Monitoring Progress towards Universal Health Coverage at Country and Global Levels

Universal health coverage (UHC) has been defined as the desired outcome of health system performance whereby all people who need health services (promotion, prevention, treatment, rehabilitation, and palliation) receive them, without undue financial hardship. UHC has two interrelated components: the full spectrum of good-quality, essential health services according to need, and protection from financial hardship, including possible impoverishment, due to out-of-pocket payments for health services. Both components should benefit the entire population.This paper summarizes the findings from 13 country case studies and five technical reviews, which were conducted as part of the development of a global framework for monitoring progress towards UHC.The case studies show the relevance and feasibility of focusing UHC monitoring on two discrete components of health system performance: levels of coverage with health services and financial protection, with a focus on equity. These components link directly to the definition of UHC and measure the direct results of strategies and policies for UHC. The studies also show how UHC monitoring can be fully embedded in often existing, regular overall monitoring of health sector progress and performance. Several methodological and practical issues related to the monitoring of coverage of essential health services, financial protection, and equity, are highlighted. Addressing the gaps in the availability and quality of data required for monitoring progress towards UHC is critical in most countries.

Summary Points

• The overall goal of universal health coverage (UHC) is that all people obtain the good-quality essential health services, including promotion, prevention, treatment, rehabilitation, and palliation, that they need without enduring financial hardship.
• A global UHC monitoring framework, developed by WHO and the World Bank Group in interaction with the process that led to this PLOS Collection, was used in 13 country case studies, underpinned by five technical reviews.
• The UHC monitoring framework focuses on the simultaneous monitoring of coverage of the population with essential health services and with financial protection against catastrophic out-of-pocket health payments, stratified by wealth quintile, place of residence, and sex.
• Most countries focus on regular monitoring of a set of tracer indicators for priority health services, as well as the occurrence of financial hardship and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket health expenses. The indicators generally follow international standards of measurement and can be used for global comparisons.
• Most countries do not have an explicit framework for UHC monitoring. The monitoring of UHC is, however, partially embedded in regular overall health sector progress and performance reviews which include health system inputs, service delivery, and health status indicators.
• There are major gaps in the availability and quality of data required for monitoring progress towards UHC. Countries mostly rely on international survey programs or national surveys to obtain disaggregated data on coverage and financial protection indicators, complemented by health facility data, but often the frequency and contents of these surveys are not sufficient to meet the country''s information needs.
• Monitoring progress towards the two components of UHC will be complementary and critical to achieving desirable health outcome goals, such as ending preventable deaths and promoting healthy life expectancy, and also reducing poverty and protecting household incomes.

     

Effective Coverage: A Metric for Monitoring Universal Health Coverage

A major challenge in monitoring universal health coverage (UHC) is identifying an indicator that can adequately capture the multiple components underlying the UHC initiative. Effective coverage, which unites individual and intervention characteristics into a single metric, offers a direct and flexible means to measure health system performance at different levels. We view effective coverage as a relevant and actionable metric for tracking progress towards achieving UHC. In this paper, we review the concept of effective coverage and delineate the three components of the metric — need, use, and quality — using several examples. Further, we explain how the metric can be used for monitoring interventions at both local and global levels. We also discuss the ways that current health information systems can support generating estimates of effective coverage. We conclude by recognizing some of the challenges associated with producing estimates of effective coverage. Despite these challenges, effective coverage is a powerful metric that can provide a more nuanced understanding of whether, and how well, a health system is delivering services to its populations.

This paper is part of the PLOS Universal Health Coverage Collection.

Summary Points

• Effective coverage unites intervention need, use, and quality into a simple but data-rich metric, reflecting the core components of UHC.
• Effective coverage can be applied to understand the health gains delivered by interventions at a range of levels, from individual benefits to national impact.
• Effective coverage can be measured and used across resource settings. Lower-income countries can harness data from existing survey data to feed into effective coverage estimations.
• The broader use of effective coverage remains hindered by the availability and quality of health data, especially at subnational levels.

