Reinterpreting maximum entropy in ecology: a null hypothesis constrained by ecological mechanism |
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| Authors: | James P. O’Dwyer Andrew Rominger Xiao Xiao |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA;2. Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA;3. School of Biology and Ecology, and Senator George J. Mitchell Center for Sustainability Solutions, University of Maine, Orono, ME, USA |
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| Abstract: | Simplified mechanistic models in ecology have been criticised for the fact that a good fit to data does not imply the mechanism is true: pattern does not equal process. In parallel, the maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) has been applied in ecology to make predictions constrained by just a handful of state variables, like total abundance or species richness. But an outstanding question remains: what principle tells us which state variables to constrain? Here we attempt to solve both problems simultaneously, by translating a given set of mechanisms into the state variables to be used in MaxEnt, and then using this MaxEnt theory as a null model against which to compare mechanistic predictions. In particular, we identify the sufficient statistics needed to parametrise a given mechanistic model from data and use them as MaxEnt constraints. Our approach isolates exactly what mechanism is telling us over and above the state variables alone. |
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| Keywords: | Macroecology maximum entropy neutral ecology |
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