Is the Scale Up of Malaria Intervention Coverage Also Achieving Equity?

Background and Methods

Malaria in Africa is most severe in young children and pregnant women, particularly in rural and poor households. In many countries, malaria intervention coverage rates have increased as a result of scale up; but this may mask limited coverage in these highest-risk populations. Reports were reviewed from nationally representative surveys in African malaria-endemic countries from 2006 through 2008 to understand how reported intervention coverage rates reflect access by the most at-risk populations.

Results

Reports were available from 27 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs), Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICSs), and Malaria Indicator Surveys (MISs) during this interval with data on household intervention coverage by urban or rural setting, wealth quintile, and sex. Household ownership of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) varied from 5% to greater than 60%, and was equitable by urban/rural and wealth quintile status among 13 (52%) of 25 countries. Malaria treatment rates for febrile children under five years of age varied from less than 10% to greater than 70%, and while equitable coverage was achieved in 8 (30%) of 27 countries, rates were generally higher in urban and richest quintile households. Use of intermittent preventive treatment in pregnant women varied from 2% to more than 60%, and again tended to be higher in urban and richest quintile households. Across all countries, there were no significant male/female inequalities seen for children sleeping under ITNs or receiving antimalarial treatment for febrile illness. Parasitemia and anemia rates from eight national surveys showed predominance in poor and rural populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Recent efforts to scale up malaria intervention coverage have achieved equity in some countries (especially with ITNs), but delivery methods in other countries are not addressing the most at-risk populations. As countries seek universal malaria intervention coverage, their delivery systems must reach the rural and poor populations; this is not a small task, but it has been achieved in some countries.     

The Effect of Rural-to-Urban Migration on Obesity and Diabetes in India: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Migration from rural areas of India contributes to urbanisation and may increase the risk of obesity and diabetes. We tested the hypotheses that rural-to-urban migrants have a higher prevalence of obesity and diabetes than rural nonmigrants, that migrants would have an intermediate prevalence of obesity and diabetes compared with life-long urban and rural dwellers, and that longer time since migration would be associated with a higher prevalence of obesity and of diabetes.

Methods and Findings

The place of origin of people working in factories in north, central, and south India was identified. Migrants of rural origin, their rural dwelling sibs, and those of urban origin together with their urban dwelling sibs were assessed by interview, examination, and fasting blood samples. Obesity, diabetes, and other cardiovascular risk factors were compared. A total of 6,510 participants (42% women) were recruited. Among urban, migrant, and rural men the age- and factory-adjusted percentages classified as obese (body mass index [BMI] >25 kg/m²) were 41.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 39.1–44.7), 37.8% (95% CI 35.0–40.6), and 19.0% (95% CI 17.0–21.0), respectively, and as diabetic were 13.5% (95% CI 11.6–15.4), 14.3% (95% CI 12.2–16.4), and 6.2% (95% CI 5.0–7.4), respectively. Findings for women showed similar patterns. Rural men had lower blood pressure, lipids, and fasting blood glucose than urban and migrant men, whereas no differences were seen in women. Among migrant men, but not women, there was weak evidence for a lower prevalence of both diabetes and obesity among more recent (≤10 y) migrants.

Conclusions

Migration into urban areas is associated with increases in obesity, which drive other risk factor changes. Migrants have adopted modes of life that put them at similar risk to the urban population. Gender differences in some risk factors by place of origin are unexpected and require further exploration. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Impact Monitoring of the National Scale Up of Zinc Treatment for Childhood Diarrhea in Bangladesh: Repeat Ecologic Surveys

Background

Zinc treatment of childhood diarrhea has the potential to save 400,000 under-five lives per year in lesser developed countries. In 2004 the World Health Organization (WHO)/UNICEF revised their clinical management of childhood diarrhea guidelines to include zinc. The aim of this study was to monitor the impact of the first national campaign to scale up zinc treatment of childhood diarrhea in Bangladesh.