     

Beyond UHC: Monitoring Health and Social Protection Coverage in the Context of Tuberculosis Care and Prevention

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global public health problem. In all societies, the disease affects the poorest individuals the worst. A new post-2015 global TB strategy has been developed by WHO, which explicitly highlights the key role of universal health coverage (UHC) and social protection. One of the proposed targets is that “No TB affected families experience catastrophic costs due to TB.” High direct and indirect costs of care hamper access, increase the risk of poor TB treatment outcomes, exacerbate poverty, and contribute to sustaining TB transmission. UHC, conventionally defined as access to health care without risk of financial hardship due to out-of-pocket health care expenditures, is essential but not sufficient for effective and equitable TB care and prevention. Social protection interventions that prevent or mitigate other financial risks associated with TB, including income losses and non-medical expenditures such as on transport and food, are also important. We propose a framework for monitoring both health and social protection coverage, and their impact on TB epidemiology. We describe key indicators and review methodological considerations. We show that while monitoring of general health care access will be important to track the health system environment within which TB services are delivered, specific indicators on TB access, quality, and financial risk protection can also serve as equity-sensitive tracers for progress towards and achievement of overall access and social protection.

This paper is part of the PLOS Universal Health Coverage Collection.

Summary Points

1. The WHO has developed a post-2015 Global TB Strategy emphasizing that significant improvement to TB care and prevention will be impossible without the progressive realization of both universal health coverage and social protection. This paper discusses indicators and measurement approaches for both.
2. While access to high-quality TB diagnosis and treatment has improved dramatically in recent decades, there is still insufficient coverage, especially for correct diagnosis and treatment of multi-drug resistant TB.
3. Continued and expanded monitoring of effective coverage of TB diagnosis and treatment is needed, for which further improvements to existing surveillance systems are required.
4. Many households face severe financial hardship due to TB. Out-of-pocket costs for medical care, transport, and food are often high. However, income loss is the largest financial threat for TB-affected households.
5. Consequently, the financial risk protection target in the post-2015 Global TB Strategy—“No TB affected families experience catastrophic costs due to TB”—concerns all direct costs as well as income loss. This definition is more inclusive than the one conventionally used for “catastrophic health expenditure,” which concerns only direct medical costs.

     

Equity-Oriented Monitoring in the Context of Universal Health Coverage

Monitoring inequalities in health is fundamental to the equitable and progressive realization of universal health coverage (UHC). A successful approach to global inequality monitoring must be intuitive enough for widespread adoption, yet maintain technical credibility. This article discusses methodological considerations for equity-oriented monitoring of UHC, and proposes recommendations for monitoring and target setting. Inequality is multidimensional, such that the extent of inequality may vary considerably across different dimensions such as economic status, education, sex, and urban/rural residence. Hence, global monitoring should include complementary dimensions of inequality (such as economic status and urban/rural residence) as well as sex. For a given dimension of inequality, subgroups for monitoring must be formulated taking into consideration applicability of the criteria across countries and subgroup heterogeneity. For economic-related inequality, we recommend forming subgroups as quintiles, and for urban/rural inequality we recommend a binary categorization. Inequality spans populations, thus appropriate approaches to monitoring should be based on comparisons between two subgroups (gap approach) or across multiple subgroups (whole spectrum approach). When measuring inequality absolute and relative measures should be reported together, along with disaggregated data; inequality should be reported alongside the national average. We recommend targets based on proportional reductions in absolute inequality across populations. Building capacity for health inequality monitoring is timely, relevant, and important. The development of high-quality health information systems, including data collection, analysis, interpretation, and reporting practices that are linked to review and evaluation cycles across health systems, will enable effective global and national health inequality monitoring. These actions will support equity-oriented progressive realization of UHC.

This paper is part of the PLOS Universal Health Coverage Collection.

Summary Points

• The equitable realization of universal health coverage requires an equity-oriented approach to monitoring; equity advocates should be unified in proposing a technically sound platform for monitoring that is easy to understand and communicate.
• Global monitoring should include complementary dimensions of inequality (such as economic status and urban/rural residence, in addition to sex), adopt a gap or whole spectrum approach, and conceptualize economic-related measures using quintiles.
• Both absolute and relative measures of inequality as well as disaggregated data should be reported, and national averages should be presented alongside inequality monitoring.
• Targets for global monitoring of health inequalities should be based on proportional reduction of absolute inequality.
• Countries can develop capacity for health inequality monitoring by strengthening health information systems for data collection, analysis, reporting, and dissemination.

