at a median of 3.20 months after ART initiation (range 0.03–75.8) with an incidence 46.7/1,000 PYs (95% confidence interval [CI] 39.8–54.5). The most common ADI was tuberculosis with an incidence of 29.9/1,000 PYs. Mortality after ART initiation was 8.68/1,000 PYs and 45% (19/45) died of AIDS-related illnesses. Age over 50 years at ART initiation was significantly associated with shorter survival after controlling for baseline CD4 count, but neither having injection drug use (IDU) history nor previous ADIs were associated with poor survival. Semi-competing risks analysis in 951 patients without ADIs history prior to ART showed those who developed ADIs after starting ART were at higher risk of death in the first six months than after six months.

Conclusion

ADIs were not rare in spite of being on effective ART. Age over 50 years, but not IDU history, was associated with shorter survival in the cohort. This study provides in-depth data on the prognosis of patients on ART in Vietnam during the first decade of ART scale-up.     

The HIV-Brazil Cohort Study: Design,Methods and Participant Characteristics

Background

The HIV-Brazil Cohort Study was established to analyze the effectiveness of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and the impact of this treatment on morbidity, quality of life (QOL) and mortality. The study design, patients’ profiles and characteristics of cART initiation between 2003 and 2010 were described.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Since 2003, the HIV-Brazil Cohort has been following HIV-infected adults receiving cART at 26 public health care facilities, using routine clinical care data and self-reported QOL questionnaires. When not otherwise available, data are obtained from national information systems. The main outcomes of interest are diseases related or unrelated to HIV; suppression of viral replication; adverse events; virological, clinical and immunological failures; changes in the cART; and mortality. For the 5,061 patients who started cART between 2003 and 2010, the median follow-up time was 4.1 years (IQR 2.2–5.9 years) with an 83.4% retention rate. Patient profiles were characterized by a predominance of men (male/female ratio 1.7∶1), with a mean age of 36.9 years (SD 9.9 years); 55.2% had been infected with HIV via heterosexual contact. The majority of patients (53.4%) initiated cART with a CD4⁺ T-cell count ≤200 cells/mm³. The medications most often used in the various treatment regimens were efavirenz (59.7%) and lopinavir/ritonavir (18.2%). The proportion of individuals achieving viral suppression within the first 12 months of cART use was 77.4% (95% CI 76.1–78.6). Nearly half (45.4%) of the patients presented HIV-related clinical manifestations after starting cART, and the AIDS mortality rate was 13.9 per 1,000 person-years.

Conclusions/Significance

Results from cART use in the daily practice of health services remain relatively unknown in low- and middle-income countries, and studies with the characteristics of the HIV-Brazil Cohort contribute to minimizing these shortcomings, given its scope and patient profile, which is similar to that of the AIDS epidemic in the country.     

Morbidity and Mortality According to Latest CD4+ Cell Count among HIV Positive Individuals in South Africa Who Enrolled in Project Phidisa

Background

Short-term morbidity and mortality rates for HIV positive soldiers in the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) would inform decisions about deployment and HIV disease management. Risks were determined according to the latest CD4+ cell count and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV positive individuals in the SANDF and their dependents.

Methods and Findings

A total of 7,114 participants were enrolled and followed for mortality over a median of 4.7 years (IQR: 1.9, 7.1 years). For a planned subset (5,976), progression of disease (POD) and grade 4, potentially life-threatening events were also ascertained. CD4+ count and viral load were measured every 3 to 6 months. Poisson regression was used to compare event rates by latest CD4+ count (<50, 50–99, 100–199, 200–349, 350–499, 500+) with a focus on upper three strata, and to estimate relative risks (RRs) (ART/no ART). Median entry CD4+ was 207 cells/mm³. During follow-up over 70% were prescribed ART. Over follow-up 1,226 participants died; rates ranged from 57.6 (< 50 cells) to 0.8 (500+ cells) per 100 person years (py). Compared to those with latest CD4+ 200–349 (2.2/100py), death rates were significantly lower (p<0.001), as expected, for those with 350–499 (0.9/100py) and with 500+ cells (0.8/100py). The composite outcome of death, POD or grade 4 events occurred in 2,302 participants (4,045 events); rates were similar in higher CD4+ count strata (9.4 for 350–499 and 7.9 for 500+ cells) and lower than those with counts 200–349 cells (13.5) (p<0.001). For those with latest CD4+ 350+ cells, 63% of the composite outcomes (680 of 1,074) were grade 4 events.

