| 利用GARP生态位模型预测日本松干蚧在中国的地理分布 |
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| 引用本文： | 李红梅,韩红香,薛大勇.利用GARP生态位模型预测日本松干蚧在中国的地理分布[J].昆虫学报,2005,48(1):95-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李红梅 韩红香 薛大勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院动物研究所,北京,100080;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039
2. 中国科学院动物研究所,北京,100080 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目 (KSCX1 SW 13 )，国家自然科学基金项目 (3 0 3 70 190 )，中国科学院知识创新工程领域前沿项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用GARP生态位模型预测分析了松属植物的重要入侵害虫日本松干蚧Matsucoccus
matsumurae（Kuwana）在中国的潜在地理分布。对现有分布地点的分析表明：日本松干蚧在
我国的扩散蔓延有三个主要阶段, 即零散分布期、逐步扩散期和迅速蔓延期。全国范围内的预测显示：该虫可以在中国27个省、市、自治区生存，主要集中在东北和东部沿海地区；在全国
扩散的趋势是向内陆发展。对辽宁省和吉林省地进一步预测分析验证了该方法的准确性，其蔓
延趋势与全国的预测结果相一致；同时还确定了6个高度危险区和13个影响该虫扩散的关键区。
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| 关 键 词： | 日本松干蚧 入侵种 松树 GARP模型系统（GMS） 分布预测 |
| 文章编号： | 0454-6296(2005)01-0095-06 |
Prediction of potential geographic distribution areas for the pine bark scale,Matsucoccus matsumurae (Kuwana) (Homoptera: Margarodidae) in China using GARP modeling system |
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| LI Hong-Mei,HAN Hong-Xiang,XUE Da-Yong.Prediction of potential geographic distribution areas for the pine bark scale,Matsucoccus matsumurae (Kuwana) (Homoptera: Margarodidae) in China using GARP modeling system[J].Acta Entomologica Sinica,2005,48(1):95-100. |
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| Authors: | LI Hong-Mei HAN Hong-Xiang XUE Da-Yong |
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| Affiliation: | LI Hong-Mei~ |
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| Abstract: | The pine bark scale, Matsucoccus matsumurae (Kuwana), is a major invasive pest of Pinus trees. Based on the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system (GMS), the potential geographic distribution of the scale in China were analyzed. The results indicated that the spreading of the scale in China underwent three main phases, i.e., sporadic distribution phase, gradually spreading phase and rapidly spreading phase. It was predicated that the population of the pine bark scale could be established in 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, especially in the northeast and the eastern coastal areas, and the expanding direction is upcountry in China. Further predictive analysis with Liaoning and Jilin provinces confirmed the precision of the method, and showed that the expanding direction was consistent with that of the countrywide, and 6 grand risk areas and 13 key areas for subsequent dispersion were further defined for the region. |
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| Keywords: | Matsucoccus matsumurae invasive species pine GMS predicted distribution |
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