Methods/Findings

Between September 2006 to October 2008 seven repeated ecologic surveys were carried out in four representative population strata: mega-city urban slum and urban nonslum, municipal, and rural. Households of approximately 3,200 children with an active or recent case of diarrhea were enrolled in each survey round. Caretaker awareness of zinc as a treatment for childhood diarrhea by 10 mo following the mass media launch was attained in 90%, 74%, 66%, and 50% of urban nonslum, municipal, urban slum, and rural populations, respectively. By 23 mo into the campaign, approximately 25% of urban nonslum, 20% of municipal and urban slum, and 10% of rural under-five children were receiving zinc for the treatment of diarrhea. The scale-up campaign had no adverse effect on the use of oral rehydration salt (ORS).

Conclusions

Long-term monitoring of scale-up programs identifies important gaps in coverage and provides the information necessary to document that intended outcomes are being attained and unintended consequences avoided. The scale-up of zinc treatment of childhood diarrhea rapidly attained widespread awareness, but actual use has lagged behind. Disparities in zinc coverage favoring higher income, urban households were identified, but these were gradually diminished over the two years of follow-up monitoring. The scale up campaign has not had any adverse effect on the use of ORS. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Reductions in the Prevalence and Incidence of Geohelminth Infections following a City-wide Sanitation Program in a Brazilian Urban Centre

Objective

In the city of Salvador, a large urban centre in Northeast Brazil, a city-wide sanitation intervention started in 1997, aimed at improving the sewerage coverage of households from 26% to 80%. Our aim was to study the impact of the intervention on the prevalence and incidence of geohelminths in the school-aged population.

Methods

The study comprised two comparable cohorts: the first assembled in 1997, before the intervention, and the second assembled in 2003, after the intervention. Both were sampled from 24 sentinel areas chosen to represent the different environmental conditions throughout the city. Copro-parasitological examinations were carried out on every individual from both cohorts, at baseline and nine months later. Demographic, socio-economic, and environmental data were collected using semi-structured questionnaires and environmental surveys. A hierarchical modelling approach fitting a sequence of Poisson multivariate linear models was undertaken to test the effect of the intervention variables on the prevalence and incidence rate ratios.

Findings

729 and 890 children aged 7–14 years (mean = 10.4 y, SD = 0.05 y) were analysed over the first and the second cohorts, respectively. The adjusted reductions of the prevalence and incidence rates at the second in relation to the first cohort were 27% and 34%, 25% and 32%, 33% and 26%, and 82% and 42% for geohelminths overall, Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and hookworm, respectively. Hierarchical modelling showed that a major part of each of these reductions was explained by the intervention.

Conclusion

Our results show that a city-wide sanitation program may reduce significantly the prevalence and incidence of geohelminths.     

Adjusting HIV Prevalence for Survey Non-Response Using Mortality Rates: An Application of the Method Using Surveillance Data from Rural South Africa

Background

The main source of HIV prevalence estimates are household and population-based surveys; however, high refusal rates may hinder the interpretation of such estimates. The study objective was to evaluate whether population HIV prevalence estimates can be adjusted for survey non-response using mortality rates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data come from the longitudinal Africa Centre Demographic Information System (ACDIS), in rural South Africa. Mortality rates for persons tested and not tested in the 2005 HIV surveillance were available from routine household surveillance. Assuming HIV status among individuals contacted but who refused to test (non-response) is missing at random and mortality among non-testers can be related to mortality of those tested a mathematical model was developed. Non-parametric bootstrapping was used to estimate the 95% confidence intervals around the estimates. Mortality rates were higher among untested (16.9 per thousand person-years) than tested population (11.6 per thousand person-years), suggesting higher HIV prevalence in the former. Adjusted HIV prevalence for females (15–49 years) was 31.6% (95% CI 26.1–37.1) compared to observed 25.2% (95% CI 24.0–26.4). For males (15–49 years) adjusted HIV prevalence was 19.8% (95% CI 14.8–24.8), compared to observed 13.2% (95% CI 12.1–14.3). For both sexes (15–49 years) combined, adjusted prevalence was 27.5% (95% CI 23.6–31.3), and observed prevalence was 19.7% (95% CI 19.6–21.3). Overall, observed prevalence underestimates the adjusted prevalence by around 7 percentage points (37% relative difference).