Conclusion

Rates of morbidity and mortality are lowest among those with CD4+ count of 350 or higher and rates do not differ for those with counts of 350–499 versus 500+ cells. Grade 4 events are the predominant morbidity for participants with CD4+ counts of 350+ cells.     

Predictors of Mortality among Patients Enrolled on Antiretroviral Therapy in Aksum Hospital,Northern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Since launching of antiretroviral (ART) treatment, the numbers of patients enrolled in to ART are increasing in many developing countries. But many studies done across Africa including Ethiopia on antiretroviral therapy programs have shown higher mortality at the first six months of treatment initiation. But the factors associated with this high mortality are poorly characterized. So this study aims to determine mortality and identify predictors of it among patients on ART.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study was employed among a total of 520 records of patients who were enrolled on antiretroviral therapy in Aksum hospital from September 2006 to August 2011. Baseline patient records were extracted from electronic and paper based medical records database and analysed using Kaplan Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard model to identify the independent predictors of mortality of patients on ART.

Results

A total of 46 (8.85%) deaths was observed giving an overall mortality rate of 3.2 per 100 person-years. The independent predictor of mortality identified for this cohort were haemoglobin level <11 mg/dl (Hazard Ratio (HR) = 1.9, 95%-CI = 1.01, 3.52), CD4 cell counts lower than 50 cells/µl (HR = 2.1, 95%- CI = 1.13,3.89), Male gender (HR = 1.9, 95%-CI = 1.01,3.52), Weight <40 kg (HR = 2.3,95% CI = 1.24,4.55), primary level of education and lower (HR = 2.6, 95%- CI = 1.29,5.55).

Conclusions

The over all mortality of adults patients on ART was low but higher in the early months of ART initiation. low levels of haemoglobin <11 gm/dl, lower CD4 cell count, male gender, weight <40 Kg and individuals who have primary level of education and lower were indentified as the independent predictors of mortality. For this reason, early initiation of ART despite the CD4 count and method of HIV diagnosis, nutritional support and close monitoring of patients in the early periods of ART treatment initiation is very crucial to improve patient survival.     

Retention in Care of HIV-Infected Children from HIV Test to Start of Antiretroviral Therapy: Systematic Review

Background

In adults it is well documented that there are substantial losses to the programme between HIV testing and start of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The magnitude and reasons for loss to follow-up and death between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in children are not well defined.

Methods

We searched the PubMed and EMBASE databases for studies on children followed between HIV diagnosis and start of ART in low-income settings. We examined the proportion of children with a CD4 cell count/percentage after after being diagnosed with HIV infection, the number of treatment-eligible children starting ART and predictors of loss to programme. Data were extracted in duplicate.

Results

Eight studies from sub-Saharan Africa and two studies from Asia with a total of 10,741 children were included. Median age ranged from 2.2 to 6.5 years. Between 78.0 and 97.0% of HIV-infected children subsequently had a CD4 cell count/percentage measured, 63.2 to 90.7% of children with an eligibility assessment met the eligibility criteria for the particular setting and time and 39.5 to 99.4% of the eligible children started ART. Three studies reported an association between low CD4 count/percentage and ART initiation while no association was reported for gender. Only two studies reported on pre-ART mortality and found rates of 13 and 6 per 100 person-years.

Conclusion

Most children who presented for HIV care met eligibility criteria for ART. There is an urgent need for strategies to improve the access to and retention to care of HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings.     

Survival of HIV-infected adolescents on antiretroviral therapy in Uganda: findings from a nationally representative cohort in Uganda

Background

Adolescents have been identified as a high-risk group for poor adherence to and defaulting from combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) care. However, data on outcomes for adolescents on cART in resource-limited settings remain scarce.

Methods

We developed an observational study of patients who started cART at The AIDS Service Organization (TASO) in Uganda between 2004 and 2009. Age was stratified into three groups: children (≤10 years), adolescents (11–19 years), and adults (≥20 years). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated to describe time to mortality and loss to follow-up, and Cox regression used to model associations between age and mortality and loss to follow-up. To address loss to follow up, we applied a weighted analysis that assumes 50% of lost patients had died.