     

Financial Risk Protection and Universal Health Coverage: Evidence and Measurement Challenges

Financial risk protection is a key component of universal health coverage (UHC), which is defined as access to all needed quality health services without financial hardship. As part of the PLOS Medicine Collection on measurement of UHC, the aim of this paper is to examine and to compare and contrast existing measures of financial risk protection. The paper presents the rationale behind the methodologies for measuring financial risk protection and how this relates to UHC as well as some empirical examples of the types of measures. Additionally, the specific challenges related to monitoring inequalities in financial risk protection are discussed. The paper then goes on to examine and document the practical challenges associated with measurement of financial risk protection. This paper summarizes current thinking on the area of financial risk protection, provides novel insights, and suggests future developments that could be valuable in the context of monitoring progress towards UHC.

This paper is part of the PLOS Universal Health Coverage Collection.

Key Summary Points

• Health payments are a heavy financial burden for millions around the world. Financial risk protection is concerned with safeguarding people against the financial hardship associated with paying for health services.
• Two commonly applied concepts capture the lack of financial risk protection. The first, catastrophic health expenditure, occurs when a household''s out-of-pocket (OOP) payments are so high relative to its available resources that the household foregoes the consumption of other necessary goods and services. The second concept, impoverishment, occurs when OOP payments push households below or further below the poverty line, a threshold under which even the most basic standard of living is not ensured.
• Headcount indicators, which measure the number of people affected, alone do not give the full picture of the problem. Additional measures of the intensity of financial hardship provide useful insights into the nature of OOP payments in different settings.
• Robust monitoring of financial risk protection requires reliable household expenditure surveys ideally conducted every 2 to 5 years.

     

Regional Differences in Intervention Coverage and Health System Strength in Tanzania

Background

Assessments of subnational progress and performance coverage within countries should be an integral part of health sector reviews, using recent data from multiple sources on health system strength and coverage.

Method

As part of the midterm review of the national health sector strategic plan of Tanzania mainland, summary measures of health system strength and coverage of interventions were developed for all 21 regions, focusing on the priority indicators of the national plan. Household surveys, health facility data and administrative databases were used to compute the regional scores.

Findings

Regional Millennium Development Goal (MDG) intervention coverage, based on 19 indicators, ranged from 47% in Shinyanga in the northwest to 71% in Dar es Salaam region. Regions in the eastern half of the country have higher coverage than in the western half of mainland. The MDG coverage score is strongly positively correlated with health systems strength (r = 0.84). Controlling for socioeconomic status in a multivariate analysis has no impact on the association between the MDG coverage score and health system strength. During 1991–2010 intervention coverage improved considerably in all regions, but the absolute gap between the regions did not change during the past two decades, with a gap of 22% between the top and bottom three regions.

Interpretation

The assessment of regional progress and performance in 21 regions of mainland Tanzania showed considerable inequalities in coverage and health system strength and allowed the identification of high and low-performing regions. Using summary measures derived from administrative, health facility and survey data, a subnational picture of progress and performance can be obtained for use in regular health sector reviews.     

Achieving global mortality reduction targets and universal health coverage: The impact of COVID-19

Wenhui Mao and coauthors discuss possible implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for health aspirations in low- and middle-income countries.

Summary points

• The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic threatens progress toward a “grand convergence” in global health—universal reduction in deaths from infections and maternal and child health conditions to low levels—and toward achieving universal health coverage (UHC).
• Our analysis suggests that COVID-19 will exacerbate the difficulty of achieving grand convergence targets for tuberculosis (TB), maternal mortality, and, probably, for under-5 mortality. HIV targets are likely to be met.
• By 2035, our analysis suggests that the public sectors of low-income countries (LICs) would only be able to finance about a third of the costs of a package of 120 essential non-COVID-19 health interventions through domestic sources, unless the country increases significantly the priority assigned to the health sector; lower middle-income countries (LMICs) would likewise only be able to finance a little less than half.
• The likelihood of getting back on track for reaching grand convergence and UHC will depend on (i) how quickly COVID-19 vaccines can be deployed in LICs and LMICs; (ii) how much additional public sector health financing can be mobilized from external and domestic sources; and (iii) whether countries can rapidly strengthen and focus their health delivery systems.