Conclusions/Significance

We developed a simple approach to adjust HIV prevalence estimates for survey non-response. The approach has three features that make it easy to implement and effective in adjusting for selection bias than other approaches. Further research is needed to assess this approach in populations with widely available HIV treatment (ART).     

HIV Prevalence and Associated Risk Factors among Individuals Aged 13-34 Years in Rural Western Kenya

Objectives

To estimate HIV prevalence and characterize risk factors among young adults in Asembo, rural western Kenya.

Design

Community-based cross-sectional survey.

Methods

From a demographic surveillance system, we selected a random sample of residents aged 13-34 years, who were contacted at home and invited to a nearby mobile study site. Consent procedures for non-emancipated minors required assent and parental consent. From October 2003 - April 2004, consenting participants were interviewed on risk behavior and tested for HIV and HSV-2. HIV voluntary counseling and testing was offered.

Results

Of 2606 eligible residents, 1822 (70%) enrolled. Primary reasons for refusal included not wanting blood taken, not wanting to learn HIV status, and partner/parental objection.Females comprised 53% of 1762 participants providing blood. Adjusted HIV prevalence was 15.4% overall: 20.5% among females and 10.2% among males. HIV prevalence was highest in women aged 25-29 years (36.5%) and men aged 30-34 years (41.1%). HSV-2 prevalence was 40.0% overall: 53% among females, 25.8% among males. In multivariate models stratified by gender and marital status, HIV infection was strongly associated with age, higher number of sex partners, widowhood, and HSV-2 seropositivity.

Conclusions

Asembo has extremely high HIV and HSV-2 prevalence, and probable high incidence, among young adults. Further research on circumstances around HIV acquisition in young women and novel prevention strategies (vaccines, microbicides, pre-exposure prophylaxis, HSV-2 prevention, etc.) are urgently needed.     

Epidemiology of HIV Infection in Large Urban Areas in the United States

Background

While the U.S. HIV epidemic continues to be primarily concentrated in urban area, local epidemiologic profiles may differ and require different approaches in prevention and treatment efforts. We describe the epidemiology of HIV in large urban areas with the highest HIV burden.

Methods/Principal Findings

We used data from national HIV surveillance for 12 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) to determine disparities in HIV diagnoses and prevalence and changes over time. Overall, 0.3% to 1% of the MSA populations were living with HIV at the end of 2007. In each MSA, prevalence was >1% among blacks; prevalence was >2% in Miami, New York, and Baltimore. Among Hispanics, prevalence was >1% in New York and Philadelphia. The relative percentage differences in 2007 HIV diagnosis rates, compared to whites, ranged from 239 (San Francisco) to 1239 (Baltimore) for blacks and from 15 (Miami) to 413 (Philadelphia) for Hispanics. The epidemic remains concentrated, with more than 50% of HIV diagnoses in 2007 attributed to male-to-male sexual contact in 7 of the 12 MSAs; heterosexual transmission surpassed or equaled male-to-male sexual transmission in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Yet in several MSAs, including Baltimore and Washington, DC, AIDS diagnoses increased among men-who-have sex with men in recent years.

Conclusions/Significance

These data are useful to identify local drivers of the epidemic and to tailor public health efforts for treatment and prevention services for people living with HIV.     

Reliability and validity of simplified Chinese version of Roland-Morris questionnaire in evaluating rural and urban patients with low back pain

Objective

The causes of low back pain in China and Western countries are extremely different. We attempted to analyze the risk factors of low back pain in urban and rural patients under the dual economy with the simplified Chinese version of Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (SC-RMDQ) to demonstrate that SC-RMDQ could evaluate patients with low back pain arising from different causes.

