Tracking Construction Material over Space and Time: Prospective and Geo‐referenced Modeling of Building Stocks and Construction Material Flows

Construction material plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impacts of buildings. In order to investigate impacts of materials on a building level, we present a bottom‐up building stock model that uses three‐dimensional and geo‐referenced building data to determine volumetric information of material stocks in Swiss residential buildings. We used a probabilistic modeling approach to calculate future material flows for the individual buildings. We investigated six scenarios with different assumptions concerning per‐capita floor area, building stock turnover, and construction material. The Swiss building stock will undergo important structural changes by 2035. While this will lead to a reduced number in new constructions, material flows will increase. Total material inflow decreases by almost half while outflows double. In 2055, the total amount of material in‐ and outflows are almost equal, which represents an important opportunity to close construction material cycles. Total environmental impacts due to production and disposal of construction material remain relatively stable over time. The cumulated impact is slightly reduced for the wood‐based scenario. The scenario with more insulation material leads to slightly higher material‐related emissions. An increase in per‐capita floor area or material turnover will lead to a considerable increase in impacts. The new modeling approach overcomes the limitations of previous bottom‐up building models and allows for investigating building material flows and stocks in space and time. This supports the development of tailored strategies to reduce the material footprint and environmental impacts of buildings and settlements.     

Projection of Construction and Demolition Waste in Norway

Current waste generation from the construction and demolition industry (C&D industry) in Norway is about 1.25 million tonnes per year. This article presents a procedure for projection of future waste amounts by estimating the activity level in the C&D industry, determining specific waste generation factors related to this activity, and finally calculating projections on flows of waste materials leaving the stocks in use and moving into the waste management system. This is done through a simple model of stocks and flows of buildings and materials. Monte Carlo simulation is used in the calculations to account for uncertainties related to the input parameters in order to make the results more robust. The results show a significant increase in C&D waste for the years to come, especially for the large fractions of concrete/bricks and wood. These projections can be a valuable source of information to predict the future need for waste treatment capacity, the dominant waste fractions, and the challenges in future waste handling systems. The proposed method is used in a forthcoming companion article for eco-efficiency modeling within an evaluation of a C&D waste system.     

Maintenance and Expansion: Modeling Material Stocks and Flows for Residential Buildings and Transportation Networks in the EU25

Material stocks are an important part of the social metabolism. Owing to long service lifetimes of stocks, they not only shape resource flows during construction, but also during use, maintenance, and at the end of their useful lifetime. This makes them an important topic for sustainable development. In this work, a model of stocks and flows for nonmetallic minerals in residential buildings, roads, and railways in the EU25, from 2004 to 2009 is presented. The changing material composition of the stock is modeled using a typology of 72 residential buildings, four road and two railway types, throughout the EU25. This allows for estimating the amounts of materials in in‐use stocks of residential buildings and transportation networks, as well as input and output flows. We compare the magnitude of material demands for expansion versus those for maintenance of existing stock. Then, recycling potentials are quantitatively explored by comparing the magnitude of estimated input, waste, and recycling flows from 2004 to 2009 and in a business‐as‐usual scenario for 2020. Thereby, we assess the potential impacts of the European Waste Framework Directive, which strives for a significant increase in recycling. We find that in the EU25, consisting of highly industrialized countries, a large share of material inputs are directed at maintaining existing stocks. Proper management of existing transportation networks and residential buildings is therefore crucial for the future size of flows of nonmetallic minerals.     