     

Evaluation of progress toward universal health coverage in Myanmar: A national and subnational analysis

BackgroundUniversal health coverage (UHC) encompasses 2 main components: access to essential healthcare services and protection from financial hardship when using healthcare. This study examines Myanmar’s efforts to achieve UHC on a national and subnational level. It is a primer of studying the concept of UHC on a subnational level, and it also establishes a baseline for assessing future progress toward reaching UHC in Myanmar.Methods and findingsThe study uses the Demographic and Health Survey (2015) and the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey (MLCS; 2017) and adapts a previously developed UHC index to provide insights into the main barriers preventing the country’s progress toward UHC. We find a negative correlation between the UHC index and the state/region poverty levels. The equity of access analysis reveals significant pro-rich inequity in access to all essential healthcare services. Socioeconomic status and limited availability of healthcare infrastructure are the main driving forces behind the unequal access to interventions that are crucial to achieving UHC by 2030. Finally, financial risk protection analysis shows that the poor are less likely to use healthcare services, and, once they do, they are at a greater risk of suffering financial catastrophe. Limitations of this study revolve around its correlational, rather than causal, nature.ConclusionsWe suggest a 2-pronged approach to help Myanmar achieve UHC: Government and state authorities should reduce the financial burden of seeking healthcare, and, coupled with this, significant investment in and expansion of health infrastructure and the health workforce should be made, particularly in the poorer and more remote states.

Zlatko Nikoloski and colleagues provide analytical insight into Myanmar’s efforts to achieve universal health coverage on a national and sub-national level.     

Evidence-based policymaking when evidence is incomplete: The case of HIV programme integration

Jan Hontelez and co-authors discuss the use of different types of evidence to inform HIV program integration.

Summary points

• Sustainable Development Goal 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages” and has set a target of achieving global universal health coverage, representing a major policy shift away from mostly disease-specific “vertical programmes”.
• While health service integration can be a promising strategy to improve healthcare coverage, health outcomes, and efficiency, the exact impact of integration in different settings is hard to predict, and policy makers need to choose from a large variety of integration strategies and opportunities with varying levels of scientific evidence.
• Using the case of health service integration for HIV in low- and middle-income countries, we outline implementation strategies for integration opportunities with lacking or scarce high-level causal evidence, based on existing frameworks and methodologies from within and beyond healthcare and implementation science.
• Proper use of scientific evidence in other contexts requires adequate and systematic assessments of the transportability of an intervention. Several methods exist that allow for judging transferability and comprehensively identifying key context-specific indicators across studies that can affect the reported impact of interventions.
• When (transferable) evidence is absent, we propose that by drawing on well-established design and implementation methodologies—underpinned by ongoing learning and iterative improvement of local service delivery strategies—countries could substantially improve decision-making even in the absence of scientific evidence.
• Reaching the goal of making the HIV response an integral part of a larger, universal, people-centred health system that meets the needs and requirements of citizens can be facilitated by applying lessons learned from implementation science and novel design methodologies.

     

Countdown to 2015: Tracking Maternal and Child Health Intervention Targets Using Lot Quality Assurance Sampling in Bauchi State Nigeria

Background

Improving maternal and child health remains a top priority in Nigeria’s Bauchi State in the northeastern region where the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and infant mortality rate (IMR) are as high as 1540 per 100,000 live births and 78 per 1,000 live births respectively. In this study, we used the framework of the continuum of maternal and child care to evaluate the impact of interventions in Bauchi State focused on improved maternal and child health, and to ascertain progress towards the achievement of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) 4 and 5.

Methods

At baseline (2012) and then at follow-up (2013), we randomly sampled 340 households from 19 random locations in each of the 20 Local Government Areas (LGA) of Bauchi State in Northern Nigeria, using the Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) technique. Women residents in the households were interviewed about their own health and that of their children. Estimated LGA coverage of maternal and child health indicators were aggregated across the State. These values were then compared to the national figures, and the differences from 2012 to 2014 were calculated.

Results

For several of the indicators, a modest improvement from baseline was found. However, the indicators in the continuum of care neither reached the national average nor attained the 90% globally recommended coverage level. The majority of the LGA surveyed were classifiable as high priority, thus requiring intensified efforts and programmatic scale up.