Methods

Roland-Morris disability questionnaire was translated into SCRMDQ according to international guidelines for questionnaire adaptation. In this study, causes of low back pain of 187 outpatients and inpatients (99 urban patients and 88 rural patients) were analyzed. All patients underwent simplified Chinese version of Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (SC-RMDQ), simplified Chinese Oswestry disability index (SCODI) and visual analogue scale (VAS). Reliability was tested using reproducibility (intraclass coefficient of correlation – ICC) and internal consistency (Cronbach''s alpha). Validity was tested using Pearson correlation analysis.

Results

The leading causes for low back pain were sedentariness (38.4%) and vibration (18.1%) in urban patients and waist bending (48.9%) and spraining (25%) in rural patients. Although causes of low back pain in the two groups of population were completely different, SCRMDQ had high internal consistency (Cronbach''s α value of 0.874 in urban patients and 0.883 in rural patients) and good reproducibility (ICC value of .952 in urban patients and 0.949 in rural patients, P<0.01). SCRMDQ also showed significant correlation with Simplified Chinese version of Oswestry disability index (SCODI) and visual analogue scale (VAS) in rural areas (SCRMDQ-SCODI r = 0.841; SCRMDQ -VAS: r = 0.685, P<0.01) and in urban areas (SCRMDQ-SCODI: r = 0.818, P<0.01; SCRMDQ –VAS: r = 0.666, P<0.01).

Conclusions

Although causes of low back pain are completely different in rural and urban patients, SCRMDQ has a good reliability and validity, which is a reliable clinical method to evaluate disability of rural and urban patients.     

Medicaid Coverage for Tobacco Dependence Treatments in Massachusetts and Associated Decreases in Smoking Prevalence

Background

Approximately 50% of smokers die prematurely from tobacco-related diseases. In July 2006, the Massachusetts health care reform law mandated tobacco cessation coverage for the Massachusetts Medicaid population. The new benefit included behavioral counseling and all medications approved for tobacco cessation treatment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2008, a total of 70,140 unique Massachusetts Medicaid subscribers used the newly available benefit, which is approximately 37% of all Massachusetts Medicaid smokers. Given the high utilization rate, the objective of this study is to determine if smoking prevalence decreased significantly after the initiation of tobacco cessation coverage.

Methods and Findings

Smoking prevalence was evaluated pre- to post-benefit using 1999 through 2008 data from the Massachusetts Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFSS). The crude smoking rate decreased from 38.3% (95% C.I. 33.6%–42.9%) in the pre-benefit period compared to 28.3% (95% C.I.: 24.0%–32.7%) in the post-benefit period, representing a decline of 26 percent. A demographically adjusted smoking rate showed a similar decrease in the post-benefit period. Trend analyses reflected prevalence decreases that accrued over time. Specifically, a joinpoint analysis of smoking prevalence among Massachusetts Medicaid benefit-eligible members (age 18–64) from 1999 through 2008 found a decreasing trend that was coincident with the implementation of the benefit. Finally, a logistic regression that controlled for demographic factors also showed that the trend in smoking decreased significantly from July 1, 2006 to December 31, 2008.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that a tobacco cessation benefit that includes coverage for medications and behavioral treatments, has few barriers to access, and involves broad promotion can significantly reduce smoking prevalence.     

Trend of Urban-Rural Disparities in Hospice Utilization in Taiwan

Aims

The palliative care has spread rapidly worldwide in the recent two decades. The development of hospice services in rural areas usually lags behind that in urban areas. The aim of our study was to investigate whether the urban-rural disparity widens in a country with a hospital-based hospice system.

Methods

From the nationwide claims database within the National Health Insurance in Taiwan, admissions to hospices from 2000 to 2006 were identified. Hospices and patients in each year were analyzed according to geographic location and residence.