Dynamic Modeling of In‐Use Cement Stocks in the United States

A dynamic substance‐flow model is developed to characterize the stocks and flows of cement utilized during the 20th century in the United States, using the generic cement life cycle as a systems boundary. The motivation for estimating historical inventories of cement stocks and flows is to provide accurate estimates of contemporary cement in‐use stocks in U.S. infrastructure and future discards to relevant stakeholders in U.S. infrastructure, such as the federal and state highway administrators, departments of transportation, public and private utilities, and the construction and cement industries. Such information will assist in planning future rehabilitation projects and better life cycle management of infrastructure systems. In the present policy environment of climate negotiations, estimates of in‐use cement infrastructure can provide insights about to what extent built environment can act as a carbon sink over its lifetime. The rate of addition of new stock, its composition, and the repair of existing stock are key determinants of infrastructure sustainability. Based upon a probability of failure approach, a dynamic stock and flow model was developed utilizing three statistical lifetime distributions—Weibull, gamma, and lognormal—for each cement end‐use. The model‐derived estimate of the “in‐use” cement stocks in the United States is in the range of 4.2 to 4.4 billion metric tons (gigatonnes, Gt). This indicates that 82% to 87% of cement utilized during the last century is still in use. On a per capita basis, this is equivalent to 14.3 to 15.0 tonnes of in‐use cement stock per person. The in‐use cement stock per capita has doubled over the last 50 years, although the rate of growth has slowed.     

Anthropogenic Carbon Stock Dynamics of Pulp and Paper Products in Germany

Carbon‐based materials (CBMs) for energetic and material purposes combine biogenic and anthropogenic carbon cycles. In the latter, numerous manufactured products with various in‐use lifespans accumulate as anthropogenic carbon stocks. Understanding the behavior of these stocks is an important requirement to estimate not only future waste amounts, source for secondary raw materials, but also the impacts and effects in carbon emissions and carbon management. Previous models have estimated material stock changes; however, a lack of research in carbon stocks is perceived. Moreover, studies follow in‐use lifespan estimation approaches, such as decay functions, which do not coincide with observed consumption and waste treatment patterns. In the first part of this article, we present a carbon stock‐flow model to analyze inter‐relationships between carbon flows and stocks from raw materials to waste treatment processes considering a consumer perspective, where the dynamics of anthropogenic carbon stocks are completely described. In the second part, we study the pulp and paper industry in Germany under a scenario approach to analyze the behavior, development, and impacts of paper stocks and flows between 2010 and 2040. The model provided coherent results, with industrial data estimating 33.9 million metric tons in 2010 in paper stocks, equivalent to 410 kilograms per person. Consumption per capita and in‐use lifespan of products were identified as the most significant variables in carbon stock building. Model simulations show a sustained growth in stocks for the next 30 years, with increase in waste and carbon emissions. But in combination with recycling and reuse mechanisms and consumption patterns, environmental impacts are reduced.     

Dynamic Substance Flow Analysis of Neodymium and Dysprosium Associated with Neodymium Magnets in Japan

Recycling of neodymium and dysprosium is of great interest because of the rapid growth in their demand and limited supply of new resources. To promote recovery from end‐of‐life (EoL) products, it is desirable to quantify the recycling potentials of neodymium and dysprosium by their end use. This study characterized the substance flows of neodymium and dysprosium associated with neodymium magnets in Japan by conducting a dynamic substance flow analysis. A bottom‐up approach was employed in the analysis to estimate annual consumption by end use. Factors used in the analysis were the amounts of rare earth contents, weight of a magnet used for each product, adoption ratios of neodymium magnet usage in each product, and lifetime of products. It was found that the amount of neodymium entering use was approximately half of the domestic consumption; the balance existing in final products that were exported from Japan. The economic feasibility of recycling neodymium magnets was evaluated for their largest two end uses: driving motors in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and compressors in air conditioners. It was found that recycling the neodymium magnets used in the driving motors has the potential for economic feasibility in Japan. The result showed that lower transportation costs for recovered magnets can make the recycling economically feasible regardless of the content rate and the price of metals. The future increase of EoL HEVs contributes to the feasibility of recycling with a profit in the upcoming years. Strategies for more profitable recycling are concentrating scrap motors or magnets among recycling factories or selecting specific factories that deal with EoL HEVs.     