Findings

A total of 23,367 patients were included in this analysis, including 810 (3.5%) children, 575 (2.5%) adolescents, and 21 982 (94.0%) adults. A lower percentage of children (5.4%) died during their cART treatment compared to adolescents (8.5%) and adults (10%). After adjusting for confounding, other features predicted mortality than age alone. Mortality was higher among males (p<0.001), patients with a low initial CD4 cell count (p<0.001), patients with advanced WHO clinical disease stage (p<0.001), and shorter duration of time receiving cART (p<0.001). The crude mortality rate was lower for children (22.8 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI: 16.1, 29.5), than adolescents (36.5 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI: 26.3, 46.8) and adults (37.5 per 1000 person-years; 95% CI: 35.9, 39.1).

Interpretation

This study is the largest assessment of adolescents receiving cART in Africa. Adolescents did not have cART mortality outcomes different from adults or children.     

Results of antiretroviral treatment interruption and intensification in advanced multi-drug resistant HIV infection from the OPTIMA trial

Background

Guidance is needed on best medical management for advanced HIV disease with multidrug resistance (MDR) and limited retreatment options. We assessed two novel antiretroviral (ARV) treatment approaches in this setting.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a 2×2 factorial randomized open label controlled trial in patients with a CD4 count ≤300 cells/µl who had ARV treatment (ART) failure requiring retreatment, to two options (a) re-treatment with either standard (≤4 ARVs) or intensive (≥5 ARVs) ART and b) either treatment starting immediately or after a 12-week monitored ART interruption. Primary outcome was time to developing a first AIDS-defining event (ADE) or death from any cause. Analysis was by intention to treat. From 2001 to 2006, 368 patients were randomized. At baseline, mean age was 48 years, 2% were women, median CD4 count was 106/µl, mean viral load was 4.74 log₁₀ copies/ml, and 59% had a prior AIDS diagnosis. Median follow-up was 4.0 years in 1249 person-years of observation. There were no statistically significant differences in the primary composite outcome of ADE or death between re-treatment options of standard versus intensive ART (hazard ratio 1.17; CI 0.86–1.59), or between immediate retreatment initiation versus interruption before re-treatment (hazard ratio 0.93; CI 0.68–1.30), or in the rate of non-HIV associated serious adverse events between re-treatment options.

Conclusions

We did not observe clinical benefit or harm assessed by the primary outcome in this largest and longest trial exploring both ART interruption and intensification in advanced MDR HIV infection with poor retreatment options.

Trial Registration

Clinicaltrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00050089","term_id":"NCT00050089"}}NCT00050089     

Randomized trial of time-limited interruptions of protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy (ART) vs. continuous therapy for HIV-1 infection

Background

The clinical outcomes of short interruptions of PI-based ART regimens remains undefined.

Methods

A 2-arm non-inferiority trial was conducted on 53 HIV-1 infected South African participants with viral load <50 copies/ml and CD4 T cell count >450 cells/µl on stavudine (or zidovudine), lamivudine and lopinavir/ritonavir. Subjects were randomized to a) sequential 2, 4 and 8-week ART interruptions or b) continuous ART (cART). Primary analysis was based on the proportion of CD4 count >350 cells(c)/ml over 72 weeks. Adherence, HIV-1 drug resistance, and CD4 count rise over time were analyzed as secondary endpoints.

Results

The proportions of CD4 counts >350 cells/µl were 82.12% for the intermittent arm and 93.73 for the cART arm; the difference of 11.95% was above the defined 10% threshold for non-inferiority (upper limit of 97.5% CI, 24.1%; 2-sided CI: −0.16, 23.1). No clinically significant differences in opportunistic infections, adverse events, adherence or viral resistance were noted; after randomization, long-term CD4 rise was observed only in the cART arm.

Conclusion

We are unable to conclude that short PI-based ART interruptions are non-inferior to cART in retention of immune reconstitution; however, short interruptions did not lead to a greater rate of resistance mutations or adverse events than cART suggesting that this regimen may be more forgiving than NNRTIs if interruptions in therapy occur.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00100646","term_id":"NCT00100646"}}NCT00100646     

Gender Differences in Survival among Adult Patients Starting Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa: A Multicentre Cohort Study

Background

Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART.

Methods and Findings

Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population.Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22–1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86–1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located.