Results

A total of 26,292 cancer patients had been admitted to hospices. The proportion of rural patients to all patients increased with time from 17.8% in 2000 to 25.7% in 2006. Although the numbers of beds and the utilizations in both urban and rural hospices expanded rapidly, the increasing trend in rural areas was more marked than that in urban areas. However, still two-thirds (898/1,357) of rural patients were admitted to urban hospices in 2006.

Conclusions

The gap of hospice utilizations between urban and rural areas in Taiwan did not widen with time. There was room for improvement in sufficient supply of rural hospices or efficient referral of rural patients.     

Indicators of Child Health,Service Utilization and Mortality in Zhejiang Province of China, 1998–2011

Objective

To investigate the levels of primary health care services for children and their changes in Zhejiang Province, China from 1998 to 2011.

Methods

The data were drawn from Zhejiang maternal and child health statistics collected under the supervision of the Health Bureau of Zhejiang Province. Primary health care coverage, hospital deliveries, low birth weight, postnatal visits, breastfeeding, underweight, early neonatal (<7 days) mortality, neonatal mortality, infant mortality and under-5 mortality were investigated.

Results

The coverage rates for children under 3 years old and children under 7 years old increased in the last 14 years. The hospital delivery rate was high during the study period, and the overall difference narrowed. There was a significant difference (P<0.001) between the prevalence of low birth weight in 1998 (2.03%) and the prevalence in 2011 (2.71%). The increase in low birth weight was more significant in urban areas than in rural areas. The postnatal visit rate increased from 95.00% to 98.45% with a significant difference (P<0.001). The breastfeeding rate was the highest in 2004 at 74.79% and lowest in 2008 at 53.86%. The prevalence of underweight in children under 5 years old decreased from 1.63% to 0.65%, and the prevalence was higher in rural areas. The early neonatal, neonatal, infant and under-5 mortality rates decreased from 6.66‰, 8.67‰, 11.99‰ and 15.28‰ to 1.69‰, 2.36‰, 3.89‰ and 5.42‰, respectively (P<0.001). The mortality rates in rural areas were slightly higher than those in urban areas each year, and the mortality rates were lower in Ningbo, Wenzhou, and Jiaxing regions and higher in Quzhou and Lishui regions.

Conclusion

Primary health care services for children in Zhejiang Province improved from 1998 to 2011. Continued high rates of low birth weight in urban areas and mortality in rural areas may be addressed with improvements in health awareness and medical technology.     

Risk Factors for Treatment Default among Re-Treatment Tuberculosis Patients in India, 2006

Setting

Under India''s Revised National Tuberculosis Control Programme (RNTCP), >15% of previously-treated patients in the reported 2006 patient cohort defaulted from anti-tuberculosis treatment.

Objective

To assess the timing, characteristics, and risk factors for default amongst re-treatment TB patients.

Methodology

For this case-control study, in 90 randomly-selected programme units treatment records were abstracted from all 2006 defaulters from the RNTCP re-treatment regimen (cases), with one consecutively-selected non-defaulter per case. Patients who interrupted anti-tuberculosis treatment for >2 months were classified as defaulters.

Results

1,141 defaulters and 1,189 non-defaulters were included. The median duration of treatment prior to default was 81 days (25%–75% interquartile range 44–117 days) and documented retrieval efforts after treatment interruption were inadequate. Defaulters were more likely to have been male (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2–1.7), have previously defaulted anti-tuberculosis treatment (aOR 1.3 95%CI 1.1–1.6], have previous treatment from non-RNTCP providers (AOR 1.3, 95%CI 1.0–1.6], or have public health facility-based treatment observation (aOR 1.3, 95%CI 1.1–1.6).

Conclusions

Amongst the large number of re-treatment patients in India, default occurs early and often. Improved pre-treatment counseling and community-based treatment provision may reduce default rates. Efforts to retrieve treatment interrupters prior to default require strengthening.     