Transferability of Material Composition Indicators for Residential Buildings: A Conceptual Approach Based on a German‐Japanese Comparison

Most anthropogenic material stocks and flows are associated with the building sector. Several recent studies have developed material composition indicators (MCIs) suitable for calculating material stocks and flows of the building sector using bottom‐up approaches, which hold great potential to provide information to support resource efficiency policies. A major limitation is the lack of country‐specific MCIs. This study aims to introduce a concept for a better transferability of MCI across different contexts by proposing requirements for defining MCIs and to discuss options and limits of the transferability. We take existing MCIs for residential buildings in Germany and Japan as case studies and make them comparable by applying harmonization methods. Based on that, similarities and differences are systematically identified and discussed, considering their socioeconomic, cultural, technical, and environmental factors. Our results indicate significant limitations to the transferability of MCIs for detached houses, while bigger apartment complexes show greater homogeneity despite the very different environments in which they are constructed. This indicates that while it is possible to assume foreign MCIs as plausible for large constructions, local coefficients need to be estimated for smaller single‐family homes.     

Unified Materials Information System (UMIS): An Integrated Material Stocks and Flows Data Structure

Modern society depends on the use of many diverse materials. Effectively managing these materials is becoming increasingly important and complex, from the analysis of supply chains, to quantifying their environmental impacts, to understanding future resource availability. Material stocks and flows data enable such analyses, but currently exist mainly as discrete packages, with highly varied type, scope, and structure. These factors constitute a powerful barrier to holistic integration and thus universal analysis of existing and yet to be published material stocks and flows data. We present the Unified Materials Information System (UMIS) to overcome this barrier by enabling material stocks and flows data to be comprehensively integrated across space, time, materials, and data type independent of their disaggregation, without loss of information, and avoiding double counting. UMIS can therefore be applied to structure diverse material stocks and flows data and their metadata across material systems analysis methods such as material flow analysis (MFA), input‐output analysis, and life cycle assessment. UMIS uniquely labels and visualizes processes and flows in UMIS diagrams; therefore, material stocks and flows data visualized in UMIS diagrams can be individually referenced in databases and computational models. Applications of UMIS to restructure existing material stocks and flows data represented by block flow diagrams, system dynamics diagrams, Sankey diagrams, matrices, and derived using the economy‐wide MFA classification system are presented to exemplify use. UMIS advances the capabilities with which complex quantitative material systems analysis, archiving, and computation of material stocks and flows data can be performed.     

Substance Flow Analysis of Wastes Containing Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers

The present article examines flows and stocks of Stockholm Convention regulated pollutants, commercial penta‐ and octabrominated diphenyl ether (cPentaBDE, cOctaBDE), on a city level. The goals are to (1) identify sources, pathways, and sinks of these compounds in the city of Vienna, (2) determine the fractions that reach final sinks, and (3) develop recommendations for waste management to ensure their minimum recycling and maximum transfer to appropriate final sinks. By means of substance flow analysis (SFA) and scenario analysis, it was found that the key flows of cPentaBDE stem from construction materials. Therefore, end‐of‐life (EOL) plastic materials used for construction must be separated and properly treated, for example, in a state‐of‐the‐art municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerator. In the case of cOctaBDE, the main flows are waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE) and, possibly, vehicles. Most EOL vehicles are exported from Vienna and pose a continental, rather than a local, problem. According to the modeling, approximately 73% of cOctaBDE reached the final sink MSW incinerator, and 17% returned back to consumption by recycling. Secondary plastics, made from WEEE, may thus contain significant amounts of cOctaBDE; however, uncertainties are high. According to uncertainty analysis, the major cause is the lack of reliable values regarding cOctaBDE concentrations in European WEEE categories 3 and 4, including cathode ray tube monitors for computers and televisions. We recommend establishing a new, goal‐oriented data set by additional analyses of waste constituents and plastic recycling samples, as well as establishing reliable mass balances of polybrominated diphenyl ethers’ flows and stocks by means of SFA.     