Conclusions

Intensive scale-up of programs and interventions is needed in Bauchi State, Northern Nigeria, to accelerate, consolidate and sustain the modest but significant achievements in the continuum of care, if MDGs 4 and 5 are to be achieved by the end of 2015. The intentional focus of LGAs as the unit of intervention ought to be considered a condition precedent for future investments. Priority should be given to the re-allocating resources to program areas and regions where coverage has been low. Finally, systematic considerations need to be given to the design of strategies that address the demand for health services.     

Did Equity of Reproductive and Maternal Health Service Coverage Increase during the MDG Era? An Analysis of Trends and Determinants across 74 Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Introduction

Despite widespread gains toward the 5^th Millennium Development Goal (MDG), pro-rich inequalities in reproductive health (RH) and maternal health (MH) are pervasive throughout the world. As countries enter the post-MDG era and strive toward UHC, it will be important to monitor the extent to which countries are achieving equity of RH and MH service coverage. This study explores how equity of service coverage differs across countries, and explores what policy factors are associated with a country’s progress, or lack thereof, toward more equitable RH and MH service coverage.

Methods

We used RH and MH service coverage data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 74 countries to examine trends in equity between countries and over time from 1990 to 2014. We examined trends in both relative and absolute equity, and measured relative equity using a concentration index of coverage data grouped by wealth quintile. Through multivariate analysis we examined the relative importance of policy factors, such as political commitment to health, governance, and the level of prepayment, in determining countries’ progress toward greater equity in RH and MH service coverage.

Results

Relative equity for the coverage of RH and MH services has continually increased across all countries over the past quarter century; however, inequities in coverage persist, in some countries more than others. Multivariate analysis shows that higher education and greater political commitment (measured as the share of government spending allocated to health) were significantly associated with higher equity of service coverage. Neither country income, i.e., GDP per capita, nor better governance were significantly associated with equity.

Conclusion

Equity in RH and MH service coverage has improved but varies considerably across countries and over time. Even among the subset of countries that are close to achieving the MDGs, progress made on equity varies considerably across countries. Enduring disparities in access and outcomes underpin mounting support for targeted reforms within the broader context of universal health coverage (UHC).     

Improving the health behaviours of elderly people: randomised controlled trial of a general practice education programme

ObjectivesTo establish the effect of an educational intervention for general practitioners on the health behaviours and wellbeing of elderly patients.DesignRandomised controlled trial with 1 year follow up.SettingMetropolitan general practices in Melbourne, Australia.Subjects42 general practitioners and 267 of their patients aged over 65 years.InterventionEducational and clinical practice audit programme for general practitioners on health promotion for elderly people.ResultsPatients in the intervention group had increased (a) walking by an average of 88 minutes per fortnight, (b) frequency of pleasurable activities, and (c) self rated health compared with the control group. No change was seen in drug usage, rate of influenza vaccination, functional status, or psychological wellbeing as a result of the intervention. Extrapolations of the known effect of these changes in behaviour suggest mortality could be reduced by 22% if activity was sustained for 5 years.ConclusionsEducation of the general practitioners had a positive effect on health outcomes of their elderly patients. General practitioners may have considerable public health impact in promotion of health for elderly patients.

Key messages

• Few educational interventions for doctors have shown benefit to the health of patients
• Elderly people were identified in the UK health initiatives as in need of additional attention, and levels of health protective behaviours were low in community surveys
• A multifaceted educational intervention for general practitioners was effective in improving walking behaviour, self rated health status, and the frequency of social contacts in elderly patients
• General practitioners are effective in improving health and health behaviours in their elderly patients

     

Assessing Coverage,Equity and Quality Gaps in Maternal and Neonatal Care in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Integrated Approach