Need for Timely Paediatric HIV Treatment within Primary Health Care in Rural South Africa

Background

In areas where adult HIV prevalence has reached hyperendemic levels, many infants remain at risk of acquiring HIV infection. Timely access to care and treatment for HIV-infected infants and young children remains an important challenge. We explore the extent to which public sector roll-out has met the estimated need for paediatric treatment in a rural South African setting.

Methods

Local facility and population-based data were used to compare the number of HIV infected children accessing HAART before 2008, with estimates of those in need of treatment from a deterministic modeling approach. The impact of programmatic improvements on estimated numbers of children in need of treatment was assessed in sensitivity analyses.

Findings

In the primary health care programme of HIV treatment 346 children <16 years of age initiated HAART by 2008; 245(70.8%) were aged 10 years or younger, and only 2(<1%) under one year of age. Deterministic modeling predicted 2,561 HIV infected children aged 10 or younger to be alive within the area, of whom at least 521(20.3%) would have required immediate treatment. Were extended PMTCT uptake to reach 100% coverage, the annual number of infected infants could be reduced by 49.2%.

Conclusion

Despite progress in delivering decentralized HIV services to a rural sub-district in South Africa, substantial unmet need for treatment remains. In a local setting, very few children were initiated on treatment under 1 year of age and steps have now been taken to successfully improve early diagnosis and referral of infected infants.     

Changing Epidemiology of Serious Bacterial Infections in Febrile Infants without Localizing Signs

Objective

Historically, management of infants with fever without localizing signs (FWLS) has generated much controversy, with attempts to risk stratify based on several criteria. Advances in medical practice may have altered the epidemiology of serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in this population. We conducted this study to test the hypothesis that the rate of SBIs in this patient population has changed over time.

Patients and Methods

We performed a retrospective review of all infants meeting FWLS criteria at our institution from 1997–2006. We examined all clinical and outcome data and performed statistical analysis of SBI rates and ampicillin resistance rates.

Results

668 infants met criteria for FWLS. The overall rate of SBIs was 10.8%, with a significant increase from 2002–2006 (52/361, 14.4%) compared to 1997–2001 (20/307, 6.5%) (p = 0.001). This increase was driven by an increase in E. coli urinary tract infections (UTI), particularly in older infants (31–90 days).

Conclusions

We observed a significant increase in E. coli UTI among FWLS infants with high rates of ampicillin resistance. The reasons are likely to be multifactorial, but the results themselves emphasize the need to examine urine in all febrile infants <90days and consider local resistance patterns when choosing empiric antibiotics.     

Where Do We Go from Here? Prevalence of Trachoma Three Years after Stopping Mass Distribution of Antibiotics in the Regions of Kayes and Koulikoro,Mali

Objectives

A national survey in 1997 demonstrated that trachoma was endemic in Mali. Interventions to control trachoma including mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin were launched in the regions of Kayes and Koulikoro in 2003. MDA was discontinued after three annual rounds in 2006, and an impact survey conducted. We resurveyed all districts in Kayes and Koulikoro in 2009 to reassess trachoma prevalence and determine intervention objectives for the future. In this paper we present findings from both the 2006 and 2009 surveys.

Methods

Population-based cluster surveys were conducted in each of the nine districts in Koulikoro in 2006 and 2009, whilst in Kayes, four of seven districts in 2006 and all seven districts in 2009 were surveyed. Household members present were examined for clinical signs of trachoma.

Results

Overall, 29,179 persons from 2,528 compounds, in 260 clusters were examined in 2006 and 32,918 from 7,533 households in 320 clusters in 2009. The prevalence of TF in children aged 1–9 years in Kayes and Koulikoro was 3.9% (95%CI 2.9–5.0%, range by district 1.2–5.4%) and 2.7% (95%CI 2.3–3.1%, range by district 0.1–5.0%) respectively in 2006. In 2009 TF prevalence was 7.26% (95%CI 6.2–8.2%, range by district 2.5–15.4%) in Kayes and 8.19% (95%CI 7.3–9.1%, range by district 1.7–17.2%) in Koulikoro among children of the same age group. TT in adults 15 years of age and older was 2.37% (95%CI 1.66–3.07%, range by district 0.30–3.54%) in 2006 and 1.37% (95%CI 1.02–1.72%, range by district 0.37–1.87%) in 2009 in Kayes and 1.75% (95%CI 1.31–2.23%, range by district 1.06–2.49%) in 2006 and 1.08% (95%CI 0.86–1.30%, range by district 0.34–1.78%) in 2009 in Koulikoro.