Measuring Progress towards a Circular Economy: A Monitoring Framework for Economy‐wide Material Loop Closing in the EU28

The concept of a circular economy (CE) is gaining increasing attention from policy makers, industry, and academia. There is a rapidly evolving debate on definitions, limitations, the contribution to a wider sustainability agenda, and a need for indicators to assess the effectiveness of circular economy measures at larger scales. Herein, we present a framework for a comprehensive and economy‐wide biophysical assessment of a CE, utilizing and systematically linking official statistics on resource extraction and use and waste flows in a mass‐balanced approach. This framework builds on the widely applied framework of economy‐wide material flow accounting and expands it by integrating waste flows, recycling, and downcycled materials. We propose a comprehensive set of indicators that measure the scale and circularity of total material and waste flows and their socioeconomic and ecological loop closing. We applied this framework in the context of monitoring efforts for a CE in the European Union (EU28) for the year 2014. We found that 7.4 gigatons (Gt) of materials were processed in the EU and only 0.71 Gt of them were secondary materials. The derived input socioeconomic cycling rate of materials was therefore 9.6%. Further, of the 4.8 Gt of interim output flows, 14.8% were recycled or downcycled. Based on these findings and our first efforts in assessing sensitivity of the framework, a number of improvements are deemed necessary: improved reporting of wastes, explicit modeling of societal in‐use stocks, introduction of criteria for ecological cycling, and disaggregated mass‐based indicators to evaluate environmental impacts of different materials and circularity initiatives. This article met the requirements for a gold – gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges .     

Estimation of Copper In‐use Stocks in Nanjing,China

Copper (Cu) is an essential but supply‐restricted resource in China. Characterization of in‐use stocks can provide useful instruction for the future recycling of copper. This article attempts to estimate copper in‐use stocks in a Chinese city. To this purpose, an extensive bottom‐up estimate of copper stocks in use in Nanjing in the year 2009 was conducted. The results are a total stock estimate of 295 gigagrams (Gg) of copper or 46.9 kilograms (kg) of copper per capita for 2009. Infrastructure, equipment, and buildings contain 42.0%, 26.1%, and 28.1% of the total stock, respectively, indicating that these three categories are principal potential reservoirs of a secondary copper resource. The copper in transportation amounts to only about 3.7% of the total amount. The per capita stock was compared with similar studies carried out in other regions of the world, and the results show that the Nanjing level is significantly lower than developed countries. On the whole, our results show that electric power transmission and distribution systems, buildings, household durables, and industrial equipment are the four largest potential reservoirs of copper scrap.     

Modeling and empirical validation of long‐term carbon sequestration in forests (France, 1850–2015)

The development of appropriate tools to quantify long‐term carbon (C) budgets following forest transitions, that is, shifts from deforestation to afforestation, and to identify their drivers are key issues for forging sustainable land‐based climate‐change mitigation strategies. Here, we develop a new modeling approach, CRAFT (CaRbon Accumulation in ForesTs) based on widely available input data to study the C dynamics in French forests at the regional scale from 1850 to 2015. The model is composed of two interconnected modules which integrate biomass stocks and flows (Module 1) with litter and soil organic C (Module 2) and build upon previously established coupled climate‐vegetation models. Our model allows to develop a comprehensive understanding of forest C dynamics by systematically depicting the integrated impact of environmental changes and land use. Model outputs were compared to empirical data of C stocks in forest biomass and soils, available for recent decades from inventories, and to a long‐term simulation using a bookkeeping model. The CRAFT model reliably simulates the C dynamics during France's forest transition and reproduces C‐fluxes and stocks reported in the forest and soil inventories, in contrast to a widely used bookkeeping model which strictly only depicts C‐fluxes due to wood extraction. Model results show that like in several other industrialized countries, a sharp increase in forest biomass and SOC stocks resulted from forest area expansion and, especially after 1960, from tree growth resulting in vegetation thickening (on average 7.8 Mt C/year over the whole period). The difference between the bookkeeping model, 0.3 Mt C/year in 1850 and 21 Mt C/year in 2015, can be attributed to environmental and land management changes. The CRAFT model opens new grounds for better quantifying long‐term forest C dynamics and investigating the relative effects of land use, land management, and environmental change.     

