Study on Risk Factors for Severe Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Background

Epidemics of HFMD are elevated every year globally, especially in mainland China. The disease now presents as an increasing threat to public health worldwide.

Methods

Five hundred and seventy-one EV71-infected HFMD patients in Beijing You''an Hospital were grouped by disease severity: Mild (no severe complication) (n = 221), and Severe group (complicated with brainstem encephalitis (BE), and/or pulmonary edema (PE) (n = 350)). Clinical and laboratory findings and levels of 7 serum cytokines were analyzed.

Results

Univariate analysis showed that (RR)>26/min (p<0.001), age<4 yo (p = 0.001), GLU>8.3 mmol/L (p = 0.008), CL<98 mmol/L (p = 0.026), and WBC>1.2×10⁹/L (p = 0.040) were associated with severe cases. Results of multivariate analysis indicated five independent risk factors (RR>26/min (p<0.001), Age<4 yo (p<0.001), GLU>8.3 mmol/L (p = 0.011), LYM>40% (p = 0.010), and ALT>40 U/L (p = 0.045)). In addition to single-factor analysis, we further analyzed the use of different combinations of risk factors. “GLU>8.3 and CL<98 and RR>26” (confidence ration (CR) = 100%) is the top indicator, followed by “ALT>40 and LYM>40% and RR>26 and Age<4 yo” (CR = 92.9%).Serum levels of IL-2, IL-4, IL-10, IFNγ, GM-CSF, and TNFα were higher in severe cases than in mild cases. A new evaluation scoring system by scoring each risk factor 1 and independent risk factor 2 was developed for early identification of severe HFMD cases.

Conclusions

Five independent risk factors, along with indicative combinations of risk factors, for severe cases were identified, and a scoring system was created to facilitate the use of indicators for early medical intervention.     

Clinical Features for Mild Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in China

Background

Mild hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is at a critical stage owing to its ease of communicability and a higher risk of developing severe complications and death. Clinical diagnosis of mild HFMD was made by the presenting symptoms and signs (symptoms in brief) alone. We aim to evaluate the frequencies of symptoms in a retrospective case series study.

Methods

We collected epidemiological, demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from outpatient and inpatient settings on the clinical data warehouse system. We principally described the frequencies of symptoms of mild HFMD. Correlations between symptoms with laboratory-confirmed cases were then analyzed.

Results

The clinical data warehouse system included 3649 probable cases, between 2010 and 2012, of which 956 (26.20%) were laboratory confirmed. The peak incidence was identified in children 2 years of age. A total of 370 of the 956 laboratory confirmed cases (38.70%) were associated with enterovirus 71 (EV71). Logistic regression analysis adjusted for geographical variables, age, sex, month of onset, and time from onset to diagnosis showed that the clinical features constipation (P<0.0001; adjusted OR, 95%CI (2.99, 2.28–3.91)), and blisters (P<0.0001; adjusted OR, 95%CI (2.16, 1.82–2.56)) were positively correlated with the confirmed cases.

Conclusions

This is the largest case series study, including all the guideline-mentioned symptoms of mild HFMD. Our findings suggest that blisters and constipation should be considered as potential warning signs while front-line clinicians manage surges of children diagnosed with mild HFMD during a pandemic.     

Spatiotemporal Cluster Patterns of Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China, 2008-2012

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is known to be a highly contagious childhood illness. In recent years, the number of reported cases of HFMD has significantly increased in mainland China. This study aims at the epidemiological features, spatiotemporal patterns of HMFD at the county/district level in mainland China.

Methods

Data on reported HFMD cases for each county from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cluster analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and retrospective scan methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of the disease.

Results

The annual incidences varied greatly among the counties, ranging from 0 to 74.31‰ with the median of 5.42‰ (interquartile range: 1.54‰–13.55‰) during 2008–2012 in mainland China. Counties close to provincial capital cities generally had higher incidences than rural counties. A seasonal distribution was observed between the northern and southern China, of which dual epidemic were shown in southern China and usually only one in northern China. Based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, we found that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern for each year (P<0.001), and hotspots of the disease were mostly distributed in coastal provinces of China. The retrospective scan statistic further identified the dynamics of spatiotemporal clustering areas of the disease, which were mainly distributed in the counties of eastern and southern China, as well as provincial capitals and their surrounding counties.

Conclusions

The spatiotemporal clustering areas of the disease identified in this way were relatively stable, and imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas.     

Time Series Analyses of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease Integrating Weather Variables

Background

The past decade witnessed an increment in the incidence of hand foot mouth disease (HFMD) in the Pacific Asian region; specifically, in Guangzhou China. This emphasized the requirement of an early warning system designed to allow the medical community to better prepare for outbreaks and thus minimize the number of fatalities.