Conclusions

Using WHO guidelines for decision making, four districts, Bafoulabe in Kayes Region; and Banamba, Kolokani and Koulikoro in Koulikoro Region, still meet criteria for district-wide implementation of the full SAFE strategy as TF in children exceeds 10%. A community-by-community approach to trachoma control may now be required in the other twelve districts. Trichiasis surgery provision remains a need in all districts and should be enhanced in six districts in Kayes and five in Koulikoro where the prevalence exceeded 1.0% in adults. Since 1997 great progress has been observed in the fight against blinding trachoma; however, greater effort is required to meet the elimination target of 2015.     

A Comparative Study of the Spatial Distribution of Schistosomiasis in Mali in 1984–1989 and 2004–2006

Background

We investigated changes in the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Mali following a decade of donor-funded control and a further 12 years without control.

Methodology/Principal Findings

National pre-intervention cross-sectional schistosomiasis surveys were conducted in Mali in 1984–1989 (in communities) and again in 2004–2006 (in schools). Bayesian geostatistical models were built separately for each time period and on the datasets combined across time periods. In the former, data from one period were used to predict prevalence of schistosome infections for the other period, and in the latter, the models were used to determine whether spatial autocorrelation and covariate effects were consistent across periods. Schistosoma haematobium prevalence was 25.7% in 1984–1989 and 38.3% in 2004–2006; S. mansoni prevalence was 7.4% in 1984–1989 and 6.7% in 2004–2006 (note the models showed no significant difference in mean prevalence of either infection between time periods). Prevalence of both infections showed a focal spatial pattern and negative associations with distance from perennial waterbodies, which was consistent across time periods. Spatial models developed using 1984–1989 data were able to predict the distributions of both schistosome species in 2004–2006 (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was typically >0.7) and vice versa.

Conclusions/Significance

A decade after the apparently successful conclusion of a donor-funded schistosomiasis control programme from 1982–1992, national prevalence of schistosomiasis had rebounded to pre-intervention levels. Clusters of schistosome infections occurred in generally the same areas accross time periods, although the precise locations varied. To achieve long-term control, it is essential to plan for sustainability of ongoing interventions, including stengthening endemic country health systems.     

Epilepsy in Onchocerciasis Endemic Areas: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of Population-Based Surveys

Objective

We sought to evaluate the relationship between onchocerciasis prevalence and that of epilepsy using available data collected at community level.

Design

We conducted a systematic review and meta-regression of available data.

Data Sources

Electronic and paper records on subject area ever produced up to February 2008.

Review Methods

We searched for population-based studies reporting on the prevalence of epilepsy in communities for which onchocerciasis prevalence was available or could be estimated. Two authors independently assessed eligibility and study quality and extracted data. The estimation of point prevalence of onchocerciasis was standardized across studies using appropriate correction factors. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was then analyzed as a function of onchocerciasis endemicity using random-effect logistic models.

Results

Eight studies from west (Benin and Nigeria), central (Cameroon and Central African Republic) and east Africa (Uganda, Tanzania and Burundi) met the criteria for inclusion and analysis. Ninety-one communities with a total population of 79,270 individuals screened for epilepsy were included in the analysis. The prevalence of epilepsy ranged from 0 to 8.7% whereas that of onchocerciasis ranged from 5.2 to 100%. Variation in epilepsy prevalence was consistent with a logistic function of onchocerciasis prevalence, with epilepsy prevalence being increased, on average, by 0.4% for each 10% increase in onchocerciasis prevalence.