GIS‐based Analysis of Vienna's Material Stock in Buildings

The building stock is not only a huge consumer of resources (for its construction and operation), but also represents a significant source for the future supply of metallic and mineral resources. This article describes how material stocks in buildings and their spatial distribution can be analyzed on a city level. In particular, the building structure (buildings differentiated by construction period and utilization) of Vienna is analyzed by joining available geographical information systems (GIS) data from various municipal authorities. Specific material intensities for different building categories (differentiated by construction period and utilization) are generated based on multiple data sources on the material composition of different building types and combined with the data on the building structure. Utilizing these methods, the overall material stock in buildings in Vienna was calculated to be 380 million metric tonnes (t), which equals 210 t per capita (t/cap). The bulk of the material (>96%) is mineral, whereas organic materials (wood, plastics, bitumen, and so on) and metals (iron/steel, copper, aluminum, and so on) constitute a very small share, of which wood (4.0 t/cap) and steel (3.2 t/cap) are the major contributors. Besides the overall material stock, the spatial distribution of materials within the municipal area can be assessed. This research forms the basis for a resource cadaster, which provides information about gross volume, construction period, utilization, and material composition for each building in Vienna.     

Consumption‐based Material Flow Accounting

In 2007, imports accounted for approximately 34% of the material input (domestic extraction and imports) into the Austrian economy and almost 60% of the GDP stemmed from exports. Upstream material inputs into the production of traded goods, however, are not yet included in the standard framework of material flow accounting (MFA). We have reviewed different approaches accounting for these upstream material inputs, or raw material equivalents (RME), positioning them in a wider debate about consumption‐based perspectives in environmental accounting. For the period 1995–2007, we calculated annual RME of Austria's trade and consumption applying a hybrid approach. For exports and competitive imports, we used an environmentally extended input‐output model of the Austrian economy, based on annual supply and use tables and MFA data. For noncompetitive imports, coefficients for upstream material inputs were extracted from life cycle inventories. The RME of Austria's imports and exports were approximately three times larger than the trade flows themselves. In 2007, Austria's raw material consumption was 30 million tonnes or 15% higher than its domestic material consumption. We discuss the material composition of these flows and their temporal dynamics. Our results demonstrate the need for a consumption‐based perspective in MFA to provide robust indicators for dematerialization and resource efficiency analysis of open economies.     

Geospatial Characterization of Material Stock in the Residential Sector of a Latin‐American City

Building stock constitutes a huge repository of construction materials in a city and a potential source for replacing primary resources in the future. This article describes the application of a methodological approach for analyzing the material stock (MS) in buildings and its spatial distribution at a city‐wide scale. A young Latin‐American city, the city of Chiclayo in Peru, was analyzed by combining geographical information systems (GIS) data, census information, and data collected from different sources. Application of the methodology yielded specific indicators for the physical size of buildings (i.e., gross floor area and number of stories) and their material composition. The overall MS in buildings, in 2007, was estimated at 24.4 million tonnes (Mt), or 47 tonnes per capita. This mass is primarily composed of mineral materials (97.7%), mainly concrete (14.1 Mt), while organic materials (e.g., 0.15 Mt of wood) and metals (e.g., 0.40 Mt of steel) constitute the remaining share (2.3%). Moreover, historical census data and projections were used to evaluate the changes in the MS from 1981 to 2017; showing a 360% increase of the MS in the last 36 years. This study provides essential supporting information for urban planners, helping to provide a better understanding of the availability of resources in the city and its future potential supply for recycling as well as to develop strategies for the management of construction and demolition waste.     

Estimating Materials Stocked by Land‐Use Type in Historic Urban Buildings Using Spatio‐Temporal Analytical Tools

The construction industry is an important contributor to urban economic development and consumes large volumes of building material that are stocked in cities over long periods. Those stocked spaces store valuable materials that may be available for recovery in the future. Thus quantifying the urban building stock is important for managing construction materials across the building life cycle. This article develops a new approach to urban building material stock analysis (MSA) using land‐use heuristics. Our objective is to characterize buildings to understand materials stocked in place by: (1) developing, validating, and testing a new method for characterizing building stock by land‐use type and (2) quantifying building stock and determining material fractions. We conduct a spatial MSA to quantify materials within a 2.6‐square‐kilometer section of Philadelphia from 2004 to 2012. Data were collected for buildings classified by land‐use type from many sources to create maps of material stock and spatial material intensity. In the spatial MSA, the land‐use type that returned the largest footprint (by percentage) and greatest (number) of buildings were civic/institutional (42%; 147) and residential (23%; 275), respectively. The model was validated for total floor space and the absolute overall error (n = 46; 20%) in 2004 and (n = 47; 24%) in 2012. Typically, commercial and residential land‐use types returned the lowest overall error and weighted error. We present a promising alternative method for characterizing buildings in urban MSA that leverages multiple tools (geographical information systems [GIS], design codes, and building models) and test the method in historic Philadelphia.     