Methods

Samples from 1,556 inpatients (hospitalized) and 11,004 outpatients (non-admitted) diagnosed with HFMD were collected in this study from January 2009 to October 2013. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was applied to establish high predictive model for inpatients and outpatient as well as three viral serotypes (EV71, Pan-EV and CA16). To integrate climate variables in the data analyses, data from eight climate variables were simultaneously obtained during this period. Significant climate variable identified by correlation analyses was executed to improve time series modeling as external repressors.

Results

Among inpatients with HFMD, 248 (15.9%) were affected by EV71, 137 (8.8%) were affected by Pan-EV+, and 436 (28.0%) were affected by CA16. Optimal Univariate SARIMA model was identified: (2,0,3)(1,0,0)₅₂ for inpatients, (0,1,0)(0,0,2)₅₂ for outpatients as well as three serotypes (EV71, (1,0,1)(0,0,1)₅₂; CA16, (1,0,1)(0,0,0)₅₂; Pan-EV, (1,0,1)(0,0,0)₅₂). Using climate as our independent variable, precipitation (PP) was first identified to be associated with inpatients (r = 0.211, P = 0.001), CA16-serotype (r = 0.171, P = 0.007) and outpatients (r = 0.214, P = 0.01) in partial correlation analyses, and was then shown a significant lag in cross-autocorrelation analyses. However, inclusion of PP [lag -3 week] as external repressor showed a moderate impact on the predictive performance of the SARIMA model described here-in.

Conclusion

Climate patterns and HFMD incidences have been shown to be strongly correlated. The SARIMA model developed here can be a helpful tool in developing an early warning system for HFMD.     

手足口病的流行病学特征及防治对策

手足口病是由多种肠道病毒引起的常见传染病,多发生于学龄前儿童。近年来我国许多地方不断报道有手足口病的暴发流行,且并发症发生率和病死率也有增高的趋势。2008年,我国将手足口病纳入《传染病防治法》丙类传染病管理。本文对手足口病的病原学及流行病学特征、临床症状及诊断、预防、治疗措施等进行了综述。     

致手足口病肠道病毒的病原学研究进展

手足口病是一种多病原体引起的儿童常见传染病,少数患者会进展为重症甚至死亡,对公共卫生造成巨大影响.目前国内虽已研制出EV71灭活疫苗并上市使用,对其它病毒所致手足口病并无交叉保护作用,并不能从总体上降低手足口病的发病率,在应对多种病原体的疫苗问世前,对手足口病病原体的基因进化监测、流行特征和病原学研究仍然是防控手足口病的重要措施.本文就手足口病在病原学方面的研究进展进行综述,为该病的科学防控提供有价值的信息.     

2007年北京地区儿童手足口病病原的初步筛查

2007年4～6月儿童手足口病流行期间,对北京地区51例皮损症状典型、伴/不伴发热、无重症合并症的手足口病患儿采样,建立RT-PCR方法,以5'非编码区(5'UTR)肠道病毒通用引物、CA16和EV71 VP1区特异性引物直接对82份临床标本进行了初步筛查,肠道病毒阳性率达70.6%。检测病例中CA16阳性25例(25/51)、EV71阳性4例(4/51)、非CA16和EV71的肠道病毒阳性病例7例(7/51),三者比例约为6:1:2。2007年北京地区儿童轻症手足口病主要病原包括CA16和EV71,同时还存在一定比例其它肠道病毒。部分EV71毒株经测序验证及系统进化分析显示为C4基因亚型。     

Cyclical Patterns of Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease Caused by Enterovirus A71 in Malaysia

Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) is an important emerging pathogen causing large epidemics of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children. In Malaysia, since the first EV-A71 epidemic in 1997, recurrent cyclical epidemics have occurred every 2–3 years for reasons that remain unclear. We hypothesize that this cyclical pattern is due to changes in population immunity in children (measured as seroprevalence). Neutralizing antibody titers against EV-A71 were measured in 2,141 residual serum samples collected from children ≤12 years old between 1995 and 2012 to determine the seroprevalence of EV-A71. Reported national HFMD incidence was highest in children <2 years, and decreased with age; in support of this, EV-A71 seroprevalence was significantly associated with age, indicating greater susceptibility in younger children. EV-A71 epidemics are also characterized by peaks of increased genetic diversity, often with genotype changes. Cross-sectional time series analysis was used to model the association between EV-A71 epidemic periods and EV-A71 seroprevalence adjusting for age and climatic variables (temperature, rainfall, rain days and ultraviolet radiance). A 10% increase in absolute monthly EV-A71 seroprevalence was associated with a 45% higher odds of an epidemic (adjusted odds ratio, aOR1.45; 95% CI 1.24–1.69; P<0.001). Every 10% decrease in seroprevalence between preceding and current months was associated with a 16% higher odds of an epidemic (aOR = 1.16; CI 1.01–1.34 P<0.034). In summary, the 2–3 year cyclical pattern of EV-A71 epidemics in Malaysia is mainly due to the fall of population immunity accompanying the accumulation of susceptible children between epidemics. This study will impact the future planning, timing and target populations for vaccine programs.     