Conclusions

HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Association of age with mortality and virological and immunological response to antiretroviral therapy in rural South African adults

Objective

To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort.

Design

Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme.

Methods

Adults initiating ART 1^st August 2004 - 31^st October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16–24 years) mid-age adults (25–49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points.

Results

8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25–49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90–7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11–7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34–10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0–3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3–12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0–3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12months.

Conclusions

Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.     

Closing the Gap: Increases in Life Expectancy among Treated HIV-Positive Individuals in the United States and Canada

Background

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly increased survival among HIV-positive adults in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, but gains in life expectancy for this region have not been well characterized. We aim to estimate temporal changes in life expectancy among HIV-positive adults on ART from 2000–2007 in the U.S. and Canada.

Methods

Participants were from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), aged ≥20 years and on ART. Mortality rates were calculated using participants'' person-time from January 1, 2000 or ART initiation until death, loss to follow-up, or administrative censoring December 31, 2007. Life expectancy at age 20, defined as the average number of additional years that a person of a specific age will live, provided the current age-specific mortality rates remain constant, was estimated using abridged life tables.

Results

The crude mortality rate was 19.8/1,000 person-years, among 22,937 individuals contributing 82,022 person-years and 1,622 deaths. Life expectancy increased from 36.1 [standard error (SE) 0.5] to 51.4 [SE 0.5] years from 2000–2002 to 2006–2007. Men and women had comparable life expectancies in all periods except the last (2006–2007). Life expectancy was lower for individuals with a history of injection drug use, non-whites, and in patients with baseline CD4 counts <350 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

A 20-year-old HIV-positive adult on ART in the U.S. or Canada is expected to live into their early 70 s, a life expectancy approaching that of the general population. Differences by sex, race, HIV transmission risk group, and CD4 count remain.     

Effectiveness of early antiretroviral therapy initiation to improve survival among HIV-infected adults with tuberculosis: a retrospective cohort study

Background

Randomized clinical trials examining the optimal time to initiate combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-infected adults with sputum smear-positive tuberculosis (TB) disease have demonstrated improved survival among those who initiate cART earlier during TB treatment. Since these trials incorporated rigorous diagnostic criteria, it is unclear whether these results are generalizable to the vast majority of HIV-infected patients with TB, for whom standard diagnostic tools are unavailable. We aimed to examine whether early cART initiation improved survival among HIV-infected adults who were diagnosed with TB in a clinical setting.

Methods and Findings

We retrospectively reviewed charts for 308 HIV-infected adults in Rwanda with a CD4 count≤350 cells/µl and a TB diagnosis. We estimated the effect of cART on survival using marginal structural models and simulated 2-y survival curves for the cohort under different cART strategies:start cART 15, 30, 60, or 180 d after TB treatment or never start cART. We conducted secondary analyses with composite endpoints of (1) death, default, or lost to follow-up and (2) death, hospitalization, or serious opportunistic infection. Early cART initiation led to a survival benefit that was most marked for individuals with low CD4 counts. For individuals with CD4 counts of 50 or 100 cells/µl, cART initiation at day 15 yielded 2-y survival probabilities of 0.82 (95% confidence interval: [0.76, 0.89]) and 0.86 (95% confidence interval: [0.80, 0.92]), respectively. These were significantly higher than the probabilities computed under later start times. Results were similar for the endpoint of death, hospitalization, or serious opportunistic infection. cART initiation at day 15 versus later times was protective against death, default, or loss to follow-up, regardless of CD4 count. As with any observational study, the validity of these findings assumes that biases from residual confounding by unmeasured factors and from model misspecification are small.

Conclusions

Early cART reduced mortality among individuals with low CD4 counts and improved retention in care, regardless of CD4 count. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Blunted Response to Combination Antiretroviral Therapy in HIV Elite Controllers: An International HIV Controller Collaboration

Objective

HIV “elite controllers” (ECs) spontaneously control viral load, but some eventually require combination antiretroviral treatment (cART), due to a loss of viral control or a decline in CD4 T-cell counts. Here we studied the CD4 T-cell count dynamics after cART initiation among 34 ECs followed in U.S. and European cohorts, by comparison with chronically viremic patients (VIRs).