Conclusion

These results give further evidence that onchocerciasis is associated with epilepsy and that the disease burden of onchocerciasis might have to be re-estimated by taking into account this relationship.     

Decline in HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia: national-level estimates of trends mask geographical and socio-demographic differences

Background

A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15–24 years in Zambia.

Design and Methods

We analysed ANC data for women aged 15–24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994–2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15–24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people.

Findings

Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10% and 68% among urban women, and from stability to 86% among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002–2006), whereas population-based surveys in a selected urban community (1995–2003) suggested that the ANC-based data underestimated the prevalence declines in the general populations of both young both men and women.

Conclusion

The overall HIV prevalence declined substantially among young women in Zambia and this is interpreted as indicating a decline in HIV incidence. It is noteworthy that overall national trends masked substantial differences by place and by educational attainment, demonstrating critical limitations in the current focus on overall country-level trends in epidemiological reports.     

Estimated HIV Trends and Program Effects in Botswana

Background

This study uses surveillance, survey and program data to estimate past trends and current levels of HIV in Botswana and the effects of treatment and prevention programs.

Methods/Principal Findings

Data from sentinel surveillance at antenatal clinics and a national population survey were used to estimate the trend of adult HIV prevalence from 1980 to 2007. Using the prevalence trend we estimated the number of new adult infections, the transmission from mothers to children, the need for treatment and the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and adult and child deaths. Prevalence has declined slowly in urban areas since 2000 and has remained stable in rural areas. National prevalence is estimated at 26% (25–27%) in 2007. About 330,000 (318,000–335,000) people are infected with HIV including 20,000 children. The number of new adult infections has been stable for several years at about 20,000 annually (12,000–26,000). The number of new child infections has declined from 4600 in 1999 to about 890 (810–980) today due to nearly complete coverage of an effective program to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). The annual number of adult deaths has declined from a peak of over 15,500 in 2003 to under 7400 (5000–11,000) today due to coverage of ART that reaches over 80% in need. The need for ART will increase by 60% by 2016.

Conclusions

Botswana''s PMTCT and treatment programs have achieved significant results in preventing new child infections and deaths among adults and children. The number of new adult infections continues at a high level. More effective prevention efforts are urgently needed.     

Prevalence of Depression in a Large Urban South Indian Population — The Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (Cures – 70)

Background

In India there are very few population based data on prevalence of depression. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of depression in an urban south Indian population.

Methods and Findings

Subjects were recruited from the Chennai Urban Rural Epidemiology Study (CURES), involving 26,001 subjects randomly recruited from 46 of the 155 corporation wards of Chennai (formerly Madras) city in South India. 25,455 subjects participated in this study (response rate 97.9%). Depression was assessed using a self-reported and previously validated instrument, the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ) – 12. Age adjustment was made according to the 2001 census of India. The overall prevalence of depression was 15.1% (age-adjusted, 15.9%) and was higher in females (females 16.3% vs. males 13.9%, p<0.0001). The odds ratio (OR) for depression in female subjects was 1.20 [Confidence Intervals (CI): 1.12–1.28, p<0.001] compared to male subjects. Depressed mood was the most common symptom (30.8%), followed by tiredness (30.0%) while more severe symptoms such as suicidal thoughts (12.4%) and speech and motor retardation (12.4%) were less common. There was an increasing trend in the prevalence of depression with age among both female (p<0.001) and male subjects (p<0.001). The prevalence of depression was higher in the low income group (19.3%) compared to the higher income group (5.9%, p<0.001). Prevalence of depression was also higher among divorced (26.5%) and widowed (20%) compared to currently married subjects (15.4%, p<0.001).

Conclusions

This is the largest population-based study from India to report on prevalence of depression and shows that among urban south Indians, the prevalence of depression was 15.1%. Age, female gender and lower socio-economic status are some of the factors associated with depression in this population.