咸阳市2016-2019年手足口病病原学检测分析

本文通过对咸阳市2016-2019年手足口病(Hand,foot and mouth disease,HFMD)病原检测结果进行分析,阐明了咸阳市近四年HFMD病原谱的构成和流行特征,为HFMD防控工作提供依据.对2016-2019年收集的2711例HFMD病例标本进行荧光定量PCR检测确定肠道病毒型别,构建咸阳市HFMD病原谱并对阳性病例的流行特征进行描述性分析.2711例HFMD病例实验室确诊1444例(阳性率为53.26％),其中肠道病毒A组71型(Enterovirus 71,EV71)占病原谱构成的 12.74％、柯萨奇病毒 A组 16型(Coxsackievirus A16,CoxA16)占27.49％、柯萨奇病毒 A组 10型(Coxsackievirus A10,CoxA10)占5.19％、柯萨奇病毒 A 组6型(Coxsackievirus A6,CoxA6)占43.21％、其他肠道病毒(Enterovirus,EV)占11.36％.CoxA6和CoxA16交替居于咸阳市HFMD病原谱首位.咸阳市HFMD流行具有明显季节性和地区差异以及特定人群高发,夏季(5～7月)为发病主高峰,秋冬季(10～11月)为次高峰,主要集中在人口较多的市区,4岁以下散居儿童为易感人群,且男性发病率高于女性.今后的防控工作中应继续加强咸阳市HFMD监测,重视其他EV的监测工作,实时监测HFMD病原谱的变化.在高发季节,针对高发人群,采取积极有效干预措施,加强防控工作.     

Genotypes of the Enterovirus Causing Hand Foot and Mouth Disease in Shanghai,China, 2012-2013

Sporadic HFMD (hand foot and mouth disease, HFMD) cases and outbreaks caused by etiologic agents other than EV71 and CA16 have increased globally. We conducted this study to investigate the prevalence and genetic characteristics of enteroviruses, especially the non-EV71 and non-CA16 enteroviruses, causing HFMD in Shanghai. Clinical specimens were collected from patients with a diagnosis of HFMD. A partial length of VP1 was amplified with RT-PCR and subjected to direct sequencing. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using MEGA 5.0. The ages of the HFMD cases ranged from 3 to 96 months, and the male/female ratio was 1.41. The median hospital stay was 2.96 days. Up to 18.0% of patients had neurologic system complications such as encephalitis, meningoencephalitis or meningitis. Of the 480 samples, 417 were positive for enterovirus (86.9%) with RT-PCR. A total of 13 enterovirus genotypes were identified. The most frequent genotypes were CA6 (31.9%), EV71 (30.6%), CA16 (8.8%) and CA10 (7.5%). Infections with CA6, EV71, CA16 and CA10 were prevalent throughout the years of study, while the proportion of CA6 notably increased from Sep. 2012 to Dec. 2013. Phylogenetic analyses showed that EV71 strains belonged to the C4a subgenogroup and CA16 was identified as B1b subgenogroup. The CA6 strains were assigned to genogroup F, whereas the CA10 strains were assigned to genogroup D. Patients infected with CA6 were typically younger, had a shorter hospital stay and had a lower incidence of neurologic system complications when compared to patients infected with EV71. Our study demonstrates that the enterovirus genotypes causing HFMD were diversified, and there was an increasing prevalence of the non-EV71 and non-CA16 enteroviruses from 2012 to 2013. CA6 was the most predominant pathogen causing HFMD from Sep. 2012 to Dec. 2013, and it often caused relatively mild HFMD symptoms. Most severe HFMD cases were associated with EV71 infection.     

82 例成人手足口病的临床特点分析

目的:总结82例成人手足口病的临床表现,实验室检查和流行病学特点,有利于做好手足口病的预防治疗.方法:对82例成人手足口病的临床表现和流行病学特点进行回顾性分析.结果:成人手足口病临床症状轻,预后好,但成人手足口病患者作为传染源,在临床中对手足口病的传播很有意义.结论:做好成人手足口病的诊断治疗和隔离,对预防控制手足口病有重要意义.     