BackgroundGaps in coverage, equity and quality of health services hinder the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals 4 and 5 in most countries of sub-Saharan Africa as well as in other high-burden countries, yet few studies attempt to assess all these dimensions as part of the situation analysis. We present the base-line data of a project aimed at simultaneously addressing coverage, equity and quality issues in maternal and neonatal health care in five districts belonging to three African countries.MethodsData were collected in cross-sectional studies with three types of tools. Coverage was assessed in three hospitals and 19 health centres (HCs) utilising emergency obstetric and newborn care needs assessment tools developed by the Averting Maternal Death and Disability program. Emergency obstetrics care (EmOC) indicators were calculated. Equity was assessed in three hospitals and 13 HCs by means of proxy wealth indices and women delivering in health facilities were compared with those in the general population to identify inequities. Quality was assessed in three hospitals using the World Health Organization’s maternal and neonatal quality of hospital care assessment tool which evaluates the whole range of aspects of obstetric and neonatal care and produces an average score for each main area of care.ResultsAll the three hospitals qualified as comprehensive EmOC facilities but none of the HCs qualified for basic EmOC. None of the districts met the minimum requisites for EmOC indicators. In two out of three hospitals, there were major quality gaps which were generally greater in neonatal care, management of emergency and complicated cases and monitoring. Higher access to care was coupled by low quality and good quality by very low access. Stark inequities in utilisation of institutional delivery care were present in all districts and across all health facilities, especially at hospital level.ConclusionOur findings confirm the existence of serious issues regarding coverage, equity and quality of health care for mothers and newborns in all study districts. Gaps in one dimension hinder the potential gains in health outcomes deriving from good performances in other dimensions, thus confirm the need for a three-dimensional profiling of health care provision as a basis for data-driven planning.     

Open questions and recent advances in the control of a multi‐host infectious disease: animal tuberculosis

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Closing the health equity gap: A role for implementation science?

Beryne Odeny discusses strategies to improve equity in health care and health research.

WHO defines health equity as “the absence of unfair and avoidable or remediable differences in health among population groups defined socially, economically, demographically, or geographically or by other means of stratification” [1]. Yet, contrary to this fundamental aspiration and the international mandate on universal health coverage (UHC), almost 50% of the world’s population does not receive needed health services, and progress toward health equity remains elusive [2].     

Scaled body‐mass index shows how habitat quality influences the condition of four fish taxa in north‐eastern Spain and provides a novel indicator of ecosystem health

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Future directions for HIV service delivery research: Research gaps identified through WHO guideline development

Nathan Ford and co-authors discuss the systematic identification of research gaps in improving HIV service delivery.

Summary points

• Improvements in HIV service delivery are key to bringing countries closer to achieving the target of ending AIDS as a public health threat and situating HIV treatment and care as part of universal healthcare coverage.
• The World Health Organization (WHO) guideline development process is recognized as one approach to identifying research gaps. Systematic reviews form the basis of recommendations formulated by an expert guideline development group, which is also tasked to identify research gaps.
• The 2021 WHO HIV Service Delivery Guideline process identified 27 research gaps grouped into 8 areas where more research is needed to support enhancement and implementation of the new recommendations across the cascade of care.
• Areas covered by the WHO Service Delivery Guideline include antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation outside the health facility, frequency of visits/refills, tracing and reengagement in care, assessing adherence, integration of HIV and sexual and reproductive health services, integration of HIV and diabetes and hypertension care, psychosocial interventions for adolescents, and task sharing of specimen collection and point-of-care testing.
• Key areas identified by the guideline process that could benefit from future research include tools to support ART initiation outside the health facility, outcomes of spacing of clinical visits/drug refills beyond 6 months, tailored support to minimize disengagement and support reengagement along the continuum of care, and accurate, feasible measures of adherence.
• Strategies of integration of HIV and sexual and reproductive health services and hypertension and diabetes care, costs and cost-effectiveness of psychological support interventions, the performance of newer point-of-care technologies by nonlaboratory personnel, and the impact of diagnostic integration across disease types were also identified as key areas that would benefit from future research.

     

Immune Signature Against Plasmodium falciparum Antigens Predicts Clinical Immunity in Distinct Malaria Endemic Communities

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Highlights

• •A predictive modelling framework has been established to analyze IgG antibody responses against a large panel of P. falciparum-specific antigens to identify a specific antigen signature of NAI.
• •An individual's immune status can be accurately predicted by measuring IgG responses against a small set of 15 defined parasite antigens.
• •Proteins identified in the 15-antigen signature represent potential candidates for next-generation malaria vaccines or biomarkers for monitoring the impact of malaria interventions.
• •The developed predictive framework can be adapted for developing novel surveillance and intervention tools for other infectious diseases.