Methods

ECs were defined as patients with at least ≥5 viral load (VL) measurements below 400 copies/mL during at least a 5-year period despite never receiving ART and were selected from the French ANRS CO18 cohort, the U.S. SCOPE cohort, the International HIV Controllers study and the European CASCADE collaboration. VIRs were selected from the ANRS COPANA cohort of recently-diagnosed (<1 year) ART-naïve HIV-1-infected adults. CD4 T-cell count dynamics after cART initiation in both groups were modelled with piecewise mixed linear models.

Results

After cART initiation, CD4 T-cell counts showed a biphasic rise in VIRs with: an initial rapid increase during the first 3 months (+0.63/month), followed by +0.19/month. This first rapid phase was not observed in ECs, in whom the CD4Tc count increased steadily, at a rate similar to that of the second phase observed in VIRs. After cART initiation at a CD4 T-cell count of 300/mm³, the estimated mean CD4 T-cell gain during the first 12 months was 139/mm³ in VIRs and 80/mm³ in ECs (p = 0.048).

Conclusions

cART increases CD4 T-cell counts in elite controllers, albeit less markedly than in other patients.     

Increased Risk of Serious Non-AIDS-Related Events in HIV-Infected Subjects on Antiretroviral Therapy Associated with a Low CD4/CD8 Ratio

Background

A low CD4/CD8 ratio has been identified in the general population as a hallmark of inmmunosenescence and a surrogate of all-cause mortality. We aimed to investigate in treated HIV-infected individuals the relationship between the CD4/CD8 ratio and serious non-AIDS events.

Methods

Case-control study within a prospective hospital-based cohort of HIV-infected subjects during at least one year of ART-mediated viral suppression. Cases were patients with serious non-AIDS events (non-AIDS malignancies, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage kidney disease), and controls individuals who did not developed non-AIDS events during follow-up. Data were analyzed using ROC analysis and multivariate logistic regression. Conditional logistic regression was performed in 200 cases/controls matched by age, sex, nadir CD4 and proximal CD4 counts.

Results

We analyzed 407 subjects (109 cases, 298 controls). The CD4/CD8 ratio was lower in cases (0.44 vs. 0.70, P<0.0001), with higher discriminatory ability for the detection of non-AIDS events than the CD4 count, CD8 count and nadir CD4. Multivariate analyses (adjusted for age, sex, nadir CD4, proximal CD4 count, year of ART initiation and ART duration) confirmed the independent association of a low CD4/CD8 ratio with the risk of non-AIDS morbidity (per CD4/CD8 ratio quartile decrease, OR, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.3–6.2) and non-AIDS mortality (OR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.5–5.3).

Conclusions

The CD4/CD8 ratio provides additional information to the CD4 counts and nadir CD4 in treated HIV-infected individuals, since it is independently associated with the risk of non-AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. This association is robust and maintained within different subgroups of patients.     

Gender differences in immune reconstitution: a multicentric cohort analysis in sub-Saharan Africa

Background

In sub-Saharan Africa, men living with HIV often start ART at more advanced stages of disease and have higher early mortality than women. We investigated gender difference in long-term immune reconstitution.

Methods/Principal Findings

Antiretroviral-naïve adults who received ART for at least 9 months in four HIV programs in sub-Saharan Africa were included. Multivariate mixed linear models were used to examine gender differences in immune reconstitution on first line ART.A total of 21,708 patients (68% women) contributed to 61,912 person-years of follow-up. At ART start,. Median CD4 at ART were 149 [IQR 85–206] for women and 125 cells/µL [IQR 63–187] for men. After the first year on ART, immune recovery was higher in women than in men, and gender-based differences increased by 20 CD4 cells/µL per year on average (95% CI 16–23; P<0.001). Up to 6 years after ART start, patients with low initial CD4 levels experienced similar gains compared to patients with high initial levels, including those with CD4>250cells/µL (difference between patients with <50 cells/µL and those with >250 was 284 cells/µL; 95% CI 272–296; LR test for interaction with time p = 0.63). Among patients with initial CD4 count of 150–200 cells/µL, women reached 500 CD4 cells after 2.4 years on ART (95% CI 2.4–2.5) and men after 4.5 years (95% CI 4.1–4.8) of ART use.

Conclusion

Women achieved better long-term immune response to ART, reaching CD4 level associated with lower risks of AIDS related morbidity and mortality quicker than men.