Bioinformatics Analysis of Key micro-RNAs and mRNAs under the Hand,Foot, and Mouth Disease Virus Infection

To clarify crucial key micro-RNAs and mRNAs associated with hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) virus infection, we conducted this bioinformatics analysis from four GEO datasets. The following datasets were used for the analysis: {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE85829","term_id":"85829"}}GSE85829, {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE94551","term_id":"94551"}}GSE94551, {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE52780","term_id":"52780"}}GSE52780, and {"type":"entrez-geo","attrs":{"text":"GSE45589","term_id":"45589"}}GSE45589. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were acquired, and the analysis of functional and pathway enrichment and the relative regulatory network were conducted. After screening common differentially expressed miRNAs (DE-miRNAs), five key miRNAs were acquired: miR-100-3p, miR-125a-3p, miR-1273g-3p, miR-5585-3p, and miR-671-5p. There were three common enriched GO terms between miRNA-derived prediction and mRNA-derived analysis: biosynthetic process, cytosol, and nucleoplasm. There was one common KEGG pathway, i.e., cell cycle shared between miRNA-based and mRNA-based enrichment. Using TarBase V8 in DIANA tools, we acquired 1,520 potential targets (mRNA) from the five key DE-miRNAs, among which the159 DE-mRNAs also included 11 DEGs. These common DEGs showed a PPI network mainly connected by SMC1A, SMARCC1, SF3B3, LIG1, and BRMS1L. Together, changes in five key miRNAs and 11 key mRNAs may play crucial roles in HFMD progression. A combination of these roles may benefit the early diagnosis and treatment of HFMD.Key words: HFMD, micro-RNA, protein-protein interaction, microarray, regulatory network     

Spatial trend of Foot and Mouth Disease virus (FMDV) serotypes in cattle and buffaloes, Pakistan

The present study describes the frequency of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) virus serotypes (O, A and Asia-1) in major regions (all provinces) of Pakistan using Indirect Sandwich ELISA. Also, spatial distribution of various FMD serotypes and their comparison is discussed. A total of 590 samples (Epithelial tissue) have been analyzed during a period of five years (2005–2009). Out of 590 samples, 180 were found positive, giving an overall confirmation of FMDV about 33.2 %. Of the prevalent serotypes, FMDV ‘O’ serotype caused most outbreaks (20.7 %), followed by serotype A (6.6 %) and serotype Asia-1 (4.6 %) while there was no positive case of type ‘C’. The study clearly showed that the disease was more frequent in the agro-climatic zones than in hilly areas. Based on the data of 590 samples (>50 outbreaks), the overall prevalence of FMDV in cattle and buffaloes in Pakistan was 33.2 %, while in cattle alone, it was 37.1 %, higher than in buffalo (28.7 %). There were eight cases of mixed serotypes infection, indicating the presence of endemic state of disease. Another significant feature was the change over time. In phase-I (2005–2007), there was an overall prevalence of 29.4 %, while the occurrence of the serotype O, A and Asia-1 was 20.4 %, 2.9 % and 4.7 %, respectively. During phase-II (2008-2009), the overall prevalence was 59.21 %, while those of serotype O, A and Asia-1 were 22.4 %, 31.6 % and 4.0 %, respectively. This clearly indicated a shift from serotype O to A, which may help to explain the occurrence of more severe outbreaks, despite vaccination.     

Predation Risk Perception,Food Density and Conspecific Cues Shape Foraging Decisions in a Tropical Lizard

When foraging, animals can maximize their fitness if they are able to tailor their foraging decisions to current environmental conditions. When making foraging decisions, individuals need to assess the benefits of foraging while accounting for the potential risks of being captured by a predator. However, whether and how different factors interact to shape these decisions is not yet well understood, especially in individual foragers. Here we present a standardized set of manipulative field experiments in the form of foraging assays in the tropical lizard Anolis cristatellus in Puerto Rico. We presented male lizards with foraging opportunities to test how the presence of conspecifics, predation-risk perception, the abundance of food, and interactions among these factors determines the outcome of foraging decisions. In Experiment 1, anoles foraged faster when food was scarce and other conspecifics were present near the feeding tray, while they took longer to feed when food was abundant and when no conspecifics were present. These results suggest that foraging decisions in anoles are the result of a complex process in which individuals assess predation risk by using information from conspecific individuals while taking into account food abundance. In Experiment 2, a simulated increase in predation risk (i.e., distance to the feeding tray) confirmed the relevance of risk perception by showing that the use of available perches is strongly correlated with the latency to feed. We found Puerto Rican crested anoles integrate instantaneous ecological information about food abundance, conspecific activity and predation risk, and adjust their foraging behavior accordingly.