Original Equipment Manufacturers’ Participation in Take‐Back Initiatives in Brazil

Lax legislation and increasing demand for electronics are driving relentless growth in electronic waste (e‐waste) in the developing world. To reduce the damage caused by e‐waste and recover value from end‐of‐life (EoL) electronics, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have created, over the past decades, programs to divert e‐waste from landfills to recycling and reuse. Although the subject of intense debate, little is known about such initiatives in terms of levels of participation by OEMs or the extent to which they have succeeded in reducing e‐waste in developing economies. To broaden our understanding of these issues, we investigate take‐back initiatives in the thriving market of personal computers (i.e., desktop and laptop computers) in Brazil. Using a multimethod approach (electronic archival data collection and semistructured interviews with manufacturers), we find evidence that large multinational manufacturers are at the forefront of take‐back programs. However, these initiatives in many ways lag behind those implemented in the United States, a more developed market as far as product take‐back is concerned. We find the main reasons for the low levels of participation by OEMs in take‐back programs to be high collection costs, low residual values, and lax, unclear, and conflicting legislation. Moreover, we propose new avenues of research, in light of our scant knowledge of country‐specific, company‐specific, and product‐specific determinants that moderate participation.     

Material Flows in a Social Context: A Vietnamese Case Study Combining the Materials Flow Analysis and Action‐in‐Context Frameworks

Materials flow analysis (MFA) is one of the central achievements of industrial ecology. One direction in which one can move MFA beyond mere accounting is by putting the material flows in their social context. This “socially extended MFA” may be carried out at various levels of aggregation. In this article, specific material flows will be linked to concrete actors and mechanisms that cause these flows—using the action‐in‐context (AiC) framework, which contains, inter alia, both proximate and indirect actors and factors. The case study site is of Tat hamlet in Vietnam, set in a landscape of paddy fields on valley floors surrounded by steep, previously forested slopes. Out of the aggregate MFA of Tat, the study focuses on material flows associated with basic needs and sustainability. The most important actors causing these material flows are farming households, politicians, traders, and agribusiness firms—of which local politicians turned out to be pivotal. The study shows the value of combining MFA with actor‐based social analysis. MFA achieves the balanced quantification of the physical system, thus helping to pinpoint key processes. Actor‐based analysis adds the causal understanding of what drives these key processes, leading to improved scenarios of the future and the effective identification of target groups and instruments for policy making.     

Dynamic Models of Fixed Capital Stocks and Their Application in Industrial Ecology

Industrial assets or fixed capital stocks are at the core of the transition to a low‐carbon economy. They represent substantial accumulations of capital, bulk materials, and critical metals. Their lifetime determines the potential for material recycling and how fast they can be replaced by new, more efficient facilities. Their efficiency determines the coupling between useful output and energy and material throughput. A sound understanding of the economic and physical properties of fixed capital stocks is essential to anticipating the long‐term environmental and economic consequences of the new energy future. We identify substantial overlap in the way stocks are modeled in national accounting, dynamic material flow analysis, dynamic input‐output (I/O) analysis, and life cycle assessment (LCA) and we merge these concepts into a common framework for modeling fixed capital stocks. We demonstrate the usefulness of the framework for simultaneous accounting of capital and material stocks and for consequential LCA. We apply the framework to design a demand‐driven dynamic I/O model with dynamic capital stocks, and we synthesize both the marginal and attributional matrix of technical coefficients (A‐matrix) from detailed process inventories of fixed assets of different age cohorts and technologies. The stock modeling framework allows researchers to identify and exploit synergies between different model families under the umbrella of socioeconomic metabolism.